Secondhand car price crash?
Discussion
Theoldguard said:
I don't buy into this thought that manufacturers will chose to reduce volume when things get back to normal, quite the opposite I think they will bang them out when they get the chance and look to clear the backlog as soon as.
Totally agree.As many have said, through economies of scale and having factories set up to produce volume, once they are able to churn out cars quickly again I just don't believe mainstream manufacturers will chase margins over volume.
Then you have the sales side - I cant see the average sales exec doing a couple of high margin Ford Focus sales the first week of the month then putting his feet up for 3 weeks because he's made target.
It's all connected, dealerships are expensive to build and run and need service work and add-on sales such as finance, insurance and protection to be financially viable - how do they get that without sales volume?
Chamon_Lee said:
As for the WBAC is not the market crew.
My experience over the years is that the trade will tell you whatever suits them if you are quoting any measure to compare car values, be it WBAC, Glass/Parkers, Autotrader or whatever.When WBAC for years were offering less than book value (CAP or similar) and you were trying to haggle your part-ex value up, the sales exec would tell you 'its only worth £ according to WBAC', however when the tables are turned and WBAC are offering strong money their figures are now unrepresentative of the market and rubbished.
Fusion777 said:
What’s happened to the regular graphs and tables we used to see showing vehicle valuations?
BCA probably don't want to publish the graph, however.."Wholesale used car values declined by 5.9% in March as external economic pressures, the cost-of-living squeeze and the ramifications of the conflict in Ukraine ensured a “tougher” market for retailers.
Stuart Pearson, the chief operating officer at remarketing giant BCA, said that the start of April has realised fears that the expectations of buyers and sellers were “drifting apart” after it saw the average used car sold for £9,340 last month – down by £595 month-on-month."
Jiebo said:
Khan is looking to expand ULEZ to the whole of greater London by 2023. This is a massive area and a decent amount of diesel cars that will need to shift outside of the area. Maybe this is when prices for diesel start to nose dive.
I support the change though. I live within ULEZ now and you can no longer hear the annoying diesel chatter and smell on the roads. You just don't realise how bad diesel engines fumes smell are until they are gone.
I live in Zone 6 and drive a Euro IV shed so this is going to effect me. As you say, they are noisy, smelly things and mine produces a big puff of unburnt diesel fumes when it is first started from cold.I support the change though. I live within ULEZ now and you can no longer hear the annoying diesel chatter and smell on the roads. You just don't realise how bad diesel engines fumes smell are until they are gone.
This is going to take effect from August 23, but I have ordered a new petrol car and I am hoping this will last me at least 15 years. One thing is sure, this is just the start, I am sure all diesels will be outlawed at some point as well as older petrol cars.
Pistonheader101 said:
I'm guessing now isn't the best time to pull the trigger on a Range Rover Sport 4.4 diesel
Depends on the price. I'm now doing around 13k miles per annum, just took delivery of a diesel that gets me 40mpg.
The petrol equivalent gets 30mpg, and even if petrol is 15p per litre cheaper the diesel is £600 cheaper a year to run on fuel cost.
Some people will avoid diesels despite them being the best tool for the job, which is fine, if it makes them less expensive for those of us that want one to buy one.
dan98 said:
When boggo 7 year old Polos are on sale at 14k, me and I suspect many others are just saying 'nah' and buying a 2-3k shed instead.
Possibly the reason why they're staying on sale for months on end.
Or just think I will buy a brand new Citroen C3 you, Dacia Sandero or MG3 for £13K instead. The problem is even sheds have got stupidly expensive and even £5K only buys you something that is older than ten years old. I have thrown in the towel and ordered a Dacia Stepway, it was £5K down and £72 a month. I am planning on keeping this forever now, hopefully in the next 15 years of so EVs will have sorted out the infrastructure and range issues and the ICE car will be the equivalent of a Nokia 3310 to an iPhone.Possibly the reason why they're staying on sale for months on end.
My gut feel is that prices are starting to soften, but dealers are not prepared to lower prices and there are less people willing to buy due to the cost of living.
I think we are getting close to the crossover point for EVs where mass adoption will take place, largely because of the recent price rises in the cost of fuel. I can see the prices of older, big, gas guzzling SUVs falling off a cliff in the near future.
I think smaller engined petrol cars will hold their value as these are the cars lots of people are going to want as they want to reduce their outgoings as much as possible. Smaller new cars are stupidly expensive now, and this is also dragging up the second hand prices as well.
Pistonheader101 said:
not really. Look at wages.
Pre-covid we had analyts at 30k a year. now we start them on 40k a year minimum just to get them through the door.
Do you think that annual wage increases of that magnitude are indicative of society as a whole? Pre-covid we had analyts at 30k a year. now we start them on 40k a year minimum just to get them through the door.
Or perhaps...for most wages are not keeping up with current levels of inflation.
jimPH said:
Christ, I look for hours on ebay trying to get a few pence off! Rounded off with a wider Internet search and forum opinion.
I am glad I am not the only one, when I decide I want something I will happily spend as long as it takes until I am convinced I am ordering it for the cheapest price possible. It's not even that I am that hard up for a couple of pounds I actually enjoy finding the best deal possible.Jiebo said:
Exactly this. I'm a rare breed that buys with cash and owns my cars. I've got plenty of cash spare, but I wouldn't touch any car on this market. I've been tempted because I do really want an MX5 Mk3.5 for the summer, but I'm not paying £8k for a £5k car. I earn low 6 figures, so it's not like I can't afford it, it's the principle.
Totally agree with you, I personally wouldn't buy any second hand car currently on the market either. This is not helped by the fact that because it's currently a sellers market sellers feel they have to put the minimum effort in and any old neglected heap of crap is suddenly "worth" 50% more than it was pre Covid.£5K for some 12 year old supermini with 80K on the clock that was barely worth £2K pre Covid? asking the price they were new, for 2 and 3 year old cars? Jog on
AlexNJ89 said:
therams said:
This was my experience two weeks ago
Well known dealer wanted top money for their (very nice) car but offered very very low on trade in for my current wheels
Deal couldn’t be done, so I walked
However the car I looked at is no longer on AT or their website, so someone else did buy it. Still plenty people out there willing to pay top money
If someone bought it then the stand off can definitely get even more mexican.Well known dealer wanted top money for their (very nice) car but offered very very low on trade in for my current wheels
Deal couldn’t be done, so I walked
However the car I looked at is no longer on AT or their website, so someone else did buy it. Still plenty people out there willing to pay top money
Theoldguard said:
A lot of the fun has gone, running costs are rising, majority just want a nice looking car that's reliable, affordable and easy to live with. In other markets the Chinese have been pretty good at that, along with the Koreans.
Totally agree, once a Chinese manufacturer starts selling a decent, well priced EV in the UK they are going to take a massive market share. Bit like when Huawei/OPPO/One Plus started selling mobile phones that were a quarter of the cost of the equivalent Samsung/Apple phone. The MG ZS EV is £27,745, if it was possible to buy a decent Chinese electric car for under £20K I think they would clean up.
Jiebo said:
Carzoo and the like are changing the way the model works. They recognise that nobody wants to drive around the country to buy a used car, nobody wants to check it over, nobody trusts dealers, nobody wants to negation with the dimwit dealers.
So they are disrupting the industry, and its clearly working as most people have had positive experiences from them.
The quicker the cowboy dealers disappear the better. They add zero value to the supply chain.
Spot on, I am sure everybody on this website has at some point driven miles away to look at a car at a dealer to find it is a complete heap. Or got there after driving for hours only to be told "Just sold mate". Or perhaps ended up buying something they were ultimately not happy with as they ignored the signs when viewing as they were sick of searching for cars?So they are disrupting the industry, and its clearly working as most people have had positive experiences from them.
The quicker the cowboy dealers disappear the better. They add zero value to the supply chain.
I have looked on the Cazoo site a few times and I would happily buy a car from them, they seem pretty good at pointing out every imperfection. I wouldn't be so happy about taking out their finance however, I am not sure how they treat buyers who don't require it?
Dealers ultimately offer very little, I ended up ordering my new car over the phone and the first time I will physically see the dealer is when I collect it.
Trevor555 said:
Just ordered from Toyota online.
Shame I cant pick that up straight from Derby distribution centre and bypass a dealer completely.
If the internet dealers do the job properly, it's the way forward.
I see Citroen are selling a cut price You model for £12,995 that you can only order online. Can you imagine how amazing it would be if you could literally go to a distribution centre to collect it as if you were doing click and collect at Argos.Shame I cant pick that up straight from Derby distribution centre and bypass a dealer completely.
If the internet dealers do the job properly, it's the way forward.
I am pleased the dealer I am collecting my new car from is Tiny so won't have anywhere to do that cringey sheet over the new car with a "Congratulations on your new car Mr JoeyDeacon" sign crap.
Stigrrs said:
And both of mine have gone up 2 grand on wbacs quote 2 weeks ago.
Prices inevitably are going up to meet other countries. The supply is very low from all manufacturers at the moment and this is due to various factors including chip shortage and Ukraine. It won't get better, only worse.
Cars are ballooning in value and you will see this trend continue despite some people saying its a blip. Unfortunately it's no blip, its the way things are going now.
New car prices are rising massively, supply is low and people still want nice things. The World population is still growing and demand increases more every day.
There will be exceptions to every rule but this car value rise is here to stay just like it has for years elesewhere in the World.
Lots of you will disagree currently but look again at this thread in 2 years and you will see I am correct.
Shame you weren't saying this a few weeks ago, there was another chap who used to say exactly the same thing who stopped posting just before you signed up - what a weird coincidence!Prices inevitably are going up to meet other countries. The supply is very low from all manufacturers at the moment and this is due to various factors including chip shortage and Ukraine. It won't get better, only worse.
Cars are ballooning in value and you will see this trend continue despite some people saying its a blip. Unfortunately it's no blip, its the way things are going now.
New car prices are rising massively, supply is low and people still want nice things. The World population is still growing and demand increases more every day.
There will be exceptions to every rule but this car value rise is here to stay just like it has for years elesewhere in the World.
Lots of you will disagree currently but look again at this thread in 2 years and you will see I am correct.
Fusion777 said:
RRPs have only ever increased though, as far as I can remember. I recall when you could get a Clio for £6k, Fiesta for £7k, 3-Series for £16k, 911 for £53k, and so on. Adjusted for inflation they would have been closer to today's prices, but still not quite there. Today's cars are much better though in pretty much all regards.
I purchased a new Renault Clio in 2002, at the time it cost £8800 including metallic paint. According to the Bank of England inflation calculator that is the equivalent of £13,174 today. Looking on the Renault website, the cheapest Clio is now £18,795 + £600 for paint.One other thing, I have noticed the GFV for some PCPs are falling which will increase the monthly payments.
You really can’t use WBAC as any sort of reliable indicator. It’s a snapshot of how the group which owns WBAC see the need for stock of that model more than anything else.
They use a machine learning algorithm to calculate prices and one of the big inputs to that is how much stock Cinch have. Where they need stock, they will increase the offer to keep cars flowing as it’s a volume based business.
Where they don’t, they will throttle down the number of incoming cars by dropping the price to below what the algorithm tracks/predicts based on BCA auction values and what is on the market.
If the market is saturated with a particular car at that point in time the offer will be very, very low. As stock dwindles it will increase.
It’s all automatic, highly reactive and pretty clever, but you can’t build a clear price trend from their numbers without properly understanding the inputs to the algorithm (of which there are many more than what I’ve outlined already)
So, yes, it is an indicator of market conditions but don’t hang on the price as the only thing. Higher offers may just reflect their need to not let Cinch fail through a lack of stock.
They use a machine learning algorithm to calculate prices and one of the big inputs to that is how much stock Cinch have. Where they need stock, they will increase the offer to keep cars flowing as it’s a volume based business.
Where they don’t, they will throttle down the number of incoming cars by dropping the price to below what the algorithm tracks/predicts based on BCA auction values and what is on the market.
If the market is saturated with a particular car at that point in time the offer will be very, very low. As stock dwindles it will increase.
It’s all automatic, highly reactive and pretty clever, but you can’t build a clear price trend from their numbers without properly understanding the inputs to the algorithm (of which there are many more than what I’ve outlined already)
So, yes, it is an indicator of market conditions but don’t hang on the price as the only thing. Higher offers may just reflect their need to not let Cinch fail through a lack of stock.
Edited by anonymous-user on Thursday 14th July 10:28
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