Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)

Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)

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hyphen

26,262 posts

89 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2021
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RobDickinson said:
If you think it's retail investors pushing up the cap by $95bn in a day your crazier than I thought.
Not directly, but I would imagine indirectly perhapsm

Retail wont have 95bn, but they will be the profit source that drives the big boys to come and seek a return.

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

253 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2021
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Burwood said:
A lot of waffle. No question Tesla are more efficient, currently. I make it 26% GM. And? Oh. 1.2T right. Average age of Chinese workers 20 years younger. And? Maybe the older ones are for the scrap heap. I always find it interesting when the subjective waffle comes out and the hard numbers bypassed. Tesla battery cost is what, $85/kw/h? VW is $90, big deal.

If say in 10 years things have grown and you can expect, i dunno maybe a reliable income stream. What i'm asking is how much money is it reasonable to expect this business to generate. tax paid, options paid, net in the tin? 20B, 30B, 50B? And if anyone has some thought let's have some numbers, car sales, FSD, rob taxi assumptions. Saying Cos Tesla. $5000.
Are you OK, do you need medical assistance?

Burwood

18,709 posts

245 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2021
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RobDickinson said:
Burwood said:
A lot of waffle. No question Tesla are more efficient, currently. I make it 26% GM. And? Oh. 1.2T right. Average age of Chinese workers 20 years younger. And? Maybe the older ones are for the scrap heap. I always find it interesting when the subjective waffle comes out and the hard numbers bypassed. Tesla battery cost is what, $85/kw/h? VW is $90, big deal.

If say in 10 years things have grown and you can expect, i dunno maybe a reliable income stream. What i'm asking is how much money is it reasonable to expect this business to generate. tax paid, options paid, net in the tin? 20B, 30B, 50B? And if anyone has some thought let's have some numbers, car sales, FSD, rob taxi assumptions. Saying Cos Tesla. $5000.
Are you OK, do you need medical assistance?
It not aimed at you-back in your box wink

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

253 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2021
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Lots of people have done the maths.

But they all make significant assumptions, because you have too. Most allow their bias/feels to colour that somewhat.

The bears that Tesla will fail, or fail to execute, the competition will arrive and that Tesla is just a car company


The bulls obviously take a different stance.go listen to Cathy, SMR or whoever.

So far the bears have fked up so hard it's easy to suspect they've been paid to be so bad.



TameBritishMuslim

172 posts

74 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2021
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Burwood said:
A lot of waffle. No question Tesla are more efficient, currently. I make it 26% GM. And? Oh. 1.2T right. Average age of Chinese workers 20 years younger. And? Maybe the older ones are for the scrap heap. I always find it interesting when the subjective waffle comes out and the hard numbers bypassed. Tesla battery cost is what, $85/kw/h? VW is $90, big deal.

If say in 10 years things have grown and you can expect, i dunno maybe a reliable income stream. What i'm asking is how much money is it reasonable to expect this business to generate. tax paid, options paid, net in the tin? 20B, 30B, 50B? And if anyone has some thought let's have some numbers, car sales, FSD, rob taxi assumptions. Saying Cos Tesla. $5000.
GM's was around 11% last year and they (like other 'traditional' auto makers) have massive debts.

I've indicated what my thesis is and why. I also have conducted my own research and have put together my own models which include all aspects of the business that I've alluded to and more, to 2030. I'm not about to publish them on here but I have put my money where my mouth is and thus far, it's working for me. It could, of course, crash and burn but it didn't during a pandemic so I think I'll take my chances.

I assume you've done your own research and modelling and cannot make it work and that's fine, however, If things go remotely to plan then I believe Tesla will be a multi-trillion dollar company by 2030.

Burwood

18,709 posts

245 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2021
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Jog on mate.

TameBritishMuslim

172 posts

74 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2021
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Burwood said:
Jog on mate.
Your responses to me say a lot about you, 'mate'.

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

253 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2021
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Hey thats my line mad

Burwood

18,709 posts

245 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2021
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RobDickinson said:
Hey thats my line mad
It’s ok, he won’t be here long. On the other hand you and I will biggrin

TameBritishMuslim

172 posts

74 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2021
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Burwood said:
RobDickinson said:
Hey thats my line mad
It’s ok, he won’t be here long. On the other hand you and I will biggrin
I'm here to stay mate beer but I often just lurk. My time is too precious to post tens of thousands of posts of crap.

Tuna

19,930 posts

283 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2021
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TameBritishMuslim said:
How many other car companies have a gross margin of 29% (excluding EV credits) as it stands today with Tesla?

How many have telemtry for insurance business? How many have an energy division to not only install capacity but perform arbitrage? How many have the same level of vertical integration, lean design and rapid prototyping and development? How many are making huge leaps and bounds in manufacturing to decrease cost of production and increase efficiency? Why is an established player like VW's CEO saying that it takes them 30 hours to produce and ID4 and yet it takes Tesla about 10? Which other car company is paying as low per KWh for batteries as Tesla is? Why is the average age of a VW worker 50, whereas, the average age of the Shanghai workers at Tesla is 26? Which other car company has a charging network they can leverage? And so on..

TL;DR: It's belief for a variety of good reasons not just 'faith' and even if RoboTaxi's and FSD are not here in a meaningful way by 2025; Tesla is anything but another car company.
I've no problem with you having articles of faith - there's a reason you've bet your life savings on a single company. Nor do I really want to waste energy arguing the points (though I don't think the company is as unique and special as you clearly do - there's a lot in your list that is either irrelevant or is an advantage gifted to new industry entrants that can be quickly eroded as they mature).

I'm very happy for you to believe in them, so long as you don't mind if I personally regard the current price as unrealistic, and think holding the investment carries a lot of risk. In your case, I'm sure it doesn't matter - if you've bought in since the early days, you'll easily be able to absorb a drop of 40% without hurting your retirement plans, even if it means you lose out on a few hundred thousand pounds worth of profit.

This only gets difficult if you want to attack or belittle other people for having different views to your own. There are a few more combative posters on these threads and frankly they make grown up conversation rather difficult.

TameBritishMuslim

172 posts

74 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2021
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Tuna said:
TameBritishMuslim said:
How many other car companies have a gross margin of 29% (excluding EV credits) as it stands today with Tesla?

How many have telemtry for insurance business? How many have an energy division to not only install capacity but perform arbitrage? How many have the same level of vertical integration, lean design and rapid prototyping and development? How many are making huge leaps and bounds in manufacturing to decrease cost of production and increase efficiency? Why is an established player like VW's CEO saying that it takes them 30 hours to produce and ID4 and yet it takes Tesla about 10? Which other car company is paying as low per KWh for batteries as Tesla is? Why is the average age of a VW worker 50, whereas, the average age of the Shanghai workers at Tesla is 26? Which other car company has a charging network they can leverage? And so on..

TL;DR: It's belief for a variety of good reasons not just 'faith' and even if RoboTaxi's and FSD are not here in a meaningful way by 2025; Tesla is anything but another car company.
I've no problem with you having articles of faith - there's a reason you've bet your life savings on a single company. Nor do I really want to waste energy arguing the points (though I don't think the company is as unique and special as you clearly do - there's a lot in your list that is either irrelevant or is an advantage gifted to new industry entrants that can be quickly eroded as they mature).

I'm very happy for you to believe in them, so long as you don't mind if I personally regard the current price as unrealistic, and think holding the investment carries a lot of risk. In your case, I'm sure it doesn't matter - if you've bought in since the early days, you'll easily be able to absorb a drop of 40% without hurting your retirement plans, even if it means you lose out on a few hundred thousand pounds worth of profit.

This only gets difficult if you want to attack or belittle other people for having different views to your own. There are a few more combative posters on these threads and frankly they make grown up conversation rather difficult.
I haven't bet my life savings, just invested regularly and I respect others views - it's no skin off my nose. I just thought I'd chime in on a relevant topic. You can clearly see who is behaving in a combative / <insert expletive here> way and it isn't me.


JonnyVTEC

3,001 posts

174 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2021
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I find referencing the age of workers odd and irrelevant though, especially in a country like China.

Tuna

19,930 posts

283 months

Wednesday 3rd November 2021
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Since there has been some discussion on retail investing, and I don't want to start another thread, I thought I'd put this in here. I was watching an interesting video on the Gamestop stocks - this was a point in the SEC report into the Wallstreetbets event earlier in the year:



Far from hammering short positions, the report states that most funds got out early - but then some subsequently rejoined with long positions to take profits, contributing to the bubble and subsequent high valuation of the stock. In other words, it stopped being about the valuation of Gamestop (either positive or negative), but about the market playing the market. The report overall dismisses ideas that there were 'market fixing' trades affecting prices - neither evidence for naked shorts or a gamma squeeze - so the stocks rose naturally on social media attention rather than through any manipulation.

Also some interesting numbers on retail investors - Robinhood gained an additional six million accounts last year, one million of which had an average age of 19.

Make of that what you will...

Durzel

12,232 posts

167 months

Wednesday 3rd November 2021
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Tuna said:
Since there has been some discussion on retail investing, and I don't want to start another thread, I thought I'd put this in here. I was watching an interesting video on the Gamestop stocks - this was a point in the SEC report into the Wallstreetbets event earlier in the year:



Far from hammering short positions, the report states that most funds got out early - but then some subsequently rejoined with long positions to take profits, contributing to the bubble and subsequent high valuation of the stock. In other words, it stopped being about the valuation of Gamestop (either positive or negative), but about the market playing the market. The report overall dismisses ideas that there were 'market fixing' trades affecting prices - neither evidence for naked shorts or a gamma squeeze - so the stocks rose naturally on social media attention rather than through any manipulation.

Also some interesting numbers on retail investors - Robinhood gained an additional six million accounts last year, one million of which had an average age of 19.

Make of that what you will...
This speaks to the naiveness of people involved really. Even now you can find mention of "short squeezes", "hedgies", etc on various meme stocks as if it's like a war that must be won. Newcomers who have FOMO'd in repeat these buzz words without knowledge of what they mean or how (or even if) they apply.

It takes a special brand of idiot to think that "hedgies" are only shorting stuff, or are in any way "in a war" against them. It should not be remotely surprising that the same "enemy" would capitalise on upward momentum as well, or even to feed the narrative that buying into the stock injures them. People making investments personal is a sure fire way to get creamed by entities who have been in the game a lot longer than them, who aren't making it personal.

It's quite sad to see really, there's people ploughing money into stuff that they are convinced will "go to the moon". They don't explain how this will happen, how a company would have to confound years of downward momentum, they just say the words as if that will somehow invoke it. A number of people made serious money from the genuine GME short squeeze, but a great many more bought in at levels that will almost certainly never be seen again.

hyphen

26,262 posts

89 months

Wednesday 3rd November 2021
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TameBritishMuslim said:
How many other car companies have a gross margin of 29%...
They offer 2 models (of note) limited options, limited paint colors, online only, don't pay for advertising etc.

Because they were a niche player and people who wanted a more expensive ev than a Nissan Leaf didn't have much choice. Plus all the self driving sci-fi future attracting the geeks.

Vag made $11bn for the last quarter selling a huge array of vehicles.

If Tesla want to maintain that 29% gross margin, they need to maintain leading spec cars. And that requires investment.

Burwood

18,709 posts

245 months

Wednesday 3rd November 2021
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Rob, I've digested ARKs Report. For what it's worth (nil) it's nothing but fictional made up bks. I'm willing to concede it's possible Tesla could sell 5M cars by close 2025 (annually) but highly unlikely. ARK also estimate that GM will increase to 40% (its 26 today). They'll do well to maintain GM. Car sale for 5M =225B. The other 300B to come from robots taxi and insurance. OR without that they suggest 10m cars annually. VW currently sell about 8M cars and I think VW will sell more cars than Tesla in 2023, maybe sooner. True FSD is years away, 10. And when it arrives it will take another 5 to be a robot tax cash cow. And Tesla will not have the market to themselves. I know you will disagree completely but that's my view




Edited by Burwood on Wednesday 3rd November 12:32

Burwood

18,709 posts

245 months

Wednesday 3rd November 2021
quotequote all
Tuna said:
Since there has been some discussion on retail investing, and I don't want to start another thread, I thought I'd put this in here. I was watching an interesting video on the Gamestop stocks - this was a point in the SEC report into the Wallstreetbets event earlier in the year:



Far from hammering short positions, the report states that most funds got out early - but then some subsequently rejoined with long positions to take profits, contributing to the bubble and subsequent high valuation of the stock. In other words, it stopped being about the valuation of Gamestop (either positive or negative), but about the market playing the market. The report overall dismisses ideas that there were 'market fixing' trades affecting prices - neither evidence for naked shorts or a gamma squeeze - so the stocks rose naturally on social media attention rather than through any manipulation.

Also some interesting numbers on retail investors - Robinhood gained an additional six million accounts last year, one million of which had an average age of 19.

Make of that what you will...
The facts speak for themselves-Institutions aren't day trading. GME has 71M Issued Shares(ish). Insiders hold just under 20% and institutions (funds, insurance companies) hold 30%. So take them out of the mix and you have a FLOAT of 35-36M shares. That's it. When things went mental GME saw 150M shares change hands in 1 day and they had 2-3 weeks of 25-70M daily volume. That is short selling, covering, day trading-a frenzy. You only see these situations with very low float vs volume activity. The short squeeze is simply 30-40m shares sold looking to buy and oops there are no sellers at a price they wanted to pay so they wait and wait....eventually capitulate and cover at $80 higher and it drives the price up further.

Tuna

19,930 posts

283 months

Wednesday 3rd November 2021
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Another interesting figure - the US has issued just short of $400bn worth of stimulus cheques over covid, and over $2tn (trillion) worth of economic stimulus.

Statistics are currently that a little short of 50% of all stimulus cheques were at least partially invested in the markets.

Burwood

18,709 posts

245 months

Wednesday 3rd November 2021
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Tuna said:
Statistics are currently that a little short of 50% of all stimulus cheques were at least partially invested in the markets.
I looked that up because it sounds far too much. A survey of 1,500 people. Poor sample. 70% said they invested 'something' with 46% of those saying at least half. Reports range from 50b to 190b from stimulus money. It's a drop in the ocean. The market cap of the US stock market is almost $50T.

daily volume is around $250B

tapering isn't an issue nor has the new money done a whole lot. The market wasn't crazy before stimulus? smile
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