Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)
Discussion
I'm not that severe on their outlook, they clearly currently have more capacity in their factories than they have demand but long term they are aiming to grow demand to meet the capacity. The stock has always been volatile and any poor results or missed targets normally result in people bailing though.
That's the game they're playing, the expected demand just may not come or may come much, much slower than they plan for. Any of this or upsets in supply chain, product delays etc... will affect the shares especially now they're in the S&P where investors have to scrutinise every aspect of the company and it's performance not just rely on Tesla's own predictions.
They've grown too big to play the same old games they have in the past and get away with it for much longer.
To be fair to their CEO he made this point in his own way at the last investor day but saying that they might go backwards before going forwards and by not selling a sales target for this year.
All in my humble opinion of course.
That's the game they're playing, the expected demand just may not come or may come much, much slower than they plan for. Any of this or upsets in supply chain, product delays etc... will affect the shares especially now they're in the S&P where investors have to scrutinise every aspect of the company and it's performance not just rely on Tesla's own predictions.
They've grown too big to play the same old games they have in the past and get away with it for much longer.
To be fair to their CEO he made this point in his own way at the last investor day but saying that they might go backwards before going forwards and by not selling a sales target for this year.
All in my humble opinion of course.
"Gates all but admitted that he has been shorting Tesla’s stock..."
Bill said:
Well, you know, I think Tesla is an amazing company. I wish I’d owned or been more on the long side (laugh), but it’s great. I have lots of relatives that own Teslas that I helped buy for them so nothing but positive thoughts about Tesla and its role.
jjwilde said:
I missed a day due to work and the thread seems to have gone retarded but yes kids, sounds like Tesla & Bitcoin are surely going to zero this time 
Let us all know when it happens (in the real world, not your w
k fantasy).
Missed a day due to work?Let us all know when it happens (in the real world, not your w
k fantasy).I thought you had made so much money from Tesla and Bitcoin you never needed to work again
Smiljan said:
Tesla are closing down production in California for at least two weeks.
I wonder if this is in part why the SR Model Y was launched, sold and then yanked within just a six week period. Better to sell the more profitable unsold inventory models than to manufacture Model Y SR with little profit.
Clearly something has happened, but local news popped up saying that Tesla have just had approval to build another tented production-line facility in their car park. Seems strange to close things down and expand the production line. Odd. Dont know what is going on there.Bloomberg article said:
The California plant is still the most important part of Tesla’s vehicle-production base, with capacity to make an estimated 600,000 vehicles a year. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk also has opened a plant near Shanghai and is constructing facilities outside Berlin and in Texas.
Tesla has cut the price of its various models 14 times in markets including China, Japan and France this year, raising some analysts’ doubts that it has enough demand to meet its goals.
“When considering Tesla had excess inventory in the fourth quarter of 2020, and has never been able to sell-out its production capacity, we see the company as currently demand constrained, rather than production constrained,” GLJ Research LLC founder Gordon Johnson wrote in a note earlier this week.
Staff are not being paid for 4 days of the shutdown to save money. They can chose to book leave for those 4 days instead. The remainder of the shutdown they will still be paid.Tesla has cut the price of its various models 14 times in markets including China, Japan and France this year, raising some analysts’ doubts that it has enough demand to meet its goals.
“When considering Tesla had excess inventory in the fourth quarter of 2020, and has never been able to sell-out its production capacity, we see the company as currently demand constrained, rather than production constrained,” GLJ Research LLC founder Gordon Johnson wrote in a note earlier this week.
I wonder if this is in part why the SR Model Y was launched, sold and then yanked within just a six week period. Better to sell the more profitable unsold inventory models than to manufacture Model Y SR with little profit.
off_again said:
Clearly something has happened, but local news popped up saying that Tesla have just had approval to build another tented production-line facility in their car park. Seems strange to close things down and expand the production line. Odd. Dont know what is going on there.
Hmm sound more like they want to close it temporary, maybe to renew some stuff in there?Smiljan said:
hyphen said:
Missed a day due to work?
I thought you had made so much money from Tesla and Bitcoin you never needed to work again
Found some photos of JJI thought you had made so much money from Tesla and Bitcoin you never needed to work again
I was looking at ARK whilst over on the financial thread, but thought I would post here. ARK may go bust, or suffer hardships being so tied to Tesla, but Tesla will not go bust anytime soon.
This did make me laugh though -
Top 10 market capitalised companies in the world.
Only one doesn't make $1b profit per quarter.....
In fact, without credit handouts, one hardly makes a profit.
What bubble
Can the Tesla fan boys and Cathie Woods keep inflating that bubble? She put in a lot of money last week to "buy the dip" .
Other investers in Tesla have reduced the number of eggs in the basket, she keeps adding more.
Interesting to watch
This did make me laugh though -
Top 10 market capitalised companies in the world.
Only one doesn't make $1b profit per quarter.....
In fact, without credit handouts, one hardly makes a profit.
What bubble
Can the Tesla fan boys and Cathie Woods keep inflating that bubble? She put in a lot of money last week to "buy the dip" .
Other investers in Tesla have reduced the number of eggs in the basket, she keeps adding more.
Interesting to watch
Lim said:
"Gates all but admitted that he has been shorting Tesla’s stock..."
Bill is clever like Obama and Elon is non clever like Trump, who he behaves like in tweets and real life.Bill said:
Well, you know, I think Tesla is an amazing company. I wish I’d owned or been more on the long side (laugh), but it’s great. I have lots of relatives that own Teslas that I helped buy for them so nothing but positive thoughts about Tesla and its role.
Smiljan said:
I'm not that severe on their outlook, they clearly currently have more capacity in their factories than they have demand but long term they are aiming to grow demand to meet the capacity. .
Tesla were clever in making more shares when at the top to pay for factories.But now with an ever increasing number of EV players in 2021 / 22 they instead buy an entire factory worth of bitcoins?
How is that forward thinking against zee Germans ???????
Clive Milk said:
Lim said:
"Gates all but admitted that he has been shorting Tesla’s stock..."
Bill is clever like Obama and Elon is non clever like Trump, who he behaves like in tweets and real life.Bill said:
Well, you know, I think Tesla is an amazing company. I wish I’d owned or been more on the long side (laugh), but it’s great. I have lots of relatives that own Teslas that I helped buy for them so nothing but positive thoughts about Tesla and its role.
Don't forget that tweet from Musk cost $40 million in fines and he laughed it off saying it was worth it. That's how obscene his personal wealth is. $40 million for joke yet won't pay workers during factory shutdowns.
I'm beginning to think Tesla fans are like Trump fans. Ignorant to the truth.
Edited by Smiljan on Friday 26th February 15:46
hyphen said:
The non clever Elon has achieved a lot. Must have god on his side
To be fair he has done the task of Hercules to get not one but 2 large companies to be very good in their respective fields and pushed the boundaries, in EV cars and space.He's still a man who's universe revolves around himself rather than the sun. He's never heard of Copernicus.....
ZesPak said:
Clive Milk said:
Bill is clever like Obama and Elon is non clever like Trump, who he behaves like in tweets and real life.
Clive Milk said:
How is that forward thinking against zee Germans ???????
Forgive me for asking, but how old are you?That's changed since I started writing that of course
Why do you ask?
Smiljan said:
Clive Milk said:
Lim said:
"Gates all but admitted that he has been shorting Tesla’s stock..."
Bill is clever like Obama and Elon is non clever like Trump, who he behaves like in tweets and real life.Bill said:
Well, you know, I think Tesla is an amazing company. I wish I’d owned or been more on the long side (laugh), but it’s great. I have lots of relatives that own Teslas that I helped buy for them so nothing but positive thoughts about Tesla and its role.
Don't forget that tweet from Musk cost $40 million in fines and he laughed it off saying it was worth it. That's how obscene his personal wealth is. $40 million for joke yet won't pay workers during factory shutdowns.
I'm beginning to think Tesla fans are like Trump fans. Ignorant to the truth.
Edited by Smiljan on Friday 26th February 15:46
That has not obviously happened. Why the SEC , or Suck Elon's Cock, as he said later in a tweet, has not cracked down is nobody's guess.,
He's since pumped up crypto after buying them ... how is that not market manipulation??????
The $420 going private tweet seems small fry in comparison with hindsight. He really is the Gerald Ratner crossed with Asil Nadir...
The difference is his star is still rising ...
Wait till it falls
Edited by Clive Milk on Friday 26th February 16:02
I see his personality as directly comparable to Trump, his behavior is similar, his attitude to any regulation or rule he doesn't like is the same, any time his mouth gets him in trouble he runs to the expensive lawyers to weasel his way out without apologising.
He leads his followers into attacking anyone and anything that is in competition with or perceived as a threat to his business interests of public personality. He's even recently told newspapers to say hello to their "puppet masters" when articles were written he doesn't agree with.
Add to that the use of a personal twitter account as a business interest manipulation tool along with leaked emails that keep miraculously appearing just when there's bad news to hide.
Now where before have we seen someone who tries to repress the free press, denies COVID even after catching it, slanders others of good standing and then lawyers up to defend himself and surrounds himself with sycophants?
This is why I attempt to see through the humongous piles of horse excrement surrounding any "news" about Tesla get to some semblance of the truth. The stock price is testament to his attitude and his actions in a similar way that Trump still manages to collect millions of voters slips. Blind to the truth and lacking any real alternative they seek the herd and the safety of the circular reinforcement it provides and seem incapable of thinking any differently.
When Musk goes on a comedians radio show interview and says his new car will hover 6ft using compressed air, people actually publish articles like its news and that they can't wait. Somehow his flippant, joke remarks become real to them.
As much as one person with drive can get amazing things done, they can also easily undo it all when they go a little bit loopy. I genuinely hope that doesn't happen to Tesla. I hope instead they can put off a miracle and grow the company into something better.
He leads his followers into attacking anyone and anything that is in competition with or perceived as a threat to his business interests of public personality. He's even recently told newspapers to say hello to their "puppet masters" when articles were written he doesn't agree with.
Add to that the use of a personal twitter account as a business interest manipulation tool along with leaked emails that keep miraculously appearing just when there's bad news to hide.
Now where before have we seen someone who tries to repress the free press, denies COVID even after catching it, slanders others of good standing and then lawyers up to defend himself and surrounds himself with sycophants?
This is why I attempt to see through the humongous piles of horse excrement surrounding any "news" about Tesla get to some semblance of the truth. The stock price is testament to his attitude and his actions in a similar way that Trump still manages to collect millions of voters slips. Blind to the truth and lacking any real alternative they seek the herd and the safety of the circular reinforcement it provides and seem incapable of thinking any differently.
When Musk goes on a comedians radio show interview and says his new car will hover 6ft using compressed air, people actually publish articles like its news and that they can't wait. Somehow his flippant, joke remarks become real to them.
As much as one person with drive can get amazing things done, they can also easily undo it all when they go a little bit loopy. I genuinely hope that doesn't happen to Tesla. I hope instead they can put off a miracle and grow the company into something better.
Smiljan said:
I see his personality as directly comparable to Trump, his behavior is similar, his attitude to any regulation or rule he doesn't like is the same, any time his mouth gets him in trouble he runs to the expensive lawyers to weasel his way out without apologising.
He leads his followers into attacking anyone and anything that is in competition with or perceived as a threat to his business interests of public personality. He's even recently told newspapers to say hello to their "puppet masters" when articles were written he doesn't agree with.
Add to that the use of a personal twitter account as a business interest manipulation tool along with leaked emails that keep miraculously appearing just when there's bad news to hide.
Now where before have we seen someone who tries to repress the free press, denies COVID even after catching it, slanders others of good standing and then lawyers up to defend himself and surrounds himself with sycophants?
This is why I attempt to see through the humongous piles of horse excrement surrounding any "news" about Tesla get to some semblance of the truth. The stock price is testament to his attitude and his actions in a similar way that Trump still manages to collect millions of voters slips. Blind to the truth and lacking any real alternative they seek the herd and the safety of the circular reinforcement it provides and seem incapable of thinking any differently.
When Musk goes on a comedians radio show interview and says his new car will hover 6ft using compressed air, people actually publish articles like its news and that they can't wait. Somehow his flippant, joke remarks become real to them.
As much as one person with drive can get amazing things done, they can also easily undo it all when they go a little bit loopy. I genuinely hope that doesn't happen to Tesla. I hope instead they can put off a miracle and grow the company into something better.
That's an excellent post. I guess that means it matches my world view He leads his followers into attacking anyone and anything that is in competition with or perceived as a threat to his business interests of public personality. He's even recently told newspapers to say hello to their "puppet masters" when articles were written he doesn't agree with.
Add to that the use of a personal twitter account as a business interest manipulation tool along with leaked emails that keep miraculously appearing just when there's bad news to hide.
Now where before have we seen someone who tries to repress the free press, denies COVID even after catching it, slanders others of good standing and then lawyers up to defend himself and surrounds himself with sycophants?
This is why I attempt to see through the humongous piles of horse excrement surrounding any "news" about Tesla get to some semblance of the truth. The stock price is testament to his attitude and his actions in a similar way that Trump still manages to collect millions of voters slips. Blind to the truth and lacking any real alternative they seek the herd and the safety of the circular reinforcement it provides and seem incapable of thinking any differently.
When Musk goes on a comedians radio show interview and says his new car will hover 6ft using compressed air, people actually publish articles like its news and that they can't wait. Somehow his flippant, joke remarks become real to them.
As much as one person with drive can get amazing things done, they can also easily undo it all when they go a little bit loopy. I genuinely hope that doesn't happen to Tesla. I hope instead they can put off a miracle and grow the company into something better.
Well written though, your type writer is on fire today !It is now the year since Elon wrote this -
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/12360294490421...
and then he made his workforce go back to work even whilst breaking Californian laws. His SpaceX guys in Texas kept working with no regard and nobody has ever took them up on them due to it being "to infinity and beyond" and the feel good factor.
The problem with Tesla is that they are a one man company, remove him (like Tesla has done over years including most of the founders) and the cult of Elon would make a stock collapse, which would be a shame.
There is one solution. Apple buys them out, gets rid of Elon and puts in sensible Tim Cook.
Apple have the technology for full self driving, and maybe, one day iTaxis !!!
You heard it here first.
PS Elons "Covid is dumb " tweet got 1.5 million likes. Hmmmmm
Edited by Clive Milk on Friday 26th February 16:57
Smiljan said:
Great observations and sensible stuff....
What is interesting is that I think I have a good view on the American view on all of this. Its subtle, but its different to how others look at it all. Americans want there to be success. Its the American Dream really - immigrant to the US makes money, builds businesses and employs people, builds American brands and does (currently) dominate the world with their products. All good.Unlike the British view on things, the rise to success is applauded. But, the difference here is that its the fall, or more likely the stumble that will be dramatic. Everyone cheers a rising stock market, but once it starts to fall, out come the highly paid lawyers and their class action suits. Tesla stock might be volatile at the moment, but its still well above what it really should be. When the bubble bursts, Musk and Tesla will be tied up in court for years to come. Just look at the situation in Texas with the power outages - as soon as power is returning and people are getting their variable rate bills, out come the class action law suits. No one complained before, because power was cheep and plentiful. Now its not so much, its all gone legal very quickly.
Class action law suits are usually very costly, take a long time and from what I understand, rarely succeed. But its used as a punishment for the company in question. Most end up in some sort of out of court settlement and massive censure for those involved. Musk isnt helping himself here. Take Apple and the current Epic Games court case. Could be a massively impactful case, but Tim Cook is silent on the matter - just getting on with business and doing his best to let the lawyers do their thing. A completely different strategy to Musk, who likes to put himself front and center of everything. Will be interesting to see how this pans out and what the outcome is. But an old CEO I used to work with (build a $500m business, went IPO and then sold the business - so has some experience, not the best, but some) made a comment years ago - his key to success - "build a business, make some money, dont get sued". Funny thing is, he made a bad decision, got sued and then fired by the board. Currently living his life on early retirement as a result.
off_again said:
Smiljan said:
Great observations and sensible stuff....
What is interesting is that I think I have a good view on the American view on all of this. Its subtle, but its different to how others look at it all. Americans want there to be success. Its the American Dream really - immigrant to the US makes money, builds businesses and employs people, builds American brands and does (currently) dominate the world with their products. All good.Unlike the British view on things, the rise to success is applauded. But, the difference here is that its the fall, or more likely the stumble that will be dramatic. Everyone cheers a rising stock market, but once it starts to fall, out come the highly paid lawyers and their class action suits. Tesla stock might be volatile at the moment, but its still well above what it really should be. When the bubble bursts, Musk and Tesla will be tied up in court for years to come. Just look at the situation in Texas with the power outages - as soon as power is returning and people are getting their variable rate bills, out come the class action law suits. No one complained before, because power was cheep and plentiful. Now its not so much, its all gone legal very quickly.
Class action law suits are usually very costly, take a long time and from what I understand, rarely succeed. But its used as a punishment for the company in question. Most end up in some sort of out of court settlement and massive censure for those involved. Musk isnt helping himself here. Take Apple and the current Epic Games court case. Could be a massively impactful case, but Tim Cook is silent on the matter - just getting on with business and doing his best to let the lawyers do their thing. A completely different strategy to Musk, who likes to put himself front and center of everything. Will be interesting to see how this pans out and what the outcome is. But an old CEO I used to work with (build a $500m business, went IPO and then sold the business - so has some experience, not the best, but some) made a comment years ago - his key to success - "build a business, make some money, dont get sued". Funny thing is, he made a bad decision, got sued and then fired by the board. Currently living his life on early retirement as a result.
Check the stock price for Boeing since 2019 considering all that has happened with the 737 Max, the problems with the 787, one of their biggest leasers complaining :-
https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/boeing-must-ge...
The 777X next gen having issues with engines and still not flying in 2021 when it was supposed to be 2019 and their current 777 with P&W engines being grounded in the USA and Japan mainly.
And yet it is currently 3x the price even after the crash one year back.
Stock market crash, not one of their planes. Just to make that clear.
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