Secondhand car price crash? (Vol. 2)

[SFTWend]

loskie said:

Dealers using WBAC as a price guide is a con though isn't it?

WBAC put their cars into auctions so there's logistic, prep, indemnity and auction running costs. Plus hopefully for BCA some profit on their sale price.

Dealers then buy from Auction and have fees and logistic costs. Plus time.

So the dealer should be paying more than WBAC

Correct. Dealers, often franchised ones, often quote WBAC valuation for a px in the knowledge many owners don't know this.

[griffter]

I was in the crash camp. I couldn’t see how prices and behaviours could be sustained, but they were. Cheap money and necessity I suppose.

Anyway last year I bought three cars. Two modern (ish) and a classic. None very extravagant.

I think the classic market is taking a hit right now. Varied as always but some attractive prices on older stuff (pre 1970). The modern classic and modern markets seem to be holding up more or less, just at a new normal. I think a lot of that is down to inflation though. Perhaps affordability is about the same?

[highway]

Councils are struggling across the UK. Plenty now operate their own version of ULEZ. That’s an easy cash cow. How long till these schemes proliferate and using non compliant vehicles becomes impossible without cost?

[Deep Thought]

griffter said:

I was in the crash camp. I couldn t see how prices and behaviours could be sustained, but they were. Cheap money and necessity I suppose.

Anyway last year I bought three cars. Two modern (ish) and a classic. None very extravagant.

I think the classic market is taking a hit right now. Varied as always but some attractive prices on older stuff (pre 1970). The modern classic and modern markets seem to be holding up more or less, just at a new normal. I think a lot of that is down to inflation though. Perhaps affordability is about the same?

I would concur RE: the classic market.

A friend of mine dabbles in the classic stuff - classic Minis, mk1 & mk2 Golf GTIs, that sort of stuff. Says its dead in the water.

More modern stuff like 205 1.9GTIs and things like that might be faring better.

[South tdf]

Have been looking at XJS over the past month as my father had a new Convertible in 1988 and it’s one of the 1st cars I have a memory of.

Out of the two I have been to see both were reduced and in the lower half of market pricing but neither were very nice by any means despite the sellers saying they were.

Am also looking at getting rid of my Aston as it has done less than 2000 miles this year and having tried Motorway and the main dealer it seems higher end cars are no longer in demand.

[irish boy]

Deep Thought said:

I would concur RE: the classic market.

A friend of mine dabbles in the classic stuff - classic Minis, mk1 & mk2 Golf GTIs, that sort of stuff. Says its dead in the water.

More modern stuff like 205 1.9GTIs and things like that might be faring better.

Mk2 golf gti's and 205 gti's are the same era. I think the problem with the classic market is that only a very small percentage of what comes up for sale is genuinely very good. No rust, complete interior, proper regular servicing (not cambelt done 5k miles ago.....in 2002) suspension refreshed etc etc.

People put the dross up for high prices and....for a while there they were selling. Now more normality has resumed and when it doesn’t sell the classic market has crashed. No it hasn’t, your car isn't worth what you’re asking and never was. A properly sorted example of your car is, and will sell if marketed correctly. But those only make up 20% or less of whats on offer.

[Wilmslowboy]

I thought I would revisit the thread and the long term data.

Used car prices appear to have only gone up 21% over the past five years (from £14,014 to £17,087), which is actually below inflation (28% same period), which seems out of whack with anecdotal sentiment. However, during the same period the average age of cars (on the road) has increased from 8.4 to 9.6 years, meaning the typical used car being sold might also be a year plus older.






https://plc.autotrader.co.uk/news-views/retail-pri...

[Deep Thought]

irish boy said:

Deep Thought said:

I would concur RE: the classic market.

A friend of mine dabbles in the classic stuff - classic Minis, mk1 & mk2 Golf GTIs, that sort of stuff. Says its dead in the water.

More modern stuff like 205 1.9GTIs and things like that might be faring better.

Mk2 golf gti's and 205 gti's are the same era. I think the problem with the classic market is that only a very small percentage of what comes up for sale is genuinely very good. No rust, complete interior, proper regular servicing (not cambelt done 5k miles ago.....in 2002) suspension refreshed etc etc.

People put the dross up for high prices and....for a while there they were selling. Now more normality has resumed and when it doesn t sell the classic market has crashed. No it hasn t, your car isn't worth what you re asking and never was. A properly sorted example of your car is, and will sell if marketed correctly. But those only make up 20% or less of whats on offer.

Meant to reply at the time. Yes, you're right, they're both from the same era. In my mind the 1.9 GTI came later.

And yes, there were people who were putting sub standard cars on at silly money and "some" were being sold at or near that.

A friend of mine dabbles in the classic market and to be honest he pretty much buys dross - cars in need of a lot of work - and then thinks they're worth a fortune. "I bought this for £5K and i'm going to ask £10K for it, as mint ones are worth £20K". Yes, but yours needs £20K spent on it to get it to that standard.

Hes got himself well stuck with a load of stuff thats going nowhere but in his mind its "worth" a lot of money.

[Deep Thought]

Wilmslowboy said:

I thought I would revisit the thread and the long term data.

Used car prices appear to have only gone up 21% over the past five years (from £14,014 to £17,087), which is actually below inflation (28% same period), which seems out of whack with anecdotal sentiment. However, during the same period the average age of cars (on the road) has increased from 8.4 to 9.6 years, meaning the typical used car being sold might also be a year plus older.






https://plc.autotrader.co.uk/news-views/retail-pri...

Interesting - though without all the detail its hard to interpret what that means, as you say. Average cars for sale could be older, indeed.

New cars are silly money, used cars make a % of their price new as a rough rule of thumb. 'Twas always the same.

So more expensive new cars = more expensive used cars.

There are some relative bargains out there - ie, cars that are "cheap" relative to others on offer - but they're not really bargains relative to what they could have been bought for pre COVID.

I did ok on my M2. Depreciation was as expected over the two years i owned it. The days of buying an M car and getting all or most of your money back some years down the line are long gone (at least on daily driver variants anyway). I certainly didnt blown my brains out on it, as some nay sayers would have had me believe (a crash is just around the corner, month in month out).

My subsequent C43 seems to be doing quite well. 2019 car. Bought AMG Approved Used in Feb 2025 for £21,995 with the full AMG Approved Used 2 year warranty and full AMG Mercedes history. Thats going to work out relatively well come resale time.

[nickfrog]

Deep Thought said:

My subsequent C43 seems to be doing quite well. 2019 car. Bought AMG Approved Used in Feb 2025 for £21,995 with the full AMG Approved Used 2 year warranty and full AMG Mercedes history. Thats going to work out relatively well come resale time.

DT, this seems excellent VFM, particularly with that warranty. I had no idea about those.

A bit of data about my OG M2 manual:

- bought AOC March 20 at 7k miles for £29k.
- sold privately December 22 at 16k miles for £33k.
- bought back privately December 25 at 24k miles for £27k.

I probably paid a little too much but I value the provenance :biglaughter: , the recent big service, the x4 new PS4S and new battery... I am still budgeting £250/month depreciation, like the first time around!

[Deep Thought]

nickfrog said:

DT, this seems excellent VFM, particularly with that warranty. I had no idea about those.

A bit of data about my OG M2 manual:

- bought AOC March 20 at 7k miles for £29k.
- sold privately December 22 at 16k miles for £33k.
- bought back privately December 25 at 24k miles for £27k.

I probably paid a little too much but I value the provenance :biglaughter: , the recent big service, the x4 new PS4S and new battery... I am still budgeting £250/month depreciation, like the first time around!

It was on at £25,995 originally in their Belfast site and they dropped it back £1K at a time, then moved it to their Portadown site who dropped it another £2K. I was on the mainland with work at the time and had been watching it and when they did the price drop to £21995 i hit the "reserve now for £99" option. Went the following day and viewed and transferred the balance. They said they were selling it at a loss at that price and i'm inclined to believe them, but either way it was good value. I got a wheel refurb they'd missed thrown in to the deal also.

I'd say i've got about £2K of value out of the warranty so far. two suspension arms, a shock absorber (i paid for the matching other side to keep them balanced), window switch, thermostat. Granted, that'd all have been cheaper at a local indy, but done "free" under warranty.

I'd the C43, M340i and S4 on my radar if i saw one at the right price, and this came up first.

Their warranty is really good as if its an AMG and has a full MBSH it gets a 2 year AMG warranty. Even i'd bought an M340i (or full M car for that matter) Approved Used from BMW it'd only get a years warranty.

You did well on the M2. Its nice, as you were in the market again, to be able to buy your own back. I wouldnt say no to another M2 at some point - i really loved mine, but the right car with the right spec and provenance is hard to come by.

[Kerniki]

Its funny how those good times stick in peoples minds 2019 -2022 purchases you couldnt go wrong with a car and i think those expectations on re-sale are still around and strong judging by auction failures at the moment

Its very hard to accept that normal depreciation is back to normal if you bought your car at the high point, I bought a couple of supercars at exactly the wrong time one i sold, one i still have, the latter is coming round as collectable so i’ll just hold onto that one for now..

But i think people buying today know they’re buying into that ‘normal’ depreciation curve again, so its making them far more cautious at the buying point so as to negate that loss as much as possible.

Auctions arent achieving anything like reserves, CC ‘Supercar Sunday’ was probably 88% unsold, i negotiated after auction on a few & owners were still in denial about true values of their cars nowadays.

I think the A1 low mileage collectors examples of 300k plus are still doing ok but they’re more spec sensitive than ever as a large % of wealthy are moving away from commodities.

A funny one that ive just come across is the gt4 RS market where it was launched amidst the peak ‘cant go wrong’ period where they were demanding double overs at £240k now just 2 years later? £120 and quite a few of them..

[macron]

What did you sell and what do you still have, Kerniki?

[Sheepshanks]

Kerniki said:

I think the A1 low mileage collectors examples of 300k plus are still doing ok but they re more spec sensitive than ever as a large % of wealthy are moving away from commodities.

I wonder how much of that is people leaving or thinking of leaving the UK?

[Kerniki]

Sheepshanks said:

Kerniki said:

I think the A1 low mileage collectors examples of 300k plus are still doing ok but they re more spec sensitive than ever as a large % of wealthy are moving away from commodities.

I wonder how much of that is people leaving or thinking of leaving the UK?

Sort of is but not isolated to Uk, it’s European wide, commodity dumping to become more transient, most likely because of war worries, been happening since Ukraine was invaded and has been escalating over circa 3 years, from what reports have said and from my circle of friends, funnily gold has been increasing at the same rate, many a hole has been dug

[Kerniki]

I find him hard to watch but his points were bang on from my standing..

https://youtu.be/N0fi9EBKG38?si=3BC2SsMABl2UOLq0

[the-photographer]

Its January 2025, what are market conditions like?

Anyone in the trade want to comment?

[ABMA]

the-photographer said:

Its January 2025, what are market conditions like?

Anyone in the trade want to comment?

Not in the trade, but watching Autotrader most days.
Currently there are circa 428k cars on sale on AT down from 450k in December.
All well priced/ spec’d cars sell quickly. I enquired about a car last week on FB marketplace two hours after the advert went live and it was sold then.
So seems cars are selling.

[ThingsBehindTheSun]

I have been looking at pre registered MG3s, the absolute cheapest ones seem to be selling pretty quickly at just under £16k for the trophy.

Not surprised, £16k for a 194 BHP hybrid that does 0 to 60 in 6.7 seconds (according to carwow) with heated seats, 360 camera etc. Seems crazy value.

[Chris_91]

ABMA said:

Not in the trade, but watching Autotrader most days.
Currently there are circa 428k cars on sale on AT down from 450k in December.
All well priced/ spec d cars sell quickly. I enquired about a car last week on FB marketplace two hours after the advert went live and it was sold then.
So seems cars are selling.

Don't forget this is also due to a lot of dealers downgrading their packages (less cars advertised) or have left altogether.