When will used car prices drop?
Discussion
Twinfan said:
Robbo66 said:
Additionally, to be seen cutting about in a modern trinket during and immediately following this, is something personally I couldn’t be more uncomfortable with.
For some of us our cars aren't "modern trinkets" but our one and only method of personal transport.If other people have a problem with my choice of car that's their issue, not mine.
Cheib said:
I honestly don’t think a lot of dealers are going to be in charge of their own destiny financially over the next three to six months (like many businesses)....unless dealers have kept a very healthy balance sheet and have three months of OPEX sat in the bank account or a bank giving them an overdraft. I think some dealers will be forced to sell cars to generate cash to settle invoices/pay salaries. I don’t think being able to replace stock is going to be the consideration.
I think you are right too, all the time this continues the stock is reducing in value , sometimes you have to cut your losses? They were struggling to sell cars before this kicked off , they've had lots of new car cancellations and it will be even more difficult to get consumers to part with their cash. I still think people will hold tight on big ticket items for the next year.We've already seen plenty of cancellations or defer for 6 months in the company i work for. Also due to change the 4 vans this year, already decided to keep for another year as the company wont make any money to write them off.
Porsche911R said:
Robbo66 said:
Spike ?....seriously ?...
There will be the mother of all recessions, possibly leading to depression following this with massive unemployment and business liquidation. All asset classes will be hit, none more so than over leveraged automotive trinkets.
Regardless if lockdown is lifted, lack of confidence in the market will absolutely muller values across every brand, at a level we’ve not experienced since the 80’s.
Prices are holding firm at moment, as no point in dropping them. No one is buying...wait for the proverbial to hit the fan once we start to unlock.
Additionally, to be seen cutting about in a modern trinket during and immediately following this, is something personally I couldn’t be more uncomfortable with.
markets strong imo, too much scare stories.There will be the mother of all recessions, possibly leading to depression following this with massive unemployment and business liquidation. All asset classes will be hit, none more so than over leveraged automotive trinkets.
Regardless if lockdown is lifted, lack of confidence in the market will absolutely muller values across every brand, at a level we’ve not experienced since the 80’s.
Prices are holding firm at moment, as no point in dropping them. No one is buying...wait for the proverbial to hit the fan once we start to unlock.
Additionally, to be seen cutting about in a modern trinket during and immediately following this, is something personally I couldn’t be more uncomfortable with.
this is nothing like the 80's and this has had global world wide money pumped into it daily for this very reason.
Business/people want to go back to work and make money.
EU might fair worse who knows.
As for not driving your car lol get real.
Robbo66 said:
You could not have re-enforced and substantiated my opinion any further....
not saying it's not going to be tough, I have not paid myself in April, will be on 50% wage in May, June , as I know many business owners have done but that does not make "The mother of all recessions,"
car market was already over loaded with PCP returns so a flooded market was about to happen in that respect anyway.
Cannot keep pumping used cars into a market when every one has a car.
most cars on 2 year deals FFS this was going to happen virus or not, too many cars !!!!
I still doubt you can order a 718 Spyder let alone a GT4 RS in 6 months.
Edited by Porsche911R on Saturday 18th April 11:16
Porsche911R said:
markets strong imo, too much scare stories. Ave person is also on 80% wage and not spending money so better off !
this is nothing like the 80's and this has had global world wide money pumped into it daily for this very reason.
Business/people want to go back to work and make money.
EU might fair worse who knows.
As for not driving your car lol get real.
what it needs is for people to PAY the real cost of living and TAX, ban dividends wages !! and put VAT up.
Ban PCP's also in fact ban any sort of balloon loan.
People have been living like kings on some one else money for too long a debt society at every level !
Now every one wants a bail out !
House shortage still happening, business will go back to normal imho.
They won't ban the dividends TAX dodge though.
when I was a kid you were lucky to see a nice car, my 1st car was £1600, now 17 year olds drive about in £50k cars and above that people rent £300k cars ! it's daft. This has to stop imo.
" the amounts owed by British households rose to a combined £428bn in the third quarter of 2018 - equivalent to £15,385 per home. "
If the virus stops this going forward it's a good thing.
I lived though 87 and 2008, it made no odds my house dropped in price in 87 , so what. I owned my car and did not change it, again so what.
people need to go back to buying what they can afford imho.
Absolutely right!this is nothing like the 80's and this has had global world wide money pumped into it daily for this very reason.
Business/people want to go back to work and make money.
EU might fair worse who knows.
As for not driving your car lol get real.
what it needs is for people to PAY the real cost of living and TAX, ban dividends wages !! and put VAT up.
Ban PCP's also in fact ban any sort of balloon loan.
People have been living like kings on some one else money for too long a debt society at every level !
Now every one wants a bail out !
House shortage still happening, business will go back to normal imho.
They won't ban the dividends TAX dodge though.
when I was a kid you were lucky to see a nice car, my 1st car was £1600, now 17 year olds drive about in £50k cars and above that people rent £300k cars ! it's daft. This has to stop imo.
" the amounts owed by British households rose to a combined £428bn in the third quarter of 2018 - equivalent to £15,385 per home. "
If the virus stops this going forward it's a good thing.
I lived though 87 and 2008, it made no odds my house dropped in price in 87 , so what. I owned my car and did not change it, again so what.
people need to go back to buying what they can afford imho.
Edited by Porsche911R on Saturday 18th April 10:49
The Carrera T I’m considering buying earlier in the discussion will be a cash purchase, with money I’ve saved over many years. If I cant afford something, I make the money until I can afford to buy it.
This virus should be considered a massive RESET button.
I can’t believe most of the population cannot exist for a few months with no wages.....don’t people have savings for a rainy day? That’s what I was always told.
And this is a seriously RAINY DAY!
Edited by tokyotv on Saturday 18th April 12:07
Porsche911R said:
Robbo66 said:
You could not have re-enforced and substantiated my opinion any further....
not saying it's not going to be tough, I have not paid myself in April, will be on 50% wage in May, June , as I know many business owners have done but that does not make "The mother of all recessions,"
car market was already over loaded with PCP returns so a flooded market was about to happen in that respect anyway.
Cannot keep pumping used cars into a market when every one has a car.
most cars on 2 year deals FFS this was going to happen virus or not, too many cars !!!!
The time to be deleveraging was the last 5 years but the exact opposite has happened.
Some of the stimulus measures on the stock markets (I think they are more stabilization than stimulus TBH) are unprecedented and will have long term effects that only time will show up. Don't expect a nice bull stock market run over this coming decade like the last decade...they've injected greater volitility and it's going to be a roller coaster ride.
I just can't see how the deleveraging can happen without it dragging on the economy for some time... years.
tedblog said:
Cheib said:
I honestly don’t think a lot of dealers are going to be in charge of their own destiny financially over the next three to six months (like many businesses)....unless dealers have kept a very healthy balance sheet and have three months of OPEX sat in the bank account or a bank giving them an overdraft. I think some dealers will be forced to sell cars to generate cash to settle invoices/pay salaries. I don’t think being able to replace stock is going to be the consideration.
I think you are right too, all the time this continues the stock is reducing in value , sometimes you have to cut your losses? They were struggling to sell cars before this kicked off , they've had lots of new car cancellations and it will be even more difficult to get consumers to part with their cash. I still think people will hold tight on big ticket items for the next year.We've already seen plenty of cancellations or defer for 6 months in the company i work for. Also due to change the 4 vans this year, already decided to keep for another year as the company wont make any money to write them off.
50 AUC cars (some have a lot more)
10 demonstrators
10 Service loan cars
20 new stock cars
90 cars worth a minimum of £5k less than they were a month ago...yes they probably had a £5k margin in them so they might be able to sell them for what they paid. Obviously a massive generalisation but I’d say this has easily cost an OPC £500k.
Dealers will be minded to hold on to their stock and see if they can get their money for them....the ones that prosper will be the ones that get deals done. Margins will be higher for the next year for those that are active....there will be less competition.
tokyotv said:
Absolutely right!
The Carrera T I’m considering buying earlier in the discussion will be a cash purchase, with money I’ve saved over many years. If I cant afford something, I make the money until I can afford to buy it.
This virus should be considered a massive RESET button.
I can’t believe most of the population cannot exist for a few months with no wages.....don’t people have savings for a rainy day? That’s what I was alway told.
And this is a seriously RAINY DAY!
A huge proportion of particularly the younger generation are livin' the debt junkie dream maxed out on the mumflies driven by a subscriptive economic lifestyle and a hand to mouth existence and really dont know what saving means. Hardly surprising when they have been raised to see debt on the credit card is a good thing and almost a badge of honour as is becoming a bankrupt racking up £60k uni debt fees and subsidised help to buy mortgages in a repeat of what essentially led to the last financial crash.The Carrera T I’m considering buying earlier in the discussion will be a cash purchase, with money I’ve saved over many years. If I cant afford something, I make the money until I can afford to buy it.
This virus should be considered a massive RESET button.
I can’t believe most of the population cannot exist for a few months with no wages.....don’t people have savings for a rainy day? That’s what I was alway told.
And this is a seriously RAINY DAY!
Excessive debt has literally made the world go round furthermore bailouts by mum and dad and those overloaded on pcps now pleading for a payment holiday and getting it no question due to finance companies likely GFVs facing a pummeling.
What incentive is there to save if the state always bails you out witnessed by reduced/non existent furloughing if you have over £15k in assets or free state funded care for those with relatives who have pissed away their money and have less than £23k in assets compared to those who have saved all their lives who have to pay fees in full even being forced to sell their house for the pleasure!
Yes this is an extreme rainy day as in effectively a 1 in a 100 year event plus many will lose jobs as a result but the principle of lack of forsight is essentially the same.
For many it is more a caseof who can we blame this time its not our fault we are the self entitled generation who need another bailout through no fault of our own lol.
Andyoz said:
Some of the stimulus measures on the stock markets (I think they are more stabilization than stimulus TBH) are unprecedented and will have long term effects that only time will show up. Don't expect a nice bull stock market run over this coming decade like the last decade...they've injected greater volitility and it's going to be a roller coaster ride.
A volatile stock market provides great opportunities and it is often where the serious money is made.Agree with the debt amnesty clearly being a bad example to future generations but again it is symptomatic of a increasingly self entitled blameless culture and mindset generation unwilling to take responsibility for their own actions.
av185 said:
A huge proportion of particularly the younger generation are livin' the debt junkie dream maxed out on the mumflies driven by a subscriptive economic lifestyle and a hand to mouth existence and really dont know what saving means. Hardly surprising when they have been raised to see debt on the credit card is a good thing and almost a badge of honour as is becoming a bankrupt racking up £60k uni debt fees and subsidised help to buy mortgages in a repeat of what essentially led to the last financial crash.
Excessive debt has literally made the world go round furthermore bailouts by mum and dad and those overloaded on pcps now pleading for a payment holiday and getting it no question due to finance companies likely GFVs facing a pummeling.
What incentive is there to save if the state always bails you out witnessed by reduced/non existent furloughing if you have over £15k in assets or free state funded care for those with relatives who have pissed away their money and have less than £23k in assets compared to those who have saved all their lives who have to pay fees in full even being forced to sell their house for the pleasure!
Yes this is an extreme rainy day as in effectively a 1 in a 100 year event plus many will lose jobs as a result but the principle of lack of forsight is essentially the same.
For many it is more a caseof who can we blame this time its not our fault we are the self entitled generation who need another bailout through no fault of our own lol.
Yes indeed..... all too easy these days.....Excessive debt has literally made the world go round furthermore bailouts by mum and dad and those overloaded on pcps now pleading for a payment holiday and getting it no question due to finance companies likely GFVs facing a pummeling.
What incentive is there to save if the state always bails you out witnessed by reduced/non existent furloughing if you have over £15k in assets or free state funded care for those with relatives who have pissed away their money and have less than £23k in assets compared to those who have saved all their lives who have to pay fees in full even being forced to sell their house for the pleasure!
Yes this is an extreme rainy day as in effectively a 1 in a 100 year event plus many will lose jobs as a result but the principle of lack of forsight is essentially the same.
For many it is more a caseof who can we blame this time its not our fault we are the self entitled generation who need another bailout through no fault of our own lol.
Maybe they should change the Nightingale Hospitals in to the new
Mega Nightingale Workhouses when this is over.....that could focus people attention!
Everyone working for a living....even if it’s just picking rope!
Harsh !
av185 said:
Andyoz said:
Some of the stimulus measures on the stock markets (I think they are more stabilization than stimulus TBH) are unprecedented and will have long term effects that only time will show up. Don't expect a nice bull stock market run over this coming decade like the last decade...they've injected greater volitility and it's going to be a roller coaster ride.
A volatile stock market provides great opportunities and it is often where the serious money is made.Agree with the debt amnesty clearly being a bad example to future generations but again it is symptomatic of a increasingly self entitled blameless culture and mindset generation unwilling to take responsibility for their own actions.
I'm not sure where pension funds will find solid yields as cash will still be crap and a volatile stock market could make for interesting discussions with clients if it tanks at the wrong time. Pensions funds are currently scrambling trying to deal with some of the 'investment' grade stocks they hold that are turning to junk grade fast (i.e. Ford). The rules require they have to offload them when that happens...
Interesting that on todays R4 Moneybox programme just finished now the Finance and Leasing Association confirmed they WILL require a government bailout in order to implement the payment holiday requested for by overstretched vehicle pcpers.
Yet another obvious example of taxpayers bailing out the debt junkies.
Yet another obvious example of taxpayers bailing out the debt junkies.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
They say people are unpredictable but their actions can be predicted by the incentives put in front of them.Offering near 0% on cash saving was always going to have this effect.
Interest rates should have been increased lightly at some stage to at least stagger the deleveraging. No one had the guts though.
We all recall how the super low interest rates were sold to us as an 'emergency measure' in 2008...it's been one long emergency then...
I don't think we will witness any real pain in the used car market till next year. Everything is on pause mode at present and it'll take 6-9 months before we start to understand the extent of any damage. In the immediate to short term there will simply be a massive reduction of movement in the car market. Buyers will either be holding off spending or sitting tight waiting for the fog to clear. Buyers will always pay top money for a car when business is good / job security is strong, than pay less when confidence is lost in their business / employment. We are in the middle of the great unknown.
Porsche911R said:
markets strong imo, too much scare stories. Ave person is also on 80% wage and not spending money so better off !
this is nothing like the 80's and this has had global world wide money pumped into it daily for this very reason.
Business/people want to go back to work and make money.
EU might fair worse who knows.
As for not driving your car lol get real.
what it needs is for people to PAY the real cost of living and TAX, ban dividends wages !! and put VAT up.
Ban PCP's also in fact ban any sort of balloon loan.
People have been living like kings on some one else money for too long a debt society at every level !
Now every one wants a bail out !
House shortage still happening, business will go back to normal imho.
They won't ban the dividends TAX dodge though.
when I was a kid you were lucky to see a nice car, my 1st car was £1600, now 17 year olds drive about in £50k cars and above that people rent £300k cars ! it's daft. This has to stop imo.
" the amounts owed by British households rose to a combined £428bn in the third quarter of 2018 - equivalent to £15,385 per home. "
If the virus stops this going forward it's a good thing.
I lived though 87 and 2008, it made no odds my house dropped in price in 87 , so what. I owned my car and did not change it, again so what.
people need to go back to buying what they can afford imho.
If you restrict credit - as you seem to think is a good idea - vast sections of the economy will contract (particularly those house builders who depend entirely on credit markets). Car makers won’t be able to shift any of the products they’ve spent fortunes developing. this is nothing like the 80's and this has had global world wide money pumped into it daily for this very reason.
Business/people want to go back to work and make money.
EU might fair worse who knows.
As for not driving your car lol get real.
what it needs is for people to PAY the real cost of living and TAX, ban dividends wages !! and put VAT up.
Ban PCP's also in fact ban any sort of balloon loan.
People have been living like kings on some one else money for too long a debt society at every level !
Now every one wants a bail out !
House shortage still happening, business will go back to normal imho.
They won't ban the dividends TAX dodge though.
when I was a kid you were lucky to see a nice car, my 1st car was £1600, now 17 year olds drive about in £50k cars and above that people rent £300k cars ! it's daft. This has to stop imo.
" the amounts owed by British households rose to a combined £428bn in the third quarter of 2018 - equivalent to £15,385 per home. "
If the virus stops this going forward it's a good thing.
I lived though 87 and 2008, it made no odds my house dropped in price in 87 , so what. I owned my car and did not change it, again so what.
people need to go back to buying what they can afford imho.
Edited by Porsche911R on Saturday 18th April 10:49
I agree with the principle of living within ones means but unwinding debt levels as you suggest will have some dire fallout. Careful what you wish for.
Dieselgate was quite ironic, because most of the latest euro compliant diesels were no less clean than their petrol equivalents.
But, a good example of how markets work on sentiment not facts.
However, agree with the comment above that this crisis will alter social attitudes and expedite the move to EV, hastening the demise of ICE.
But, a good example of how markets work on sentiment not facts.
However, agree with the comment above that this crisis will alter social attitudes and expedite the move to EV, hastening the demise of ICE.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Yeah, you might start to see some cracks widening in 3 months time, but I still think it'll be next yr before the maximum impact is known. I just don't think there will be enough movement in the car market to call anything for a while yet. It'll be like a pause button has been pushed. Dealers will obviously be wanting to shift stock they own to keep the wheels turning and all that, and there will obviously be plenty of behind the scenes deals etc, but I think the immediate concentration will be focussed on how they are going to move forward and adapt the business. S.O.R. It's already become more popular this past few years, but I think we will see a big shift towards this method of selling.
woollyjoe said:
tedblog said:
woollyjoe said:
Interesting that when dieselgate hit, used car prices stayed strong because less new car sales and less total movement.
Used diesel prices dropped , just ask anyone with a diesel Macan, and new diesel sales have been on the decline ever since.Gassing Station | Porsche General | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff