Will Corona effect the Supercar Market
Discussion
SVJBalboni said:
Plenty of tire kickers out there who will never buy a supercar even if they drop 90%. Go on the Rolex forum and you have the same idiots going on about how Rolex's will drop 50% and they'll buy two.
Its interesting how watches parallel cars. I got my first GMT in the 90's when Ferraris were relatively rare too. A Daytona in those days was similar money and I bought the GMT because the Daytona had no date (which still annoys me even though I wear one daily now).
Nowadays there are lots more Ferraris and lots more Rolexes..and in both cases some of the owners who just want the brand have no clue (not directed to anyone here but thinking of a friend who bought a Daytona and had no idea how the chronos work and didn't know the pushers unscrew!).
Now let's see if I can score a Patek Nautilus for sensible money... there do seem to be a few more watches on the market over recent weeks too.
cgt2 said:
SVJBalboni said:
Plenty of tire kickers out there who will never buy a supercar even if they drop 90%. Go on the Rolex forum and you have the same idiots going on about how Rolex's will drop 50% and they'll buy two.
Its interesting how watches parallel cars. I got my first GMT in the 90's when Ferraris were relatively rare too. A Daytona in those days was similar money and I bought the GMT because the Daytona had no date (which still annoys me even though I wear one daily now).
Nowadays there are lots more Ferraris and lots more Rolexes..and in both cases some of the owners who just want the brand have no clue (not directed to anyone here but thinking of a friend who bought a Daytona and had no idea how the chronos work and didn't know the pushers unscrew!).
Now let's see if I can score a Patek Nautilus for sensible money... there do seem to be a few more watches on the market over recent weeks too.
The point does correlate well to Ferrari’s too. I would buy most modern Ferrari’s apart from the 488 because I don’t like it personally but it also seems to be the one most non car people buy.
Edited by Drl22 on Monday 30th March 08:52
Corporate debt is key here and the reason this shock won't just disappear once the virus is contained. The graph below doesn't even include 2019 when it got even worse.
Given a more 'normal' shock to the system companies might have had a chance to deleverage gradually but the virus has cut company earnings off at the knees.
This is just one indicator that was hiding in plain sight if people had looked. Inverted yield curve is another massive warning sign (it inverted last year). No one should be shocked at what's playing out here.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mayrarodriguezvallada...
Given a more 'normal' shock to the system companies might have had a chance to deleverage gradually but the virus has cut company earnings off at the knees.
This is just one indicator that was hiding in plain sight if people had looked. Inverted yield curve is another massive warning sign (it inverted last year). No one should be shocked at what's playing out here.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mayrarodriguezvallada...
Andyoz said:
This is just one indicator that was hiding in plain sight if people had looked. Inverted yield curve is another massive warning sign (it inverted last year). No one should be shocked at what's playing out here.
The yield curve very temporarily inverted. It was not sustained. You [ireally[/i] think the chaos going on the the market is because of corporate debt/yield curve inversion for a week 6 months ago rather than due to the global shutdown caused by covid19? The number of financial know it all wizards coming out of the woodwork on PH is seriously impressive I have to say.
Loan defaults on car PCPs threaten £110bn finance sector
The stability of the £110 billion motor finance sector is being called into question as the economic downturn takes its toll on the personal finances of millions who have borrowed to buy their car. The extent of buying on the never-never through financial products such as personal contract purchase plans (PCPs) has been described as a ticking time bomb and has already come under scrutiny by the Bank of England and the Financial Conduct Authority. With vast numbers being laid off or furloughed on lower pay, motor finance lenders are scrabbling to offer payment holidays or contract extensions. The motor trade fears that among the 7 million who have borrowed to acquire a car in the past three years, many will have to return the keys.
[thetimes.co.uk - 30.3.20.]
The stability of the £110 billion motor finance sector is being called into question as the economic downturn takes its toll on the personal finances of millions who have borrowed to buy their car. The extent of buying on the never-never through financial products such as personal contract purchase plans (PCPs) has been described as a ticking time bomb and has already come under scrutiny by the Bank of England and the Financial Conduct Authority. With vast numbers being laid off or furloughed on lower pay, motor finance lenders are scrabbling to offer payment holidays or contract extensions. The motor trade fears that among the 7 million who have borrowed to acquire a car in the past three years, many will have to return the keys.
[thetimes.co.uk - 30.3.20.]
cgt2 said:
There will always be people with liquidity who only buy when they can more than cover any loss and others who finance themselves way over their means and unfortunately come unstuck. I know a few of the latter including a guy who works for me and it's worrying the extent some people will go to project an image in this social media age we live in.
This right here sums most of it up for myself , everyone wants to be shown as affluent no matter what the cost method or how they project it , if you can buy one on a growing market without the panic then you would do so , only the reckless will think I’ll look loaded in this , and yet have little thought to what might be , if you don’t have a rainy day fund to start with what on earth are you buying a super car for ?isaldiri said:
Andyoz said:
This is just one indicator that was hiding in plain sight if people had looked. Inverted yield curve is another massive warning sign (it inverted last year). No one should be shocked at what's playing out here.
The yield curve very temporarily inverted. It was not sustained. You [ireally[/i] think the chaos going on the the market is because of corporate debt/yield curve inversion for a week 6 months ago rather than due to the global shutdown caused by covid19? The number of financial know it all wizards coming out of the woodwork on PH is seriously impressive I have to say.
The system was waiting for a pin to prick it.
Hopefully all the experts called this early and shorted the markets.
Andyoz said:
My post related specifically to corporate debt. Inverted yield curve was yet another indicator I said. Shoring up corporate debt is a very real part of the panilc now.
The system was waiting for a pin to prick it.
Hopefully all the experts called this early and shorted the markets.
And according to your graph the financial system should have fallen over shortly after 2015. If people were short risk assets in 2016 they would have been stopped out long ago. Heck if one went short at your so called indicator last year you would have lost a heap and been forced to cut your position a few weeks/months later. The system was waiting for a pin to prick it.
Hopefully all the experts called this early and shorted the markets.
If you're bearish for years at some point you will be right - that's why a lot of people are always going on about that kind of thing as they conveniently ignore the fact they would have been royally buggered following their own advice.
isaldiri said:
Andyoz said:
My post related specifically to corporate debt. Inverted yield curve was yet another indicator I said. Shoring up corporate debt is a very real part of the panilc now.
The system was waiting for a pin to prick it.
Hopefully all the experts called this early and shorted the markets.
And according to your graph the financial system should have fallen over shortly after 2015. If people were short risk assets in 2016 they would have been stopped out long ago. Heck if one went short at your so called indicator last year you would have lost a heap and been forced to cut your position a few weeks/months later. The system was waiting for a pin to prick it.
Hopefully all the experts called this early and shorted the markets.
If you're bearish for years at some point you will be right - that's why a lot of people are always going on about that kind of thing as they conveniently ignore the fact they would have been royally buggered following their own advice.
I started deleveraging my life after that and pretty much had completed that this year (that included selling a business so was putting alot on the line)
I'm no expert, but will act on my own research in the future.
Drl22 said:
I have to agree, I wouldn’t buy a Daytona now as unfortunately it is the “I know nothing about watches but want an expensive one watch”. It sounds like you have a classic version though which is different to those who know.
The point does correlate well to Ferrari’s too. I would buy most modern Ferrari’s apart from the 488 because I don’t like it personally but it also seems to be the one most non car people buy.
OT: I've got a 1999 Zenith Daytona which I wear daily. I also have a recent 116500 which I didn't wait that long for (3 months) but then my dealer who I have a relationship with knew I wanted one. The point does correlate well to Ferrari’s too. I would buy most modern Ferrari’s apart from the 488 because I don’t like it personally but it also seems to be the one most non car people buy.
Edited by Drl22 on Monday 30th March 08:52
The newer one is totally impractical to wear daily because of the polished centre links (much more blingy) which scratch very easily, the Zenith has the old style bracelet which holds up to wear and tear far better.
Think a rugged 1980's 930 911 vs a modern one with lots of delicate exposed carbon fibre, another analogy! But I find myself drooling at Pateks more and more. They are very understated and classic so not as in your face but totally beautiful...
Edited by cgt2 on Monday 30th March 11:41
cgt2 said:
Drl22 said:
I have to agree, I wouldn’t buy a Daytona now as unfortunately it is the “I know nothing about watches but want an expensive one watch”. It sounds like you have a classic version though which is different to those who know.
The point does correlate well to Ferrari’s too. I would buy most modern Ferrari’s apart from the 488 because I don’t like it personally but it also seems to be the one most non car people buy.
OT: I've got a 1999 Zenith Daytona which I wear daily. I also have a recent 116500 which I didn't wait that long for (3 months) but then my dealer who I have a relationship with knew I wanted one. The point does correlate well to Ferrari’s too. I would buy most modern Ferrari’s apart from the 488 because I don’t like it personally but it also seems to be the one most non car people buy.
Edited by Drl22 on Monday 30th March 08:52
The newer one is totally impractical to wear daily because of the polished centre links (much more blingy) which scratch very easily, the Zenith has the old style bracelet which holds up to wear and tear far better.
Think a rugged 1980's 930 911 vs a modern one with lots of delicate exposed carbon fibre, another analogy! But I find myself drooling at Pateks more and more. They are very understated and classic so not as in your face but totally beautiful...
Edited by cgt2 on Monday 30th March 11:41
I love the Pateks too but they are still strong money. I went for a Royal Oak recently rather than the Daytona which I thought I had wanted for a long time but it did feel blingy when I tried it on. The RO is unfortunately an easy one to scratch and can never really be considered a daily.
Earlier on this thread I posted that it was highly likely that dealers had already decided nobody is buying right now, so why adjust prices downwards? Kind of proving my point is that pre CV19 lockdown I was looking for a nearly new G Wagon to replace my Range Rover. 5 days ago I emailed a high end supercar dealer in London about one they have advertised on PH. Nothing, no reply, no out of office reply. They literally just closed shop and aren’t even monitoring emails? It makes zero sense to me...
Roof down said:
Spot on, to be driving around in a super car especially a red Ferrari convertible would be obscene.
I would never be comfortable when I know so many people cannot even afford to look after their families.
It would simply enrage most people and rightly so.
Interesting point. I would never be comfortable when I know so many people cannot even afford to look after their families.
It would simply enrage most people and rightly so.
I felt bad getting out of my car outside Tesco’s last week and there was a homeless chap sat outside , I have a rangey nothing super car ish but cant see the market fairing well during all of this. The wealthy will be holding onto their cash and those brave enough to dip their toe will be in the minority imho.
Bunty Killa said:
Hahaha they'll still be thinking about it even when it's free
Ha ha I got a plethora of emails from people on here when I offered a few bits of Rolex advice, should I buy this , what about that, all the waffle I’ve heard a tonne of times. My mate says he can get a .....yada yada....I don’t even need to check if anyone bought anything I already know the answer . SVJBalboni said:
Plenty of tire kickers out there who will never buy a supercar even if they drop 90%. Go on the Rolex forum and you have the same idiots going on about how Rolex's will drop 50% and they'll buy two.
Fckitdriveon said:
Roof down said:
Spot on, to be driving around in a super car especially a red Ferrari convertible would be obscene.
I would never be comfortable when I know so many people cannot even afford to look after their families.
It would simply enrage most people and rightly so.
Interesting point. I would never be comfortable when I know so many people cannot even afford to look after their families.
It would simply enrage most people and rightly so.
I felt bad getting out of my car outside Tesco’s last week and there was a homeless chap sat outside , I have a rangey nothing super car ish but cant see the market fairing well during all of this. The wealthy will be holding onto their cash and those brave enough to dip their toe will be in the minority imho.
ThePackMan said:
Earlier on this thread I posted that it was highly likely that dealers had already decided nobody is buying right now, so why adjust prices downwards? Kind of proving my point is that pre CV19 lockdown I was looking for a nearly new G Wagon to replace my Range Rover. 5 days ago I emailed a high end supercar dealer in London about one they have advertised on PH. Nothing, no reply, no out of office reply. They literally just closed shop and aren’t even monitoring emails? It makes zero sense to me...
Perhaps they are going out of business ?I just sold one of my G's privately. Was inundated with viewing requests and sold it 8 days after listing.
Sold for 6% under listed price.
That's quite poignant, several industries chipping in where they can how they can. It's very heartening. Yes they have logoed golf shirts on which is no accident but I think it's just pride at helping. Unlike Mike Ashley or that bizarre pub baron.
That country gets hammered and hammered again and again but their compassion is undefeatable.
That country gets hammered and hammered again and again but their compassion is undefeatable.
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