When will used car prices drop?
Discussion
Andyoz said:
The Share market isn't the economy.
Not saying it is. Just an example of an asset people buy that you would think would be generally cheap right now, given uncertainty around jobs, the economy and brexit. Wouldn't be surprising if used cars also recovered quickly post lockdown. Edited by Spy on Friday 17th April 14:32
Spy said:
Not saying it is. Just an example of an asset people buy that you would think would be generally cheap right now
Agree, but we have seen unprecedented interventions that may be storing up a sting in the tail later. Historically, it is not unusual to have bounce backs and the true lows may have yet to be tested. We are barely 2 months into this massive event.Spy said:
I am not sure. I think there may be a spike in used car prices post lockdown for the following reasons:
1) There will be many people who were previously in the market for a car and are now waiting for the lockdown to finish
Some may rethink their economic situation but others who are still employed and have cash in the bank, will want to still buy.
Remember, with the lockdown, many people have lower outgoings
2) No new car orders during lockdown means a lower stock of part ex cars flowing into dealerships over the first month or two post lockdown
3) Used car dealers will be desperate for stock as soon as the lockdown is over. The start of the pandemic coincided with the normal buying cycle of the used dealers as they were coming out of Xmas/Winter, leaving them short of stock but rich in cash.
My prediction would be a price spike in used cars for a short period after lockdown whilst the market corrects itself.
Like cmoose I’d be stunned if we see a spike. 1) There will be many people who were previously in the market for a car and are now waiting for the lockdown to finish
Some may rethink their economic situation but others who are still employed and have cash in the bank, will want to still buy.
Remember, with the lockdown, many people have lower outgoings
2) No new car orders during lockdown means a lower stock of part ex cars flowing into dealerships over the first month or two post lockdown
3) Used car dealers will be desperate for stock as soon as the lockdown is over. The start of the pandemic coincided with the normal buying cycle of the used dealers as they were coming out of Xmas/Winter, leaving them short of stock but rich in cash.
My prediction would be a price spike in used cars for a short period after lockdown whilst the market corrects itself.
I think used car dealers will be desperate to generate some cash post lockdown....they will have costs that have been rolling up even with govt grants etc so I think would be looking to convert existing stock into a healthier balance sheet intitally.
With regards to a lack of new car orders and lower stock of part ex. Porsche didn’t make any cars for a good amount of time in 2018 due to reconfiguring the factory....used car prices were not particularly firm and nor did dealers have nine month waiting lists for new cars when the factory started production again.
I don’t see people rushing out to buy cars...there will be the YOLO/FOMO factor for some....but there will be a lot more worried about their job or the business they own.
Porsche911R said:
both rubbish imo !
A lot of shares have just about recovered 2/3rd of what the scare drop was on the 23th march , some are more than pre covid ! but most are now 15% down not 30%
house market to drop by a sixth !!
builders shares are going up every day, we have a housing shortage and they expect people to back to work building in 3 weeks. A strong buy atm.
be no house price drops, there are none for sale !
who are they ? this generation to recover people ?
as for peoples money the leisure staff who got laid off did not want to pick fruit did they ? most are at home on 80% wage !!
HIGH TAX, VAT might go up, they cannot put Tax up that quick due to the bounce back recovery period. As you said no money about !
EU is in trouble, bigger debt and most don't put in only take out !!!
Germany don't want to bail the whole EU out !!
so £ should rise pretty well.
As you said imo? The 80% is only for 3 months and its a well known fact the government cant afford to continue after that.A lot of shares have just about recovered 2/3rd of what the scare drop was on the 23th march , some are more than pre covid ! but most are now 15% down not 30%
house market to drop by a sixth !!
builders shares are going up every day, we have a housing shortage and they expect people to back to work building in 3 weeks. A strong buy atm.
be no house price drops, there are none for sale !
who are they ? this generation to recover people ?
as for peoples money the leisure staff who got laid off did not want to pick fruit did they ? most are at home on 80% wage !!
HIGH TAX, VAT might go up, they cannot put Tax up that quick due to the bounce back recovery period. As you said no money about !
EU is in trouble, bigger debt and most don't put in only take out !!!
Germany don't want to bail the whole EU out !!
so £ should rise pretty well.
Edited by Porsche911R on Friday 17th April 09:00
Edited by tedblog on Friday 17th April 16:47
tokyotv said:
They just extended it to June!!!
Think I will buy my Carrera T in July then :-)
That just highlights how long lockdown will be then? Furlough scheme could cost £40 billion in three months its shocking the figures banded around, the Government are paying over the odds for work and goods as well.Think I will buy my Carrera T in July then :-)
Edited by tedblog on Friday 17th April 17:33
Cheib said:
Like cmoose I’d be stunned if we see a spike.
I think used car dealers will be desperate to generate some cash post lockdown....they will have costs that have been rolling up even with govt grants etc so I think would be looking to convert existing stock into a healthier balance sheet intitally.
All very well C but dealers won't sell at what many are hoping for 'knockdown prices' if they cannot replace used stock at substantially cheaper prices and thus far this isn't happening.I think used car dealers will be desperate to generate some cash post lockdown....they will have costs that have been rolling up even with govt grants etc so I think would be looking to convert existing stock into a healthier balance sheet intitally.
Much of BCA stock is at online buy now prices and these holding close to CAP clean and selling at that too proving stock is selling at not far from book ££.
av185 said:
Cheib said:
Like cmoose I’d be stunned if we see a spike.
I think used car dealers will be desperate to generate some cash post lockdown....they will have costs that have been rolling up even with govt grants etc so I think would be looking to convert existing stock into a healthier balance sheet intitally.
All very well C but dealers won't sell at what many are hoping for 'knockdown prices' if they cannot replace used stock at substantially cheaper prices and thus far this isn't happening.I think used car dealers will be desperate to generate some cash post lockdown....they will have costs that have been rolling up even with govt grants etc so I think would be looking to convert existing stock into a healthier balance sheet intitally.
Much of BCA stock is at online buy now prices and these holding close to CAP clean and selling at that too proving stock is selling at not far from book ££.
OPCs can keep their prices the same and see who bites across the stock but if x is through the floor, they're not in any rush to replenish back to 50 (with associated stocking costs, prep etc). And even then, if pre-covid 40% of used sales were going to Cayenne/Macan but post-Covid the only people buying are powerfully built company directors wanting a 718 (as they don't want to be seen splashing the cash on a 911), their stock mix is going to have to change and the stuff that's not in favour will have to go at least for the cash flow.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Exactly, and wages are only one part of a businesses expenses. Also things like VAT have only been deferred ...they still have to pay it sometime later. As though businesses will magically be flush with cash in 6 months.Lots of entities are going to fall through the cracks anyway...one man band Ltd Co's for a start
Many businesses have already taken a hiding because of Brexit political debacle. This thing has hit the world at a time when individuals and businesses have never been so leveraged.
It's also a worldwide issue so there are no safe havens.
Spike ?....seriously ?...
There will be the mother of all recessions, possibly leading to depression following this with massive unemployment and business liquidation. All asset classes will be hit, none more so than over leveraged automotive trinkets.
Regardless if lockdown is lifted, lack of confidence in the market will absolutely muller values across every brand, at a level we’ve not experienced since the 80’s.
Prices are holding firm at moment, as no point in dropping them. No one is buying...wait for the proverbial to hit the fan once we start to unlock.
Additionally, to be seen cutting about in a modern trinket during and immediately following this, is something personally I couldn’t be more uncomfortable with.
There will be the mother of all recessions, possibly leading to depression following this with massive unemployment and business liquidation. All asset classes will be hit, none more so than over leveraged automotive trinkets.
Regardless if lockdown is lifted, lack of confidence in the market will absolutely muller values across every brand, at a level we’ve not experienced since the 80’s.
Prices are holding firm at moment, as no point in dropping them. No one is buying...wait for the proverbial to hit the fan once we start to unlock.
Additionally, to be seen cutting about in a modern trinket during and immediately following this, is something personally I couldn’t be more uncomfortable with.
Robbo66 said:
Additionally, to be seen cutting about in a modern trinket during and immediately following this, is something personally I couldn’t be more uncomfortable with.
For some of us our cars aren't "modern trinkets" but our one and only method of personal transport.If other people have a problem with my choice of car that's their issue, not mine.
av185 said:
Cheib said:
Like cmoose I’d be stunned if we see a spike.
I think used car dealers will be desperate to generate some cash post lockdown....they will have costs that have been rolling up even with govt grants etc so I think would be looking to convert existing stock into a healthier balance sheet intitally.
All very well C but dealers won't sell at what many are hoping for 'knockdown prices' if they cannot replace used stock at substantially cheaper prices and thus far this isn't happening.I think used car dealers will be desperate to generate some cash post lockdown....they will have costs that have been rolling up even with govt grants etc so I think would be looking to convert existing stock into a healthier balance sheet intitally.
Much of BCA stock is at online buy now prices and these holding close to CAP clean and selling at that too proving stock is selling at not far from book ££.
Robbo66 said:
Spike ?....seriously ?...
There will be the mother of all recessions, possibly leading to depression following this with massive unemployment and business liquidation. All asset classes will be hit, none more so than over leveraged automotive trinkets.
Regardless if lockdown is lifted, lack of confidence in the market will absolutely muller values across every brand, at a level we’ve not experienced since the 80’s.
Prices are holding firm at moment, as no point in dropping them. No one is buying...wait for the proverbial to hit the fan once we start to unlock.
Additionally, to be seen cutting about in a modern trinket during and immediately following this, is something personally I couldn’t be more uncomfortable with.
markets strong imo, too much scare stories. Ave person is also on 80% wage and not spending money so better off !There will be the mother of all recessions, possibly leading to depression following this with massive unemployment and business liquidation. All asset classes will be hit, none more so than over leveraged automotive trinkets.
Regardless if lockdown is lifted, lack of confidence in the market will absolutely muller values across every brand, at a level we’ve not experienced since the 80’s.
Prices are holding firm at moment, as no point in dropping them. No one is buying...wait for the proverbial to hit the fan once we start to unlock.
Additionally, to be seen cutting about in a modern trinket during and immediately following this, is something personally I couldn’t be more uncomfortable with.
this is nothing like the 80's and this has had global world wide money pumped into it daily for this very reason.
Business/people want to go back to work and make money.
EU might fair worse who knows.
As for not driving your car lol get real.
what it needs is for people to PAY the real cost of living and TAX, ban dividends wages !! and put VAT up.
Ban PCP's also in fact ban any sort of balloon loan.
People have been living like kings on some one else money for too long a debt society at every level !
Now every one wants a bail out !
House shortage still happening, business will go back to normal imho.
They won't ban the dividends TAX dodge though.
when I was a kid you were lucky to see a nice car, my 1st car was £1600, now 17 year olds drive about in £50k cars and above that people rent £300k cars ! it's daft. This has to stop imo.
" the amounts owed by British households rose to a combined £428bn in the third quarter of 2018 - equivalent to £15,385 per home. "
If the virus stops this going forward it's a good thing.
I lived though 87 and 2008, it made no odds my house dropped in price in 87 , so what. I owned my car and did not change it, again so what.
people need to go back to buying what they can afford imho.
Edited by Porsche911R on Saturday 18th April 10:49
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