Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)
Discussion
Greggsybabe said:
Burwood said:
Unless they sold a while back then as of today they are about 150M in the hole on their coin play.
I've seen mixed things, including someone who claimed to have found Tesla's BTC wallet that had been emptied but nothing concrete enough to say either way. I would have assumed that as a company asset they would need to report its current value but then didn't they junk it up with some other figures last time so who knows if it will be shown clearly.I assume they are still going to say they are production constrained due to capacitors/supply chain despite there being plenty of photo's of standing stock in America and China now having to export due to lack of domestic demand. They will no doubt distract with the Plaid launch and Elon is already pulling his usual misdirection talking about having a supercomputer/self learning presentation day which I'm sure will be as bright as the last battery day.
It's hard to see the stock not falling in price but I honestly think too many people still have too much money wrapped up in Tesla for it to just plummet, the investors will fight it to the bitter end because they stand to lose so much money otherwise.
Yesterday I watched a review of the Q4 etron. It's a very good car and a threat to the Model Y no doubt. The Germans are here and are going to eat Teslas lunch. I have little doubt
Burwood said:
Yesterday I watched a review of the Q4 etron. It's a very good car and a threat to the Model Y no doubt. The Germans are here and are going to eat Teslas lunch. I have little doubt
To each their own; I can’t stand modern Audi interiors - the dashes remind me of old hifi.I’d love a TMX but can’t quite justify it. Am waiting for the TMY.
Burwood said:
They did revalue it but recorded as a Credit (deferred rev) on the balance sheet with a PNL recognition on sale. Any impairment even unrealised IS recorded on the PNL. A conservative policy but either way as of today they are in the Red.
The impairment for this quarter is guaranteed and will be north of $120 million. They declare the loss at the lowest BTC price for the quarter no matter what. To declare any gains they only do this when the sell.I still don't understand BTC or why Tesla even dabbled with $1.5bn worth of their reserves on it. It seems to me to be some sort of professional gambling / hustle.
Tesla China is hurting, sales not what they were predicting. VW are also struggling there with the ID4 in line with what VW expected but not exactly a sales hit. Different being VW will release 3 more models there this year and can keep improvising. Tesla are stuck with the Model 3 and it's bigger sister. Nothing else.
I'm still not seeing the masterplan part 2 - no semi, no truck, no roadster, no FSD, no "Model 2". Nothing but more and more white model 3's and Y's.
What is their future? Where's the plan B if the new battery tech doesn't come along?
The new factories will both be finished within a year, will there actually be products and demand for those products when they're finished?
I get they have long term plans and there are bumps in the road but this year is looking pretty awful for the company.
Burwood said:
Yesterday I watched a review of the Q4 etron. It's a very good car and a threat to the Model Y no doubt. The Germans are here and are going to eat Teslas lunch. I have little doubt
Are they? their software is still 5-10 years behind (the packaging of the GT is as appalling bad as the taycan)What will be more interesting is how long their batteries / motors last. Telsa have billions of real world miles driven over 10+ years and the durability improvement from the gen 1 batteries to the gen 3 is substantial (95/97% SoC after 100k miles on avg).
This is a monumental amount of free beta testing
https://lexfridman.com/tesla-autopilot-miles-and-v...
I really want the EV6 GT it solves all the niggles I have with my Tesla but in the back of my mind is how good long term is their green tech, can they offer the faultless monthly updates and new features, Cam mode, the brilliant app, everything just works ...
Edited by Dave Hedgehog on Wednesday 23 June 15:46
Dave Hedgehog said:
Burwood said:
Yesterday I watched a review of the Q4 etron. It's a very good car and a threat to the Model Y no doubt. The Germans are here and are going to eat Teslas lunch. I have little doubt
Are they? their software is still 5-10 years behind (the packaging of the GT is as appalling bad as the taycan)What will be more interesting is how long their batteries / motors last. Telsa have billions of real world miles driven over 10+ years and the durability improvement from the gen 1 batteries to the gen 3 is substantial (95/97% SoC after 100k miles on avg).
This is a monumental amount of free beta testing
https://lexfridman.com/tesla-autopilot-miles-and-v...
I really want the EV6 GT it solves all the niggles I have with my Tesla but in the back of my mind is how good long term is their green tech, can they offer the faultless monthly updates and new features, Cam mode, the brilliant app, everything just works ...
Edited by Dave Hedgehog on Wednesday 23 June 15:46
Burwood said:
When looking at mass adoption as opposed to the rich techie market, software whilst important is not really an issue. It hasn't stopped the Golf 8 selling and it's terrible. As an aside where do you pluck '10 years behind' from. That's hyperbole, surely. And even if not, VW are pretty much exactly where they want to be. After all, every EV they sell is accretive to earnings. If they wanted to 'catch up' they could but need to balance the two sides of their business. On the things that matter, Tesla have quality issues, few model options and lack the infrastructure to support their customer base.
Tesla has many many problems along with the good stuff thats for sure and why i would move to the right carCurrently they have excellent depreciation and the ID3 seams to attract big discounts so it will be interesting to see if VW makes money on them
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/new...
Dave Hedgehog said:
Burwood said:
When looking at mass adoption as opposed to the rich techie market, software whilst important is not really an issue. It hasn't stopped the Golf 8 selling and it's terrible. As an aside where do you pluck '10 years behind' from. That's hyperbole, surely. And even if not, VW are pretty much exactly where they want to be. After all, every EV they sell is accretive to earnings. If they wanted to 'catch up' they could but need to balance the two sides of their business. On the things that matter, Tesla have quality issues, few model options and lack the infrastructure to support their customer base.
Tesla has many many problems along with the good stuff thats for sure and why i would move to the right carCurrently they have excellent depreciation and the ID3 seams to attract big discounts so it will be interesting to see if VW makes money on them
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/new...
If Tesla was valued at 50B I wouldn't care so much. My comments are made as they relate to a 600B bubble. I don't think they could even find buyers for all the cars they could make if the two new plants came on line this year. German is conveniently delayed
I can't believe someone actually said Tesla tech just works 
This is a company that had to be forced to recall cars to replace faulty MCU's, had battery management systems so bad that they had to cripple charge speeds and a lane keeping system that gets spooked by shadows and can't see stationary fire trucks, police cars or even walls
Lets face it, a car that needs constant software updates from build really isn't that well designed.
This is a company that had to be forced to recall cars to replace faulty MCU's, had battery management systems so bad that they had to cripple charge speeds and a lane keeping system that gets spooked by shadows and can't see stationary fire trucks, police cars or even walls
Lets face it, a car that needs constant software updates from build really isn't that well designed.
Smiljan said:
I can't believe someone actually said Tesla tech just works
This is a company that had to be forced to recall cars to replace faulty MCU's, had battery management systems so bad that they had to cripple charge speeds and a lane keeping system that gets spooked by shadows and can't see stationary fire trucks, police cars or even walls
Lets face it, a car that needs constant software updates from build really isn't that well designed.
Indeed, as an owner, the software is simply sThis is a company that had to be forced to recall cars to replace faulty MCU's, had battery management systems so bad that they had to cripple charge speeds and a lane keeping system that gets spooked by shadows and can't see stationary fire trucks, police cars or even walls
Lets face it, a car that needs constant software updates from build really isn't that well designed.
t. They are skating by on quirkiness and hype - quality is simply appalling on all fronts, especially software.Dave Hedgehog said:
Are they? their software is still 5-10 years behind (the packaging of the GT is as appalling bad as the taycan)
Mmm, not so sure about that and others have commented on this also. I would agree that they are close to, or at the cutting edge on some of the battery management, power delivery (charge and discharge) and embedded system software. But 5-10 years? Yeah, thats not correct. They have suffered a number of issues over the years and its well know that the software is buggy, inconsistent and requires constant updates to remain useful. Its easy to overlook for those used to constant updates and working around issues. But as the buyer changes from the tech-savvy to the general user, you can see that there are more and more reports of poor software.
Oh, and if you have been following it, its well known in tech circles that the back-end systems for Tesla are terrible. A number of ex-Tesla employees have indicated that their 'cloud services' are really not that and its unreliable, unpredictable and built on sticking tape and hope. Oh, and its crashed multiple times! And thats before we even get to the security aspects, which has been reported upon multiple times.
Dave Hedgehog said:
What will be more interesting is how long their batteries / motors last. Telsa have billions of real world miles driven over 10+ years and the durability improvement from the gen 1 batteries to the gen 3 is substantial (95/97% SoC after 100k miles on avg).
It is clear that EV's are more reliable than alternatives, which is great. I will agree that their battery management and charging software is good. I wouldnt necessarily say its the best, since the feedback from Hyundai / Kia seems to indicate that they are very close, if not better. But have you checked out what was required to get their earlier models to the 500k+ miles? The Model X that was touted as the highest mileage EV for a while - well it went through 3 motors, a couple of battery packs and so on. Other than replacing the body, pretty much everything else has been replaced at least once, if not twice! Is it better than an ICE? Yeah, and what we are seeing is that the Model 3 is good and solid with some excellent engineering in it. But it still suffers reliability issues and it should be top of the charts, but isnt yet. Hopefully Tesla can kick this and really deliver on their promises.
Dave Hedgehog said:
I really want the EV6 GT it solves all the niggles I have with my Tesla but in the back of my mind is how good long term is their green tech, can they offer the faultless monthly updates and new features, Cam mode, the brilliant app, everything just works ...
I know a lot of people talk about 'here come the Germans', but I am really interested to see what the South Korean brands can do. Its well know their current models are pretty much bang-on for range, efficiency, reliability, customer service etc - just lack a little 'zing' in the design and desirability side. They are now addressing this and I really cant wait to see what they come up with in the next couple of years. They have come a LONG way in recent years and they have pretty much got the model sorted.Hell, I noticed on my social media feed - Genesis is launching their new shooting brake at Goodwood - who would have thunk it? The Koreans are coming and they have some pretty damn good cars!
off_again said:
Dave Hedgehog said:
Are they? their software is still 5-10 years behind (the packaging of the GT is as appalling bad as the taycan)
Mmm, not so sure about that and others have commented on this also. I would agree that they are close to, or at the cutting edge on some of the battery management, power delivery (charge and discharge) and embedded system software. But 5-10 years? Yeah, thats not correct. They have suffered a number of issues over the years and its well know that the software is buggy, inconsistent and requires constant updates to remain useful. Its easy to overlook for those used to constant updates and working around issues. But as the buyer changes from the tech-savvy to the general user, you can see that there are more and more reports of poor software.
Oh, and if you have been following it, its well known in tech circles that the back-end systems for Tesla are terrible. A number of ex-Tesla employees have indicated that their 'cloud services' are really not that and its unreliable, unpredictable and built on sticking tape and hope. Oh, and its crashed multiple times! And thats before we even get to the security aspects, which has been reported upon multiple times.
Dave Hedgehog said:
What will be more interesting is how long their batteries / motors last. Telsa have billions of real world miles driven over 10+ years and the durability improvement from the gen 1 batteries to the gen 3 is substantial (95/97% SoC after 100k miles on avg).
It is clear that EV's are more reliable than alternatives, which is great. I will agree that their battery management and charging software is good. I wouldnt necessarily say its the best, since the feedback from Hyundai / Kia seems to indicate that they are very close, if not better. But have you checked out what was required to get their earlier models to the 500k+ miles? The Model X that was touted as the highest mileage EV for a while - well it went through 3 motors, a couple of battery packs and so on. Other than replacing the body, pretty much everything else has been replaced at least once, if not twice! Is it better than an ICE? Yeah, and what we are seeing is that the Model 3 is good and solid with some excellent engineering in it. But it still suffers reliability issues and it should be top of the charts, but isnt yet. Hopefully Tesla can kick this and really deliver on their promises.
Dave Hedgehog said:
I really want the EV6 GT it solves all the niggles I have with my Tesla but in the back of my mind is how good long term is their green tech, can they offer the faultless monthly updates and new features, Cam mode, the brilliant app, everything just works ...
I know a lot of people talk about 'here come the Germans', but I am really interested to see what the South Korean brands can do. Its well know their current models are pretty much bang-on for range, efficiency, reliability, customer service etc - just lack a little 'zing' in the design and desirability side. They are now addressing this and I really cant wait to see what they come up with in the next couple of years. They have come a LONG way in recent years and they have pretty much got the model sorted.Hell, I noticed on my social media feed - Genesis is launching their new shooting brake at Goodwood - who would have thunk it? The Koreans are coming and they have some pretty damn good cars!
Burwood said:
Agreed re Kia etc. I never thought id ever consider one but I like what Korea is producing and their pipeline. Efficient and reliable.
They've been efficient and reliable for a long time now.The electrification have given them a chance to jump on it and take a head start.
The IONIQ 5 will tempt many e-tron Q4 and Model Y customers away.
EddieSteadyGo said:
I must admit, I wish I could use google's software in my model 3. It is far ahead of Tesla imho.
I do wonder if Tesla's long term inability to play nice with others / drive for independence will hurt them more than help. Between the relationships with Panasonic for the batteries, wanting to do all their own FSD tech rather than out sourcing, all their own software for the cars, the energy divisions they have a lot going on. Yeah sure if it all works out you could argue it would give them a huge advantage over others but there seems a lot of risk between company bloat, lack of direction etc. There has to be a reason why most other manufacturers are happy to out-source and just "partner" up with tech companies such as VW with Rivian.And right on time...
So not only is the battery technology Tesla keep parading not even at the stage where the manufacturer is willing to commit to investing in production lines but Tesla don't even have an exclusivity deal, even short term? So if these things are a significant leap, it won't be long (in manufacturing terms) until they are found in other OEM's?
So not only is the battery technology Tesla keep parading not even at the stage where the manufacturer is willing to commit to investing in production lines but Tesla don't even have an exclusivity deal, even short term? So if these things are a significant leap, it won't be long (in manufacturing terms) until they are found in other OEM's?
Greggsybabe said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
I must admit, I wish I could use google's software in my model 3. It is far ahead of Tesla imho.
I do wonder if Tesla's long term inability to play nice with others / drive for independence will hurt them more than help. Between the relationships with Panasonic for the batteries, wanting to do all their own FSD tech rather than out sourcing, all their own software for the cars, the energy divisions they have a lot going on. Yeah sure if it all works out you could argue it would give them a huge advantage over others but there seems a lot of risk between company bloat, lack of direction etc. There has to be a reason why most other manufacturers are happy to out-source and just "partner" up with tech companies such as VW with Rivian.tty build quality and constant delays. They are spreading themselves too thin. All companies have core competencies and they don't tend to stray far from that. It's far smarter for VAG to buy gearboxes from ZF than produce their own. ZF is the expert, can do a far better job, cheaper overall and the quality is certain.EddieSteadyGo said:
I must admit, I wish I could use google's software in my model 3. It is far ahead of Tesla imho.
While the Tesla infotainment system has come a long way with support for a number of apps and pretty good integration, I still dont really understand why they dont support CarPlay and Android Auto. Its taken some time, but both systems offer seamless options to utilize all of the common apps they need with a constant upgrade path - even the voice control works on both platforms!I think what a couple of manufacturers are doing is genius though. I think Dodge did it first with their Ram trucks, but I think a couple of others do it now:
The ability to split a large screen, provide the easy to use on-screen phone integration AND also provide the other screen functions is fantastic! I see this as the way forward for many manufacturers. I know the usual argument is that manufacturers, including Tesla, want to keep users in their ecosystem (charging etc), but with the constant updating of the phone systems, back-end systems and mapping data, its a difficult battle to fight. I understand that Tesla uses the Google system from the back-end, but its never going to be as good as Google Maps directly.
From a software point of view though, Tesla is bringing more and more complexity to their infotainment systems though. App Stores, integration with third party games (still dont believe that Cyberpunk 2042 will make it to a Tesla - how are they going to bring a game that requires at least 70GB space to install?) - why do this? It is only going to be more complex, expensive and difficult to develop, and do you really want to take on Apple and Google in this market? Got to think that more and more bugs will appear!
Why not just play nice?
EddieSteadyGo said:
Order66 said:
Indeed, as an owner, the software is simply st. They are skating by on quirkiness and hype - quality is simply appalling on all fronts, especially software.
I must admit, I wish I could use google's software in my model 3. It is far ahead of Tesla imho.t. They are skating by on quirkiness and hype - quality is simply appalling on all fronts, especially software.However i agree AA and CP are vastly better user experiences because your media and data follows you about from device to device
Musk in many ways is like Microsoft, this is how 'X' is used and there is no possabilty that anyone else would use it differently, a lot of their design ethos is based on self driving that a) is a long long way off b) many owners dont care about. You can see this with the utterly rediculous steering wheel and gear change system in the plaid.
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