Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)
Discussion
Topgear gives Polestar 2 a glowing review.
https://www.topgear.com/car-reviews/polestar/2
Tesla better hurry up with its AI with the competition now launching their models. Offering a longer range isn't always going to be the deciding factor for buyers.
https://www.topgear.com/car-reviews/polestar/2
Tesla better hurry up with its AI with the competition now launching their models. Offering a longer range isn't always going to be the deciding factor for buyers.
Edited by hyphen on Wednesday 8th July 07:35
hyphen said:
Topgear gives Polestar 2 a glowing review.
https://www.topgear.com/car-reviews/polestar/2
Tesla better hurry up with its AI with the competition now launching their models. Offering a longer range isn't always going to be the deciding factor for buyers.
The propriatary charging network may just clinch it for Tesla drivers, that and the clear future roadmap for the car which seems to be lacking with Polestar, unless I'm missing it.https://www.topgear.com/car-reviews/polestar/2
Tesla better hurry up with its AI with the competition now launching their models. Offering a longer range isn't always going to be the deciding factor for buyers.
Edited by hyphen on Wednesday 8th July 07:35
RobDickinson said:
Looks like a great car, bit of an odd almost suv shape but should sell well
Shape in general works for me, but the wheel size / ride height is a bit too much into crossover territory for my taste. VW actually a bit the same even with the non SUV cars on MEB. E.g. El-Born and ID3 look a bit more "SUVy" than say an e-Golf. Not sure if this is a packaging choice or more market driven as consumers really seem to insist on that %Z&§%& raised seating position. Sigh...Basic EV tech of the PS2 seems solid and from initial reviews very well executed. Nothing to worry Tesla much I think, but what could be a risk is the Android Auto OS. IMVHO that was a very clever move by Polestar. Depending on how much Google is pushing things / how reliable they are as partner, this could overtake the Infotainment part of the Tesla software rather quickly. Let's see if this will force Tesla to open their platform up more.
RobDickinson said:
Tesla could add android auto in about a week if they wanted to I think.
I wonder about scale and profit for the polestar2, can they make a lot of them and are they making any money on them at all?
Be nice to see one here but I doubt we will until much later into next year at least.
I think scale and profit should be achievable for them as they are already experienced.I wonder about scale and profit for the polestar2, can they make a lot of them and are they making any money on them at all?
Be nice to see one here but I doubt we will until much later into next year at least.
Swedish design with Chinese tech does appear to be a killer combo though.
RobDickinson said:
Tesla could add android auto in about a week if they wanted to I think.
Probably less 
. The Auto OS seen here seems to offer deeper integration into the car thouigh. Way I understand it is basically Google doing the entire ICE stack, from Nav to Audio to voice recognition -- and app store. If the later would allow 3rd party developers to interact with the car in a useful way, things could get interesting. Need to read up a bit on that. Also wondering if Apple is going to follow at some point...Tesla European outlook from a more subjective source but interesting numbers the less.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4357563-teslas-br...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4357563-teslas-br...
coetzeeh said:
Tesla European outlook from a more subjective source but interesting numbers the less.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4357563-teslas-br...
This is particularly interesting https://seekingalpha.com/article/4357563-teslas-br...
document said:
The permit documents now indicate only Model Y production, whereas the previous documents referred to both Model 3 and Model Y
The production numbers have been buried under covid, but I've been wondering if the Model 3 is going to be accepted as a stepping stone to the car they wanted to produce (or, more harshly, a misstep). This could be important, as Tesla needs to break out of being in essence a "one model" company and have a range of offerings if they're going to continue to grow their market share.Doubly important when the competition are platform sharing and producing interesting variations on a model to tempt different buyers.
Tuna said:
The production numbers have been buried under covid, but I've been wondering if the Model 3 is going to be accepted as a stepping stone to the car they wanted to produce (or, more harshly, a misstep). This could be important, as Tesla needs to break out of being in essence a "one model" company and have a range of offerings if they're going to continue to grow their market share.
I've always thought the same, I though they did it for different reasons though.Everybody knows that an "SUV" bodyshape is what the crowd demands, so I though Tesla steered away from that mass market and attack the more niche premium sedan before going "mass market".
As for the single model/more models. Do they really have to? SUV's cover over 40% of new car sales. The Qashqai and Cayenne both saved their brands from bankruptcy, as a single model.
Did Audi really have to make the 5dr A5? Sure, people buy it because looks newer than the A4. But all this seems to just confuse people.
Samsung was creating dozens of different smartphone models while Apple had only one for a long time. Who did better in market share and profits back then?
ZesPak said:
As for the single model/more models. Do they really have to? SUV's cover over 40% of new car sales. The Qashqai and Cayenne both saved their brands from bankruptcy, as a single model.
Did Audi really have to make the 5dr A5? Sure, people buy it because looks newer than the A4. But all this seems to just confuse people.
If Tesla are going to remotely justify their share price, they have to be a complete car company - that means a range of models at a range of price points, rather than the 'flavour of the day' premium products. That's why Porsche is part of the VW group and so on.Did Audi really have to make the 5dr A5? Sure, people buy it because looks newer than the A4. But all this seems to just confuse people.
Equally, if they're going to genuinely dominate the market, they need a low cost 'car for the masses' - not a marketing executive's commuter wagon.
So long as they remain with a single model responsible for the majority of their sales, they are at risk of someone else coming out with the 'next cool thing'. If something did seriously impact the sales of the Model Y, then actually the title of this thread could be true. It's not very likely, but this is where the risk is.
ZesPak said:
Fixed that for you.
They're never going to sell the number of cars to justify the share price. That's not what this share prices is based on either.
I'll confess I don't see the value in being a robotaxi company.They're never going to sell the number of cars to justify the share price. That's not what this share prices is based on either.
There are fewer than a quarter of a million taxis in the UK - that's a bit more than half a percent of the total number of cars on the road. If you imagine a complete social shift to shared car ownership (which I think is fanciful), one car might reasonably be expected to service say ten 'subscribers'. Either way, the absolute number of cars needed to service the demand is a fraction of the current fleet.
So Tesla is in a bind - you can't be the size of Toyota if the market is a tiny fraction of the current fleet. Worse still, the moment people can become robotaxi owners 'at will', you flood the market - remember it just needs a fraction of a percent of the current fleet to service our entire national demand. So the 'value' of a taxi is quite fragile. A flooded market means heavy price competition, which means margins are crushed.
But Tesla cannot afford to build its own fleet, so it's heavily dependent on private owners jumping into bear that cost. That's the same set of private owners who will be faced with paper thin margins the moment the market can be addressed. Why should I spend tens of thousands of pounds on a car that will be trashed and puked in, for a few pounds a week return?
I can see the logic that there are millions of car journeys a day, and capturing just a small fee on each one would be a massive source of revenue - but this is the logic of a bubble, not a rational analysis of how the market can go from where it is now, to some future vision of shared, subscription based transport.
Tuna said:
I'll confess I don't see the value in being a robotaxi company.
Less and less people are interested in driving or owning a car.A fleet of -lets say- Model Y, that might cost them 30k to produce. Asking 50c / mile. Making these cars actually do 1000000 miles...
If you could summon a car through an app, anywhere at any time, that'll take you to any destination at a rate similar to that, A LOT of people, especially newer generation, will never own a car again.
If you do, for example 5k miles/year, that'll be 2500 GBP/year. Try running a car off of that including insurance, tax, depreciation. Not to mention consumables and repairs.
It literally is a trillion dollar business. A pipe dream for now, but a trillion dollar business nonetheless.
Tuna said:
ZesPak said:
As for the single model/more models. Do they really have to? SUV's cover over 40% of new car sales. The Qashqai and Cayenne both saved their brands from bankruptcy, as a single model.
Did Audi really have to make the 5dr A5? Sure, people buy it because looks newer than the A4. But all this seems to just confuse people.
If Tesla are going to remotely justify their share price, they have to be a complete car company - that means a range of models at a range of price points, rather than the 'flavour of the day' premium products. That's why Porsche is part of the VW group and so on.Did Audi really have to make the 5dr A5? Sure, people buy it because looks newer than the A4. But all this seems to just confuse people.
Equally, if they're going to genuinely dominate the market, they need a low cost 'car for the masses' - not a marketing executive's commuter wagon.
So long as they remain with a single model responsible for the majority of their sales, they are at risk of someone else coming out with the 'next cool thing'. If something did seriously impact the sales of the Model Y, then actually the title of this thread could be true. It's not very likely, but this is where the risk is.
They only compete in the premium space, they don’t even sell trucks which Tesla have on their roadmap.
ZesPak said:
Cheeses of Nazareth said:
I have read that 3 times and it makes no sense either way.
Hotpoint would want to sell me a new washing machine as often as they could.
I don't know how his point was that relevant, but in his scenario they don't they want you to pay per wash. So they have all the benefits giving you a machine that lasts.Hotpoint would want to sell me a new washing machine as often as they could.
It's the same with printers, companies getting fed up with printers not working so they rent them and pay per print. The company that puts out the printers/coffee machines/whatever has all the benefit having a machine that lasts as long as possible. VS the company that sells you a printer...
Same goes with cars, it's a well known fact that many dealers don't make that much money on selling a car rather than maintaining it.
If Tesla is serious about becoming a huge (robo)taxi company, they have all the reasons to make cars that last.
Imagine being able to charge 50p per mile (less than half what an uber costs). For a million miles.
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