Will you be EV or internal combustion in ten years/?/
Discussion
http://business.financialpost.com/news/transportat...
I do not buy the timing on this precisely but I think its directionally correct. Already where I live, Teslas are a common sight, younger people are less likely to drive at all, car sharing is also common, and we have the usual anti-car local government.Big car meufaturers are pouring money into this dissection, self driving is not that far away.
Not something I relish, but....ten years out, I wonder how much of it will have happened.
I do not buy the timing on this precisely but I think its directionally correct. Already where I live, Teslas are a common sight, younger people are less likely to drive at all, car sharing is also common, and we have the usual anti-car local government.Big car meufaturers are pouring money into this dissection, self driving is not that far away.
Not something I relish, but....ten years out, I wonder how much of it will have happened.
Just what I expect me to be doing in ten years...
Have an electric daily maybe a model 3 or equivalent and still keep my MX-5 for pleasure. I really can't abide the thought of self driving cars and would hope that I will always be able to retain the option of driving myself.
I always find it interesting to think of what oil production is used for:
45% - Transport
42% - Energy & Heating
4% - Plastics
4% - Chemicals
5% - Others
The infrastructure to support these elements seems to be more than 8 years away from being changed, how long does it take to install enough wind turbines or commission a nuclear power station?
Moving cars to electricity will ramp demand on not only electricity but different types of material, to be quite frank there are too many variables to consider a rapid change and to me 8 years is rapid. Maybe 30+ years we will see internal combustion in museums.
I mean Hinckley Point C is forecast to be operational by 2025 (pull the other one, that will slip) in the meantime Magnox is operating and decommissioning 12 of the UK's Nuclear sites. We will be lucky to maintain status quo, let alone achieve anything bar maybe less reliance on oil in 8 years.
Have an electric daily maybe a model 3 or equivalent and still keep my MX-5 for pleasure. I really can't abide the thought of self driving cars and would hope that I will always be able to retain the option of driving myself.
I always find it interesting to think of what oil production is used for:
45% - Transport
42% - Energy & Heating
4% - Plastics
4% - Chemicals
5% - Others
The infrastructure to support these elements seems to be more than 8 years away from being changed, how long does it take to install enough wind turbines or commission a nuclear power station?
Moving cars to electricity will ramp demand on not only electricity but different types of material, to be quite frank there are too many variables to consider a rapid change and to me 8 years is rapid. Maybe 30+ years we will see internal combustion in museums.
I mean Hinckley Point C is forecast to be operational by 2025 (pull the other one, that will slip) in the meantime Magnox is operating and decommissioning 12 of the UK's Nuclear sites. We will be lucky to maintain status quo, let alone achieve anything bar maybe less reliance on oil in 8 years.
As the charging infrastructure gets built out I will certainly keep an eye on it..i am sure that there will be a wide variety of options and they will not all be bland.My original thought was an urban runabout like a Smart but i may eventually move to a condo which will definitely have charging capability; by then we might see more appealing cars than now. I do rate the pure EV Tesla very highly, but was much less impressed by some of the Hybrids like the i8.
I plan to switch one of the cars to EV only to cover short (less than 50 miles each way) trips in a couple of years. I'm hoping 2nd hand Leafs stay cheap so I can pick up a more recent one with the better range for a good discount. This is all tied into my plans to go solar + battery in a couple of years.
I never plan to go EV only within that time frame, I expect to still own a track car and a weekend car that will both be a high performance petrol car that is simple enough for me to be able to work on as I enjoy tinkering with them.
I will go EV only when self driving cars becomes mandatory for road use.
I never plan to go EV only within that time frame, I expect to still own a track car and a weekend car that will both be a high performance petrol car that is simple enough for me to be able to work on as I enjoy tinkering with them.
I will go EV only when self driving cars becomes mandatory for road use.
fatjon said:
Will be happy enough with an EV for day to day use when I can drive 1 hour each way to work and have a chance of making it and I can buy a new or newish one for the price of a small petrol car and when a new battery pack does not require me to sell my house.
^^^^This for me. AND when they deliver the above and look like normal cars.
Far too many of them just look weird.
daemon said:
fatjon said:
Will be happy enough with an EV for day to day use when I can drive 1 hour each way to work and have a chance of making it and I can buy a new or newish one for the price of a small petrol car and when a new battery pack does not require me to sell my house.
^^^^This for me. AND when they deliver the above and look like normal cars.
Far too many of them just look weird.
Agreed, not sure why so many of the designers take inspiration from 1980's sci-fi film props.Almost certainly internal combustion, likely cars that are being sold new about now in fact. I'm not at all against EVs, I just don't see lithium batteries as a practical or environmentally sound energy storage solution, as soon as something better and less damaging is available I'd be fine with using electric power for commuting and local trips.
RDMcG said:
I've just read the article properly, and all I can say is what a load of bulls
t.article said:
We'll switch to self drive EVs with an expected lifespan of 1 million miles
Great, so they won't rust any more? And how many cars are scrapped these days purely because of engine issues? The engine in my old Focus was fine, it was everything else that was knackered.article said:
by 2025 all new vehicles will be electric, all new buses, all new cars, all new tractors, all new vans, anything that moves on wheels will be electric, globally
So a trucker will be able to drive a 30+ tonne EV HGV across Europe in the same amount of time as it takes a traditional diesel? 
Don't get me wrong, I'm sure it will happen eventually, just not in 10 years.
Zetec-S said:
RDMcG said:
I've just read the article properly, and all I can say is what a load of bullst.article said:
We'll switch to self drive EVs with an expected lifespan of 1 million miles
Great, so they won't rust any more? And how many cars are scrapped these days purely because of engine issues? The engine in my old Focus was fine, it was everything else that was knackered.article said:
by 2025 all new vehicles will be electric, all new buses, all new cars, all new tractors, all new vans, anything that moves on wheels will be electric, globally
So a trucker will be able to drive a 30+ tonne EV HGV across Europe in the same amount of time as it takes a traditional diesel? Don't get me wrong, I'm sure it will happen eventually, just not in 10 years.
Its headline grabbing unsubstantiated nonsense in that timeframe
Zetec-S said:
article said:
We'll switch to self drive EVs with an expected lifespan of 1 million miles
Great, so they won't rust any more? And how many cars are scrapped these days purely because of engine issues? The engine in my old Focus was fine, it was everything else that was knackered.Agree with you on all the other points though, 10 years is very optimistic. No doubt you can find a similar article from 2007...
ad13 said:
No doubt you can find a similar article from 2007...
all new tech takes years to take hold and suffers overly optimistic forecasts in the early stages, but at some point the tide turns and everything then accelerates really fast (pun alert). DotCom boom crashed and yet the reality 10 years later was beyond what many had originally forecast in 1999. Now, after many years, EVs really are growing and i wouldn't be surprised to see them at 66%+ of new sales in 2027. The last 1/3 will be difficult to convert.ad13 said:
I'd imagine that rust won't be a factor in the 1 million miles as the general consensus with autonomous EVs is that you won't actually own one, just do something like Uber - you call it to your house, it takes you where you want to go. Obviously not as practical in the countryside as you might need to plan a bit in advance. Still, that means the car could be in 24/7 operation and racking up 200k+ miles a year.
Agree with you on all the other points though, 10 years is very optimistic. No doubt you can find a similar article from 2007...
I keep reading about the idea we won't own cars and will just use on demand. Again, who is coming up with this stuff, seriously? Great if you don't care about cars and live in a large city, but I can't see it becoming widespread.Agree with you on all the other points though, 10 years is very optimistic. No doubt you can find a similar article from 2007...
I accept EVs will eventually become the norm once the price comes down and the range is comparable with modern ICE standards. But for a lot of people owning a car is a (for want of a better word) 'emotional' experience. Yes, for plenty of people it's a method for getting from A to B, but it's still theirs, they can keep it shiny, impress the neighbours, use it when they want, etc. It will take a major cultural shift for people to give that up. (A lot bigger cultural shift than ICE to EV).
I'd rather pay more and own my car knowing I've looked after it, than running the autonomous taxi lottery and never knowing what to expect. Imagine ordering one for an early start to head off to a business meeting, only to find the last user was a group of lads on their way back from a stag do who'd had too much to drink.
tankplanker said:
I'm hoping 2nd hand Leafs stay cheap so I can pick up a more recent one with the better range for a good discount.
The problem with 2nd hand EVs isn't going to be the price of purchase - a 7-year-old EV won't be worth a row of beans, but it will be because the batteries last for about that long and are so expensive to replace, and no-one will want to spend £2-3000 on batteries for a car that's worth 5 hundred quid.If you don't believe me, what effect does (for instance) the cost of replacing an Audi Tiptronic gearbox (been there, done that, no more Audis for me...) have on the value of the car? It might sound like a great deal to buy an Audi that needs a new gearbox for £500, spend £2000 on the gearbox, and have a reliable car that at least won't need a gearbox rebuild - but in practice no-one does it and they all end up in scrapyards.
As the Leafs (Leaves?) will.
Just my 2 cents worth, but as a massive fan of bangernomics I don't see EVs fitting into the purchasing patterns of people like me...
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