How will the end of ICE availability affect buyer attitudes?

[TheDeuce]

ZesPak said:

+3

As for Malta, I've been recently. Loads of hybrids but the locals (even most taxi drivers) don't "believe" in EV's. I talked to a couple of them and all of them are convinced a car needs an engine to operate (their words, not mine).

Edited by ZesPak on Thursday 13th March 22:16

The wonderful thing about that is that Malta is just perfect for EV!! It's such a tiny place, a little city EV could easily get to anywhere and back on a charge


I suspect the truth is that 95% of them have older cars due to the wage level in Malta, they also have the infrastructure to repair cars on the cheap (seriously cheap and somewhat shoddy - I've worked there...) so there's no reason why they should be interested in EV just yet. Give it another decade when most very cheap older cars they can import are electric and they'll transition with no complaints. They're generally to happy to complain about anything that isn't really a problem - as is normal in pretty much all sunshine countries. Perhaps not Syria, there's always an exception.

[TheDeuce]

ZesPak said:

There's some EVs there, most taxis seemed to be relatively new Toyota Corolla Tourings, hybrids. People there are very "macho" about their cars though.
If you've got a bit of time, there's a quaint little car museum called "the Malta Classic Car Collection" that has some very nice cars. A lot of Alfas if you're into that.

I'm not in this picture btw.

Edited by ZesPak on Thursday 13th March 23:07

You say you're not in the picture, but I can't help but think that's because you're the pregnant chap in the black top


I'm back in Malta in 12 days time and I think I will check it out, thank you!! I also do appreciate that they love their cars - cars are AMAZING in that way because even when wages are low and property in expensive, everyone can justify buying a car as it's needed to get to work etc, so a car can be a point of passion/a hobby but also justified and guilt free. That's why the dream of a better car or an upgrade on the current car is so important, because it's often the only justifiable and affordable thing to spend money on that you can display to other people, and perhaps cheer them up if it's special/unique. That doesn't apply so much in modern Britain anymore but in places like Malta, you're the big dog if you have a half decent car. Even if you still live with your Mum and her Mum and can't afford to put petrol in it very often

[TheDeuce]

survivalist said:

JD said:

Ankh87 said:

I mean people coming from newish auto ICE cars to EVs won't really notice. Most people auto ICE are fairly quiet if you aren't thrashing them. They are fairly smooth to drive and the modern cars 2021+ I've driven, you can't tell,

You realise you are trying to convince a forum of people who actually drive electric cars something they know to be not factually correct right?

Seems about right to me. Unsurprisingly this forum is full of people who are very enthusiastic about EVs. My sister in law got an EV as a company car.

Asked her how she liked it and she said that she liked carplay. Asked her what it was like to drive and she said much the same has her last car.

When it’s white goods motoring most people just don’t care. We’ve got both, can’t say I’m fussed either way. Real benefit of EV is that it warms up / defrosts a bit faster in winder.

People seem obsessed with picking a side, but ICE and EV are mostly the same - cars that get us from A to B.

Filling up with fuel really ain’t a big deal and neither is plugging it in to charge (assuming you can charge at home - otherwise I can see how travelling to charge would be annoying)

Exactly. It shouldn't be about picking sides and most cars are so dull as to not really matter what powers them. Overall, as an intelligent species if we can produce cleaner cars that still get the job done we should do, and we are doing - that's literally all that is happening. If the average "I don't really care" user doesn't notice a big difference, that's actually a good thing!

Obviously this is PH so a big part of the EV discussion is about the stupidly fast ones... which is fine, we're car people, we're supposed to like the more interesting cars that go beyond white goods. But for the average motorist the biggest draw is going to be stuff like the convenience of home charging and the smug factor of defrosting or cooling the car before you even get out of bed. The smooth and quiet running is also a plus but not a deal breaker.

We used to make cars one way, we will now make them another way. That's it!

[TheDeuce]

bergclimber34 said:

The issue is the class and income divide let's be brutal here. Long term.

Until there is decent local charging network everywhere, those in flats, terraced, lower incomes, basically will not be driving EV's unless they can charge easily and effectively, the repair market is fair and decent and stuff like the secondhand market, insurance and costs are not crazy, that is the determining factor for people like that when buying cars.

It will even out eventually as maybe ICE will disappear and EV is the only option, but I also feel the class divide will start with personal transport, there is no easy solution to local, personal charging, so that will force a lot onto public transport and other forms of commuting, not a bad thing but a choice made for them, not by them.

That is the real deciding factor that will decide the future here.

You mean people with less money can't afford the new things as quickly as those with more money? That sounds entirely normal and correct in a capitalist society.

There's absolutely no need for anyone to get an EV until the issues you mention are sorted, all they're missing out on therefore is the opportunity to buy a brand new car for a period of years - which is and always has been an expensive luxury.

[TheDeuce]

bergclimber34 said:

The issue therefore is stop penalising those that cannot afford these things with increased emissions taxes and the like on cars they can afford, they cannot afford to run new cars in many cases ( especially with a family therefore needing a larger vehicle).

Effectively you are punishing people for not being able to afford a modern EV by heavily taxing them with all sorts of other costs, maybe not outweighed by the ludicrous cost of a new EV I admit, but even so, they get their pound of flesh either way, as usual. But you see the issue. Emissions based car tax is increasing hugely this month effectively penalising those that cannot afford EV's, that is a dirty way of treating people with less income. No surprise with this lefty shower in power.

The emissions fines (ULEZ etc) are for all cars that produce emissions, so that's not a wealth level thing. Obviusly it is the case that motoring in general is getting more expensive... But that's why buses are provided.

I guess the real upset is from those that used to have no problem affording personal transport, but now find it a stretch they may not be able to maintain. That's not really the fault of EV introduction though. It's also the case the relative affordability of things does change, it always has. We can each afford only what we can afford and we shouldn't feel so entitled as to expect that to never change.

[TheDeuce]

Len Clifton said:

survivalist said:

Len Clifton said:

TheDeuce said:

The emissions fines (ULEZ etc) are for all cars that produce emissions, so that's not a wealth level thing. Obviusly it is the case that motoring in general is getting more expensive... But that's why buses are provided.

I guess the real upset is from those that used to have no problem affording personal transport, but now find it a stretch they may not be able to maintain. That's not really the fault of EV introduction though. It's also the case the relative affordability of things does change, it always has. We can each afford only what we can afford and we shouldn't feel so entitled as to expect that to never change.

Difference is, all cars used to be taxed at the same rate. £60 for 6m or £120 per year if I remember correctly. Now, anything with a 2.0 petrol engine made after 2006 will cost its owner almost £800/year. Meanwhile, only reason EV drivers can afford to drive new cars is salary sacrifice, lower VED, and cheap energy tariffs. It’s discrimination against poor people for the benefit of people who work in offices and have off street parking. The answer cannot be that they catch the bus, especially when we need every working age person in work and able to get there.

Level the playing field for EVs vs ICEs and see how many people choose electric.

Edited by Len Clifton on Saturday 15th March 13:58

Over 120,000 cars with 2L+ engines on autotrader with a VED of £200 or less. Which is a fiver more than my EV will cost in Dec this year.

That’s obviously only the ones for sale.

Highest band for older cars is currently £735, but I’d suggest that anyone buying an older car with a 5L V8 bought it knowing that it wouldn’t be a cheap ownership proposition.

If anything, they’ll have to increase taxes on all the EV owners as the market share grows to offset the loss of fuel duty.

On the other hand….









Pretty much any family petrol or diesel car is being priced off the road

That family can replace their 16 year dirty shed with a 3 year old EV. The fuel saving should more or less cover the depreciation of the EV.

It might still cost a little more per month but they get a far newer and safer car for the family to enjoy and also are giving less cancer to the other families they drive past.

If that change can be encouraged via tax, why should it not be? If anyone really can't afford it then that's sad, but why would anyone expect to forever be able to afford something? The price of things does change.

[TheDeuce]

Len Clifton said:

TheDeuce said:

Len Clifton said:

survivalist said:

Len Clifton said:

TheDeuce said:

The emissions fines (ULEZ etc) are for all cars that produce emissions, so that's not a wealth level thing. Obviusly it is the case that motoring in general is getting more expensive... But that's why buses are provided.

I guess the real upset is from those that used to have no problem affording personal transport, but now find it a stretch they may not be able to maintain. That's not really the fault of EV introduction though. It's also the case the relative affordability of things does change, it always has. We can each afford only what we can afford and we shouldn't feel so entitled as to expect that to never change.

Difference is, all cars used to be taxed at the same rate. £60 for 6m or £120 per year if I remember correctly. Now, anything with a 2.0 petrol engine made after 2006 will cost its owner almost £800/year. Meanwhile, only reason EV drivers can afford to drive new cars is salary sacrifice, lower VED, and cheap energy tariffs. It’s discrimination against poor people for the benefit of people who work in offices and have off street parking. The answer cannot be that they catch the bus, especially when we need every working age person in work and able to get there.

Level the playing field for EVs vs ICEs and see how many people choose electric.

Edited by Len Clifton on Saturday 15th March 13:58

Over 120,000 cars with 2L+ engines on autotrader with a VED of £200 or less. Which is a fiver more than my EV will cost in Dec this year.

That’s obviously only the ones for sale.

Highest band for older cars is currently £735, but I’d suggest that anyone buying an older car with a 5L V8 bought it knowing that it wouldn’t be a cheap ownership proposition.

If anything, they’ll have to increase taxes on all the EV owners as the market share grows to offset the loss of fuel duty.

On the other hand….









Pretty much any family petrol or diesel car is being priced off the road

That family can replace their 16 year dirty shed with a 3 year old EV. The fuel saving should more or less cover the depreciation of the EV.

It might still cost a little more per month but they get a far newer and safer car for the family to enjoy and also are giving less cancer to the other families they drive past.

If that change can be encouraged via tax, why should it not be? If anyone really can't afford it then that's sad, but why would anyone expect to forever be able to afford something? The price of things does change.

Len Clifton said:

Meanwhile, only reason EV drivers can afford to drive new cars is salary sacrifice, lower VED, and cheap energy tariffs. It’s discrimination against poor people for the benefit of people who work in offices and have off street parking. The answer cannot be that they catch the bus, especially when we need every working age person in work and able to get there.

I’ve quoted my previous response to this. I can see EV fan boys don’t want to listen, so I’ll leave it there.

It's not discrimination at all. Not everyone can afford everything. If cars get more expensive in order to deter the use of inefficient cars then it may move 'cars' out of the reach of the lowest income households. Do you believe that no matter how poor a person is, a private car simply must be made affordable for them?

As for salary sacrifice, that has nothing to do with the example I gave. An EV can be bought used for affordable monthlies which will be largely covered by the fuel savings - in many cases probably entirely covered.

[TheDeuce]

Deep Thought said:

Len Clifton said:

On the other hand….









Pretty much any family petrol or diesel car is being priced off the road

You said "anything with a 2.0 litre engine" is being taxed at £800 a year?

Thats a 2.8 v6 turbo?

I cant really see too many families living on the poverty line running 2.8 turbo'd SAABs.

I think old, cheap 'but well rapid, bruv' cars like that are quite often run by people on the poverty line actually, which suggests their priorities might not be fully in order!

But as we know, it's easy to put several hundred a month in fuel into such a car, which means it could be replaced by a used EV for the same ££ a month overall.

If the family in question only does limited mileage and therefore don't spend much on fuel, the car can be replaced by a bus.

Or as you point out, simply a far more economical petrol car...

[TheDeuce]

Deep Thought said:

TheDeuce said:

I think old, cheap 'but well rapid, bruv' cars like that are quite often run by people on the poverty line actually, which suggests their priorities might not be fully in order!

But as we know, it's easy to put several hundred a month in fuel into such a car, which means it could be replaced by a used EV for the same ££ a month overall.

If the family in question only does limited mileage and therefore don't spend much on fuel, the car can be replaced by a bus.

Or as you point out, simply a far more economical petrol car...

Dont get me wrong - i'm all for older performance quirky stuff like that. They can be great buys.

It was the "all 2006+ 2.0 litre cars are now £800 a year to tax" i was questioning.

But yes, generally speaking if someone is one the bread line but needs a car to get to work, they'd be looking for some 1.4 petrol or a diesel car, rather than a fire breathing 2.8 turbo.

I dont think those looking to spend just a few £K really need to be considering a EV at this point - or any time soon.

I've a 2014 Golf 1.6 TDI that is currently £0 road tax (rising to a heady £20 from April!) and can do 60+mpg on a run. Lots of stuff like that for people who are running a car on a budget.

Exactly, just get a more efficient ICE car. The only reason to have the Saab turbo isbecause it's more interesting and fun than a slow and economical hatchback. That immediately demonstrates the owner isn't really on the breadline and is effectively opting to pay the higher VED as their car is also their hobby...

[TheDeuce]

otolith said:

Len Clifton said:

On the other hand….









Pretty much any family petrol or diesel car is being priced off the road

Won’t be many years before the people running fast old sheds can afford an old Tesla which will make that Saab look ridiculous.

But many people running an old 'used be posh' motor think that all EV's are hopelessly expensive and that they'll never last long enough to become cheap because the daily mail said so.

[TheDeuce]

Mahalo said:

King Gary seems to have stopped posting on 8th February (banned?). Len Clifton registered on 11th February and has posted phrases about EVs that are uncannily similar to the phrases KingGary used.

Stop it!!!

That would mean Gary has literally nothing in life other than forcing himself on people that think he's a pillock.

I always pictured him as a man that lives alone, has a sparsely furnished home with a games console and overly large pair of speakers in the lounge. The bedding gets changed once every few months (if it needs it) and drives the sort of car that is 'legendary' amongst other people that have also failed at life. To be fair I only think that because that was my life, when I was 20 and had my first proper house of my own

Thank god he was banned, I'd hate to say anything like that if he was still around!

[TheDeuce]

ZesPak said:

Deep Thought said:

Though most petrol stations in small towns and villages have the local shop attached. People will still need all the groceries they currently buy, they just wont necessarily tie that in with buying fuel.

Then the question stays the same: is it economical to keep the pump running?
Especially if they don't need the pump to pull in people.

The less people buy petrol, the more the economies of scale will reduce and the price start to nudge upwards - thus triggering a few more people to give up on buying petrol, ad infinitum: The circle of decline. But of course the pump remains so long as it makes some money, but as it's not making as much as it used to the margins in the shop are increased a little, which over time makes that less popular too!

In the end, the local petrol station/shop becomes less attractive to most residents than a longer trip to a proper supermarket, at which point it closes for good. There is no real space to shift focus from petrol to shop or vice versa, the two entities are only present together these days as they need one another to make sense.

For further reference, see the demise of village post offices, pubs, butchers and bakeries - despite the people in the village still sending letters, drinking beer, eating sausages and buying bread. The fact a need continues to exist doesn't mean all businesses that used to address that need are still viable.

[TheDeuce]

Tycho said:

TheDeuce said:

ZesPak said:

Deep Thought said:

Though most petrol stations in small towns and villages have the local shop attached. People will still need all the groceries they currently buy, they just wont necessarily tie that in with buying fuel.

Then the question stays the same: is it economical to keep the pump running?
Especially if they don't need the pump to pull in people.

The less people buy petrol, the more the economies of scale will reduce and the price start to nudge upwards - thus triggering a few more people to give up on buying petrol, ad infinitum: The circle of decline. But of course the pump remains so long as it makes some money, but as it's not making as much as it used to the margins in the shop are increased a little, which over time makes that less popular too!

In the end, the local petrol station/shop becomes less attractive to most residents than a longer trip to a proper supermarket, at which point it closes for good. There is no real space to shift focus from petrol to shop or vice versa, the two entities are only present together these days as they need one another to make sense.

For further reference, see the demise of village post offices, pubs, butchers and bakeries - despite the people in the village still sending letters, drinking beer, eating sausages and buying bread. The fact a need continues to exist doesn't mean all businesses that used to address that need are still viable.

Could be an opportunity to swap to rapid charging sites. If you are looking at a 10 min stop once a week then do your shopping as well.

That's why the supermarkets are now installing rapid chargers - lots of them!

The fact is that off the beaten track locations are never going to see a demand for charging even a tenth of what they may currently get for petrol, because 95% of people will only move to EV as and when they can charge at home in some form or other. Public charging only makes £££ olif it's en-route or at a popular destination, such as large shopping centres and supermarkets etc.

[TheDeuce]

Deep Thought said:

ZesPak said:

I don't have a worry. There will be a way to get petrol I'm sure.
I was pointing out, as per another poster, that whilst you will still be able to run an ICE in 25 years, it'll start getting increasingly more of a hassle much sooner than you think. If perceived convenience is an argument for some to stick to ICE, that argument could soon be void if petrol stations start closing.

Agreed.

It may well be a hassle. I'd say 25 years from now pure petrol cars will be weekend toys.

And yes, a reduction in the ease of getting petrol may well drive (ha!) people towards electric cars. But i think we'll have reached tipping point before then.

Petrol will definitely be available forevermore, there's no reason to ban the stuff. now and especially not in the future when the quantity used is no longer a concern in ecological reasons.

It'll become noticeably less commonplace at some point many years from now, it'll then continue to get even less common until I guess one day it'll become a bit like if you need some paraffin to run an obscure old tractor engine... special order item if you want a large delivery of it or available from certain places if you just want a few litres in a bottle.

[TheDeuce]

OutInTheShed said:

As has been mentioned above, retail margins on fuel are pretty low, so retailers can have a viable business selling half as much without prices going up much.
I expect there will be some fuel stations closing where there are plenty, but rural areas will probably support fuel stations more.
I can't see it being a problem for a long time, except perhaps for some motorbikes and scooters which have poor range.

I'm not sure I believe the vast reduction in fossil fuel consumption planned by 2050 will happen on time. It implies IC and hybrid vehicles bought from 2030 onwards having short lives, including commercial vehicles.

OTOH, there could be a tipping point soon, the supply of affordable new and used BEVs is starting to make a lot of 5 year old IC cars look like bad value.
The situation today is hugely driven by fleet buyers who only care about the 3 year lease period, but once a BEV is significantly more cost effective for fleet and business users, businesses will follow the money. Once the residual values of petrol cars start to look poor, very few people will lease them.

As I see it, you can't predict very far ahead now. Things could happen slowly, or flip quickly.
People with £30k tied up in an IC car they actually own could lose a lot of cash quite quickly, or not!

The other thing is, the final tranche of IC cars is a little bit crap, with too much complication and a short design life. Dodgy cam belts and chains, complex transmissions, comedy electronics and MOT emission limits which might be hard to meet with a worn engine. I won't be surprised to see reducing longevity.

I'm hoping the current shed will last until things are clearer.

That doesn't work because half the petrol sales also results in half the higher margin shop sales, however the costs of running the station remain more or less fixed.

Less petrol sales will eventually result in less petrol stations. Each remaining one will be selling enough to make sense, because they'll adopt the customers of the others that close.

[TheDeuce]

OutInTheShed said:

TheDeuce said:

That doesn't work because half the petrol sales also results in half the higher margin shop sales, however the costs of running the station remain more or less fixed.

Less petrol sales will eventually result in less petrol stations. Each remaining one will be selling enough to make sense, because they'll adopt the customers of the others that close.

That depends.
Our local garage does a fair trade in 'walk in' customers buying milk, bread, beer etc.
EV drivers will still use garages to buy daily essentials on the way home from work, because they are convenient with parking etc.

What may happen (more than it's happening already) is that fuel stations might open shorter hours, although there's already a few I know with unstaffed 24hr pay at the pump.
TBH, my diesel shed does over 500 miles on a tank, so if 90% of the fuel stations closed, I'd just have to fill up when I had 100 miles left instead of 50 or something.
A bike with a small tank, or a thirsty V6 like I used to have could become a PITA though?

In the long run, we're told that fossil fuel use in vehicles will be quite low in 20 years' time, and it seems plausible that petrol will be harder to find, but nobody can sensibly plan their personal motoring that far ahead. Most people change their car every 2 to 5 years, on that kind of time line, the issues are things like ULEZ's and taxation.
An awful lot of people still seem to be saying they'll buy one more IC car, just like they were saying 2 years ago.
Personally I'm thinking one more IC and one change to BEV in a two car (and 'n' motorcycles) household.
Going to 2 IC and 1 BEV is a possibility though, the additional IC might be a classic (at least in our opinion!).
OTOH, I don't rule out a PHEV if the price was right.

Shorter hours = cutting convenience, people have to think twice about whether or not it's going to be open so they divert to the supermarket on the way home. Cutting hours is a typical way to start the spiral of death for a shop - they really need to open all hours that most people would expect, so that they never have to question it.

It's great that your local garage gets the local walk in trade, but that's just one part of their overall revenues and it doesn't mean it still works as a business if they're selling 40% less fuel in ten years time and thus getting 40% less fuel buying shop customers. It may still work as a shop, but it also may not if the shop product margins have to be increased to cover the ongoing fixed costs but with less customers. Each business is unique of course, there could be factors which keep yours running for decades, even if it has to reformat a little.

As for your continued interest in getting an EV (you've been posting about this for years now ), in your situation you can probably skip the PHEV phase and go straight to full fat BEV, enjoy the real EV benefits. You don't need the backup of an IC engine in that car because you have at least one full IC car still. In reality it's likely that you won't ever actually stress about range and how far you can go in the EV once you're used to it, but I do know how it feels at the start of considering getting an EV - a bit of your brain says "a car that can only do 200 odd miles without a charge is just silly". Applying logic by reminding yourself that a very short break every ~4 hours of driving is actually pretty normal and sensible won't change the fact that a bit of your brain is still nervous about limited range... Only experience of living with and charging an EV will vanquish the range anxiety demons!

But whatever you choose, for the rest of your life - and the rest of mine, you'll be able to buy and run any car type you wish without any headaches.

[TheDeuce]

DMZ said:

I believe EVs need charging so they will surely just change the thing they sell. Perhaps in fewer locations but I have charged at petrol stations several times. Not exactly a brilliant experience but they are often in good locations and have basic facilities.

I’m not worried about the end of petrol stations anytime soon. The ones around where I’m at are very busy.

Some make sense to convert to charging hubs, many don't. The more rural ones absolutely don't make sense as charging hubs as virtually everyone local will be able to charge their EV at home, as and when they get one. Those that can't will likely not get one until there is at least a couple of residents chargers on their street.

The ones on major roads/routes make far more sense because people on longer journeys will be passing through in sufficient numbers to give them viable business.