Chris Harris's Column -- Burst Bubble;Massive Dump;Bargains

Chris Harris's Column -- Burst Bubble;Massive Dump;Bargains

Author
Discussion

topjay

698 posts

165 months

Monday 25th March
quotequote all
Odd market, dealers won't bid to buy cars outright but also won't reduce sale prices, i assume as they don't own them so they don't mind them sitting around for a while.

Have been following a few cars looking for bargains as has a friend of mine even more keenly so as he wants one for the summer so has been bidding on stuff for six months with no success, none of the deals being offered are actually that great. In general the good spec cars in good colours/trim are not priced much differently to ones with virtually no options, the good ones seem to sell and the others don't. At least from my observations, I'm sure there are the odd exception but for main dealer cars they are not moving the prices enough to feel that it is really even much reduced from the asking price.

footsoldier

1,459 posts

139 months

Monday 25th March
quotequote all
RDMcG said:
He is right...big correction going on.

Simon Kidston, (who knows exactly what he's doing) looked at the Scottsdale classic auction this year:


73% of cars sold below low estimate

87% below mid estimate

6% above high estimate

example:
Ferrari 330 GTC $374k in 2010,$946k in 2013, $687k today.

I think the bubble has indeed burst. I saw the crazy GT3RS stuff ( I have some of them) and could not believe the mad prices people would pay. I am not a speculator so paid no premium and held onto the cars for use, not for profit.
What you need to look at is all of the auction results, which will tell you the market is falling and has not bottomed out. As Scottsdale, the estimates were all lower than last year, but the achieved prices are lower still. Until that stops, it's a falling market.

Simon Kidston does indeed know his stuff, but i know enough to see that his overall "index" figure is putting a brave face on the market.
It doesn't correlate with the actual results. Pseudo-science

dinkel

25,034 posts

205 months

Tuesday 26th March
quotequote all
aaron_2000 said:
£15k? I was watching a Quentin Willson video from Fifth Gear dated to around 2003, a good 635csi then was about £4k.
15k for a GT4...

hunter 66

2,857 posts

167 months

Tuesday 26th March
quotequote all
Certain Race cars have seen strong growth

aaron_2000

3,233 posts

30 months

Tuesday 26th March
quotequote all
dinkel said:
aaron_2000 said:
£15k? I was watching a Quentin Willson video from Fifth Gear dated to around 2003, a good 635csi then was about £4k.
15k for a GT4...
dinkel said:
Same thing will happen (happends) to youngtimers. 635 CSi was 15k and is now double...

Caddyshack

1,569 posts

153 months

Tuesday 26th March
quotequote all
Pericoloso said:
aaron_2000 said:
A few up on Ebay, but I imagine you're right, well back to dreaming.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/ford-sierra-cosworth-4x...
I missed that one......getmecoat

The Escort wheels don't work on these though.
It’s ok, they have 4 wheel nuts, if you undo them you can take the wheels off and put new ones on.

aaron_2000

3,233 posts

30 months

Tuesday 26th March
quotequote all
Caddyshack said:
Pericoloso said:
aaron_2000 said:
A few up on Ebay, but I imagine you're right, well back to dreaming.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/ford-sierra-cosworth-4x...
I missed that one......getmecoat

The Escort wheels don't work on these though.
It’s ok, they have 4 wheel nuts, if you undo them you can take the wheels off and put new ones on.
The wheels are worth a good amount right? I remember the Wheeler Dealers Sierra Saph where he let them go for hardly anything

Caddyshack

1,569 posts

153 months

Tuesday 26th March
quotequote all
People seem to want the 18 inch reps, I think the originals are only about £1000 but that’s a good % of that sale price

TobyTR

713 posts

93 months

Tuesday 26th March
quotequote all
I always think back to May 2009 - Ferrari 360s and the like with 30k miles dropping to £28k (my neighbour picked up a bargain then!). Similarly although slightly different, a friend at the time only getting £20k for his three-year-old M6 V10 coupe; why he chose to sell at the worst possible time was baffling.

iirc, 612 Scagliettis were around £60k then too.

There will be some bargains to be had over the next 18 months or so, imo. It's been a bubble for far too long

dinkel

25,034 posts

205 months

Wednesday 27th March
quotequote all
aaron_2000 said:
dinkel said:
aaron_2000 said:
£15k? I was watching a Quentin Willson video from Fifth Gear dated to around 2003, a good 635csi then was about £4k.
15k for a GT4...
dinkel said:
Same thing will happen (happends) to youngtimers. 635 CSi was 15k and is now double...
A good CSi has been 15k-ish for ages at least over here. Anyways: to restore any 70s/80s car costs money and I guess that's why prices of these cars are rising.

RobDown

3,641 posts

75 months

Friday 29th March
quotequote all
AndrewD said:
He is no more “qualified” than anybody else with their personal crystal ball and a hope to pick up a bargain.

I think a return to the days when people bought cars for what they were is sadly long gone.
I dont understand. He’s talking about something that has already happened (and is still happening). We can also see the drops in prices. Crystal balls are for gazing into the future...

Drl22

157 posts

12 months

Saturday 30th March
quotequote all
TobyTR said:
I always think back to May 2009 - Ferrari 360s and the like with 30k miles dropping to £28k (my neighbour picked up a bargain then!). Similarly although slightly different, a friend at the time only getting £20k for his three-year-old M6 V10 coupe; why he chose to sell at the worst possible time was baffling.

iirc, 612 Scagliettis were around £60k then too.

There will be some bargains to be had over the next 18 months or so, imo. It's been a bubble for far too long
Unless brexit creates a huge recession I don’t see where you think prices are going to go. 2009 was the epicentre of one of the worst financial events of modern times so the resulting effect on car prices was to be expected, I cannot see how this can relate to current times right at this moment. Sure this kind of crash will happen again at some point but not in the near future.

Candellara

1,006 posts

129 months

Saturday 30th March
quotequote all
Harris is correct in saying that the bubble has already burst. The asset bubble is now deflating. Find a dealer that will buy your car for cash and just see how much you get bid.

Most stock is SOR and not a lot is moving at all

Brexit, political and economic uncertainty and the fact that a lot of old rubbish in the market has had the prices artificially inflated over the last few years. Just take a look at some of the rust ridden rubbish on Ebay - Porsche 944 Turbos with 200k miles at £16k etc. Complete madness

Prices have been dropping for a while and now, no one wants to catch a falling knife so down they will come further. The bottom is going to come out of this market over the next few years and then the cycle may start over again.


What will be interesting will be the balloons payable on cars purchased at big premiums over the last couple of years. Hope they're all sorted with GAP insurance


Welshbeef

38,206 posts

145 months

Saturday 30th March
quotequote all
Straw poll - assuming posters here have classic cars are they financed or owned outright?

Also if the bottom did start to fall out of the market would you cash out or did you buy said cars as it’s the car you always dreamed of as such it’s value is irrelevant as you’d never sell.

markcoznottz

5,285 posts

171 months

Saturday 30th March
quotequote all
Drl22 said:
TobyTR said:
I always think back to May 2009 - Ferrari 360s and the like with 30k miles dropping to £28k (my neighbour picked up a bargain then!). Similarly although slightly different, a friend at the time only getting £20k for his three-year-old M6 V10 coupe; why he chose to sell at the worst possible time was baffling.

iirc, 612 Scagliettis were around £60k then too.

There will be some bargains to be had over the next 18 months or so, imo. It's been a bubble for far too long
Unless brexit creates a huge recession I don’t see where you think prices are going to go. 2009 was the epicentre of one of the worst financial events of modern times so the resulting effect on car prices was to be expected, I cannot see how this can relate to current times right at this moment. Sure this kind of crash will happen again at some point but not in the near future.
The rush into assets was the result of the 2007- recession, I think as you said 2009 and zirp panicked investors. Make no mistake though, pre 2009, loads of cars were dirt cheap. I looked at a few 930 turbos priced at around £15k in 2006, old models of very variable quality, but worth it just for the shell. Pre zirp you had sound money andcheap credit, absolutely toxic for residuals. There were exceptions, 993 turbo, escort cosworth, carrera rs 2.7, but they were the exception that proved the rule. 2003, McLaren F1 residuals were extremely shakey, and 964 rs, were available for £15k. They had a bad image, but the trackday scene helped boost interest.

Biggest problem is that a boom pulls all the Shiite up with the good stuff, the condition of some 355 and 360's up close is shocking. Interesting times ahead.

Hurri360

36 posts

22 months

Saturday 30th March
quotequote all
There’s also other non cyclic factors at work that are affecting normal car sales/production.
Lots of car buyers, especially city residents, are holding back or buying hybrid or electric cars at present. When you read all the future restrictions coming sooner rather than generally thought I would assume a lot of potential super car buyers are doing the same until things become clearer. Then maybe another boom?😳

br d

7,184 posts

173 months

Saturday 30th March
quotequote all
In the light of these new speed limiters it would be really handy to know which models have the tech installed ready to be switched on. Not information I imagine the manufacturers will want to disclose though. It's either a case of buy the last model you can just before it all becomes compulsory or if it's already too late buy the last decent car that didn't have it before the prices rise.

Either way I think it's the beginning of the end in the country at least (UK). I can't see the general public being happy that they will be forced to buy a limited new car while previous owners can still break speed limits. I sense heavy legislation coming.

Ferruccio

923 posts

66 months

Saturday 30th March
quotequote all
Welshbeef said:
Straw poll - assuming posters here have classic cars are they financed or owned outright?

Also if the bottom did start to fall out of the market would you cash out or did you buy said cars as it’s the car you always dreamed of as such it’s value is irrelevant as you’d never sell.
1. Always cash.
Buying what you must expect to be a depreciating asset with borrowed money has never seemed sensible to me.
As it happens, they are all worth more than I paid for them currently but that’s a surprise and a bonus.
To all those who say I can make a greater return on the money borrowed than the bank charges, maybe; maybe not.

2. I’ve never sold a car.

Welshbeef

38,206 posts

145 months

Saturday 30th March
quotequote all
Are individuals like Schmee who (per his recent YouTube) finances all of his vehicles exposed like King Canute?

Drl22

157 posts

12 months

Saturday 30th March
quotequote all
Ferruccio said:
1. Always cash.
Buying what you must expect to be a depreciating asset with borrowed money has never seemed sensible to me.
As it happens, they are all worth more than I paid for them currently but that’s a surprise and a bonus.
To all those who say I can make a greater return on the money borrowed than the bank charges, maybe; maybe not.

2. I’ve never sold a car.
The “always cash” posters are just so boring. Some people have better things to do with their cash. I get it, you have more cash than you do brains to invest it. Wonderful, go you!