When will used car prices drop?
Discussion
IMI A said:
MannyLon said:
youngsyr said:
I'm confused as to why people are so sure we're in the quiet before the storm?
I'm sure if I'd asked you 1 year ago what would happen if a global pandemic took hold forcing everyone to stay indoors for 3 months, you would never have predicted that the government would pay 9 million people's wages, pour money into businesses and dish out payment holidays like they're going out of fashion.
Yet, you're confident that you can predict what the next 6-12 months will hold?
Reminds me of the "When will house prices crash" thread that has been running for the best part of a decade with so many posters being convinced a crash is forever just around the corner... and is yet to see a crash in house prices.
Indeed. Truth is no one can really predict what will happen with the economy. I'm sure if I'd asked you 1 year ago what would happen if a global pandemic took hold forcing everyone to stay indoors for 3 months, you would never have predicted that the government would pay 9 million people's wages, pour money into businesses and dish out payment holidays like they're going out of fashion.
Yet, you're confident that you can predict what the next 6-12 months will hold?
Reminds me of the "When will house prices crash" thread that has been running for the best part of a decade with so many posters being convinced a crash is forever just around the corner... and is yet to see a crash in house prices.
ked for your lifetime.IMI A said:
MannyLon said:
youngsyr said:
I'm confused as to why people are so sure we're in the quiet before the storm?
I'm sure if I'd asked you 1 year ago what would happen if a global pandemic took hold forcing everyone to stay indoors for 3 months, you would never have predicted that the government would pay 9 million people's wages, pour money into businesses and dish out payment holidays like they're going out of fashion.
Yet, you're confident that you can predict what the next 6-12 months will hold?
Reminds me of the "When will house prices crash" thread that has been running for the best part of a decade with so many posters being convinced a crash is forever just around the corner... and is yet to see a crash in house prices.
Indeed. Truth is no one can really predict what will happen with the economy. I'm sure if I'd asked you 1 year ago what would happen if a global pandemic took hold forcing everyone to stay indoors for 3 months, you would never have predicted that the government would pay 9 million people's wages, pour money into businesses and dish out payment holidays like they're going out of fashion.
Yet, you're confident that you can predict what the next 6-12 months will hold?
Reminds me of the "When will house prices crash" thread that has been running for the best part of a decade with so many posters being convinced a crash is forever just around the corner... and is yet to see a crash in house prices.
ked for your lifetime.We should all have been living on the streets eating mud and water several times over if you'd listened to what the relevant doomsayers were predicting.
The upsurge in house price transactions will keep prices stronger.
After the initial run of transactions, there's a good chance that buyers late to the party might have been better off if the Government hadn't reduced stamp duty as they'd have been buying a house at a lower price...sellers will be the winners here.
It's a classic government policy trick.
I see in Oz they are offering up to $45k grant towards a new build house....guess what ..house and land packages that had been falling since March went up by about $45k within weeks....the Developers win as well as tradesmen who get the work. Buyers don't necessarily win and may have actually been swindled into buying into an inflated market.
After the initial run of transactions, there's a good chance that buyers late to the party might have been better off if the Government hadn't reduced stamp duty as they'd have been buying a house at a lower price...sellers will be the winners here.
It's a classic government policy trick.
I see in Oz they are offering up to $45k grant towards a new build house....guess what ..house and land packages that had been falling since March went up by about $45k within weeks....the Developers win as well as tradesmen who get the work. Buyers don't necessarily win and may have actually been swindled into buying into an inflated market.
Edited by Andyoz on Monday 27th July 14:39
Andyoz said:
The upsurge in house price transactions will keep prices stronger.
After the initial run of transactions, there's a good chance that buyers late to the party might have been better off if the Government hadn't reduced stamp duty as they'd have been buying a house at a lower price...sellers will be the winners here.
It's a classic government policy trick.
I see in Oz they are offering up to $45k grant towards a new build house....guess what ..house and land packages that had been falling since March went up by about $45k within weeks....the Developers win as well as tradesmen who get the work. Buyers don't necessarily win and may have actually been swindled into buying into an inflated market.
I disagree with the assumptions behind that statement - for me, the market is the market, so how can you be "swindled" into paying the market price?After the initial run of transactions, there's a good chance that buyers late to the party might have been better off if the Government hadn't reduced stamp duty as they'd have been buying a house at a lower price...sellers will be the winners here.
It's a classic government policy trick.
I see in Oz they are offering up to $45k grant towards a new build house....guess what ..house and land packages that had been falling since March went up by about $45k within weeks....the Developers win as well as tradesmen who get the work. Buyers don't necessarily win and may have actually been swindled into buying into an inflated market.
Edited by Andyoz on Monday 27th July 14:39
If you want the house now, that's the price you have to pay. There's no deception there. It might have been cheaper yesterday and it might be cheaper tomorrow, but the people who make up the current market price are the people buying right now.
How is that any different from an identical house being more expensive in a London suburb to a Cardiff suburb?
av185 said:
Yep Help to Buy had the same effect lol.
House prices will remain high imo if only due to stock and land shortages.
Same as most used cars.
Now this is where I can see a real change in the markets due to Covid (and the response to it).House prices will remain high imo if only due to stock and land shortages.
Same as most used cars.
There is no shortage of land in the UK. The UK is something like 99.8% rural.
What there is a shortage of is land in close proximity/short commuting time to large cities, hence the disparity in house prices around our major cities and out in the sticks.
Covid has just created a shift in working patterns where it is now actually more attractive to live outside of a a big city (with a garden, lower population density and more space generally) rather than in one.
Effectively the restriction on space close to large cities may no longer be anywhere near as much of a restriction on supply of convenient housing stock for a large proportion of the population.
youngsyr said:
Now this is where I can see a real change in the markets due to Covid (and the response to it).
There is no shortage of land in the UK. The UK is something like 99.8% rural.
What there is a shortage of is land in close proximity/short commuting time to large cities, hence the disparity in house prices around our major cities and out in the sticks.
Covid has just created a shift in working patterns where it is now actually more attractive to live outside of a a big city (with a garden, lower population density and more space generally) rather than in one.
Effectively the restriction on space close to large cities may no longer be anywhere near as much of a restriction on supply of convenient housing stock for a large proportion of the population.
Covid could well effectively create another 1920s 1930s flight to the suburbs.There is no shortage of land in the UK. The UK is something like 99.8% rural.
What there is a shortage of is land in close proximity/short commuting time to large cities, hence the disparity in house prices around our major cities and out in the sticks.
Covid has just created a shift in working patterns where it is now actually more attractive to live outside of a a big city (with a garden, lower population density and more space generally) rather than in one.
Effectively the restriction on space close to large cities may no longer be anywhere near as much of a restriction on supply of convenient housing stock for a large proportion of the population.
The downward effect on commercial rents and capital values in particular already being felt by many.
av185 said:
Covid could well effectively create another 1920s 1930s flight to the suburbs.
The downward effect on commercial rents and capital values in particular already being felt by many.
I guess that also depends on location. The downward effect on commercial rents and capital values in particular already being felt by many.
I'm in retailing, footwear and clothing, and speak to loads of other retailers. One thing that has become pretty clear is people avoiding large towns and cities, and really not wanting to go into malls.
Many who are in the above are having a torrid time since lockdown ended, 15-30% of what they usually do turnover wise and that is with heavy discounting too.
We are in a small market town and we are doing small amounts of discounting on some lines, but none at all on others that are still in demand, even though we would normally be at 50-70% off at this point with the new seasons lines arriving next week. We have currently trade at 81% compared to the last average of the last 3 years, we were 'hoping' to trade at 60% of normal, so pretty pleased with that.
We have also had lots of new customers, or returning customers that we see but not all the time as they live in the city, they are using us more now as they simply don't want to be in the city.
I guess we will really know in 24 months whether that will continue or everyone will have forgotten and be back to busy city centres again.
gizlaroc said:
av185 said:
Covid could well effectively create another 1920s 1930s flight to the suburbs.
The downward effect on commercial rents and capital values in particular already being felt by many.
I guess that also depends on location. The downward effect on commercial rents and capital values in particular already being felt by many.
I'm in retailing, footwear and clothing, and speak to loads of other retailers. One thing that has become pretty clear is people avoiding large towns and cities, and really not wanting to go into malls.
Many who are in the above are having a torrid time since lockdown ended, 15-30% of what they usually do turnover wise and that is with heavy discounting too.
We are in a small market town and we are doing small amounts of discounting on some lines, but none at all on others that are still in demand, even though we would normally be at 50-70% off at this point with the new seasons lines arriving next week. We have currently trade at 81% compared to the last average of the last 3 years, we were 'hoping' to trade at 60% of normal, so pretty pleased with that.
We have also had lots of new customers, or returning customers that we see but not all the time as they live in the city, they are using us more now as they simply don't want to be in the city.
I guess we will really know in 24 months whether that will continue or everyone will have forgotten and be back to busy city centres again.
No idea what’s going on in the market...OPC’s all been very busy etc but seems to me like higher end market has stalled. On Auto Traders there’s something like a dozen 991 Speedster’s for sale all of a sudden and a lot of 991.2 GT3 RS’s looking for a home. Also seems to me that dealers like Ashgood have been pricing cars for quick deals and JZM have listed a very low mileage 997.2 RS for £152k....which again looks priced to get a deal done. And there are also a lot of GT4’s and Spyder’s for sale.
It’s obvious OPC’s have sold a lot of 992’s etc and they have undoubtedly been busy but there are also a lot of these more limited volume cars around.
It’s obvious OPC’s have sold a lot of 992’s etc and they have undoubtedly been busy but there are also a lot of these more limited volume cars around.
Cheib said:
No idea what’s going on in the market...OPC’s all been very busy etc but seems to me like higher end market has stalled. On Auto Traders there’s something like a dozen 991 Speedster’s for sale all of a sudden and a lot of 991.2 GT3 RS’s looking for a home. Also seems to me that dealers like Ashgood have been pricing cars for quick deals and JZM have listed a very low mileage 997.2 RS for £152k....which again looks priced to get a deal done. And there are also a lot of GT4’s and Spyder’s for sale.
It’s obvious OPC’s have sold a lot of 992’s etc and they have undoubtedly been busy but there are also a lot of these more limited volume cars around.
There’s always been plenty of cars on sale. I honestly don’t think the high end market will be affected. Mostly brought by cash buyers who tend to weather ups and down of the economy.It’s obvious OPC’s have sold a lot of 992’s etc and they have undoubtedly been busy but there are also a lot of these more limited volume cars around.
MannyLon said:
There’s always been plenty of cars on sale. I honestly don’t think the high end market will be affected. Mostly brought by cash buyers who tend to weather ups and down of the economy.
No they dont. Most make their cash work and borrow at historically low rates. High end stuff is slowing (In My Experience), unless you're 911R aka Dave the Rave, then its all rosy. VonSenger said:
MannyLon said:
There’s always been plenty of cars on sale. I honestly don’t think the high end market will be affected. Mostly brought by cash buyers who tend to weather ups and down of the economy.
No they dont. Most make their cash work and borrow at historically low rates. High end stuff is slowing (In My Experience), unless you're 911R aka Dave the Rave, then its all rosy. Gassing Station | Porsche General | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff