Hydrogen availability

[anonymous-user]

I read the article before posting it. I don't need you to read it back to me. I know it's not pro/anti anything, hence why I posted it.

To note, again, I'm not here to beat up on BEV and I'm not keen to engage in any silliness with BEV fanboys.

I don't think Hyundai would develop and produce a fuel cell passenger car (like they have done, not just in their home market) with no belief in the future of FCs for passenger cars, least of all have an article saying there's no future for it on their own corporate website.

They see the potential for the future of passenger car FCEVs but they are happy to point out that current infrastructure setup is currently more ready for commercial FCEV.

Everyone is saying the infrastructure is key and needs to be properly funded and developed. I think Hyundai are engaging with government to press for this. Further production and sales of commercial FCEVs will increase the impetus for this. Passenger car FCEVs will eventually piggyback this. I think it was 78% of automotive industry executives that favoured FCEV over BEV for the future so I don't believe that your pessimism is shared within the industry, except for the notably BEV dependent fella from Tesla.

Edited by anonymous-user on Friday 23 October 15:58

[anonymous-user]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Projected.
2030.
So you think that multiple international consultancies, like PWC, are just talking rubbish?

Can you back up your figures and statements with some links please?

[GT119]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Yeah but you need to make it clear that those TCOs no doubt have a very high depreciation components to mask the fact that the energy consumption cost of a FCEV is twice that of BEV. How many years are the TCOs calculated over?

[otolith]

There are a couple of reports favouring the prospects of FCEVs, but you do have to be looking for literally the first result that agrees with your position in order to wade through all the reports which disagree.

[JonnyVTEC]

Cant really have an credible reports on the basis no one has sold a FECV? They are all massively subsidised leases are they not?

[98elise]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Which do you think are wrong?

Hydrogen vehicles are BEV's with tanks and fuel cells. They are more complex and cost more. Where are the 30k FCEV's?
The tanks have a fixed life, they are certified for a fixed number of years. Would you buy a car with only a few years left on its tanks?
We don't have a hydrogen infrastructure, and you can't just start using it in any existing infrastructure. That's physics.
Hydrogen needs more energy than BEV's, again it's physics.



That's before we start with all the other downsides of Hydrogen.

[anonymous-user]

otolith said:

There are a couple of reports favouring the prospects of FCEVs, but you do have to be looking for literally the first result that agrees with your position in order to wade through all the reports which disagree.

Which reports disagree?
Why don't you post some?

[anonymous-user]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

[otolith]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

That was just my experience of trying to find the report you were referring to before you put a link up. Loads of stuff about how it might reach parity with ICE by 2030, some even 2025, but for BEV I really had to look, and then look in the reports to check.

Lots of stuff generally pointing out that H is a dead end for passenger cars because it's so horribly inefficient.

[anonymous-user]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

??????
Post some reports that disagree.

[otolith]

hydrogen fuel cell parity first 3 are these, followed by many more of the same

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1128428_repor...

https://www.fleetmanagementweekly.com/hydrogen-for...

https://www.convenience.org/Media/Daily/2020/Jun/1...

or hydrogen fuel cell vs bev

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1127660_batte...

https://www.euronews.com/living/2020/02/13/hydroge...

https://www.theweek.co.uk/electric-cars/101196/hyd...

https://insideevs.com/news/406676/battery-electric...

[anonymous-user]

Otolith!

The first three links all link to one source!

You've just posted opinion.



I posted reports by renowned, professional, international consultancies. Actual reports with pages and pages of details and data.

You post links to opinion pieces, a handful of them from the same bloody author.

ETA when you look don't look for X Vs Y results look for pretty benign terms like 'future of EVs' or 'EV roadmap' . If you look for fighty results that bash one mode you'll get loads of biased opinion pieces!

Edited by anonymous-user on Friday 23 October 17:57

[GT119]

VK, you are the Black Knight, AICMFP.

[Greg_D]

Ok. I concede, hfc is the future.
We are on the cusp of a hydrogen revolution and I’m just too blind to see the iceberg approaching. In a few short years, we will all be driving them...

How could I have been so blind!!!

The power of a report, I’ve completely changed my view...

It’s like arguing with the god squad, they constantly challenge you to prove that god doesn’t exist....

[anonymous-user]

Another thing to ponder, when BEV numbers start to really increase, is the management of the BEV charging infrastructure on the motorways, particularly during the holiday season.
How will it be worked so that everyone who needs charge can get charge? Will there be sufficient throughput?

I wonder if this has been examined. Any reports?

[Throttle Body]

Looking back over the whole thread, I find Max_Torque and GT119 to be both most convincing in the following posting, and to hold much the same view that I do. So far as I can see, HFCs don't belong in cars, but they might belong in trucks.

GT119 said:

Max_Torque said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

I've seen the 10 year product plan for two of the OEs named, and there is no HFC production passcar in their plans. And no, of course i don't have the fully picture or a crystal ball, but i've wored in the industry for 25 years for most of the major OE's and i currently run a consultancy working for those OEs providing design, development, calibration and validation expertise for Passcar, so i'm going to respectfully suggest my insight is both pretty good, and unless you can provide direct evidence to the contrary, more informed than yours?

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Of course, costs pretty much allways fall (ignoring unforeseen geo-political effects). But what matters is not actually the cost, but the relative cost. And BEV costs are falling faster than for HFC.

anonymous said:

[redacted]

The average driver / car owner in the UK, the EVERYMAN in fact, drives 20 miles a day. So not only do BEVs actually suit the Everyman perfectly, they also will soon provide that Everyman with the lowest cost as well

anonymous said:

[redacted]

A power socket or EVSE (which can be as small as a shoebox) is more invasive than the (yet to actually exist) infrastructure to provide a source of hydrogen?

The greatest challange at a local level is how to get a small power lead across a pavement. Hardly rocket science now is it and the majority (that everyman again) already have off-street parking, so no issues there, just need a small box screwed to the side of a wall or fence.

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Of course. And in fact, the vast majority of HFC projects have been Government funded (i've worked on a couple) and that's actually why they have happened, because they are not currently economically viable by their own right. People like BMW do HFC demo projects because they are good PR an they get PAID to do so (complex tax law means that R&D work can be written off against .gov funded projects, and so enable said companies to reduce their overall tax liabilies. This means that you can effectively leverage government money to develop your BEVs, neatly contained in a never-to-reach-production HFC wrapper! This is why you see so many R&D / research HFC projects but very few actually production HFC passcars!

It's also really, really important to point out that a HFC passcar is mainly actually a BEV! All the same bits a BEV has are required for a HFC car, and as i have mentioned, when you do the engineering analysis, today, it's a better return to reduce the HFC content and increase the BEV content, to the point where the HFC content is actually zero. (which is why there are lots of BEVs now, and just a couple of HFC cars)

anonymous said:

[redacted]

But contrary to what you suggest, if the engineering does not stack up, then the rest is irrelevant. The marketing, politicians and every other buisness person means nothing if the basic engineering is non-viable. Today, HFC in passcar is non-viable, which is directly reflected in the fact that realistically, you can't buy one as an end user. (yes, there are some ultra-low volume niche cars but realistically, today, you cannot walk into a car dealer and buy and HFC passcar, unlike you can with a BEV.

How ever much you like HFC and hydrogen, you cannot ignore basic facts, namely:

1) there is no hydrogen infrastucture for passcar

2) Overall energy consumption is massively worse per mile driven (massively less efficient and no intrinsic regen)

3) HFC vehicles are extremely expensive to develop and make, requiring all the parts a BEV needs and all the parts for the HFC,some of which are extremely complex and only work in a very narrow operating window (for example, how do you "start" a HFC car in a minus 20 degC environment?)

4) Commerical hydrogen production today is centred around the reformation of hydrocarbon fuels, meaning it is neither "Green" nor renewable


The only singular advantage that a HFC powered passcar has today over a pure BEV is, as have mentioned, in speed of refueling. That's it. Every other aspect is substantially negative in comparison to a pure BEV. And speed of refueling is actually not a real problem for the everyman. Humans need to sleep for about 8 hours a day to "recharge" which intrinsically means you have time each day to recharge on avergage. And with fast charging infrastructure becoming more and more available, it's actually a complete non-issue for the majority of passcar owners. Yes, some car drivers, people who drive 400 miles a day everyday, currently are not suited to a BEV, but they can just use an existing ICE!


Does this mean Hydrogen is not usefull as an energy storage medium? Of course not, but we have to get out the old mindset of thinking we each need to own and carry around the "energy extraction device" ourselves!

Edited by Max_Torque on Tuesday 20th October 13:39

Max, thank you for taking the time to construct such concise and detailed responses, almost all of which I agree with.

Your industry insight is very similar and slightly more current than mine, but the observations are identical.

The ship has well and truly sailed, on so many fronts, inside and outside the industry. Witness the residential EV charging planning requirements for new builds to see how far down the road it is.

VK , I’m struggling to see how you can downplay the importance of the engineering, commercial and business aspects in favour of random geopolitical forces, especially as you haven’t really presented any evidence of this.

You have not responded to Max any further on the points above, which, without any evidence-based counter argument, leaves us where?

I would also point out that you, me and many of the posters on here are probably no spring chickens. Our love affair with the motoring of past is slowly but surely dying out, and things like the importance of car ownership, range anxiety, refuelling, driving hundreds and hundreds of miles,etc. is all going to go the same way.

[Mikehig]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

It's only fair to ask the same question for FCEVs.
Has anyone done a draft design? How would the relatively large amount of hydrogen be supplied?
Onsite generation would involve a field of electrolysers witha huge power demand.
It would be interesting to see how this is supposed to work.

[anonymous-user]

Mikehig said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

It's only fair to ask the same question for FCEVs.
Has anyone done a draft design? How would the relatively large amount of hydrogen be supplied?
Onsite generation would involve a field of electrolysers witha huge power demand.
It would be interesting to see how this is supposed to work.

It is interesting.

Air Liquide have their hands all over industrial gases like hydrogen. They've been in the business for 40 years.
There's a project called HyBalance that aims to cover the entire supply chain to the end user.
It involves electrolysis, energy storage and grid balancing.
https://www.airliquide.com/magazine/energy-transit...

They've hydrogen filling stations across Europe and they're into Canada now, I believe.

There are some interesting video presentations here and there on the Air Liquide website, some in French with French subtitles though!

[leef44]

https://www.airproducts.co.uk/applications/automob...

Here's another company. In its web-page there is a link to a video showing how to refuel your hydrogen vehicle.

It also has a chart showing methods of transporting hydrogen.

[leef44]

https://www.airproducts.co.uk/company/innovation/h...

Just to add, it does have a dedicated project on hydrogen powered vehicles.

Although it is U.S. based, it demonstrates the technology.