EV Maths Fail

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Discussion

OutInTheShed

7,598 posts

26 months

Monday 6th March 2023
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JD said:
Where does one by a new old diesel?
The same place you buy a 15 year old current generation EV?

If you want shiny and new, you have to pay for it.
But not everyone is that impressed by shiny and new.

If you can't live without shiny and new, then you probably want to be looking at the total costs of petrol vs BEV.
Lots of people make that comparison, most of them buy petrol cars.

Nomme de Plum

4,603 posts

16 months

Monday 6th March 2023
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OutInTheShed said:
JD said:
Where does one by a new old diesel?
The same place you buy a 15 year old current generation EV?

If you want shiny and new, you have to pay for it.
But not everyone is that impressed by shiny and new.

If you can't live without shiny and new, then you probably want to be looking at the total costs of petrol vs BEV.
Lots of people make that comparison, most of them buy petrol cars.
We buy what we like and feel comfortable with.

The average person earns not a huge amount of money say £30k or so. In the EV evolution cycle we are at the upper middle classes being able to afford an EV. Say £60k+

In a few years time used EVs will not be expensive.

You will not have a choice anyway so resisting on here is futile.

sixor8

6,292 posts

268 months

Monday 6th March 2023
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Yes you will, for many years. Only new cars will be EVs.

poo at Paul's

14,147 posts

175 months

Monday 6th March 2023
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Jamescrs said:
Do they have to factor in the cost of installing a charging point to their home?

I.assume they don't want to constantly charge off a 3 pin plug and don't have a charger.
This seems to be a big issue now round my way. We had a new cut out put in by the power distributor after smart meter guy broke it! I asked if we could have a 100 amp one, and since we already had that before, they did it for free, hurrah.
Me and a neighbour had a specialist EV point installer to quote on Friday, (to be fiat it was him really, but I heard he was coming so asked him to quote for us too whilst here.
We were £990 plus VAT, and I think neighbour was more as he doesn’t have 100 amps yet.
Cost was higher as it needs some isolator fitted now, apparently.
That’s a lot of cost for a short commute!

OutInTheShed

7,598 posts

26 months

Monday 6th March 2023
quotequote all
poo at Paul's said:
Jamescrs said:
Do they have to factor in the cost of installing a charging point to their home?

I.assume they don't want to constantly charge off a 3 pin plug and don't have a charger.
This seems to be a big issue now round my way. We had a new cut out put in by the power distributor after smart meter guy broke it! I asked if we could have a 100 amp one, and since we already had that before, they did it for free, hurrah.
Me and a neighbour had a specialist EV point installer to quote on Friday, (to be fiat it was him really, but I heard he was coming so asked him to quote for us too whilst here.
We were £990 plus VAT, and I think neighbour was more as he doesn’t have 100 amps yet.
Cost was higher as it needs some isolator fitted now, apparently.
That’s a lot of cost for a short commute!
The cost of a charging point is what a cartel can charge a captive market.
It's not like you're allowed to simply buy a 16/32/60....Amp mains socket and get it fitted by a suitable electrician.

It seems plausible the current generation of charging point will be outmoded before too long?

JD

2,774 posts

228 months

Monday 6th March 2023
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OutInTheShed said:
I reckon £100 a month is about the bare minimum for depreciation and repairs anyone should budget on for an old diesel.
As I said, it's not hard to spend more.

£400 was a guess at monthly leasing or depreciation for the EV in the OP.
It's possible to run other EVs for less, but not tons less.
Even if you were to look at the lower end of the used EV market, you'd want to be writing down the value by a few £k a year if you were being realistic.

It's not an anti-EV point, it's just pointing out that motoring is an expensive game and the fuel cost is not generally the most of it.
Why would you compare a new EV with an old diesel, nobody is planing to replace an old diesel with an old diesel are they?

dmsims

6,519 posts

267 months

Monday 6th March 2023
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OutInTheShed said:
It's not like you're allowed to simply buy a 16/32/60....Amp mains socket and get it fitted by a suitable electrician.
You can get a commando socket fitted and then use an Ohme charger

SWoll

18,373 posts

258 months

Monday 6th March 2023
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dmsims said:
OutInTheShed said:
It's not like you're allowed to simply buy a 16/32/60....Amp mains socket and get it fitted by a suitable electrician.
You can get a commando socket fitted and then use an Ohme charger
Or use an accessible 3 pin plug socket, like we have, for 4 years and 50k+ miles.

Good for 50-80 miles a night of charging dependent on EV.

OutInTheShed

7,598 posts

26 months

Monday 6th March 2023
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JD said:
Why would you compare a new EV with an old diesel, nobody is planing to replace an old diesel with an old diesel are they?
I suspect millions of people are running old diesels and considering all options of what to get next.

Planning, or even planing, might be an exaggeration though!

JD

2,774 posts

228 months

Monday 6th March 2023
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OutInTheShed said:
I suspect millions of people are running old diesels and considering all options of what to get next.
What has that got to do with this:

Sterillium said:
A family member is in the process of ordering a new Peugeot E-2008

kurokawa

584 posts

108 months

Tuesday 7th March 2023
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it is a bit odds. I just renew my electricity tariff with Octopus, my octopus go end last week

I could either move to Octopus variable which is 44p all day or I could move to Octopus Intelligence which is 44p peak and 12 off peak.

Seem no reason not to move to Octopus Intelligence

ZesPak

24,428 posts

196 months

Tuesday 7th March 2023
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Haven't seen it mentioned but will have come up.

Aside from electricity, running costs of our EV has been ridiculously low compared to anything I've owned earlier.
80 000 km now, had 1 set of tires ~60k km. That's the extend of it. I'm aware an old diesel might not need much, but it's always more than nothing. And when you get into shed territory without a proper set of hands and tools yourself, it's easily hundreds a year on the low end.

Modern cars are actually worse as they are so high strung and complex because of emission standards, it's no contest. The 3rd year warranty on our 520d would have been ~2000 EUR, which speaks volumes.

OutInTheShed

7,598 posts

26 months

Tuesday 7th March 2023
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ZesPak said:
Haven't seen it mentioned but will have come up.

Aside from electricity, running costs of our EV has been ridiculously low compared to anything I've owned earlier.
80 000 km now, had 1 set of tires ~60k km. That's the extend of it. I'm aware an old diesel might not need much, but it's always more than nothing. And when you get into shed territory without a proper set of hands and tools yourself, it's easily hundreds a year on the low end.

Modern cars are actually worse as they are so high strung and complex because of emission standards, it's no contest. The 3rd year warranty on our 520d would have been ~2000 EUR, which speaks volumes.
I think you are right, when looking at the maths of car ownership, people should consider:
Depreciation
Maintenance
Warranties
Repairs
Risk of things going wrong.

You buy a newer car, you hope to have less risk of failure and less repairs.
You buy a shed, you take a gamble on it dying horribly and you losing your money.

I share your concerns about the viability of some newer cars in the used market. There is a lot to go wrong.
Complex transmissions. All that 'driver assistance' technocrap. Emissions gadgets. Lots and lots of electrics which are hard to get at.
Sometimes you hear of people's hassle with 6 year old cars and think they would be better off with a new one under warranty.

FeelingLucky

1,083 posts

164 months

Tuesday 7th March 2023
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Nomme de Plum said:
bearman68 said:
Peugeot are claiming about 4mile per kwh, 1 days commute is 40 miles, so 10 kwh. Off peak is 10p/ unit (or KWh) , so off peak is about £1, or peak charge is about £4.20. 4m / kwh is prob a bit optimistic, so worth adding maybe 25% to those costs, especially in winter £1.25 or about £5.25) (Dunno, maybe more?) Standing charge is not relevant here, as it would need to be paid anyway.
The old car would be about £6 a day. Give or take.

I'm sure you can calculate weekly.

I'm surprised there is so little difference to be honest. Running a shed looks good value.

Hope that helps.
I'd argue why would you not charge overnight at the 10p rate. The peak rate would not be required for EV charging.

They don't need to do it daily either with only 40mile per day usage.
Quite, nobody with access to off peak charging would do otherwise. Perhaps an agenda at play here.

As for the "I'm surprised there is so little difference to be honest", that's a frankly baffling statement, sure, one is six times the other. That in anybody's language is a vast gulf.

Nomme de Plum

4,603 posts

16 months

Tuesday 7th March 2023
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sixor8 said:
Yes you will, for many years. Only new cars will be EVs.
Yes from 2030 and 2035 for hybrids but say 15 years after that most ICEs will be off the road.

Fuel stations will be redeveloped.

ICE servicing engineers will not be required.

The Government will nudge us with additional ICE taxation if they feel necessary.

ZesPak

24,428 posts

196 months

Tuesday 7th March 2023
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From what I've seen and heard, a hybrid is the last thing I'd want to own from my own money.

Register1

2,140 posts

94 months

Tuesday 7th March 2023
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kurokawa said:
it is a bit odds. I just renew my electricity tariff with Octopus, my octopus go end last week

I could either move to Octopus variable which is 44p all day or I could move to Octopus Intelligence which is 44p peak and 12 off peak.

Seem no reason not to move to Octopus Intelligence
10 pence off peak

JonnyVTEC

3,005 posts

175 months

Tuesday 7th March 2023
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You would only be paying 34p on octopus flexible with the cap surely?

Mart65

12 posts

13 months

Friday 17th March 2023
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a7x88 said:
I don’t always get how some people use the off peak charging costs for their EV.

Yes, you can charge at the off peak rate, but then your normal usage is at higher cost and this never seems to be considered. You really need to calculate it using your average price per KWh. For example - I’m an EV driver and I use an overnight tariff. I only have an overnight tariff because I have an EV (if you would have one anyway this obviously does not apply). My average p/KWh is ~22p, so it would only be fair to use this average to calculate my journey cost.
Yes I’ve noticed people I speak to who have electric cars often (at best) didn’t consider when and where they’d be charging their cars, and what they’d do on long journeys

SWoll

18,373 posts

258 months

Friday 17th March 2023
quotequote all
Mart65 said:
a7x88 said:
I don’t always get how some people use the off peak charging costs for their EV.

Yes, you can charge at the off peak rate, but then your normal usage is at higher cost and this never seems to be considered. You really need to calculate it using your average price per KWh. For example - I’m an EV driver and I use an overnight tariff. I only have an overnight tariff because I have an EV (if you would have one anyway this obviously does not apply). My average p/KWh is ~22p, so it would only be fair to use this average to calculate my journey cost.
Yes I’ve noticed people I speak to who have electric cars often (at best) didn’t consider when and where they’d be charging their cars, and what they’d do on long journeys
Possibly because the kind of journeys where they would need to charge away from home are so rare that it's barely going to shift the needle on pence per mile costs?

We're on an E7 tariff and have been since before we got an EV so don't need to factor in higher peak charges as were already paying them and have balanced that out by pushing a number of power intensive things overnight.

At 18p kWh our current 400hp, 2500KG, SUV EV costs 7.2ppm (accounting for charging losses) when home charged. Of our 12k miles per year I'd estimate at most 1000 miles are powered by public chargers.

So that's 11k miles at 7.2ppm = £792 + 1k miles at 26ppm (65p kWh/2.5) = £260 so a total cost for 12k miles of £1052.

12k miles/£1052=11.4ppm, or the equivalent of a diesel car doing close to 70mpg at current prices (£1.659 a litre)

Obviously a more efficient EV would push the comparison close to 100mpg and it was considerably higher than that for us when we ran our i3 and Model 3 a few years back with massively lower kWh costs and rollercoaster diesel/petrol prices.

I do however feel like we rode the early EV wave very well but due to our usage changing will be looking to shift back to a combination of EV/ICE going forward. In 2019 we paid £379 a month for a brand new i3 including maint, tyres, insurance and public charging. We then had a 2019 Model 3 Performance for £799 a month on the same terms over 2 years. Those were the days, unfortunately anyone looking now is late to the party.



Edited by SWoll on Friday 17th March 09:57