graveyard for petrol driven classics

graveyard for petrol driven classics

Author
Discussion

catsey

Original Poster:

266 posts

77 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
its on the cards i wont be around to see it so what is to be done in <20yrs when all cars will be electric. What about classic petrol cars, are you still able to get petrol, parts, drive them. What worth will they have?
so in 30yrs time were have all the porkies gone??? Or will the rare or percieved petrol classics only be available for the really really rich . or all doomed worthless scrap

CRA1G

6,500 posts

194 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
IMO the classic market will grow stronger and stronger simply because as they can not be replaced the demand Will out strip supply,yes I'm sure there will be restrictions but fuel will not disappear,i can see the market getting bigger.....! I will be keeping my collection tucked away ready for my 7 month grandson to drive....drivingthumbup

Jim1556

1,771 posts

155 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Let's hope that's at least a hundred years or so in the future!

I cannot see how they can force us into driving (or indeed, being driven by) something we don't want!

I especially can't see how poorer countries (that require millions of new cars) will make the transition without major sanctions leading to possible civil strife and/or wars...

It's a sad state of affairs that we're discussing the death of the ICE for use by joe public as either a means of transport or a means of enjoyment! There is absolutely no viable alternative for me without massive compromises... weeping

Cheib

23,112 posts

174 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
I think black boxes will come in before then. Insurance companies already use them for new/young drivers so it’s only a matter of time before they strat offering cheaper insurance to those that use the among experienced drivers. Classic thin end of the wedge...

George Smiley

5,048 posts

80 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
Before electric cars became cool (sorry, fashionable) European govts have struggled to think on how to replace the retired fossil fuel power stations.

That is the one thing for anyone that fears the sudden demise of oil fuelled car can use as a huge glimpse of hope for not in our lifetime.

stratfordshark

111 posts

182 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
Maybe, but the trends argue against this. Volume of large gas guzzling SUVs has grown by 11% in past year in USA, and these "light trucks" now have 63% market share. Europe and China show similar large gains for big ICE-powered SUVs.

MIT has pretty good record on automotive prediction, and their projection is that by 2050, 60% of light vehicles will be ICE/electric hybrid (most with turbocharged small ICE), with pure battery powered vehicles holding 15% share.

All the big Japanese manufacturers are working on improving efficiency of ICE including higher compression ratios. Mazda's Skyactiv-X is delivering 20-30% efficiency improvements.

As previous poster said, developing markets in particular are almost impossible to supply with anything but fossil-fuel vehicles for a number of important reasons.

I wouldn't write off petrol engines yet.

Alex

9,975 posts

283 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
Pure EV is a long, long way from replacing the ICE, despite politicians ambitions.

MDL111

6,895 posts

176 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
As cmoose has said, most people do not care and many will actually prefer an electric car with cool connectivity and self-driving / parking funciotnality. I also suspect in 50 years or less it will be very challenging to drive a combustion engines car in Europe on a regular basis (or self drive a car period for that matter). The cycle of change and progression is a lot faster now than it was 50 years ago, so how quickly stuff changed in the past is probably not the best indicator with respect to this technology.... and a 100 years ago you could still commute on your horse without people looking at you like you are insane

hunter 66

3,888 posts

219 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
Agree , I have driven reasonable cars on the road and raced many reasonable cars ( F3 , RSR , GT2 , GT3 etc etc ) . But now have a Tesla as well as a Fez on the road , and now sadly never drive the Ferrari ( yes love Porsche more but.. ) .
Electric cars are the reality , simple , especially for city use ........ some cities ( Amsterdam will ban ICE in 6 years time ).
We will store our ICE GT cars out of town and use them on track ..... where some young city lad will lap 10 secs a lap faster than us using the latest software to optimise his lines ....

Edited by hunter 66 on Tuesday 16th January 16:52

CRA1G

6,500 posts

194 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
Yet another thread derailed from it's title subject........? "Graveyard for petrol Classics" .....! rolleyes

Buggyjam

539 posts

78 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
I have to accept it’s going to happen as everyone around me will be buying and forcing the change, I’m one person and my desire can’t stop the world. Accepting it will happen, Well Porsche better come up with some electric sports cars other than that mission E quickly as I don’t won’t to be cut off as the tide turns. I can’t afford new Porshes so when in say 15 years time I’m on Porsche number 2 I’ll be looking for a used Porsche applicance if it has been forced by then biggrin. I don’t want to be stuck buying some nasty electric conversion kit ha.

I don’t like that mission E electrical at all. Looks like something out of the Jetsons. Almost as if they’re trying too hard to look like cars of the future were meant to look on Tomorrow’s world. Hoping they keep some of the Porsche shape in a different fashion and develop a ground up 2 seater like the Cayman. Something with real noise at idle, perhaps fan noise and some ability to rev, not artificially. The milk float like sounds of the Tesla “inoffensive” are as dull as dish water (all EVs sound crap to me at the moment no matter what people tell me to think). Maybe some electric power plants of the future will be more back to the future Delorean biggrin. A bit more about them.

v8ksn

4,711 posts

183 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
CRA1G said:
Yet another thread derailed from it's title subject........? "Graveyard for petrol Classics" .....! rolleyes
confused

Jim1556

1,771 posts

155 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
Not having a dig Mr Moose, I enjoy the debate (think, natter in the pub).

anonymous said:
[redacted]
Poll tax? I'm a smoker, and while it sometimes is an inconvenience, I appreciate the massive difference in pubs/restaurants and prefer it like this (though I do enjoy the odd occasion a pub flouts the rules)...

anonymous said:
[redacted]
Surely you've heard of the law of diminishing returns? Also, you can't argue with physics!

We are almost at the peak of what's physically possible WRT storage of electricity - lithium-ion batteries are much more efficient than lead acid, still quite dangerous though (look at Hammond's crash).

BUT unless there is another massive leap forward, there are pretty much smaller and smaller % gains in efficiency to be had. Let's not forget, lithium is a very dirty resource to mine, and also still quite rare (unless we start mining asteroids). Hence, it may be getting cheaper in the short term, but it'll only get rarer and more valuable as we consume the resource.

There's also the recyclability of the battery - what's a current LI battery life, 5-7 years depending on usage? How long does your battery in your laptop/tablet retain it's battery life after a few hundred charge cycles?

Oil, whilst it may not be as clean as fusion (which is still science fiction stuff on a practicality level), is a renewable resource - there are many examples of dry wells being replenished through some (still unknown) natural process that doesn't rely on dead dinosaurs. It's also responsible for where we are technologically, without oil, we'd still be in the mid-late 1800s!...

Jim1556

1,771 posts

155 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
No, I disregard battery cars based on the need for that electricity to come from somewhere - ie power stations. We're a very long way off having the infrastructure to deal with the demand if everybody somehow had the desire and finances to buy an electric car. It's a flight of fancy and is not the answer - especially while the dhead green brigade insist on not building nuclear power plants, by far the best, cleanest option! Solar is inefficient (though getting slowly better), tidal is a better option as we can predict the moon's movements for hundreds of years, wind is useless as it's rather polluting and we don't know what the wind will do next month. Those kind of renewables just aren't a solution!

We're going to have issues as long as the global warming idiots insist that CO2 is a pollutant and is bad for the planet (it's really not).

We also have developed the cleanest petrol (and diesel) engined cars that are (I think) 20x less polluting than 30 years ago.

Jim1556

1,771 posts

155 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
I wasn't aware of solid state batteries (I don't pay attention to anything in the news about such stuff). But, a quick google gives this:

Solid-state batteries are traditionally expensive to make, and is noted to be immune to economies of scale. It is estimated in 2012 that based on then-current technology, a 20Ah solid-state battery cell would cost US$100,000, and a high-range electric car would require 800 to 1,000 of such cells. Cost is noted to be a factor that has impeded the adoption of solid-state batteries in certain areas, such as smartphones.

In addition, low temperature operations may be challenging, and solid-state batteries were once noted for having very poor performance, making their use in rechargeable batteries impractical.

Meanwhile, solid-state batteries with ceramic electrolytes require a great pressure to maintain contact with the electrodes, and solid-state batteries with ceramic separators may break with mechanical stress, due to its rigid nature.

Doesn't sound like the future to me...

Jim1556

1,771 posts

155 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
Like I said, couple of blokes having a natter over a pint... Off for dinner now, have a good night. beer

996TT02

3,308 posts

139 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
Supply and demand, sure there won't be the same number of filling stations providing petrol, but given that very few people are likely to just ditch there desirable (as opposed to mundane everyday) vehicles in the nearest river, they will need petrol or diesel and someone will be providing it.

Just like someone still provides parts for cars that have been out of production for many decades, if there are enough of them to justify this. No, life won't be that simple for owners of ICE cars, but then again we won't be depending on them for our everyday requirements, just as we already don't normally use our valuable classics daily.

Not to mention, outside of the vehicular world there are many devices that, realistically, will practically forever be powered by liquid fuels either because (as at present) batteries do not provide the necessary energy density, but even if that is resolved, which may be used in locations where recharging said batteries will be impossible. First device that comes to mind, a chainsaw in the woods. Or, a generator of electrical energy...

catsey

Original Poster:

266 posts

77 months

Tuesday 16th January 2018
quotequote all
[redacted]

Wudee

269 posts

143 months

Wednesday 17th January 2018
quotequote all
in my view long before we are forced 100% electric by legislation the classic car market will have taken a nosedive.
In my surroundings i see the youngster less interested in cars, don't own cars etc.
These are not people who will invest in a classic car as a thing of joy. Driving is becoming a thing for old people

Johnny5hoods

499 posts

118 months

Wednesday 17th January 2018
quotequote all
I wonder how fast and how far the national grid would have to be extended to cope with demand if even 50% of vehicles became electric. What would the cost of that development be, not only financially but on the landscape too, and would we all be comfortable having a Sellafield on our doorstep?