Not much seems to selling right now?

[monthefish]

Atomic12C said:

monthefish said:

If you're saying they're in denial, can you put forward your case for the contrary?

Surely that should be "put forward your case to support", rather than "the contrary" ?

No, your case for the contrary position to that held by those you accuse of being in denial.
(are you really wanting to debate this? )

Atomic12C said:

Anyways, as I mentioned in the previous post I have a few dealer friends who I've known for a long time. They are a bit old school and tell things bluntly how they are.
I take their comments with a great deal of respect as they have been in the business for a long time and they know their game.

I am hearing that the market is such that one of the main factors of mid to higher end performance car sales is from people 'trading up', and that the amount of wealth now required to jump from one level of performance car to the next is now well beyond the reach of those customers, they say this is was always going to be a result if prices kept rising like they have done over the past 8 years or so.

So fewer people trading up => fewer people selling => fewer cars in the market => more reason for prices to hold firm?

Atomic12C said:

Add with the recent interest rate increase with more to come, people could be seemingly happy to turn away from buying cars as a no loss return and go back to financial products.

How old are you? 'High' interest rates in the UK are 15%, or 10%+ at least.

Interest rates have risen once in the last 10 years, up to a heady 0.5% and, according to the Bank of England governor, it is likely to rise twice more over the next three years. I can't imagine any jump being greater than 1 percentage point, more likely 0.5% (max) each jump, therefore it is unlikely interest rates will be over 3% within the 3 year period, way below what could be considered a 'normal' UK interest rate (5-7%). There are far more factors that will effect all markets to greater extent, and therefore you could say that interest rates alone will have a negligible effect on the luxury car market. And I don't think there's much merit in speculating what will happen to the used supercar market after a 3 year period, as no-one can accurately predict this. (If anything, looking longer term, petrol supercars will become more valuable as they get phased out by electrification.)

The rest of your post is second-hand speculation about what some dealers may or may not do, if values were to start dropping.


I genuinely don't know what will happen with the market, but after accusing people of being in denial that hold a different view to your own, I had hoped for some verifiable irrefutable evidence of your beliefs, but sadly this hasn't materialised.


It's interesting that you mention McLaren as I think they are the most vulnerable brand in terms of residuals, and this is one reason why I shied away from the brand. I think the old guard brands will be far more stable if there is a weakening of prices.

[Atomic12C]

Bizarre reply.

Think its fair to say we both have different opinions on the current market and where it may be heading.

[monthefish]

Atomic12C said:

Bizarre reply.

In what way was it bizarre?

Atomic12C said:

Think its fair to say we both have different opinions on the current market and where it may be heading.

I have a prediction whereas you are certain (to the extent you state anyone who disagrees with you is 'in denial').

If I delay buying a supercar for, say, six months can you guarantee me I'll save money?

[_Leg_]

This is my motoring year:

Various trackdays including some in Europe - Exige 350 Sport
10 days round Austria with the lads - 458 Spider
3 weeks round Italy with the Missus - F12
10 days round Europe with the lads - Exige 350 Sport
Racing with three mates - (don't laugh) Two Citroen C1s including 24 hours at Spa (hahaha)
Various classic meets/runs - various classics

More trips to plan too.

and I've just got my E92 M3 out that I've had for 10 years from new ready for summer and it's lost around £40k since I bought it. Not moved it since 2016, can't wait to drive it on Friday when it's passed it's MOT.

The value is in what you do with em, not what they're worth. Time is the only asset worth anything, no matter what you do, the damned stuff just drains away. My youngest lad was 7 a moment ago, turns out the little bugger is 17 suddenly. What does that make me? Arggh!

10 years ago



Recently

[Atomic12C]

monthefish said:

I have a prediction whereas you are certain

That's great. Hope your prediction is accurate if you are looking to buy or sell in the future.

monthefish said:

If I delay buying a supercar for, say, six months can you guarantee me I'll save money?

I'd say go and ask a trustworthy market speculator - if you can find one.

[MingtheMerciless]

@ _Leg_ - fair play, that's the way to go. Nice pic to have. I only have a pic of my youngest in different cars though 'cos I never kept a car that long.

[RamboLambo]

_Leg_ said:

This is my motoring year:

Various trackdays including some in Europe - Exige 350 Sport
10 days round Austria with the lads - 458 Spider
3 weeks round Italy with the Missus - F12
10 days round Europe with the lads - Exige 350 Sport
Racing with three mates - (don't laugh) Two Citroen C1s including 24 hours at Spa (hahaha)
Various classic meets/runs - various classics

More trips to plan too.

and I've just got my E92 M3 out that I've had for 10 years from new ready for summer and it's lost around £40k since I bought it. Not moved it since 2016, can't wait to drive it on Friday when it's passed it's MOT.

The value is in what you do with em, not what they're worth. Time is the only asset worth anything, no matter what you do, the damned stuff just drains away. My youngest lad was 7 a moment ago, turns out the little bugger is 17 suddenly. What does that make me? Arggh!

10 years ago



Recently

The white paint on the windows of your house has gone a bit yellowy over those 10 years

[dsl2]

Excellent post Leg, hit the nail firmly on the head there old son.

I bet your lad is absolutely chomping at the bit waiting to reach a suitable age to be added onto your insurance policy & access to all those lovely cars!

[_Leg_]

RamboLambo said:

The white paint on the windows of your house has gone a bit yellowy over those 10 years

It's paint. It'll be stone colour in a few weeks. She that shall be obeyed asks, she gets.

dsl2 said:

Excellent post Leg, hit the nail firmly on the head there old son.

I bet your lad is absolutely chomping at the bit waiting to reach a suitable age to be added onto your insurance policy & access to all those lovely cars!

Neither he nor his 20 year old brother are in the least bit interested. I bought them nice, new cars for their 17th birthdays (suitable for a 17 year old that is) and they barely wash them. I took them both on road trips last year. The eldest round Austria in the Exige and he seemed to enjoy it. The 17 year old fell asleep in the car a few times on the NC500, in the 458 Spider. I mean, ffs. Fell asleep! When my mates were with me. So embarrassed. Moaned there was no 4G all the way round too.

I'm fairly sure someone switched my kids at the hospital, or the postman 20 years ago wasn't into cars. :-(

[dsl2]

Blimey he must be nuts, my lads of 20 & 22 yrs seem determined to emulate everything dangerous I’ve done but sooner on in life than I managed.

I have to fight them off with a stty stick to keep them away from my cars!

[_Leg_]

dsl2 said:

Blimey he must be nuts, my lads of 20 & 22 yrs seem determined to emulate everything dangerous I’ve done but sooner on in life than I managed.

I have to fight them off with a stty stick to keep them away from my cars!

Suits me. One's at Uni, one at college and my wife is a Dr of Clinical Science at University 4 days a week. I'm retired and 4 days a week I have absolute freedom to arse about with cars. I encourage them to continue being uninterested in what I am doing (and spending).

As boring as it is, lets let the thread get back on topic. Cars, not selling. I've an idea, keep em and drive em. Tadaaa!

[Roof down]

_Leg_ said:

This is my motoring year:

Various trackdays including some in Europe - Exige 350 Sport
10 days round Austria with the lads - 458 Spider
3 weeks round Italy with the Missus - F12
10 days round Europe with the lads - Exige 350 Sport
Racing with three mates - (don't laugh) Two Citroen C1s including 24 hours at Spa (hahaha)
Various classic meets/runs - various classics

More trips to plan too.

and I've just got my E92 M3 out that I've had for 10 years from new ready for summer and it's lost around £40k since I bought it. Not moved it since 2016, can't wait to drive it on Friday when it's passed it's MOT.

The value is in what you do with em, not what they're worth. Time is the only asset worth anything, no matter what you do, the damned stuff just drains away. My youngest lad was 7 a moment ago, turns out the little bugger is 17 suddenly. What does that make me? Arggh!

10 years ago



Recently

Spot on, well said that person

[andyman_2006]

_Leg_ said:

As boring as it is, lets let the thread get back on topic. Cars, not selling. I've an idea, keep em and drive em. Tadaaa!

^^^ This! Buy cars you like, enjoy, and not something purely because its going to go up in value. Then who cares if it does not sell. Like you _Leg_ I've had my M3 10+ years and not selling it anytime soon.

For what it's worth i dont think car values (Classic/Modern classic are going to totally crash, and we are not going to ever return to anything like 80's values or even 90's values) so i would say to people buy, enjoy soon as you can, stop waiting as time just moves on.

[Candellara]

POORCARDEALER said:

Havnt the private owners had it their own way too in a bull market?

My phone has not stopped ringing in the last few weeks with privates (and some trade) realising that the booms over & trying to offload their cars, at yesterdays money of course.....will be a few months yet before the market settles and the adjustment is made

and down comes the pack of cards as predicted

There is now so much talk of the impending doom which will further slow sales to the point of a massive re-adjustment

I predict that at least 30% will come out of the Classic / Modern Classic market in the next year - maybe 50%

Market has been way overheated for the last 3 years

[larrylamb11]

andyman_2006 said:

.....

For what it's worth i dont think car values (Classic/Modern classic are going to totally crash, and we are not going to ever return to anything like 80's values or even 90's values) .....

Cars are the same as any other asset class. Prices are driven by the fundamental forces of supply and demand. They are subject to the same vagaries of supply and demand as influence stocks, bonds, property, commodities, wine, whiskey, art, watches, bitcoin etc. or even tulips! The pricing is driven by how people feel - sentiment - and governed by human psychology. Humans have been making the same mistakes in speculative investing for centuries and will continue to make those mistakes for centuries to come - it's hard wired and repeats time after time after time. We never learn as a species partly because we can't evolve fast enough and partly because that same thinking is actually remarkably good at keeping us continually looking forward and expanding as the dominant species.

This is relevant because these repeated behaviours produce recognisable patterns which allows us to forecast what is most probable to happen next. You may not think values are going to crash, but history (driven by human behaviour) point to that being most probable. It may not be now, but it is likely to occur and, again, human nature generally underestimates both how long it takes for these events to unfold and how far pricing will correct. The chance of a return to '80s or '90s values in real terms is far higher than you would expect.

This doesn't just apply to cars, but to every asset class. Nobody trading Brent crude at $140 per barrel in '08 could have imagined it would be trading at $34 before the year was out. Likewise Deutsche Bank shares from 160 to 25. These significant corrections are everywhere in every asset class - cars included - and always have been. We can be certain that they will occur again in the future.

Presently, the evidence points to a correction in classic pricing having already begun - we're well beyond the 'Stealth Phase', certainly past the 'Awareness Phase' and probably through the 'Mania Phase'. We aren't seeing the 'New Paradigm' record prices that were being set last year at auction and there is plenty of denial around evidenced by vehicles failing to sell quickly, as they would in the 'greed' and 'delusion' phases. Consequently we are most likely to be in the 'Blow off Phase' and can expect pricing to behave accordingly.

Looking objectively, where do you think classic car pricing is on this chart?



By the way, assuming that low interest rates will be the saviour of the sector is unwise. Again, interest rates are cyclical with a pretty well defined mean. We have spent well over a decade significantly below the mean. At some point that will reverse to take us back to mean (arguably that reversal has already begun), most likely with a spike above before settling back to the mean level. Given that, again, interest rates are determined by humans and thus subject to human psychology, it is highly likely the mistakes of the past will be repeated again. It wouldn't be at all unsurprising if the central banks are too dovish on monetary policy for too long, allowing inflation to start running and forcing them to try and chase it with interest rates in order to wrestle it back under control - cue interest rates at 10%+ with rampant inflation. The US is actively stoking inflation (trade war anyone?), possibly intentionally, as they need to try and inflate their way out of the insurmountable debt mountain they are drowning under. In real terms inflation devalues assets whose prices remain stagnant.

The secret to all investing is to recognise where you are on that chart above and to trade accordingly, aiming to enter in the Stealth Phase or at the first Bear Trap in the Awareness Phase and exit in the Mania Phase when there is still sufficient demand to quickly mop up your supply. Obviously not all asset pricing behaves exactly as above all the time, so some interpretation and adjustment is involved, but the general pattern repeats eternally. You aren't trying to enter at the bottom and sell at the top - just recognise which way the tide is flowing so you can jump in and ride along for a bit. If I was actively investing in cars right now, I know which side of the supply / demand equation I would be on.......

Edited by larrylamb11 on Wednesday 11th April 16:03

[mike01606]

Am I the only one who actually wants this ^^^ to materialise?

As a mere financial mortal who loves cars and other similar things (avoiding the word asset), it gives me the opportunity to trade onwards and upwards that has been unavailable for the last 3-4 years. I'd like a 550/599 but can't pay £140k for one so I'm sat looking at good ones (550's) sat at £90k, hoping they will be £50k soon, even if that means my starship mileage 360 will only be worth £2.50. I intend to die with something in the garage so what does it matter what it's worth.

As said earlier, time is the only precious thing....

[MDL111]

mike01606 said:

Am I the only one who actually wants this ^^^ to materialise?

As a mere financial mortal who loves cars and other similar things (avoiding the word asset), it gives me the opportunity to trade onwards and upwards that has been unavailable for the last 3-4 years. I'd like a 550/599 but can't pay £140k for one so I'm sat looking at good ones (550's) sat at £90k, hoping they will be £50k soon, even if that means my starship mileage 360 will only be worth £2.50. I intend to die with something in the garage so what does it matter what it's worth.

As said earlier, time is the only precious thing....

the cheapest left hand drive cars are creeping in that direction again (the one below was once listed for 87k I think a year or year and a half ago)

https://suchen.mobile.de/fahrzeuge/details.html?id...

[andy355]

For the London car market, in my humble opinion it is Brexit uncertainty that is making people hold off. Loads of bankers who can afford these toys don't know whether they will be based abroad, or where or when. And if they do need to move there is nowhere good compared to London so many are contemplating commuting and leaving families behind. This kind of thinking plus the damage from stamp duty increases for second properties meaning the property market is no longer a dead cert to rise and over supply of expensive new builds where some people took 20-30% hits has an an effect. The new shiny toy is something that is easy to forgo. Add to that uncertainty about how many years you may even be able to drive a combustion engine car in central London, an economy that I think is faltering, a central bank that wants to raise rates as fixated by the inflation increase that Brexit pound drop created which is now unwinding, foreign people and capital leaving again due to Brexit uncertainty or feeling less welcome here, plus a strengthening economy in core Europe all add up. I know that London is not the whole market but must be big enough to take the shine off demand

[Drclarke]

MDL111 said:

the cheapest left hand drive cars are creeping in that direction again (the one below was once listed for 87k I think a year or year and a half ago)

https://suchen.mobile.de/fahrzeuge/details.html?id...

That’s done 130k miles so not exactly a great barometer of everyone’s perceived price crash!

[RamboLambo]

We are all dooooooomed !