Secondhand car price crash?

[Auto810graphy]

Deep Thought said:

Sample size of one of course, but thought this was a reflection of pricing, even at the "heavy duty" end of the market.

Dec 2019 i looked at this C63 estate at a local BMW dealers - as part of their Premium Used sub-site. It had around 50K miles on it at the time and was up for £18,995, which i do recall that time was at the lower end of pricing at the time.



Roll forward to March this year and the car was traded in to a local BMW dealers with 78k miiles and appeared on their online trade auction site that i still have access to.

From memory, it made around £19,200 + buyers fees of maybe £500.

Its just turned up at another big dealers here - on at £24,995.

https://www.usedcarsni.com/2013-Mercedes-Benz-C-Cl...

So that car is 3+ years older, and UP £6,000 in price.

Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 18th March 11:45

Must be “Grind time” if Pets At Home are selling cars now

[Deep Thought]

Auto810graphy said:

Must be “Grind time” if Pets At Home are selling cars now

Thats a pic from the trade auction site. They're compound is in an industrial estate behind retail units.

The now selling dealer will no doubt have some cherished, shiny pics up of the car soon.

Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 18th March 12:48

[cheesejunkie]

Would people please refrain from using “grind time” as it will forever make my head think of bump and grind and that’s not what I think you’re on about!

I still can’t get my head around that 2019 is now four years old. Covid in my memory is like two years just blanked out of my life and I feel like 2019 was two years ago. I’m sure others may feel similar and that could help explain some valuations.

When I search cars and see 2018 ones I think fairly new, then I realise that was five years ago.

[500TORQUES]

cheesejunkie said:

Would people please refrain from using “grind time” as it will forever make my head think of bump and grind and that’s not what I think you’re on about!

I still can’t get my head around that 2019 is now four years old. Covid in my memory is like two years just blanked out of my life and I feel like 2019 was two years ago. I’m sure others may feel similar and that could help explain some valuations.

When I search cars and see 2018 ones I think fairly new, then I realise that was five years ago.

You are not alone. Two years seem to have disappeared.

[500TORQUES]

Deep Thought said:

Sample size of one of course, but thought this was a reflection of pricing, even at the "heavy duty" end of the market.

Dec 2019 i looked at this C63 estate at a local BMW dealers - as part of their Premium Used sub-site. It had around 50K miles on it at the time and was up for £18,995, which i do recall that time was at the lower end of pricing at the time.



Roll forward to March this year and the car was traded in to a local BMW dealers with 78k miiles and appeared on their online trade auction site that i still have access to.

From memory, it made around £19,200 + buyers fees of maybe £500.

Its just turned up at another big dealers here - on at £24,995.

https://www.usedcarsni.com/2013-Mercedes-Benz-C-Cl...

So that car is 3+ years older, and UP £6,000 in price.

Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 18th March 11:45

The problem is the cost to replace has gone up so much, it has lifted the price of older cars.

People need to sell for more to bridge the gap, or they are stuck with the choice of keep what you have or downsize.

This is the inevitable effect of high inflation, higher interest rates and higher cost essentially expenses without high wage growth to keep up.

People are for the first time in a generation at any real scale, becoming poorer.

[LivLL]

Some people are…

[Deep Thought]

500TORQUES said:

The problem is the cost to replace has gone up so much, it has lifted the price of older cars.

People need to sell for more to bridge the gap, or they are stuck with the choice of keep what you have or downsize.

This is the inevitable effect of high inflation, higher interest rates and higher cost essentially expenses without high wage growth to keep up.

People are for the first time in a generation at any real scale, becoming poorer.

Agreed.

What was interesting for me was that as a standalone car, that car probably feels "ok" pricewise at £24,995. It feels normal these days.

Its just when you actually see specific cars and recall the actual then and now prices that it becomes more real. I'm sure for any given car someone could say "well that would have been 20% cheaper 3 years ago", but that was just one i happen to be have been able to recall and track. Interesting the margin the dealer has on it too.

[MrManual]

Why can't people just vote with their wallets and say no to these ridiculous prices.

I currently drive a 16 year old Astra with 140k+ miles, it's worth next to nothing and I've wanted to upgrade for the last 2 years but seeing these prices has put me off entirely now as it's just getting worse and not better.

Also my car surprisingly passed it's MOT so another 12 months of hopefully cheap motoring.

I know I might be in the minority in not caring about driving around in a banger for the foreseeable future but do the general public enjoy getting bent over when it comes to buying and selling cars???

Edited by MrManual on Saturday 18th March 14:49

[Deep Thought]

MrManual said:

Why can't people just vote with their wallets and say no to these ridiculous prices.

I currently drive a 16 year old Astra with 140k+ miles, it's worth next to nothing and I've wanted to upgrade for the last 2 years but seeing these prices has put me off entirely now as it's just getting worse and not better.

Also my car surprisingly passed it's MOT so another 12 months of hopefully cheap motoring.

I know I might be in the minority in not caring about driving around in a banger for the foreseeable future but do the general public enjoy getting bent over when it comes to buying and selling cars???

Edited by MrManual on Saturday 18th March 14:49

How long do you wait though? Prices have been high for nearly 3 years. Theres no sign of anything other than normal depreciation going forward for most cars (EVs and big SUVs are the notable exceptions). Maybe its time to accept (as i have) that this is now the new normal for pricing?

[500TORQUES]

LivLL said:

Some people are…

Hence why i wrote it the way i did.

The lower 30% have been left behind for decades, it's now heading for the lower 60% to feel the squeeze.

[AlexNJ89]

Deep Thought said:

How long do you wait though? Prices have been high for nearly 3 years. Theres no sign of anything other than normal depreciation going forward for most cars (EVs and big SUVs are the notable exceptions). Maybe its time to accept (as i have) that this is now the new normal for pricing?

This is true, but surely we've got to now be looking at the global economic climate?

[ChrisH72]

I find it interesting that people can't buy these overpriced cars quickly enough. The cars I look at dipped a little in February but have now gone up even more than they were before. They seem to be selling too.

For the time being I'm afraid I am out. Now considering just keeping my perfectly good car a bit longer. With my low mileage it would probably do another 10 years if necessary.

[AlexNJ89]

ChrisH72 said:

I find it interesting that people can't buy these overpriced cars quickly enough. The cars I look at dipped a little in February but have now gone up even more than they were before. They seem to be selling too.

For the time being I'm afraid I am out. Now considering just keeping my perfectly good car a bit longer. With my low mileage it would probably do another 10 years if necessary.

People haven't stopped buying cars. My estate agent friend told me they still have 8 applicants for every rental property that goes on the market, however the sales department is completely dead, nothing is selling.

[percymk4]

ChrisH72 said:

I find it interesting that people can't buy these overpriced cars quickly enough. The cars I look at dipped a little in February but have now gone up even more than they were before. They seem to be selling too.

For the time being I'm afraid I am out. Now considering just keeping my perfectly good car a bit longer. With my low mileage it would probably do another 10 years if necessary.

Same position as me really.

Sold my FK8 Type R for a tidy profit last year, running a 106k mile 09 Fiesta for now. Runs perfectly well and have no problems keeping it until things get back to some semblance of normality. Would obviously be nice to be in a fancy car (and I am currently putting money aside for one), but there's no way I'm paying today's prices.

(Luckily I have a couple of motorbikes to scratch the "fun" itch in the meantime)

[ChrisH72]

AlexNJ89 said:

ChrisH72 said:

I find it interesting that people can't buy these overpriced cars quickly enough. The cars I look at dipped a little in February but have now gone up even more than they were before. They seem to be selling too.

For the time being I'm afraid I am out. Now considering just keeping my perfectly good car a bit longer. With my low mileage it would probably do another 10 years if necessary.

People haven't stopped buying cars. My estate agent friend told me they still have 8 applicants for every rental property that goes on the market, however the sales department is completely dead, nothing is selling.

That's what I meant, there's no shortage of buyers for all these expensive cars. That's despite all the economic doom and gloom.

I can understand people not buying houses. According to the papers a massive property price crash is imminent. In reality I'd expect them to do what usually happens in recession which is to fall slightly in the short term before going up yet again. Not dissimilar to the used car market but most people aren't really aware of car prices unless they're thinking of changing.

[nick1871]

MrManual said:

Why can't people just vote with their wallets and say no to these ridiculous prices.

I currently drive a 16 year old Astra with 140k+ miles, it's worth next to nothing and I've wanted to upgrade for the last 2 years but seeing these prices has put me off entirely now as it's just getting worse and not better.

Also my car surprisingly passed it's MOT so another 12 months of hopefully cheap motoring.

I know I might be in the minority in not caring about driving around in a banger for the foreseeable future but do the general public enjoy getting bent over when it comes to buying and selling cars???

Edited by MrManual on Saturday 18th March 14:49

For the vast majority of car buyers they just look at the current prices as the norm, they aren’t going back comparing prices from 2/3/4 years ago. They are unaware they are being ‘bent over’ as you say. I don’t agree they are being bent over, market forces dictate the prices, not the dealers.

I agree with Deep Thought, higher prices are here for the foreseeable. If you wait another 12 months the situation could be even worse.

[nickfrog]

nick1871 said:

For the vast majority of car buyers they just look at the current prices as the norm, they aren’t going back comparing prices from 2/3/4 years ago. They are unaware they are being ‘bent over’ as you say. I don’t agree they are being bent over, market forces dictate the prices, not the dealers.

I agree with Deep Thought, higher prices are here for the foreseeable. If you wait another 12 months the situation could be even worse.

I don't think many are getting bent over from a cost of change point of view. It is probably a little more than a few years ago of course but no more than inflation unless you don't have a car to sell of course or if it has not gone up commensurately. We might even be in a lower depreciation environment now overall, not unlike the level seen in similarly sized other European nations for many years.

[cheesejunkie]

ChrisH72 said:

That's what I meant, there's no shortage of buyers for all these expensive cars. That's despite all the economic doom and gloom.

I can understand people not buying houses. According to the papers a massive property price crash is imminent. In reality I'd expect them to do what usually happens in recession which is to fall slightly in the short term before going up yet again. Not dissimilar to the used car market but most people aren't really aware of car prices unless they're thinking of changing.

The car price crash relies on a myth that isn’t true. “Lots are driving cars they can’t afford”. It’s evidently bullst.

House market is different. Rental costs and mortgage costs are not sustainable, someone is going to get burned. But the bubble can go an unpredictable while yet.

The difference between houses and cars is I couldn’t give a st what houses cost as I don’t buy them every few years but some think prices matter when price to change is what counts.

[ice729091]

nickfrog said:

I don't think many are getting bent over from a cost of change point of view. It is probably a little more than a few years ago of course but no more than inflation unless you don't have a car to sell of course or if it has not gone up commensurately. We might even be in a lower depreciation environment now overall, not unlike the level seen in similarly sized other European nations for many years.

Anyone paying current used prices is clearly getting fked, as soon as supply starts returning to normal we'll see more usual rates of depreciation returning, as Covid was just a blip.

All this talk of "new normal" is nonsense.

[Deep Thought]

AlexNJ89 said:

Deep Thought said:

How long do you wait though? Prices have been high for nearly 3 years. Theres no sign of anything other than normal depreciation going forward for most cars (EVs and big SUVs are the notable exceptions). Maybe its time to accept (as i have) that this is now the new normal for pricing?

This is true, but surely we've got to now be looking at the global economic climate?

Do people really though?

The economic outlook appears much better than we were being told 6 months ago. Inflation to go down by year end, interest rates about to peak, energy prices on their way down....

Does Joe Public really care about the global economic climate? And when has there not been a global economic climate of some sort looming to worry about?