£100-150k Pension Pot car: 10-15yrs High Risk!
Discussion
roca1976 said:
I would like something useable for fair weather use (circa 2k p.a) and I think it needs to be £100 - 150k to maximise the strongest return.
I think you'll find you have 2,000 very expensive miles. The words "car" and "investment" rarely fit comfortably in the same sentence.roca1976 said:
Do we expect bona fide classics like a 1955 Aston DB2/4 or a pre A 356 bomb out as the age profile of the loaded 35-55 year olds in 2040 couldn't give a damn about them?
It's so pretty...https://www.carandclassic.com/l/C1994077
Of no interest to me, but E type prices have come way way down from where they were, peaked in 2016. It's so pretty...https://www.carandclassic.com/l/C1994077
Which could mean -
1) There was a speculative bubble, big in Japan, now popped
2) They are now a bargain
3) They never were that special
4) They were very special and will be appreciated again
5) They could rocket again
6) They could stagnate
In terms of bona fide classics, they'll be a lot of data out there on E type sale prices, so maybe study that for an example of potential up and down side.
Maybe a left field choice, a Lexus LC500.
They are the last of a dying breed 5L V8 NA engine and production already stopped 2024. (Around 600 sold in the UK from 2017-2024; and that s including both the V8 and hybrid variants).
The V8s are holding their values now and good chance might become future classic.
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202509106...
They are the last of a dying breed 5L V8 NA engine and production already stopped 2024. (Around 600 sold in the UK from 2017-2024; and that s including both the V8 and hybrid variants).
The V8s are holding their values now and good chance might become future classic.
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202509106...
The problem you will have is that in 15 years, unless it is a really desirable petrol car, that's either great on track or rare, then it's going to be worthless.
Come 2040, car tech will have moved on, modern cars of the 2030s will be far superior. Petrol cars will be slowing coming off the roads. Petrol prices will be even higher. It's then who on earth is going to buy it from you in the future?
The Porsche's that you've mentioned are great cars now but in 15 years will they still be? A 15 year 911 GT3RS is around £120k. Not sure you'll be getting that in another 15 years with the equivalent GT3 RS come 2040 that's 15 years old.
If I were going to buy a car then it would be something rare. Something that will definitely go up in value like a Honda NSX for example.
Come 2040, car tech will have moved on, modern cars of the 2030s will be far superior. Petrol cars will be slowing coming off the roads. Petrol prices will be even higher. It's then who on earth is going to buy it from you in the future?
The Porsche's that you've mentioned are great cars now but in 15 years will they still be? A 15 year 911 GT3RS is around £120k. Not sure you'll be getting that in another 15 years with the equivalent GT3 RS come 2040 that's 15 years old.
If I were going to buy a car then it would be something rare. Something that will definitely go up in value like a Honda NSX for example.
As many have said the key is to buy something I really want and hope it appreciates but it wouldn't be a total show stopper if it didn't break even, however I don't want to be left trying to sell an undesirable paperweight!
I think the generation likely to be able to spend decent coin in 2040 are probably 25-35 years old now and would still desire a manual naturally aspirated supercar?
I like to think the government won't tax them off the road and synthetic fuels develop at pace. It won't be a cheap hobby but car people with the equivalent of £100k to spend on their hobby car will suck it up because there is no other alternative .
I think the generation likely to be able to spend decent coin in 2040 are probably 25-35 years old now and would still desire a manual naturally aspirated supercar?
I like to think the government won't tax them off the road and synthetic fuels develop at pace. It won't be a cheap hobby but car people with the equivalent of £100k to spend on their hobby car will suck it up because there is no other alternative .
roca1976 said:
As many have said the key is to buy something I really want and hope it appreciates but it wouldn't be a total show stopper if it didn't break even, however I don't want to be left trying to sell an undesirable paperweight!
I think the generation likely to be able to spend decent coin in 2040 are probably 25-35 years old now and would still desire a manual naturally aspirated supercar?
I like to think the government won't tax them off the road and synthetic fuels develop at pace. It won't be a cheap hobby but car people with the equivalent of £100k to spend on their hobby car will suck it up because there is no other alternative.
I think you are definitely approaching this in the wrong way and will likely get burned, or not enjoy the car over the period, for fear of the mileage being too high, having to spend top money on servicing to protect the provenance and worrying about where you keep the car, just in case.I think the generation likely to be able to spend decent coin in 2040 are probably 25-35 years old now and would still desire a manual naturally aspirated supercar?
I like to think the government won't tax them off the road and synthetic fuels develop at pace. It won't be a cheap hobby but car people with the equivalent of £100k to spend on their hobby car will suck it up because there is no other alternative.
Maybe revise your budget downwards and buy a car for the love of it, enjoy it, and don't fuss over it.
maz8062 said:
Maybe revise your budget downwards and buy a car for the love of it, enjoy it, and don't fuss over it.
I was going to say something similar.Maybe half your budget, buy something to enjoy and invest the other half.
Even half of your budget will open up some very nice options.
ABMA said:
Maybe a left field choice, a Lexus LC500.
They are the last of a dying breed 5L V8 NA engine and production already stopped 2024. (Around 600 sold in the UK from 2017-2024; and that s including both the V8 and hybrid variants).
The V8s are holding their values now and good chance might become future classic.
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202509106...
Out of all the cars suggested, the lexus is the one least likely to be ruinous, and will only need it's yearly service. Its also the choice I'd make if being sensible. Certainly more interesting than some bmw or porsche imo. They are the last of a dying breed 5L V8 NA engine and production already stopped 2024. (Around 600 sold in the UK from 2017-2024; and that s including both the V8 and hybrid variants).
The V8s are holding their values now and good chance might become future classic.
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202509106...
Would it feel as special as a ferrari, lambo, or mclaren? Possibly not.
Take out the word investment out and the choice is more difficult. Want something that will return most of your capital, inc running costs, and it's the lexus.
BigMon said:
maz8062 said:
Maybe revise your budget downwards and buy a car for the love of it, enjoy it, and don't fuss over it.
I was going to say something similar.Maybe half your budget, buy something to enjoy and invest the other half.
Even half of your budget will open up some very nice options.
AMG GT R they'll never make them again, the new car shares the name but that's it:
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202603140...
S:
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202511157...
Mclaren 12C:
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202509096...
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202511208...
997 GT3:
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202407011...
Manual V10 R8:
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202602179...
V12 Vantage:
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202602170...
Emira, these are great car & will now be steady when it comes to depreciation:
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202601239...
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202603160...
Your chance of achieving what you want (returns at 1.25x the rate of inflation over 15 years) is almost nil.
Assuming you purchase for 150 k, you would need to sell in year 15 at nearly 500k to achieve your desired rate of return. Add 5-10k per annum for storage, service, consumables, insurance, and you'd need to add about another 150k just to breakeven. So sell cost of 650k ish in 15 years to meet your target.
I don't think this is remotely realistic for any of the cars you suggest - none of these are particularly special, or limited edition or with racing heritage. As you will be using the car, it will also not be investment grade. So you either sell it as normal grade (for much less) or pay to have it restored (at high cost).
Your investment thesis is that petrol cars of this type won't be banned or taxed to death but some magic will happen with 'sustainable' fuels. This is almost a contradictory position. You also do not consider the risk that the EV/net zero train is derailed and companies once again produce cars which would be direct competitors to what you are proposing as an investment - you already see this trend with companies doing a 180 on EVs and with smaller outfits like Gordon Murray stepping in to meet market demand. - see also the 6.7 litree Corvette announced.
For the return you are looking for you are competing with the traditional supercar manufacturers, new companies, the restoration specialists and professional speculators who will keep their cars in air controlled storage. All who will have a significantly more attractive product than your 20 year old used car. Yours will also be LHD so have a much smaller buyer universe than others when it comes time to sell.
If you genuinely are looking at high-risk high-return investments, then this is not one of them. This is a high-risk low-return investment with significant ongoing hold costs in an illiquid asset. You will likely lose money on the car even before inflation. The chance of achieving the returns you want (which aren't even high) is very low.
If you want to buy a nice car and are really just boasting about how big your pension is then buy a car.
Assuming you purchase for 150 k, you would need to sell in year 15 at nearly 500k to achieve your desired rate of return. Add 5-10k per annum for storage, service, consumables, insurance, and you'd need to add about another 150k just to breakeven. So sell cost of 650k ish in 15 years to meet your target.
I don't think this is remotely realistic for any of the cars you suggest - none of these are particularly special, or limited edition or with racing heritage. As you will be using the car, it will also not be investment grade. So you either sell it as normal grade (for much less) or pay to have it restored (at high cost).
Your investment thesis is that petrol cars of this type won't be banned or taxed to death but some magic will happen with 'sustainable' fuels. This is almost a contradictory position. You also do not consider the risk that the EV/net zero train is derailed and companies once again produce cars which would be direct competitors to what you are proposing as an investment - you already see this trend with companies doing a 180 on EVs and with smaller outfits like Gordon Murray stepping in to meet market demand. - see also the 6.7 litree Corvette announced.
For the return you are looking for you are competing with the traditional supercar manufacturers, new companies, the restoration specialists and professional speculators who will keep their cars in air controlled storage. All who will have a significantly more attractive product than your 20 year old used car. Yours will also be LHD so have a much smaller buyer universe than others when it comes time to sell.
If you genuinely are looking at high-risk high-return investments, then this is not one of them. This is a high-risk low-return investment with significant ongoing hold costs in an illiquid asset. You will likely lose money on the car even before inflation. The chance of achieving the returns you want (which aren't even high) is very low.
If you want to buy a nice car and are really just boasting about how big your pension is then buy a car.
Hi, I am definitely not trying to boast about pension pots, who knows I might not even make it to pension age...
I am just interested to test the theory that a f430 manual (or similar) might realistically be worth £150k in ten years time and I can walk away with a nice lump sum. If I chose not to try and buy the best potential investment car I would probably just max out the premium bonds and continue to waste money buying and selling inappropriate cars.
I probably need to be more realistic and reduce annual mileage to 1k p.a to stop it just becoming a leggy old Ferrari...
I am just interested to test the theory that a f430 manual (or similar) might realistically be worth £150k in ten years time and I can walk away with a nice lump sum. If I chose not to try and buy the best potential investment car I would probably just max out the premium bonds and continue to waste money buying and selling inappropriate cars.
I probably need to be more realistic and reduce annual mileage to 1k p.a to stop it just becoming a leggy old Ferrari...
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