Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)

[anonymous-user]

Tuna said:

off_again said:

So yeah, while the narrator likes to give a very optimistic view of what this is doing, it is FAR from close to what you would expect. And seriously, if a cop spotted you drive like that on the road, you would be pulled over. Traffic and moving violations, poor lane discipline and very odd driving in general - that is instant 'they are driving impaired' and an instant pull over and roadside check.

This is perhaps the biggest concern - that they have judged it sensible to release a potentially dangerous system for use by the public, who don't know enough about the software to understand where and when it might fail.

A lot of people expect AI driven systems to be "obviously robotic", and so ascribe all sorts of human behaviour when it doesn't. The reality is that this sort of software can appear surprisingly natural in it's reactions, whilst also getting things very wrong.

Makes you question the ethics of the company.

[Brother D]

jsf said:

lothianJim said:

Some states have 14 year old learner permits. Is this much more hazardous?

Yes.

I was driving on skid pans with police instructors when at school years before I could have a licence, I was flying aged 13 and flew solo at 16.
I'd trust a supervised kid no problem compared to the current self drive technology.

If you are trying to compare US to UK driving standards just don't. The driving test is little more than drving around the block in the US. My sales manager said he hit a car reversing, and they still passed him. (The US has 4-5 times the death and injury rates on the roads vs UK, and I see a crash pretty much daily in my area).

This was yesterday - car driving the wrong way down a street crashed into an audi. I used to send crash pics to my mates back home because I just couldn't get over how many car crashes there are everyday.

[lothianJim]

Cruise just posted a 75 minute ride, sped up with commentary. Solid driving choices, which shows the main obstacle to general fsd is 3d mapping. The driving problems listed above are pretty trivial to overcome if you have accurate enough maps.


I can’t copy YouTube links on my phone but it’s on the cruise YouTube channel.

The Tesla update is interesting largely because of the leap in 3d visualisation on display.

Re ethics. Not sure it’s something to boast about, but I’m surprised people care that much about the ethics. We are not talking high levels of suffering here.

[gangzoom]

Order66 said:

I would wager that FSD will not come on this hardware - I don't think the cameras/processing power are genuinely up to the job. They would have to be significantly under-utilising the current processor to have the headroom it needs for software to make up the difference they will need.

By all accounts the current software is hardly taxing the AP3 processor. It appears Tesla was busy trying to recruit engineer to work on using visual input to replicate distance prediction of LIDAR.

https://youtu.be/hx7BXih7zx8

There is also speculation even the current FSD beta software isn't using the latest Neural network techniques, which Waymo will be running on their cars.

Either way this is all cutting edge tech, to have access to it on a car any member of the public can buy is pretty nuts, let alone one made in 2016 (post CPU upgrade). If you are a nerd (which I am), this is fascinating stuff.

https://ai.googleblog.com/2017/08/transformer-nove...

Edited by gangzoom on Friday 23 October 22:20

[Tuna]

lothianJim said:

Cruise just posted a 75 minute ride, sped up with commentary. Flawless driving, which shows the main obstacle to general fsd is 3d mapping. The driving problems listed above are pretty trivial to overcome if you have accurate enough maps.

Not true. Maps don't tell you about lane closures, diversions, road works, debris in the road, potholes, black ice, temporary road works, flooding and all the other unexpected changes to driving conditions. If FSD is relying on maps to tell it what to do in those unexpected situations, then it will make poor decisions.

And that's assuming you can have accurate enough maps the rest of the time. The recent release of Flight Simulator 2020 has been very instructive in that respect - vast amounts of the world mapped in unprecedented detail, and then wildly inaccurate information in the most unexpected places.

https://www.theverge.com/2020/8/20/21376978/micros...

[anonymous-user]

lothianJim said:

.

Re ethics. Not sure it’s something to boast about, but I’m surprised people care that much about the ethics. We are not talking high levels of suffering here.

Think about that for a second.

You don't release beta level autonomy software to the general public to test on the public highway. It makes them and all around them guinea pigs.
It's a proper dhead thing to do.
FFS!

[lothianJim]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

I think you are in the minority here. I don’t believe most people mind. Many are supportive. I understand UK is keen up the pace of testing of experimental driving tech on Uk roads.

I don’t know the stats but I’m guessing there are more dangerous (and far less cool) driving practices that we tolerate.

Edited by lothianJim on Friday 23 October 23:36

[off_again]

lothianJim said:

Some states have 14 year old learner permits. Is this much more hazardous?

Yes and no. Some states do allow earlier learning due to situation and circumstances. For example in rural communities you have the option to allow them to drive on the road briefly in farm equipment and limited journeys to and from a specific location.

California for example does allow dispensation for those who can’t get a school bus to drive to and from school. But that’s it. Of course they drive around elsewhere, but get caught and it’s a hefty fine and ban.

And yes the ‘behind the wheelI’ tests aren’t that difficult. But they do have re-enforced tested (computer) and depending on any traffic convictions, actually forced retakes of the test. Doesn’t come close to European standards, but not as bad as it might seem.

The death rate as mentioned is also shocking. Usually due to some sort of situation though. So drink driving (yeah it’s bad here), distracted driving and general bad driving causing a lot of it. And don’t forget that they don’t have the same crash test regs here. A pickup truck (full size) is classified as a truck and hence exempt from passenger car crash regulations.

Stop signs and red lights are also some of the most dangerous situations here.

[NDNDNDND]

lothianJim said:

I think you are in the minority here. I don’t believe most people mind. Many are supportive. I understand UK is keen up the pace of testing of experimental driving tech on Uk roads.

I don’t know the stats but I’m guessing there are more dangerous (and far less cool) driving practices that we tolerate.

Edited by lothianJim on Friday 23 October 23:36

Actually, I think you're probably in the minority here. Most ordinary people are extremely wary and suspicious of this technology.

Judging by the videos shown so far, the technology is impressive but the driving is still sketchy. And bear in mind these snippets are only going to show the system at its best - these 'carefully selected drivers' aren't going to upload to Twitter a video of them grabbing the steering wheel to stop it veering into oncoming traffic!

Given how erratic it is, and that you have to keep your hands on the wheel and maintain vigilance at all times, it looks easier at the moment to just drive the damn car yourself.

[off_again]

NDNDNDND said:

Actually, I think you're probably in the minority here. Most ordinary people are extremely wary and suspicious of this technology.

Judging by the videos shown so far, the technology is impressive but the driving is still sketchy. And bear in mind these snippets are only going to show the system at its best - these 'carefully selected drivers' aren't going to upload to Twitter a video of them grabbing the steering wheel to stop it veering into oncoming traffic!

Given how erratic it is, and that you have to keep your hands on the wheel and maintain vigilance at all times, it looks easier at the moment to just drive the damn car yourself.

Good point, there will always be an explicit bias involved in these situations. Tesla Raj, the guy who has posted the most on the new beta openly promotes his discount codes on his YouTube channel - nice discount for those who are buying, but importantly though, he makes money on those referrals - well makes points that can be traded in for Tesla products, some have even got free cars! So there is an incentive to keep the ball rolling. Who doesn’t want a free car with a bit of effort.

And don’t forget that those who are posting up YouTube videos make money on the views also. This is both positive and negative stances, but mainly positive. It’s in their interest to post up lots of videos that get views, engagement and advertising revenue. Free money for shilling a product indirectly. Even saw a video about a UK based Youtuber who has done a bunch of videos that has effectively paid for his Tesla in a year. And he’s not getting millions of views (down to the algorithm and engagement). So can we get honest and unbiased reviews and commentary? It’s tough and while you are supposed to be honest about what you are doing, legally most posters don’t declare what the background is and where they make the money.

And that’s before the careful screening that might be in place. Rich Rebuilds lost his referral discounts and points for posting honest commentary and videos, so it’s clear that Tesla monitors this type of thing carefully. They are ultimately controlling the narrative here. Even if it’s not visible.

[gangzoom]

off_again said:

So can we get honest and unbiased reviews and commentary?

https://youtu.be/BJquJp1L0hI

Also don't forget the difference with what Tesla is doing versus Waymo is the size of the fleet. The only way you will experience Waymo FSD is in a Waymo owned car in one city, Tesla FSD code will be coming to every car Tesla has made since end of 2016.

There is no hiding places for Elon and his FSD claims anymore, but it appears he is delivering what was promised.

[gangzoom]

NDNDNDND said:

Actually, I think you're probably in the minority here. Most ordinary people are extremely wary and suspicious of this technology.

Your quite right, my wife is damn terrified of the FSD beta videos I showed her last night. She was even more terrified when I showed her the AP software team explaining how this new software is/was essentially written by machines with virtually no human input.

From a tech point of view am like a kid in a candy shop. We have been hearing about neural networks changing our lives for what feels like decades now, and finally we are seeing some results.

Is this all driven by the revelation DeepMind demonstrated a few years ago that Neural Networks perform best WITHOUT human input?? Who knows, but it feels like AI is about to kick off the next step of technological transformation.

The implications of ture Robotaxis on society is so huge is hard to comprehend, beyond that though if we accept AI can 'drive' better and safer than humans what else can or should it do better than humans......and if an AI is better at the job a human is currently doing what are humans going to end up doing??

Pandora's box is about to be opened and I don't think any of us knows whats really coming out!! I personally cannot wait to see how its going to change the world.

Edited by gangzoom on Saturday 24th October 06:01

[gangzoom]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

The tech is clearly coming, its not going away that's for sure.

You either put your head in the sand, and pretend nothings changing or you work out how to use to your advantage.

Many traditional business have been struggling even pre COVID, any business who don't or cannot embrace the tech revolution that is already here and about to take one massive leap is dead in the water.

The UK as a whole need to be leading from the front on tech like this, DeepMind is a UK company, and is the Jewel in Googles very large crown. We have the talent in this country to change the world, not realising that talent with out dated legislation is the real crime.

[anonymous-user]

It's not about sticking your head in the sand and denying progress.
It's about ethics and decency when you're going about that progress.

Don't confuse the two things.

[gangzoom]

Links to full 40 minute uncut videos.....

Commuting to work at JPL in a FSD car, whilst half the world is living on less than $10/day, madness on so many levels.

https://teslanorth.com/2020/10/23/tesla-full-self-...

Edited by gangzoom on Saturday 24th October 07:41

[anonymous-user]

If the autonomous cars communicate with each other it will be a massive help as the number of them on the road increases

Picture a load of cars approaching a crossroads from all 4 directions. If they can all tell each other where they are going, they can sort out among themselves a way of doing it so no vehicle has to stop and the traffic flow is smoother and faster

[gangzoom]

JPJPJP said:

If the autonomous cars communicate with each other it will be a massive help as the number of them on the road increases

Picture a load of cars approaching a crossroads from all 4 directions. If they can all tell each other where they are going, they can sort out among themselves a way of doing it so no vehicle has to stop and the traffic flow is smoother and faster

Oh even more amazing every car can 'see' what other cars can. Imagine been able to tell the drivers on the opposite lanes on M way you just passed an accident 1 mile ago, so either take the next exit to avoid the jam or start slowing down.

If car could 'share' vision on a massive scale you woudlnt even need mapping data or even traffic lights/controls, as every car will navigate around each other in the most optimal way.

The amount of AI needed to process that amount of information I suspect is decades away, but why woudlnt it be possible? If you follow through the ramifications of this tech, its hard to fathom what the world would look like.

The key enabler is the AI neural networks, if they can really do what we think they can do. Autonomous driving is simply the match to light the rest of the bonfire, after all if cars can drive themselves whats next??

https://theconversation.com/saving-lives-by-lettin...

Edited by gangzoom on Saturday 24th October 07:58

[SWoll]

gangzoom said:

Links to full 40 minute uncut videos.....

Commuting to work at JPL in a FSD car, whilst half the world is living on less than $10/day, madness on so many levels.

https://teslanorth.com/2020/10/23/tesla-full-self-...

Edited by gangzoom on Saturday 24th October 07:41

?

[Witchfinder]

lothianJim said:

I think you are in the minority here. I don’t believe most people mind. Many are supportive. I understand UK is keen up the pace of testing of experimental driving tech on Uk roads.

Until your kid goes under the wheels of a Tesla at a pedestrian crossing.

The insurance industry disagrees with you too.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/oct/23/uk...

Edited by Witchfinder on Saturday 24th October 09:05

[lothianJim]

Witchfinder said:

Until your kid goes under the wheels of a Tesla at a pedestrian crossing.

The insurance industry disagrees with you too.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/oct/23/uk...

Edited by Witchfinder on Saturday 24th October 09:05

Hmm... I think we need to differentiate between closely supervised ‘hands on’ fsd beta . And fully hands off testing.

From the article

atthew Avery, Thatcham’s director of research, said that while insurers were happy for ALKS to be classified as assisted driving – where the car’s input is always ultimately controlled by a human driver – there were “huge legal and liability problems” as well as safety issues with a system where the driver would relinquish control

There is no prospect of fsd beta relinquishing full control in next year or so. I would argue you are ‘borrowing’ risk from a similar, but different, Scenario.

The transition will be blended and gradual.