Secondhand car price crash? (Vol. 2)

[ChocolateFrog]

Wilmslowboy said:

AlexNJ89 said:

Sounds like the market isn't good then.

Reason I asked was I have a car for sale and over the years I've witnessed people rejecting offers of say .. £30k .. on a car listed for £34k not realising the market is declining fast, then a few months later the market continues to go down and they end up having to accept £28k. And I don't want to do the same.

Happened to me back in 2018 (mkt slowdown).
Had my car listed, and ended up negotiating with a potential buyer over £2k (he walked away), ended up selling the car for £20k less than his offer about 5 months later.

Jebus.

I've had plenty of offers rejected on to see the asking price drop below my offer.

Takes both parties to be sensible and realistic. I've also rejected a fair share of low ball offers. Don't think I've ever been drastically stung as a seller, the V8 Touarwg was the hardest to shift but that was because of the top rate road tax.

[buyerandseller]

AlexNJ89 said:

Wilmslowboy said:

Happened to me back in 2018 (mkt slowdown).
Had my car listed, and ended up negotiating with a potential buyer over £2k (he walked away), ended up selling the car for £20k less than his offer about 5 months later.

That's my fear. I want as much as poss for the car, but we're coming in to car buying season now so I don't want to reduce it and miss out on cash, but if I've overpriced it and miss the summer sports car demand I've lost my selling opportunity.

Now you know what it's like to be a motor trader who face this dilemma every day, not so easy is it.

[Wilmslowboy]

AlexNJ89 said:

Wilmslowboy said:

Happened to me back in 2018 (mkt slowdown).
Had my car listed, and ended up negotiating with a potential buyer over £2k (he walked away), ended up selling the car for £20k less than his offer about 5 months later.

That's my fear. I want as much as poss for the car, but we're coming in to car buying season now so I don't want to reduce it and miss out on cash, but if I've overpriced it and miss the summer sports car demand I've lost my selling opportunity.

It was a £150k plus Mclaren so in % terms around 15% hit, if I were selling a sports car in a hurry (in todays mkt), i'd just pop it on collecting cars.

[Tisy]

AlexNJ89 said:

That's my fear. I want as much as poss for the car, but we're coming in to car buying season now so I don't want to reduce it and miss out on cash, but if I've overpriced it and miss the summer sports car demand I've lost my selling opportunity.

Unless it's under £4k then take the first offer serious private buyer offer you get, is my advice, otherwise you'll end up chasing the market down. Anything high 4 figures or above will most likely be buyers needing finance which you can't provide. Be aware that the low-ball offers you'll get for 60-75% of your asking price are actually dealers posing as private buyers trying to source stock. You'll find this out when asking them if the car is for themself, they'll say yes then ask for their name and address for the change of ownership and they want you to send it into trade.

[AlexNJ89]

Tisy said:

Unless it's under £4k then take the first offer serious private buyer offer you get, is my advice, otherwise you'll end up chasing the market down. Anything high 4 figures or above will most likely be buyers needing finance which you can't provide. Be aware that the low-ball offers you'll get for 60-75% of your asking price are actually dealers posing as private buyers trying to source stock. You'll find this out when asking them if the car is for themself, they'll say yes then ask for their name and address for the change of ownership and they want you to send it into trade.

Yep, I agree about the finance. I was considering a sale or return deal but they all wanted quite a large % as a fee.

[AlexNJ89]

I thought I'd bump this thread for a review and update.

I was on the side years ago of saying there will be a crash. But I think those who were saying there won't be we conclude were correct.

I'd be keen to hear how people are finding the market right now though with all the negativity about the economy and also the upcoming budget.

I sold my car (what I think) very cheap, it was for sale for about 3 months, it's the slowest I've ever experienced the market.

Now I'm a buyer, I'm finding that most cars aren't selling and also been for sale for many many months, but buyer's aren't reducing.

Anyone else got a feel for the market atm?

[highway]

I sold my daily A1 within 2 weeks of the advert going live. Got what I wanted as well. The car was 2014 with 49k.
I sold my Emira in August. The dealer who bought it still had it for sale.
I fancied an S1 Audi to use as a daily. Low mileage, unmodified cars sell quickly at a premium.
I bought a low miles S3. Again, they seem to sell quickly.
I’d like another fun car. I have several on my saved list. Is Auto Trader. Low mileage cars sell fast if they aren’t massively over the top on price.
Lots of private sellers seem to think they can ask retail money for cars.
The market seems ok to me.

[paulguitar]

I've noticed that the Autotrader suggested selling price for my 981S has increased by a couple of £k in the last year, despite it being a year older with another 4,000 miles.

[drgoatboy]

Felt like the prices went up slightly in the summer and has started to come back down again. Probably within normal patterns but I don't know if thats true.

I think in this age of such easy price comparisons it somewhat levels the field, private sellers seem to not want to price lower than dealers (which is a bit daft) and dealers seem to be happy (or unable?) to not lower prices so the market feels really static.

The big crash has never come, prices definitely trended downwards over the last 18 months but the big shock adjustment just didn't happen.

[Mr Mill]

Autotrader data shows things are largely back to where they would've been had covid/semiconductor shortage etc. not happened.
No "crash" but certainly around a 10% correction in prices between the peak of Jan '23 and Summer '24.

[SFTWend]

I bought a three year old Volvo XC40 in August 23 when many on this thread were convinced a crash was imminent. I felt confident a crash wouldn't happen due to a shortage of petrol cars manufactured or sold during Covid.

There appeared to be a 10% drop in the trade but I didn't see this reflected in retail prices. Recently sold the Volvo through Carwow for a great price, more than I'd have achieved privately, and the buying dealer quickly sold it on for a 10% gross profit.

I think the market is mixed at present and is perhaps make/model/age sensitive. For example, just bought a six month old ex demo Golf GTi. Most dealers had a demo to sell so prices were competitive. I purchased for c.25% below its new price, which I thought was a good deal. Conversely, I noticed a Maserati specialist is wanting stock because demand is high and he'd sold everything.

I think selling privately is harder as many buyers want px, finance and warranty.

Edited by SFTWend on Thursday 13th November 13:10

[MB140]

AlexNJ89 said:

I thought I'd bump this thread for a review and update.

I was on the side years ago of saying there will be a crash. But I think those who were saying there won't be we conclude were correct.

I'd be keen to hear how people are finding the market right now though with all the negativity about the economy and also the upcoming budget.

I sold my car (what I think) very cheap, it was for sale for about 3 months, it's the slowest I've ever experienced the market.

Now I'm a buyer, I'm finding that most cars aren't selling and also been for sale for many many months, but buyer's aren't reducing.

Anyone else got a feel for the market atm?

I had a Porsche cayman 981 GTS I went to look at but decided against it. It was in my Autotrader saved adds for 27 weeks and never went down a penny. It must be costing the dealer a fortune in stocking loan to keep it sat on a forecourt for that long and not reducing the price.

There was also a Kyalami Green Audi TTRS I had saved for 18 weeks and that never budged in price either but it has disappeared from sale so I assume sold.

[AlexNJ89]

MB140 said:

I had a Porsche cayman 981 GTS I went to look at but decided against it. It was in my Autotrader saved adds for 27 weeks and never went down a penny. It must be costing the dealer a fortune in stocking loan to keep it sat on a forecourt for that long and not reducing the price.

There was also a Kyalami Green Audi TTRS I had saved for 18 weeks and that never budged in price either but it has disappeared from sale so I assume sold.

Yeah I can't bring myself to buy a car in these circumstances because I know I'm over paying and means when it comes to sell there is absolutely no way I'm getting close to what I bought it for.

[Deep Thought]

AlexNJ89 said:

MB140 said:

I had a Porsche cayman 981 GTS I went to look at but decided against it. It was in my Autotrader saved adds for 27 weeks and never went down a penny. It must be costing the dealer a fortune in stocking loan to keep it sat on a forecourt for that long and not reducing the price.

There was also a Kyalami Green Audi TTRS I had saved for 18 weeks and that never budged in price either but it has disappeared from sale so I assume sold.

Yeah I can't bring myself to buy a car in these circumstances because I know I'm over paying and means when it comes to sell there is absolutely no way I'm getting close to what I bought it for.

Are you not going to be up against that forever though?

Buying something at dealer retail price then selling it down the line privately or trading in always will create a notable delta compared to what you bought it for?

Remind me - are you looking for a weekend toy / second or third car, or a daily driver? If its the latter i budget for 50% depreciation every three years as a rule of thumb. If its a weekend toy / secord or third car, its still very hard to buy at dealer retail price and then get anywhere near that come resale time.

[ChocolateFrog]

My feeling (not being in the trade) is that private sales are dwindling even further, you need to be really cheap for people to take the gamble.

I'm keeping an eye on the Alphard/Vellfire market for a potential purchase in a year or so.

The reputable dealers seems to be able to sell for a good price and quickly too. Especially stuff that's low miles and a high grade and spec. The same cars don't seem to sell when the private owner wants to move them on even for substantially less.

[AlexNJ89]

Deep Thought said:

Are you not going to be up against that forever though?

Buying something at dealer retail price then selling it down the line privately or trading in always will create a notable delta compared to what you bought it for?

Remind me - are you looking for a weekend toy / second or third car, or a daily driver? If its the latter i budget for 50% depreciation every three years as a rule of thumb. If its a weekend toy / secord or third car, its still very hard to buy at dealer retail price and then get anywhere near that come resale time.

I mean in addition to the depreciation and retail margin.

I'm someone who buys cars who have pretty much done most their depreciation and I try buy private. Reason being is I like to experience a lot of different cars so keep them for 6-12 months then move them on. If I don't sell them for close to what I bought them for it becomes an expensive hobby.

[Deep Thought]

ChocolateFrog said:

My feeling (not being in the trade) is that private sales are dwindling even further, you need to be really cheap for people to take the gamble.

I'm keeping an eye on the Alphard/Vellfire market for a potential purchase in a year or so.

The reputable dealers seems to be able to sell for a good price and quickly too. Especially stuff that's low miles and a high grade and spec. The same cars don't seem to sell when the private owner wants to move them on even for substantially less.

That has not been my finding - though everyone at the time told me the cars wouldnt sell.

Right car, right price and it will sell privately.

I think many people make the mistake of thinking that if it doesnt sell in a week when they go to sell it, then its too expensive and they must advertise it at a give-it-away price to get rid.

For something like you're looking at which is a little bit niche, come resale time i'd be pricing it sensibly and holding on tight for the right customer.

Yes, if its some cooking variant like a Qashqai or something then those will sell quite quickly, but odd ball stuff, you have to wait for that one person to wake up some morning and think "hmmmm, i'd like to buy an XYZ today."

Any of my recent cars have been fairly oddball relative to the mass market and they have all sold for sensible money - given time. BMW 630i, BMW 330i 6 cylinder, mk4 R32, BMW Z4 Coupe, modified year old Cooper S, most recently a 2018 M2.

I've set myself 3 months to sell those, priced them sensibly compared to dealer retail and they have all sold.

The M2. WBAC were talking £18K, dealers were happy to "take it off my hands" at £19K. I put it on at £24,995 and got £24,500 for it. Private buyer who drove 100 miles to come view it.

Also of note - those all sold via Facebook marketplace.

Edited by Deep Thought on Friday 14th November 10:21

[Deep Thought]

AlexNJ89 said:

I mean in addition to the depreciation and retail margin.

I'm someone who buys cars who have pretty much done most their depreciation and I try buy private. Reason being is I like to experience a lot of different cars so keep them for 6-12 months then move them on. If I don't sell them for close to what I bought them for it becomes an expensive hobby.

Thats what i did for a number of years also. I think i managed to break even on most of them.

Yes, most were bought privately and all were sold again privately. One year i'd an oldish Boxster as a weekend toy and a Volvo S40 T5 as a daily. Ran them for a year. Lost £100 on the Volvo, made £100 on the Porsche.

I think the market out there would still allow someone to do that if they wanted to - and if you are continuing to do - particularly in stuff thats lost most of its value already.

[ChocolateFrog]

Deep Thought said:

ChocolateFrog said:

My feeling (not being in the trade) is that private sales are dwindling even further, you need to be really cheap for people to take the gamble.

I'm keeping an eye on the Alphard/Vellfire market for a potential purchase in a year or so.

The reputable dealers seems to be able to sell for a good price and quickly too. Especially stuff that's low miles and a high grade and spec. The same cars don't seem to sell when the private owner wants to move them on even for substantially less.

That has not been my finding - though everyone at the time told me the cars wouldnt sell.

Right car, right price and it will sell privately.

I think many people make the mistake of thinking that if it doesnt sell in a week when they go to sell it, then its too expensive.

For something like you're looking at which is a little bit niche, come resale time i'd be pricing it sensibly and holding on tight for the right customer.

Yes, if its some cooking variant like a Qashqai or something then those will sell quite quickly, but odd ball stuff, you have to wait for that one person to wake up some morning and think "hmmmm, i'd like to buy an XYZ today."

Any of my recent cars have been fairly oddball relative to the mass market and they have all sold for sensible money - given time. BMW 630i, BMW 330i 6 cylinder, mk4 R32, BMW Z4 Coupe, modified year old Cooper S, most recently a 2018 M2.

I've set myself 3 months to sell those, priced them sensibly compared to dealer retail and they have all sold.

The M2. WBAC were talking £18K, dealers were happy to "take it off my hands" at £19K. I put it on at £24,995 and got £24,500 for it. Private buyer who drove 100 miles to come view it.

Also of note - those all sold via Facebook marketplace.

Fair enough, the last car I sold was a V8 Touareg I've previously mentioned. Was a tough sell but I held relatively firm and sold after a few months.

I rarely scan Auto trader these days.

eBay is still my go-to with Marketplace a close second.

Never look on PH, other than the odd highlighted auction.

[Deep Thought]

ChocolateFrog said:

Fair enough, the last car I sold was a V8 Touareg I've previously mentioned. Was a tough sell but I held relatively firm and sold after a few months.

I rarely scan Auto trader these days.

eBay is still my go-to with Marketplace a close second.

Never look on PH, other than the odd highlighted auction.

Yeah i think you did the right thing RE: the V8 Touareg. Definitely an acquired taste, but theres a customer out there. Often its just a waiting game. I think of it like going fishing - you just have to wait on that one bite.

I've never had any luck with PH adverts and ebay either for that matter.

I do tend to stick what i'm selling on AT but its always FB that gets the responses. Yes, you've to sift through the dolts who want something for nothing but i just reply "no thanks" or ignore to people offering to "take it off my hands for <half the asking price>, cash today m8" types.

If i was buying probably AT is still my go to, and FB.