With the markets over the last week, will prices crash?
Discussion
People currently think interest rates are gunna go shooting up, which would make cars harder to finance, so in the short term, yes prices should fall.
Of course, people are wrong. There is no inflation, because wages won't rise. This is because rather than hiring more people in a tight labour market, you replace people with machines/software.
So after 6 months to 1 year, when rates are still sub 4%, prices will stabilise. Can't seem them going up, except for very unique stuff.
Of course, people are wrong. There is no inflation, because wages won't rise. This is because rather than hiring more people in a tight labour market, you replace people with machines/software.
So after 6 months to 1 year, when rates are still sub 4%, prices will stabilise. Can't seem them going up, except for very unique stuff.
isaldiri said:
the 'recent economic state' is still by and large in very good state with eco numbers looking pretty solid. A week of stock markets freaking out (mainly reversing January gains) and you seriously think the world is going to end again like 2008...?Its the latest news, and i was merly looking for what peoples views were. Nothing else
If anything it is the increased supply of supercars all competing for market share which will drive down prices rather than the ‘economic climate’. Market corrections being down to strengthening global economic growth are hardly bad news. Remember US markets had grown 40% in last 12 months, this is an expected correction and is considered quite normal. In fact similar falls have been present in almost each of the last 10 years at some point. I wouldn’t have thought markets acting normally would impact supercar prices, neither would relatively small increases in interest rates.
It’s not the markets directly that will cause prices to fall (or rise), it’s what’s driving markets. Namely all asset prices have been moving in the same direction since the GFC and it’s all down to QE.
The fear right now is that inflation is going to rise faster than central banks have forecast and will therefore mean monetary policy will have to tighten more quickly than planned.
If you believe the reason stock markets, fine wines, art, cars etc have all appreciated so much in the last few years is down to trillions of $s being introduced to the global financial system (and needing somewhere to be invested/stored) then it stands to reason that when some of this money is removed then the prices of these assets will fall.
The reason the fall could be sharp is that many of these asset purchases were/are done with borrowed money and there only has to be a fear of this borrowed money becoming more expensive (higher rate rises than expected) for buyers to turn to sellers.
The fear right now is that inflation is going to rise faster than central banks have forecast and will therefore mean monetary policy will have to tighten more quickly than planned.
If you believe the reason stock markets, fine wines, art, cars etc have all appreciated so much in the last few years is down to trillions of $s being introduced to the global financial system (and needing somewhere to be invested/stored) then it stands to reason that when some of this money is removed then the prices of these assets will fall.
The reason the fall could be sharp is that many of these asset purchases were/are done with borrowed money and there only has to be a fear of this borrowed money becoming more expensive (higher rate rises than expected) for buyers to turn to sellers.
Yipper said:
Wall Street has been on a gigantic bull run for the past 9 years, a trend almost unprecedented in financial history. One can say with 100% certainty there is going to be some froth taken off the top at some point. Markets never go up in a straight line.
Beautiful, Captain Obvious. Your "analisys" is simplistic at best. For a change. Comedy value though.DeuceDeuce said:
It’s not the markets directly that will cause prices to fall (or rise), it’s what’s driving markets. Namely all asset prices have been moving in the same direction since the GFC and it’s all down to QE.
The fear right now is that inflation is going to rise faster than central banks have forecast and will therefore mean monetary policy will have to tighten more quickly than planned.
If you believe the reason stock markets, fine wines, art, cars etc have all appreciated so much in the last few years is down to trillions of $s being introduced to the global financial system (and needing somewhere to be invested/stored) then it stands to reason that when some of this money is removed then the prices of these assets will fall.
The reason the fall could be sharp is that many of these asset purchases were/are done with borrowed money and there only has to be a fear of this borrowed money becoming more expensive (higher rate rises than expected) for buyers to turn to sellers.
Correct, but there has also been some major shifts in wealth (inequality) and regional growth of squillionaires sinced 2008. 1% of Americans have benefitted from 88% of aggregate increases in real US incomes, China has changed forever. Net, there is still plenty of wealth around albeit concentrated, and for mere mortals while QE has been reduced (don't forget Trump is about to pump new huge amounts through tax cuts) interests rates will still remain historically low even when they rise, because the debt levels are now so large only inflation will reduce them over time.The fear right now is that inflation is going to rise faster than central banks have forecast and will therefore mean monetary policy will have to tighten more quickly than planned.
If you believe the reason stock markets, fine wines, art, cars etc have all appreciated so much in the last few years is down to trillions of $s being introduced to the global financial system (and needing somewhere to be invested/stored) then it stands to reason that when some of this money is removed then the prices of these assets will fall.
The reason the fall could be sharp is that many of these asset purchases were/are done with borrowed money and there only has to be a fear of this borrowed money becoming more expensive (higher rate rises than expected) for buyers to turn to sellers.
Net, the rich will still seek assets rather than cash in the bank earning nothing. The only issue is they will chase prime assets not stuff which is good but has risen with the tide. So if you've a beautiful rare classic, sleep easy. If you bought a nice car at the height of market using borrowed money in the belief it would only increase, I would be heading for the exit.
And that's before factoring in a Corbyn win. If that happens, when it comes to cars, all bets are off.
Camlet said:
So if you've a beautiful rare classic, sleep easy. If you bought a nice car at the height of market using borrowed money in the belief it would only increase, I would be heading for the exit.
I agree.Mass-produced bitsa cars such as R8's etc are consumer items.
At the other end are coveted classic assets such as this beauty
https://www.goodwood.com/grrc/event-coverage/festi...
sparta6 said:
I agree.
Mass-produced bitsa cars such as R8's etc are consumer items.
At the other end are coveted classic assets such as this beauty
https://www.goodwood.com/grrc/event-coverage/festi...
Gorgeous as it is famous. We should create a PH crowd funded bid Mass-produced bitsa cars such as R8's etc are consumer items.
At the other end are coveted classic assets such as this beauty
https://www.goodwood.com/grrc/event-coverage/festi...
Camlet said:
DeuceDeuce said:
It’s not the markets directly that will cause prices to fall (or rise), it’s what’s driving markets. Namely all asset prices have been moving in the same direction since the GFC and it’s all down to QE.
The fear right now is that inflation is going to rise faster than central banks have forecast and will therefore mean monetary policy will have to tighten more quickly than planned.
If you believe the reason stock markets, fine wines, art, cars etc have all appreciated so much in the last few years is down to trillions of $s being introduced to the global financial system (and needing somewhere to be invested/stored) then it stands to reason that when some of this money is removed then the prices of these assets will fall.
The reason the fall could be sharp is that many of these asset purchases were/are done with borrowed money and there only has to be a fear of this borrowed money becoming more expensive (higher rate rises than expected) for buyers to turn to sellers.
Correct, but there has also been some major shifts in wealth (inequality) and regional growth of squillionaires sinced 2008. 1% of Americans have benefitted from 88% of aggregate increases in real US incomes, China has changed forever. Net, there is still plenty of wealth around albeit concentrated, and for mere mortals while QE has been reduced (don't forget Trump is about to pump new huge amounts through tax cuts) interests rates will still remain historically low even when they rise, because the debt levels are now so large only inflation will reduce them over time.The fear right now is that inflation is going to rise faster than central banks have forecast and will therefore mean monetary policy will have to tighten more quickly than planned.
If you believe the reason stock markets, fine wines, art, cars etc have all appreciated so much in the last few years is down to trillions of $s being introduced to the global financial system (and needing somewhere to be invested/stored) then it stands to reason that when some of this money is removed then the prices of these assets will fall.
The reason the fall could be sharp is that many of these asset purchases were/are done with borrowed money and there only has to be a fear of this borrowed money becoming more expensive (higher rate rises than expected) for buyers to turn to sellers.
Net, the rich will still seek assets rather than cash in the bank earning nothing. The only issue is they will chase prime assets not stuff which is good but has risen with the tide. So if you've a beautiful rare classic, sleep easy. If you bought a nice car at the height of market using borrowed money in the belief it would only increase, I would be heading for the exit.
And that's before factoring in a Corbyn win. If that happens, when it comes to cars, all bets are off.
If Wall Street goes down, everything else will go down with it.
The Bitcoin bubble has burst, the oil bubble has burst, Central London house bubble has been pricked, and Wall Street / FTSE are wobbling.
The only question now is whether Trump's free giveaways can pull Wall Street back from the brink in the next few weeks and extend the bull run for another year.
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