Chris Harris's Column -- Burst Bubble;Massive Dump;Bargains

[WCZ]

Raven Flyer said:

Perhaps the original owner woke up one morning and realised it was all hype and he had bought an ugly 4 seat car. It's definitely not Ferrari's finest.

[runs for cover]

many people were told to buy a lusso in order to get a pista

they'd have been better off paying the overs though as a pista isn't anywhere near £100k over

[ferrisbueller]

easytiger123 said:

Davey S2 said:

Tom Hartley Jnr has this V12 Lusso for sale at £215K

https://www.tomhartleyjnr.com/car/stock/2019/ferra...

List price was 'over £315K'

Just 474 miles on it.

Just on those prices that's over £210 per mile in depreciation alone.

Add in Hartley's profit and that is an eye watering loss for the original owner.

Lovely spec and quite clearly staggering depreciation, but whoever buys it could quite easily keep it for a year, put another 1,000 ish miles on it and be flogging it for £150k at best.

It heralds a return to normality but with an inevitable over-correction first, given the volume of some models that are being produced.

Recurring assumption is that the original buyer paid list.

[Caddyshack]

Jules360 said:

Drl22 said:

Lovely spec? That colour interior is probably one of the reasons it is so cheap.

Really ? I think it looks very nice

+1 for me, I like it

[ANOpax]

Caddyshack said:

Jules360 said:

Drl22 said:

Lovely spec? That colour interior is probably one of the reasons it is so cheap.

Really ? I think it looks very nice

+1 for me, I like it

+ another 1.

The Ferrari semi-aniline leathers are lovely and there’s a lot of CF in the spec which also lifts the interior.

[Candellara]

Is it running costs that are sending the price of these through the floor?

https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/201...

These are obviously now circa low 60's trade for an early car?

[MDL111]

Candellara said:

Is it running costs that are sending the price of these through the floor?

https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/201...

These are obviously now circa low 60's trade for an early car?

this looks really good and as I suspected when they were launched, the clean design is ageing really well.
this one has steel brakes too, which I would prefer ... mmmhhh need to look at the classifieds again

I am very tempted to buy one in the UK before Brexit, so I can export it to Germany.
I am not too worried about the running costs, as as best as I can tell they are not different from a Ferrari (at least if you are stuck with main dealers anyway, which I am due to warranty)

[MDL111]

this one looks very cool - bit pricey for me though

https://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/...

[Davey S2]

Someone I follow on Twitter has just picked up a very nice, low miles 675 LT in the nice Nardo grey colour for sub £200K.

Wasn't long ago these were well north of £300K

[Candellara]

MDL111 said:

this looks really good and as I suspected when they were launched, the clean design is ageing really well.
this one has steel brakes too, which I would prefer ... mmmhhh need to look at the classifieds again

I am very tempted to buy one in the UK before Brexit, so I can export it to Germany.
I am not too worried about the running costs, as as best as I can tell they are not different from a Ferrari (at least if you are stuck with main dealers anyway, which I am due to warranty)

They're starting to look like value but these have dropped over £30k in the last year so I can see them being sub £50k over the next year or so. There's lots and lots to choose from.

[MDL111]

Candellara said:

MDL111 said:

this looks really good and as I suspected when they were launched, the clean design is ageing really well.
this one has steel brakes too, which I would prefer ... mmmhhh need to look at the classifieds again

I am very tempted to buy one in the UK before Brexit, so I can export it to Germany.
I am not too worried about the running costs, as as best as I can tell they are not different from a Ferrari (at least if you are stuck with main dealers anyway, which I am due to warranty)

They're starting to look like value but these have dropped over £30k in the last year so I can see them being sub £50k over the next year or so. There's lots and lots to choose from.

just realised (i) that they dropped quite substantially in Germany since I last checked (now cars below 100k Euros) and (ii) sterling is actually higher than I thought.

I fully expect them to be sub 50k in the not too distant future - but I expect all cars to shed quite a lot of value over the next 12-24 months, so just need to be happy with the basis I own the car at (and not have to sell it...)

[AmoCS]

Davey S2 said:

Someone I follow on Twitter has just picked up a very nice, low miles 675 LT in the nice Nardo grey colour for sub £200K.

Wasn't long ago these were well north of £300K

Quite a few on AT sub £200k

https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/201...

[WCZ]

djroj2001 said:

Supposedly around 3000 spec's worldwide, approx double the Scud and more than double the CS..

quite a lot but there were ~2000 f40's made and there is still a lot of demand for them

[Candellara]

MDL111 said:

just realised (i) that they dropped quite substantially in Germany since I last checked (now cars below 100k Euros) and (ii) sterling is actually higher than I thought.

I fully expect them to be sub 50k in the not too distant future - but I expect all cars to shed quite a lot of value over the next 12-24 months, so just need to be happy with the basis I own the car at (and not have to sell it...)

and as this bracket drops (along with 458's) this, in turn will hammer the older cars.

Why would you buy an old Ferrari 360 when you can have a McLaren for 50k or a 458 for under 80k etc etc etc There's a huge amount of cars for sale - total oversupply in the market place. 78 Ferrari 360's - 128 denominations of the 458 just on Pistonheads alone. Ironically, there are only 30 12c's available and we see prices coming down daily. This isn't going to end well.

The old investor graph would depict that prices actually fall to lower than the original pre-boom pricing before a return to the mean. I'd suggest that given the current market pricing we are on course for this to happen.

This is when all the older cars start to fall into disrepair and servicing schedules etc go out the window. The values are falling but the cost of holding the asset doesn't. People then look to get shot of them or they simply aren't maintained or looked after as they should be.

Edited by Candellara on Thursday 31st October 13:11

Edited by Candellara on Thursday 31st October 13:14

Edited by Candellara on Thursday 31st October 13:15

[MDL111]

WCZ said:

djroj2001 said:

Supposedly around 3000 spec's worldwide, approx double the Scud and more than double the CS..

quite a lot but there were ~2000 f40's made and there is still a lot of demand for them

I thought it was more like 1,200? Weren’t they 150k a little more than a decade ago (2005/2006) though, so didn’t exactly protect them from losing quite a lot of value from the highs end of the 80s/beg of 90s. All about timing I guess

[cgt2]

I've seen this cycle three times over the past 25 years, was chatting to a very well known South East supercar dealer established since the 80s about this thread (not Talacrest but one of John's contemporaries). He shocked me a bit when he said he absolutely would not put any substantial money into stock at the moment with the present market. He's sitting on a couple of cars but by his standards nothing too lumpy and he is expecting to lose money on those.

Shock because I've known him in the past to buy things like F40's and 959's on a whim and happily take his chances on quite expensive machinery.

Boom and bust has happened before and will happen again (anyone remember the Ferrari market in 1989?).

[f1ten]

Correct just over 1200 f40s made.
But they have become Investment grade cars now so doubt 150k will ever return

I'm not convinced we Will see a good 458 at 80k. Most are owned and will just be put back in the garage. But fully agree there are too many cars and too much choice.
Aston and mclaren are the ones that ramped up production the most and their residuals don't stand up to the levels Ferrari or porsche do...

[djroj2001]

MDL111 said:

WCZ said:

djroj2001 said:

Supposedly around 3000 spec's worldwide, approx double the Scud and more than double the CS..

quite a lot but there were ~2000 f40's made and there is still a lot of demand for them

I thought it was more like 1,200? Weren’t they 150k a little more than a decade ago (2005/2006) though, so didn’t exactly protect them from losing quite a lot of value from the highs end of the 80s/beg of 90s. All about timing I guess

F40 had a production of about 1300 units, so indeed not a particularly rare car.

[hunter 66]

One other ominous factor is the EV car situation , as soon these will be the norm and even getting gas may become as issue . Sure these cars are not dailies but .

[MDL111]

hunter 66 said:

One other ominous factor is the EV car situation , as soon these will be the norm and even getting gas may become as issue . Sure these cars are not dailies but .

agree, once I am no longer allowed to keep my car in the city centre it will become a right pain and I'll probably just buy a race car and keep it at a track somewhere - I think race cars might be the ones that will appreciate the moste / lose the least value over the next decade / decade and a half

[hunter 66]

Yes , Classic events will be more popular , Endurance Legends ( LMP and GT cars from 1995 to 2005 ) is really taking off , and next year will be back at Le Mans .
EV there and back