Would I be mad to buy a 360CS at current prices?

Would I be mad to buy a 360CS at current prices?

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Discussion

suigeneris

Original Poster:

62 posts

117 months

Friday 31st March 2017
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In every recession and period of low interest rates, the wealthy stick money into alternative asset classes (cars, art, wine, etc) to get a better return than the banks and this arguably led to huge appreciations on (especially) classic and modern Ferrari and Porsche over the last few years. With prices almost tripling over only a few years (from circa £80-90k to £200-220k) on these cars, these buyers have bought but now stopped buying. I've been watching the classifieds for many weeks and nothing is shifting - if anything they bought in the early-mid £100s as they moved up (circa early 2015) and are now advertising them for sale. However, despite buying my last one for £80k, I'd pay current market price for a good example as life is too short. However, not wanting to lose a significant sum of money, the concern we've hit a plateau with these and consideration that something tripling in only a few years rather than a longer period of time can be anything other than "a bubble" has to weigh on the mind of any serious buyer at this level (especially as no one else seems to be buying but everyone is selling - the first sign of a bubble that's going to pop). What does everyone think of the current market for these cars and where do you think its going in the short to mid term?

Davey S2

13,075 posts

253 months

Friday 31st March 2017
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Depends if you actually want to drive it or not.

rubystone

11,252 posts

258 months

Friday 31st March 2017
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Davey S2 said:
Depends if you actually want to drive it or not.
Absolutely. I think they are great cars but I'd only buy a higher mileage car so that I could enjoy it without worrying about the impact on its value that actually using the damn thing would have.

suigeneris

Original Poster:

62 posts

117 months

Monday 3rd April 2017
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Yes I want to drive it, but that just means buying a "high mileage" car (e.g. £200-220k at current prices rather than £70-80k a few years ago) rather than a low mileage car (e.g. £250k+ at current prices rather than £100-110k a few years ago). I'm really interested to hear where others think the market for these is going *overall*. Can these really sustain at current range of prices when they're not selling? Based on experience/history could these ever return to prior prices or take that much of a knock? Buying at current prices and losing £10k by driving something over a few years is one thing, but its a very different thing to potentially losing 30-40% if the market takes a turn down.

Yipper

5,964 posts

89 months

Monday 3rd April 2017
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According to Patina Market Trends, based on 176 data points, the 360 CS average UK market asking price has fallen roughly -15% from its peak in the past 1 year. Some air has come out of the bubble.

911Thrasher

2,573 posts

198 months

Monday 3rd April 2017
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high mileage: "e.g. £200-220k at current prices rather than £70-80k a few years ago"

really?? also would be interested in understanding what was high mileage then...and now (now I suppose >30kmiles/50kkm)

as usual, if you actually want one and can afford one: buy the best condition for your money, rather than miles...these cars are very sensitive to their maintenance/condition



Edited by 911Thrasher on Monday 3rd April 15:49

WCZ

10,492 posts

193 months

Monday 3rd April 2017
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I'd say if you want to drive it then buy a LHD car or if you don't want to drive it / are only going to put extremely minimal miles then get a nice RHD example

Candellara

1,876 posts

181 months

Monday 3rd April 2017
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Yipper said:
-15% from its peak in the past 1 year. Some air has come out of the bubble.
The balloon is deflating OP - sit tight.

Condition is everything but ALL Ferrari's are super sensitive to mileage. Rightly or wrongly, anything over 30k miles is considered leggy. It's just the way the market is.

MDL111

6,895 posts

176 months

Monday 3rd April 2017
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I think if losing 40 percent hurts you properly (it would be for me assuming I do have to sell at some point, not that I ever plan on doing that when buying a car) then I would probably wait. I don't see them rising significantly - at least the LHD market seems to have stalled in Europe on a lot of ferraris after the aggressive price increases over 2014-2016 period. On the other hand life is short .... I think if prices come down again (remember how f40s were retarded money beginning of the 90s and then not worth much until about 10 years ago and now again 7 digits .... who knows what the future brings and if an f40 is ever again say 350k then imo a CS at 200k is not sustainable)

Edit: I do think in the medium term a CS will be worth more than a Speciale... just not sure what the level of either will be

Slickhillsy

1,772 posts

142 months

Tuesday 4th April 2017
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MDL111 said:
Edit: I do think in the medium term a CS will be worth more than a Speciale... just not sure what the level of either will be
Sorry but lovely as the CS is I personally cant ever see this happening. Aside from the capability & looks of the Speciale 'meaningfulness' of this car gives it the same if not more of the halo effect the CS enjoys.

MDL111

6,895 posts

176 months

Tuesday 4th April 2017
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Slickhillsy said:
MDL111 said:
Edit: I do think in the medium term a CS will be worth more than a Speciale... just not sure what the level of either will be
Sorry but lovely as the CS is I personally cant ever see this happening. Aside from the capability & looks of the Speciale 'meaningfulness' of this car gives it the same if not more of the halo effect the CS enjoys.
my main reasoning for this is that there are probably 3x - 4x as many Speciales as CSs .... might well be wrong though (although they are not even that far off nowadays I think - maybe 100k or so?)

15HN

416 posts

226 months

Tuesday 4th April 2017
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I've seen the same old cars for sale some for months on end. Theres also a big delta between the advertised price and the sold for price on the 1 or 2 that have sold over the last 12m.

Durzel

12,232 posts

167 months

Tuesday 4th April 2017
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It "feels" like prices have generally peaked, but at the same time nothing has really changed much in the world (if anything uncertainty is still as big a factor as it was a year ago) so while that, and incredibly low interest rates, are a factor I don't see any immediate risk of massive deflation of prices.

I guess people said similar about the housing market circa 2008 though.

ThreesixtyM

258 posts

196 months

Tuesday 4th April 2017
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MDL111 said:
I think if losing 40 percent hurts you properly (it would be for me assuming I do have to sell at some point, not that I ever plan on doing that when buying a car) then I would probably wait. I don't see them rising significantly - at least the LHD market seems to have stalled in Europe on a lot of ferraris after the aggressive price increases over 2014-2016 period. On the other hand life is short .... I think if prices come down again (remember how f40s were retarded money beginning of the 90s and then not worth much until about 10 years ago and now again 7 digits .... who knows what the future brings and if an f40 is ever again say 350k then imo a CS at 200k is not sustainable)

Edit: I do think in the medium term a CS will be worth more than a Speciale... just not sure what the level of either will be
If the F40 falls to £350k then Ferrari are going to struggle selling any new 488 "Speciale" editions.
Standard production cars 355,360,430 are far more vulnerable to price drops IMO. However, there are many buyers who want the Ferrari experience for whom the cost of buying new is unachievable.
My best guess is that prices have risen for multiple reasons and although they may cool off I doubt we'll see a £40k 360 Modena again, let alone an £80k CS. I'm biased, as I own one, but they're extraordinary cars and represent something that Ferrari has now lost, due to emissions/noise regs, etc, which goes beyond pure speed. If the OP is considering buying back in at £200k, that says something in itself.
These cars are less than 15 years old, I'd predict the real appreciation for them will grow over the next 15 years and at that point £200k will seem like a bargain.

baypond

398 posts

134 months

Tuesday 4th April 2017
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I agree, part of the increase we saw in the last few years is as a result of 'supercars' moving up in price from the £125k for a new 360 to £225k for a new 458. So I am of the opinion that a lot of these cars are not in a real bubble until they rise significantly above the current new model as happened in the 90's


MDL111

6,895 posts

176 months

Tuesday 4th April 2017
quotequote all
ThreesixtyM said:
MDL111 said:
I think if losing 40 percent hurts you properly (it would be for me assuming I do have to sell at some point, not that I ever plan on doing that when buying a car) then I would probably wait. I don't see them rising significantly - at least the LHD market seems to have stalled in Europe on a lot of ferraris after the aggressive price increases over 2014-2016 period. On the other hand life is short .... I think if prices come down again (remember how f40s were retarded money beginning of the 90s and then not worth much until about 10 years ago and now again 7 digits .... who knows what the future brings and if an f40 is ever again say 350k then imo a CS at 200k is not sustainable)

Edit: I do think in the medium term a CS will be worth more than a Speciale... just not sure what the level of either will be
If the F40 falls to £350k then Ferrari are going to struggle selling any new 488 "Speciale" editions.
Standard production cars 355,360,430 are far more vulnerable to price drops IMO. However, there are many buyers who want the Ferrari experience for whom the cost of buying new is unachievable.
My best guess is that prices have risen for multiple reasons and although they may cool off I doubt we'll see a £40k 360 Modena again, let alone an £80k CS. I'm biased, as I own one, but they're extraordinary cars and represent something that Ferrari has now lost, due to emissions/noise regs, etc, which goes beyond pure speed. If the OP is considering buying back in at £200k, that says something in itself.
These cars are less than 15 years old, I'd predict the real appreciation for them will grow over the next 15 years and at that point £200k will seem like a bargain.
I agree with you in the general sense but am not as confident that prices might not fall once cheap credit etc is gone - ultimately these cars are expensive and will only get more expensive to run ice they get older - see that PH story on the Murcielago and the 6k per from light - look at what you need to spend to rebuild a 512 TR transmission etc - I don't think "investors" will stay in the normal car market forever once it costs real money to own these cars once the cheap debt driven appreciation is gone

I do think in the medium term the limited cars such as CS will look god value wise but that mgH well be at a much lower level

100k for a car that costs 10k to run is still not insignificant

ThreesixtyM

258 posts

196 months

Wednesday 5th April 2017
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Investors don't tend to drive their cars, minimising running costs. Enthusiasts go in with their eyes open regarding potential costs, but mileage still tends to reduce with age.
I think Ferrari hit a sweet-spot with the 360 and particularly the CS; mechanically robust but not overly burdened with troublesome technology. It demands a lot from the driver, but deliverers an extraordinary driving experience. Beautiful to look at, with the soundtrack of a total yobbo. I think there are enough buyers valuing that experience to maintain an upwards trend in prices in the medium/long term.
Given the huge gains in 4 years, some owners may be cashing in, this will obviously slow the market. However, in 30 years, when we're all in electric and hybrid cars, it will seem extraordinary that cars like the CS were ever sold; that's where the value lies.

Edited by ThreesixtyM on Wednesday 5th April 10:12

911Thrasher

2,573 posts

198 months

Wednesday 5th April 2017
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and still relatively low production numbers

Just have a check on the European LHD market via autoscout24.eu and mobile.de, check the chassis numbers via challenge-stradale.com and you will soon realise that the non-accident cars irrespective of their mileage are not that quite common.

ThreesixtyM

258 posts

196 months

Wednesday 5th April 2017
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911Thrasher said:
and still relatively low production numbers

Just have a check on the European LHD market via autoscout24.eu and mobile.de, check the chassis numbers via challenge-stradale.com and you will soon realise that the non-accident cars irrespective of their mileage are not that quite common.
Drive one in the wet, in RACE, running on PZero Corsas and you'll understand why!!
I'm not sure a brown interior suits the CS !!

911Thrasher

2,573 posts

198 months

Wednesday 5th April 2017
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ThreesixtyM said:
911Thrasher said:
and still relatively low production numbers

Just have a check on the European LHD market via autoscout24.eu and mobile.de, check the chassis numbers via challenge-stradale.com and you will soon realise that the non-accident cars irrespective of their mileage are not that quite common.
Drive one in the wet, in RACE, running on PZero Corsas and you'll understand why!!
I'm not sure a brown interior suits the CS !!
mate don't get me wrong: I own a Stradale (actually my 2nd one, and use it all year long...did Spa with a little snow leftovers even) - I actually think it's a wonderful piece of kit (albeit slow compared to most RSs you come along on trackdays nowadays)
and what I'm also saying is that because there were few built, quite a few properly used on tracks in their young age, as time goes the amount of original panel ones and with a good service history is scarce, that's all!!!!