Tesla model 3 P lease or buy?

[Deadlysub]

I’m currently going through a similar dilemma. I jumped on the mega cheap V90 lease and my car is due to go back in April.

I really want an EV but the lack of confidence in residuals is making financing expensive.

[Auto810graphy]

jamoor said:

foxsasha said:

Leasing a 3P over 20k miles 24 months (wouldn't want to be tied to the agreement for longer than that) costs around £14750 over the term after 50% vat and corp tax offset. That's the equivalent to just over £18k (34%) depreciation allowance over two years.

It's close enough that I think I'll continue with an outright purchase as I get itchy feet and would prefer the freedom to move the car on or keep it for longer should I want to.

If anyone knows on any cracking lease deals that bring the cost down significantly then please do share, leasing is attractive for the reasons highlighted by other posters.

The only cracking lease deals are when companies value the car differently in the future.


Some companies may be able to do a deal with Mercedes to buy 500 cars at a discount I don’t think this exists with Tesla, the price is the price

This is correct but I have heard a rumour it might change slightly in the future.

Over the past 3 months the forecast residuals have reduced along with the Tesla price increases in turn increasing contract hire prices.

One of the funders I was talking with is increasing prices by hitting the GFV again as they are nervous of how many cars will be hitting the used market over the next 24-36 months.

As for the used cars advertised, I think only a couple of private cars have sold as most people know there are a selection of stock cars available from Tesla inventory

[jamoor]

Auto810graphy said:

jamoor said:

foxsasha said:

Leasing a 3P over 20k miles 24 months (wouldn't want to be tied to the agreement for longer than that) costs around £14750 over the term after 50% vat and corp tax offset. That's the equivalent to just over £18k (34%) depreciation allowance over two years.

It's close enough that I think I'll continue with an outright purchase as I get itchy feet and would prefer the freedom to move the car on or keep it for longer should I want to.

If anyone knows on any cracking lease deals that bring the cost down significantly then please do share, leasing is attractive for the reasons highlighted by other posters.

The only cracking lease deals are when companies value the car differently in the future.


Some companies may be able to do a deal with Mercedes to buy 500 cars at a discount I don’t think this exists with Tesla, the price is the price

This is correct but I have heard a rumour it might change slightly in the future.

Over the past 3 months the forecast residuals have reduced along with the Tesla price increases in turn increasing contract hire prices.

One of the funders I was talking with is increasing prices by hitting the GFV again as they are nervous of how many cars will be hitting the used market over the next 24-36 months.

As for the used cars advertised, I think only a couple of private cars have sold as most people know there are a selection of stock cars available from Tesla inventory

It’s a great unknown, If we were in 08 and talkingg about a 320d we’d be able to guess accurately how much it would be worth in 3 years time.

I suspect even companies leasing out ICE cars would be stuck as who knows what ICE residuals are in 3 years time as electric cars become commonplace.

[arun1uk]

gangzoom said:

The Giulia is the only combustion that turns my head these days. Don't waste your money on a M4, these day the M car even run the same engine essentially as the 440i.

I missed how long you said the lease deal was, but £33k+ to spank on a rental for 3 years is ALOT of cash to waste with nothing to show for it at the end, no matter how much you like the Giulia.

If you really want to go out with a 'bang' £35k will get you a used fully owned V8 GS F, wolf in sheeps clothing comes to mind. Ok so I lied 2 combustion car I would turn and admire.

[Img]https://live.staticflickr.com/1586/25594437355_677c07eecd_k_d.jpg[/thumb]

I guess ultimately if you want a last go in a combustion car the kind of money your talking about with Giulia will get you into ALOT of 2-3 year old combustion machines which that you're heart will love, but actually cost you far less to own, as even if you assume something like the GS F is only worth £15k in 2-3 years thats still half the cost of the Giulia over the same time period.

With EVs the used market isn't there to do something similar.

If your feeling really brave I see V10 M5s are now under £15k, so no much more than the deposit on the Giulia. That is a proper M car, though I suspect you need to swallow a big brave pill to run one of those any large number of miles! I personally don't admire those cars, but I do think credit the owner for their bravery for running owing one though .

Edited by gangzoom on Sunday 15th December 06:41

Fair point, well made. I've already had a look at a couple of GSFs (the blue one on autotrader has no service history, and the black one in Edgeware is an anomaly - probably imported from Japan from old parts), I've even considered the RCF but something about them doesn't take my fancy. I don't have the balls for a V10 M5/6. The other option is RS5/C63 but their older tech doesn't float my boat.

I could get a '17 Giulia, however, managing a car like that out of manufacturer warranty scares me a bit, which is why the lease option works well. Mitigates risk, even though it's a lot more.

I have a Caterham for weekends, but want a fast every day car now. I drove the M3P over the weekend and it's insanely fast. Great tech and spec - seriously tempting.

[gangzoom]

arun1uk said:

I have a Caterham for weekends, but want a fast every day car now. I drove the M3P over the weekend and it's insanely fast. Great tech and spec - seriously tempting.

If you have a weekend toy already get a M3P, a GS F woudlnt offer you anything more in engagement compared to a Caterham and compared to a M3P it'll be slower whilst costing 30p per mile in fuel versus 2p in EV.

If you can afford the capital cost think about buying instead of leasing. I see nothing coming up from any one else that will touch the M3P interms of range/cost/speed, bare in mind a Taycan is 200 miles rated range for similar real life performance but costs £100k+.

Maintenance on these things is also laughable, I've done 48k now since the last 'service' on any EV. Even next year when I'll have to put the current car through its first MOT (odometer will be at 40-45k) I cannot see the need to 'service' it beyond changing tyres - brake fluid maybe?

As longterm ownership prospects EVs are fantastic, warranty is a different issue, the 3 been fairly 'simple' should help lessen any worries.

[squirdan]

i leased mine because despite the strong residuals predicted, I think the trade in or sale at 2 years old could be tricky. Remember Tesla arent interested in 2nd hand cars

Mainly though, I am not sure about the build quality and hence the longer term ownership proposition. Not so much battery technology, more the basics of the car.

None of this changes the fact I love the car but...

low quality interior plastics liable to get badly scuffed
various bits of unpainted metal around eg boot closure
scrappy looking welds (especially the doors where you can see how the metal has been folded over
as someone else pointed out, the rear windows rattle when you close the door...frameless design ...not sure how robust it is

SO my judgement was, I'll leave the residual and build quality risk with someone else.

Finally the pace of technological change is quick in this segment. So lets say you buy an M3 on a 3 year view, there is a chance its been completely outclassed in 2.5 years time by some yet unkown unlaunched model, which knackers the residuals. Bit like how every magazine raved about the I-Pace, yet hardly anyone buys them...poor range and old school charging capability

[SWoll]

Got to agree. Ours is through Evezy which from a cost perspective aligns with leasing but without any long term commitment. Happier knowing up front what it's going to cost me than taking a gamble on residuals. Way too much going on in the EV world over the next 2-3 years with some of the big players launching cars in the mid-range segment (VW, BMW, Volvo/Polestar) and the Model Y also on the horizon.

[Fastlane]

OP - As you are doing 15k miles/year, if you are buying/leasing an EV through your company, bear in mind in your calculations that you can only claim back 4p/mile for business miles. So if you do 10k business miles pa, factor in being £4100 worse off in a company EV vs a personal lease (or an ICE company car) for your business mileage claim each year, or £12.3k over 3 years. In the initial excitement, it is easy to overlook this when doing your calculations, I know I did...

[Parky73]

SWoll said:

Got to agree. Ours is through Evezy which from a cost perspective aligns with leasing but without any long term commitment. Happier knowing up front what it's going to cost me than taking a gamble on residuals. Way too much going on in the EV world over the next 2-3 years with some of the big players launching cars in the mid-range segment (VW, BMW, Volvo/Polestar) and the Model Y also on the horizon.

I have done the numbers and just signed up to Evezy - which looks really good by comparison to a long term commitment. I may switch between the SR and the Performance as the months pass- without the pressure of having to make an expensive long term decision now. My only worry is the lead time for it to arrive. This looks a good way to hedge your bets as new models arrive over the next few years. In addition it may act as a bridge until 2 year old LRs/Performances are on the market for sale.

[gangzoom]

SWoll said:

Way too much going on in the EV world over the next 2-3 years with some of the big players launching cars in the mid-range segment (VW, BMW, Volvo/Polestar) and the Model Y also on the horizon.

Aside from Tesla there really isn't much going on. Loads of PR from VAG and thats about it.

If you take Model 3 sales away, overall EV sales in 2019 is LOWER than in 2018, am not surprised Mercedes aren't rushing out the EQC in the US.

Right now the EV market feels very much like 3D TVs in 2012/13. Those of us whos been following EV development for years will tell you each year simply brings more and more disappointments - like a £100k+ Porsche EV with only 201 EPA rated miles.

Personally I don't see EVs become truly mass market, but take up similar market share to LPG. Tesla is the thorn that just wouldn't go away, am sure pretty sure VAG would do a 180 U turn back to 'clean' diesels if they thought they could get away with it!!

https://www.motor1.com/news/387978/mercedes-eqc-de...

Edited by gangzoom on Monday 16th December 18:47

[RobDickinson]

EU 2020 onward emissions fines have skewed the world market quite a bit

[Witchfinder]

I'm not sure I understand what you're getting at, GZ. Why would you exclude the bestselling electric car from electric car sales? You're ignoring the *colossal* investment from VWG in electric. There's also some hard hitting emissions fines that will start next year, and a number of cities that are planning to ban combustion engines.

Electric isn't going anywhere. Most manufacturers can't keep up with demand. Arguably, high prices for EVs are a function of demand and market manipulation by manufacturers. If anything, grants are counterproductive at this stage, and prices are being jacked up to match the grant.

[RobDickinson]

and skipping the fact that sales are increasing

https://www.ft.com/content/d57efdf6-ffad-11e9-be59...

https://www.drivingelectric.com/news/678/electric-...

[gangzoom]

Witchfinder said:

Why would you exclude the bestselling electric car from electric car sales? You're ignoring the *colossal* investment from VWG in electric.

Because if EVs really are to have a future it cannot just be one brand.

Don't confuse VAG PR with actual action, what % of VAG income do you actually think will come from EVs in the next few years?

The Audi eTron is selling in tiny numbers despite plenty of Audi owners been able to afford the asking price, the Taycan is been delivered slower than Brexit, and VW hasn't even given a real price for the ID in most markets.

Currently for EVs Tesla remains the serious player, and will remain for a long time yet to come. The only good thing is Tesla appear to have plenty of lives so will remain a pain for the likes of VAG/Toyota for the foreseeable future, but that doesn't translate to mass EV take up.

[MOBB]

April 2020 will be interesting as thats when the zero BIK tax rates arrive - this is the main reason I moved to an EV. I think the uptake may be significant.

It was quite a shock to realise how good a job Tesla have done with the Model 3, I have no desire to go back to ICE.

[Witchfinder]

gangzoom said:

Because if EVs really are to have a future it cannot just be one brand.

Don't confuse VAG PR with actual action, what % of VAG income do you actually think will come from EVs in the next few years?

Nor will it be. Here's a selection of alternatives coming in the next couple of years.
https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/electric/future-elec...

You can dismiss VW's plans as PR, but it's plainly not.
https://www.businessinsider.com/vw-making-huge-bet...

[forest172]

Anybody else jumping into these yet? Lease or buy?

[MOBB]

Leasing cost has shot up in recent months, my £550 per month deal would now be £700

[Dave Hedgehog]

still only a handful of used cars on trader all at or over list

hopefully BIK will keep the demand up way beyond what tesla can produce

[stabilio]

I ended up going with Teslas business contract hire.
Was tempted to buy outright but I'm guessing they'll be lots of used M3's flooding the market in the next 2-3 years when all these first batches of leases are up which may not help resale values.

Edited by stabilio on Monday 6th January 17:50