Residuals on large EVs

[gangzoom]

Togneri said:

While I'd love to believe this, am wary that the chart implies that the value of a base i-pace won't go down to £40k until its hit 60k miles, whereas there are 17k mile examples at this price today.

Given the number of used iPace for sale I recon you can have one for £35K if you were willing to complete on the day and take the car off the hands of the dealer ASAP.

I have no idea why no one seems to want to buy used iPaces, it won loads of awards when new, wasn't really discounted at launch, has a big battery, has a big(ish) brand history, and owners seem to like them. But they just aren't shifting on the used market over 1000+ on Autotrader versus 600 or so used S+X combined, bare in mind the S has been onsale in the UK since 2014 versus 2018 for the iPace.

[J1990]

gangzoom said:

Given the number of used iPace for sale I recon you can have one for £35K if you were willing to complete on the day and take the car off the hands of the dealer ASAP.

I have no idea why no one seems to want to buy used iPaces, it won loads of awards when new, wasn't really discounted at launch, has a big battery, has a big(ish) brand history, and owners seem to like them. But they just aren't shifting on the used market over 1000+ on Autotrader versus 600 or so used S+X combined, bare in mind the S has been onsale in the UK since 2014 versus 2018 for the iPace.

I think the problem is that the mega lease deal that came on them meant that they shipped out a ton of them in S trim with zero options. That meant that a lot forewent heated seats and blind spot assist (Heated seats now standard on the S but I believe they were optional at launch). Blind spot assist is surprisingly helpful given the tiny rear window and the huge blindspot on these cars. Then add in further 1st world problems such as having only aircon but not climate control. You quickly find yourself with an out of warranty Jaguar, where a lot of the spec you'd be wanting is missing. I can see why the price is suffering so hard on these S models.

The SE and HSE models seem to fly off of AT for 45k and 50k respectively at 2-3 years old.

[Heres Johnny]

Past performance is not a guide to future etc etc...

But this is the actual, historic depreciation curve for Tesla Model S 100Ds cars from 2018. Its not quite covered 3 years yet, but 97k falling to 55k now, so thats a 46% fall in just under 3 years. Tesla don't discount so the list price will also be the price you pay except in some rare situations

[Heres Johnny]

The model X on the other hand seems to have done much better, about 105k down to 70k, althouigh thats still £1k a month

[CheesecakeRunner]

Heres Johnny said:

Past performance is not a guide to future etc etc...

I think that's very important when looking at historical Tesla depreciation. Up until recently, and even arguably now, there hasn't been any competition for a Model S or X, if you wanted a big, long range EV, you could only buy a Tesla. And as a result, they held their value.

Over the next 5 to 10 years that is going to change rapidly. More choice, and more secondhand vehicles available will result in higher depreciation.

[Togneri]

Heres Johnny said:

Past performance is not a guide to future etc etc...

But this is the actual, historic depreciation curve for Tesla Model S 100Ds cars from 2018. Its not quite covered 3 years yet, but 97k falling to 55k now, so thats a 46% fall in just under 3 years. Tesla don't discount so the list price will also be the price you pay except in some rare situations

Thanks - really interesting - is there a similar data source for 2016 cars? Personally it's the depreciation in years 3/4/5 I'm interested in, I'm hoping that it will tail off like a traditional ICE motor.

CheesecakeRunner said:

I think that's very important when looking at historical Tesla depreciation. Up until recently, and even arguably now, there hasn't been any competition for a Model S or X, if you wanted a big, long range EV, you could only buy a Tesla. And as a result, they held their value.

Over the next 5 to 10 years that is going to change rapidly. More choice, and more secondhand vehicles available will result in higher depreciation.

Yeah this is the danger of looking at historic Tesla values. That being said, provided badge snobbery remains a thing, would hope that used i-pace values could also be protected by a lack of competition from the german marques (because you'll have to fork out a lot more to buy a newer BMW/Merc).

[CheesecakeRunner]

Togneri said:

Yeah this is the danger of looking at historic Tesla values. That being said, provided badge snobbery remains a thing, would hope that used i-pace values could also be protected by a lack of competition from the german marques (because you'll have to fork out a lot more to buy a newer BMW/Merc).

Bear in mind it's a Jaguar though :-). My £65,000 Jaguar was worth £25,000 at three years old.

[Heres Johnny]

Togneri said:

Heres Johnny said:

Past performance is not a guide to future etc etc...

But this is the actual, historic depreciation curve for Tesla Model S 100Ds cars from 2018. Its not quite covered 3 years yet, but 97k falling to 55k now, so thats a 46% fall in just under 3 years. Tesla don't discount so the list price will also be the price you pay except in some rare situations

Thanks - really interesting - is there a similar data source for 2016 cars? Personally it's the depreciation in years 3/4/5 I'm interested in, I'm hoping that it will tail off like a traditional ICE motor.

Here's one for the 85D. The depreciation seems relatively straight on these and doesn't level off which I think it due to warranty remaining. There are also plots of a given age car by mileage and the price is very much linked to miles. I'm not allowed to say where the charts are as Pistonheads tell me off, but they're all visible for any model/year if you can find them.

[Togneri]

CheesecakeRunner said:

Bear in mind it's a Jaguar though :-). My £65,000 Jaguar was worth £25,000 at three years old.

Please stop destroying my man maths with rational arguments.

[gangzoom]

Heres Johnny said:

Here's one for the 85D. The depreciation seems relatively straight on these and doesn't level off

The gradient is the same but the Y axis value range is different. You need to replot those with 0 start point to show gradient of deprecation .

[Basil Brush]

gangzoom said:

Heres Johnny said:

Here's one for the 85D. The depreciation seems relatively straight on these and doesn't level off

The gradient is the same but the Y axis value range is different. You need to replot those with 0 start point to show gradient of deprecation .

Or plot them as percentages so you can overlay them.

[CloudStuff]

Though I’d post here rather than a new thread.

I have hired (subscription service on.to) an eTron 55 (black edition fwiw). I though it would be functional at best, and just wanted to get to grips with charging and general life duties.

It’s a revelation. I know they are slated due to poor efficiency, but that’s not relevant to all use cases.

My mileage will never be high, and as a car to zip around in, it is fantastic.

They seem to have resolved the build and reliability issues. It’s comfortable, rides really well and looks the part.

The biggest revelation is the power delivery. Rather than a ‘whoosh’ novelty, I actually enjoy it. I think it’s really suited to a large suv. For congested roads, and anything other than fun drives outs I prefer it.

I thought it would be under powered, but the overtaking power is immense.

I’m a definite convert to ev for the week, ice for the weekend.

Taycan CT coming soon. Even more excited now.

[sjg]

CloudStuff said:

I know they are slated due to poor efficiency, but that’s not relevant to all use cases.

It matters a whole lot less when there are 150+kW chargers all over the place, and Ionity, Shell, BP, Swarco and others have been busy in the last couple of years. That new Rugby services (12x350kW chargers) right near the middle of the country is handy too.

Unlike many, the eTron 55 charges really fast right up to 80% before tailing off. It was a poor experience when you'd have to wait around on 50kW chargers, but you can get to most places in the country now barely slower than a Tesla would.

[ZesPak]

The problem with low efficiency is that, even though their charging curve is relatively flat, it just means it saps a lot of juice.
The charging speed in terms of km/hour is still not impressive.

[rdj001]

Real world examples as we (my company) are considering getting rid of 2 EVs

2019 Tesla Model X P100d (£100k list)
2020 eTron 55 Launch Edition (£86k list)

Both priced via webuyanycar this week for a quick comparison.

Tesla worth £77k after 2 years and 25k miles.
Audi worth £52k after 1 year and 15k miles

I love the eTron, it is a brilliant car but clearly a depreciation nightmare.

[ZesPak]

I don't care too much for an e-tron, but a 1 year old one sounds like a good prospect

Out of interest, why are you getting rid of both?

[JonnyVTEC]

I don’t how isolated from EV land you have to be to get in a 55 etron and expect it to be underpowered

[oop north]

As you cannot expect delivery of a new model S or X before the end of 2022 if you order one now, I think the speed of Tesla depreciation may be reduced at the moment due to com supply restrictions - so extrapolation may be dangerous?

[SWoll]

rdj001 said:

Real world examples as we (my company) are considering getting rid of 2 EVs

2019 Tesla Model X P100d (£100k list)
2020 eTron 55 Launch Edition (£86k list)

Both priced via webuyanycar this week for a quick comparison.

Tesla worth £77k after 2 years and 25k miles.
Audi worth £52k after 1 year and 15k miles

I love the eTron, it is a brilliant car but clearly a depreciation nightmare.

A quick look on AT and there are only 2 P100D 2019 X's available, both with reasonable mileages and both priced at almost £90k. Plenty of markup for WBAC in that. Tesla have no X available in their used inventory.

You can buy a 2020 ETron 55 Launch Edition from Audi for not much over £55k, so that £52k offer looks a tight deal for WBAC. Plenty of choice as well.

[Shawnl]

rdj001 said:

Real world examples as we (my company) are considering getting rid of 2 EVs

2019 Tesla Model X P100d (£100k list)
2020 eTron 55 Launch Edition (£86k list)

Both priced via webuyanycar this week for a quick comparison.

Tesla worth £77k after 2 years and 25k miles.
Audi worth £52k after 1 year and 15k miles

I love the eTron, it is a brilliant car but clearly a depreciation nightmare.

I’m not sure this is quite real world depreciation though. Admittedly you won’t get any discount on the Tesla list price but I can’t imagine anyone will have paid full list for the Audi. Quick search of Autotrader shows you can easily get £12-£15k off of the list without even trying which does close the gap.

Fully appreciate that’s still quite a hefty hit though!