Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)

[hyphen]

paua said:

Most valuable car Co. in the world has their hand in my (taxpayer) pocket - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/123134...

Rob Dickinson has disappeared from here, are you paying for him to be on furlough from his Tesla PR job?

[hyphen]

The Hummer EV pickup can move all wheels indepenently, to move diagonally like a crab. All Tesla have to offer on their pickup is bullet proof glass that doesn't work.

EV CrabWalk or Cybertruck?

https://www.pistonheads.com/news/ph-ev/11-500lb-ft...

[Gandahar]

https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/4E7BR9_TSLA_Q3_...


Revenue $8.7b rather than expected $8.2-8.4b
Earnings $331m rather than $500m or so.

Regulatory credits $397m.


So if you remove those then Tesla made a LOSS

AGAIN.....

Energy generation and storage quite good though at first glance ...


Need to read further.

Edited by Gandahar on Wednesday 21st October 21:44

[Burwood]

Again-as expected. Tough business. I’ll be listening to musks fsd comments-tomorrow, yep it’s coming

[anonymous-user]

Presumably tesla knows how many pollution credits are coming each quarter and plans accordingly. If it had none coming, it could cut capex or something to achieve a similar outcome

But if you know free money is coming, may as well take advantsge

[Gandahar]

Corrected my earlier revenues, $8.7 rather than $7.6b in figures above.....

So revenues higher than expected, profits lower.

[Gandahar]

So in summary, ignoring the $397m in handouts paid in and ignoring the $543M paid out to Elon...


==> Gandahar gets his trusty abacus out-------

$477m profit.

Maybe ....



looking at the cars, the S and X sector for Tesla is holding up well so far for old cars that still are awaiting the mid life update such as plaid etc.

Solar is still looking poor compared to storage deployments .. 57 MW ? That's crap compared to Elons promises. His solar roof etc is a dead duck it seems so far.

From tesla


Shanghai
Model 3 production capacity has increased to 250,000 units a year. We reduced the
price of Model 3 to 249,900 RMB after incentives, making it the lowest-price
premium mid-sized sedan1
in China. This was enabled both by lower-cost batteries
and an increased level of local procurement. As a result of this shift in cost and
starting price, we recently added a third production shift to our Model 3 factory. [/b]

They reduced the price, still can't sell them in China, so sending them expensively around the world to Europe now

[SWoll]

hyphen said:

The Hummer EV pickup can move all wheels indepenently, to move diagonally like a crab. All Tesla have to offer on their pickup is bullet proof glass that doesn't work.

EV CrabWalk or Cybertruck?

https://www.pistonheads.com/news/ph-ev/11-500lb-ft...

200 KwH battery,

As impressive as the Rivian R1S with 4 motors doing tank turns?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzwM8KE2L3I

[hyphen]

hyphen said:

A change to add additonal tests may perhaps be required with regards to the above, but under current EURO NCAP and equivelent tests in other markets, EV's are up there alongside the best of ICE Volvo (for the occupants).

ID3 results released today by NCAP...
link

[hyphen]

ID3 results released today by NCAP...
link

Smaller car so less of a rating to be expected overall.

Edited by hyphen on Wednesday 21st October 23:35

[gangzoom]

Waymo is now running a limited FSD service in Atlanta I think.

Elon appears to have pulled something out of the bag for Tesla but without Lidar.

Very very early days but am suddenly very excited about the AP 3.0 and MCU2 retrofit our 2017 car is booked in for......If Musk has really pulled off FSD, Tesla stock is surely only just starting to take off?!

Am actually quite shocked how good the visualisation is even in the dark, cra cra.

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tes...

https://twitter.com/brandonee916/status/1319126180...

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/fsd-rewrit...

Edited by gangzoom on Thursday 22 October 06:39

[Tuna]

The timing is immaculate. Don't think about our earnings report! Jam tomorrow!

"As we continue to collect data over time, the system will become more robust"

What have you been doing for the last five years?

[gangzoom]

Tuna said:

The timing is immaculate. Don't think about our earnings report! Jam tomorrow!

"As we continue to collect data over time, the system will become more robust"

What have you been doing for the last five years?

Have you actually seen the footage of the AP rewrite, remarkable doesn't describe it.

I've been very critical of Tesla been able to deliver on FSD, but Musk seem to be delivering. I've just filled in a W-8 form so I can go ahead and actually get some Tesla stock. FSD is going to change the way we view personal transportation, been able to do it without complex sensors like Lidar and using a CPU that isn't much bigger than a Chromebook is the scalable in a way the Waymo demo cars just aren't.

Though I fear am probably too late on the Tesla stock already, I suspect its going to rocket up from this point. Oh well at least I have a car with FSD all paid for, so life isn't that bad .

https://twitter.com/i/status/1319149428091932674

Edited by gangzoom on Thursday 22 October 08:37

[anonymous-user]

FSD does seem to have taken a step forward.

I wonder how it changes Navigant's development leaderboard visualisation (this one from March 2020)

[EddieSteadyGo]

gangzoom said:

Have you actually seen the footage of the AP rewrite, remarkable doesn't describe it.

I've been very critical of Tesla been able to deliver on FSD, but Musk seem to be delivering. I've just filled in a W-8 form so I can go ahead and actually get some Tesla stock. FSD is going to change the way we view personal transportation, been able to do it without complex sensors like Lidar and using a CPU that isn't much bigger than a Chromebook is the scalable in a way the Waymo demo cars just aren't.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1319149428091932674

I think you are falling for some of the hype. Let's review what we know;

The Q3 results were very good. They have a healthy margin on their cars, which should mean they can reduce prices as necessary to continue increasing the market size.

The problem is that the share price is already astronomical. If over a year they earn $1-2 per share (which would be excellent), it would still take many decades to make your money back.

On self driving, I personally think their approach of not using detailed maps is a dead-end. How many traffic lights arrangements do you come across which are sometimes a little confusing, particularly at night? Quite a few imo. There are so many obstacles like this which all prevent FSD from working.

The new visualisations though are cool, and this new beta software is clearly a big improvement over the old version. But once this beta software becomes more widely available, I suspect we will see some of the old limitations still present.

[gangzoom]

JPJPJP said:

FSD does seem to have taken a step forward.

I wonder how it changes Navigant's development leaderboard visualisation (this one from March 2020)

Waymo is always going to be the leader, why wouldn't they be, Google has the best AI software talent on the planet. Their recent robotaxi service shows that the AI software is amazingly there, and able to deliver real world driving without a human in a real world setting with normal people rather than just a tech demo show.

https://youtu.be/tBJ0GvsQeak

However if you look at that Waymo car you can almost see the $$$$$ of sensor hardware/CPU power on it. I have no idea why it sounds so loud from the outside, probably just air-con, but also probably the air-con cooling all the extra hardware. Tesla appears to have mimicked what Waymo can do but with hardware thats already fitted to all their production cars since December 2016 - with a simply swap of the main CPU needed for older cars. That CPU is easy to access and I see no reason why Tesla cannot upgrade it even more in future if needed - its the silver box above the cabin air filter, takes about 5 minutes to get access.

If you combine Waymo software capability AND cheap hardware its an unbelievable combination......if Tesla can do FSD with our cars existing hardware, its utterly nuts.

[gangzoom]

EddieSteadyGo said:

How many traffic lights arrangements do you come across which are sometimes a little confusing, particularly at night? Quite a few imo. There are so many obstacles like this which all prevent FSD from working.

Have you seen the footage - all of which is from last night because thats when it went 'live'. I had virtually zero hope of Tesla delivering FSD, but action speaks louder than words. Unless Tesla has staged every single video coming out about the latest FSD software it really is a massive leap in the the right direction, and really not far off what the ultimate aim is, remove the human element from driving.

[EddieSteadyGo]

gangzoom said:

EddieSteadyGo said:

How many traffic lights arrangements do you come across which are sometimes a little confusing, particularly at night? Quite a few imo. There are so many obstacles like this which all prevent FSD from working.

Have you seen the footage - all of which is from last night because thats when it went 'live'. I had virtually zero hope of Tesla delivering FSD, but action speaks louder than words. Unless Tesla has staged every single video coming out about the latest FSD software it really is a massive leap in the the right direction, and really not far off what the ultimate aim is, remove the human element from driving.

Yes, I have seen some of the footage. I'm not suggested the footage has been staged - I suspect though most of the people who received the early beta are Tesla enthusiasts and might want to showcase the new changes in a positive light.

As we know, whether FSD "works" or not is all about the edge cases - we know the physical limitations of the cameras. And we know road layouts are not always intuitive - often they can be confusing, even for experienced drivers - road markings can be faded, arrangements of traffic lights can be illogical or complicated.

For me, the way you tackle this is with detailed maps, and you restrict the self driving capability to the areas where you are certain you know the road layout and traffic signals. This dramatically reduces the level of complexity for the AI - it then just needs to concentrate on the things which are moving.

[Burwood]

EddieSteadyGo said:

gangzoom said:

Have you actually seen the footage of the AP rewrite, remarkable doesn't describe it.

I've been very critical of Tesla been able to deliver on FSD, but Musk seem to be delivering. I've just filled in a W-8 form so I can go ahead and actually get some Tesla stock. FSD is going to change the way we view personal transportation, been able to do it without complex sensors like Lidar and using a CPU that isn't much bigger than a Chromebook is the scalable in a way the Waymo demo cars just aren't.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1319149428091932674

I think you are falling for some of the hype. Let's review what we know;

The Q3 results were very good. They have a healthy margin on their cars, which should mean they can reduce prices as necessary to continue increasing the market size.

The problem is that the share price is already astronomical. If over a year they earn $1-2 per share (which would be excellent), it would still take many decades to make your money back.

On self driving, I personally think their approach of not using detailed maps is a dead-end. How many traffic lights arrangements do you come across which are sometimes a little confusing, particularly at night? Quite a few imo. There are so many obstacles like this which all prevent FSD from working.

The new visualisations though are cool, and this new beta software is clearly a big improvement over the old version. But once this beta software becomes more widely available, I suspect we will see some of the old limitations still present.

Most fail to notice-800M earnings BEFORE Musk stock compensation. 311m after. And this split goes on and on for years. He is the biggest shareholder, it's nothing but sheer greed and the shareholders are the paymaster.

FSD is nothing but hype.

The result without tax hand outs was a LOSS of $66M.

Impressive execution but remember that they do have 15B in the bank to get stuff done. Generally I'm unimpressed by this circa 500B company.

[Tuna]

gangzoom said:

Have you actually seen the footage of the AP rewrite, remarkable doesn't describe it.

I've been very critical of Tesla been able to deliver on FSD, but Musk seem to be delivering. I've just filled in a W-8 form so I can go ahead and actually get some Tesla stock. FSD is going to change the way we view personal transportation, been able to do it without complex sensors like Lidar and using a CPU that isn't much bigger than a Chromebook is the scalable in a way the Waymo demo cars just aren't.

Though I fear am probably too late on the Tesla stock already, I suspect its going to rocket up from this point. Oh well at least I have a car with FSD all paid for, so life isn't that bad .

https://twitter.com/i/status/1319149428091932674

Edited by gangzoom on Thursday 22 October 08:37

In the shots that have been shared so far of the re-write, I'm not seeing what everyone else is seeing, it appears.

After years of development, three hardware revisions and a complete re-write, they've got a system that can achieve (hesitant) positioning on empty, visually uncluttered and clearly marked streets. In the dark! This is not FSD.

I quote from Tesla's release notes:

Tesla said:

It may do the wrong thing at the worst time, so you must always keep your hands on the wheel and pay extra attention to the road. Do not become complacent.

This is so completely not FSD, it's a joke. It may lead to FSD years down the road, but this is not FSD.