Will Corona effect the Supercar Market

[cgt2]

The watch market also seems to have a significant availability of watches that only a couple of months ago were making over list or unavailable, mirroring the car market.

Rolex and Patek have also shelved their new launches meaning the 2019 ranges will run on a two year cycle.

[andy97]

ghost83 said:

We’ve been told by our local mp they expect it to be June 1st

That’s a guess as good or bad as anyone’s, I suppose, but we have been told several times that govt is acting on the best scientific advice, and that is being based on statistical analysis of infection and death rates. No one know how that will pan out yet, but those rates will have to be very low to have a total relaxation of the current rules, or else rates may spike again as soon as social interaction returns.

[andy97]

davek_964 said:

And as for self employed and tax rates, if you mean IR35 I think that was planned a long time before Covid-19.
.

It was, and has actually been postponed a year due to Covid-19. Can’t see it being retracted at all, in fact I suspect all tax regimes will be tightened up and most of us are going to have to pay more tax. We have to pay for all this support some how. We are all “socialist” now!!!!!

[ghost83]

davek_964 said:

I very much doubt lockdown will last 3 months - the economy simply can't afford it. And as for self employed and tax rates, if you mean IR35 I think that was planned a long time before Covid-19.

I agree with some of the other posts - businesses etc. will reopen by the start of May at the latest.

I do agree that expensive frivolous toys - cars and other things - are going to get hit hard. Even people who keep their jobs in the short term must realise that the effect of all this is significant. I for one would like a period of time to be sure my job / company is secure before I went on any big spending sprees.

Also as I’m not self employed I don’t know what IR35 is, I’m going on what the chancellor said on Tv when he was dishing out this 80%

[zedmtrappe]

davek_964 said:

I for one would like a period of time to be sure my job / company is secure before I went on any big spending sprees.

And the impact of that cannot be underestimated either.

Same deal here - my business is basically screwed at the moment but I am extremely fortunate that my wife is able to work from home with a decent income and so ( at the moment) we are not too badly off, all things considered.

But that being the case, there is still absolutely no way in hell I am spending any money whatsoever on anything other than bare essentials for the foreseeable future.

Expensive holidays - f*ck that.
Anything resembling a toy - f*ck that.
There was talk of replacing our garden furniture this year - f*ck that!

The paradox is my business ( and many, many other I guess) relies on the exact opposite consumer mindset :-(

[markst]

I wonder where distressed sellers will try and off load their toys.....on a pcp do they have the option to just return them at the end of the term , or do they take the dismal trade offers..

[21ATS]

markst said:

I wonder where distressed sellers will try and off load their toys.....on a pcp do they have the option to just return them at the end of the term , or do they take the dismal trade offers..

It depends on the terms of their agreement and exactly what type of agreement they took out originally.

Voluntary termination explained here:- https://www.thecarexpert.co.uk/car-finance-volunta...

It's at this point that a number of people driving very expensive cars discover they have neither a PCP or HP agreement and can't simply hand the keys back, they have to sell, or buy out the agreement.

I think (don't quote me on this) many of the big number agreements are "Lease Purchase" which is a whole different kettle of fish. I'm pretty sure this is what I was quoted by Ferrari Financial services when I was looking to buy something two years ago.

[Ferruccio]

zedmtrappe said:

davek_964 said:

Expensive holidays - f*ck that.

When it becomes an option again, I suspect that’ll be pretty high up the list for anyone with the money?

[Drl22]

Ferruccio said:

zedmtrappe said:

davek_964 said:

Expensive holidays - f*ck that.

When it becomes an option again, I suspect that’ll be pretty high up the list for anyone with the money?

Even when foreign travel becomes an option I don’t think I’ll be one of the first jumping on a plane. I’m very fortunate and have a high profit low overheads based business but I’d be very cautious about taking my family anywhere outside the UK until this has well and truly blown over.

[cseven]

I think the government is simply going to follow our EU partners in this, politically that's a pretty safe bet. Also what is everyones definition of lockdown. Life as it was is over a year away in my opinion however small retail and schools could start to go back in mid May. Pubs, nightclubs etc could be next year at this rate, especially when it spikes again as we go into winter.

History says pandemics last approx 2 years and I think this will be no different. All the early talk of a vaccine in a month has somewhat disappeared, I'm guessing its proving bloody difficult starting from scratch.

[ghost83]

cseven said:

I think the government is simply going to follow our EU partners in this, politically that's a pretty safe bet. Also what is everyones definition of lockdown. Life as it was is over a year away in my opinion however small retail and schools could start to go back in mid May. Pubs, nightclubs etc could be next year at this rate, especially when it spikes again as we go into winter.

History says pandemics last approx 2 years and I think this will be no different. All the early talk of a vaccine in a month has somewhat disappeared, I'm guessing its proving bloody difficult starting from scratch.

I think from Monday we need to go to a harder lockdown where non essential workers aren’t at work and movement is restricted even further, too many people are taking the mick going out

[isaldiri]

ghost83 said:

I think from Monday we need to go to a harder lockdown where non essential workers aren’t at work and movement is restricted even further, too many people are taking the mick going out

Apart from being seen to be doing more because greater numbers are dying, further lockdown would imo be stupid and a bit of an own goal by the govt. There are some people flouting the guidance on lockdown but generally the amount of social interaction and therefore population transmission has to have crashed relative to pre lockdown. Less than full compliance is accounted for in transmission modelling - further restrictions would be harder to have people abide by them and therefore unproductive and completely pointless

[Drl22]

isaldiri said:

ghost83 said:

I think from Monday we need to go to a harder lockdown where non essential workers aren’t at work and movement is restricted even further, too many people are taking the mick going out

Apart from being seen to be doing more because greater numbers are dying, further lockdown would imo be stupid and a bit of an own goal by the govt. There are some people flouting the guidance on lockdown but generally the amount of social interaction and therefore population transmission has to have crashed relative to pre lockdown. Less than full compliance is accounted for in transmission modelling - further restrictions would be harder to have people abide by them and therefore unproductive and completely pointless

+1 The economy can’t even take this lock down for long let alone a stricter one.

[Cheib]

cseven said:

I think the government is simply going to follow our EU partners in this, politically that's a pretty safe bet. Also what is everyones definition of lockdown. Life as it was is over a year away in my opinion however small retail and schools could start to go back in mid May. Pubs, nightclubs etc could be next year at this rate, especially when it spikes again as we go into winter.

History says pandemics last approx 2 years and I think this will be no different. All the early talk of a vaccine in a month has somewhat disappeared, I'm guessing its proving bloody difficult starting from scratch.

My base case is for kids going back to school in September....I think the idea of sending them back to school for maybe a month before they break up for summer again is unlikely. Maybe they will do it in an effort to get the economy going again but I suspect not.

Totally agree on the longer timeframe though I listed to an interview with the Head of Gavi https://www.gavi.org/ a couple of days ago....whose job it is to co-ordinate the supply and development of Vaccine’s. His base case was 18 months but he said whilst there is a possibility it could be shorter it could also be longer. As an example Ebola took 5 years to develop and a normal vaccine 15 years....clearly these are exceptional times so processes run in parallel etc.

Bill Gates has been quoted as saying he’s willing to spend billions of dollars on developing parallel production process for seven different vaccines in the knowledge that only one would be needed. “It’s worth wasting billions to save trillions”.

Oh and the other thing the bloke from Gavi said was that there is no guarantee that just because you have had Covid 19 that this will give you permanent immunity. Other Covid’s which cause some of the the common colds we get do not all have that.

Bit long winded for a car thread but I think it’s relevant !

[cseven]

further lockdown measures would equate to tiny marginal gains initially and then unless you were going to strictly enforce them people would quickly tire and refuse to comply so would be self defeating. At the moment the vast majority do comply and there is a social weight of opinion to do so, this would quickly change and create state vs people climate....not good.

The exception is dense cities and Paris could be an example however we don't have the resources to enforce compared to France in my opinion so what's the point.

[davek_964]

No way stuff like pubs / clubs will be closed until next year! No chance.

Tighter lockdown is unlikely, and a very fine balancing act. People can applaud the NHS - and Boris if you like - lock themselves in their houses and wring their hands when they see their neighbours flout the rules.

But summer is coming, and human nature is such that the novelty of this will wear off very quickly. See how much of the general public are happy with lockdown when they haven't seen their family for a month plus, more and more businesses collapse, more and more people can't pay their bills etc etc etc
The government simply cannot keep this situation going for very long.

[ghost83]

We are only 15 days into this lockdown

And another 6 days till the review

I honestly think he will get tougher on restrictions after Easter Monday and that will then be reviewed on 4th may! If the tougher restrictions work then another 3 week takes us till 25th may which I can see them saying restriction would be lifted 1st June!

Over 800 deaths today, also coming back to cars 6159 ppl have died whilst some won’t have cars a lot of them will and same for those many thousands who are going to be out of work

So cars will naturally not be a luxury (cheap or expensive)

[isaldiri]

ghost83 said:

We are only 15 days into this lockdown

And another 6 days till the review

I honestly think he will get tougher on restrictions after Easter Monday and that will then be reviewed on 4th may! If the tougher restrictions work then another 3 week takes us till 25th may which I can see them saying restriction would be lifted 1st June!

We aren't even really seeing the results of the first lockdown yet..... it would be as I said very unproductive to actually go for even tougher restrictions and would make a joke of the 'driven by science' spiel being thrown around widely by the politicians.

[ghost83]

isaldiri said:

We aren't even really seeing the results of the first lockdown yet..... it would be as I said very unproductive to actually go for even tougher restrictions and would make a joke of the 'driven by science' spiel being thrown around widely by the politicians.

I agree we aren’t BUT ppl rly aren’t listening to the advice given already, ppl are still driving to parks for walks going to the beach etc etc! It’s getting reported in the paper about ppl flouting the lockdown so with him saying he would review it every 3 week and nobody listening if he’s out of hospital I can see him saying we are doing measures at the right time and now we need to push down further and stop non essential workers going to work! It’s got to happen as then in another 3 week at the next review we will start to see a difference

[Drl22]

ghost83 said:

isaldiri said:

We aren't even really seeing the results of the first lockdown yet..... it would be as I said very unproductive to actually go for even tougher restrictions and would make a joke of the 'driven by science' spiel being thrown around widely by the politicians.

I agree we aren’t BUT ppl rly aren’t listening to the advice given already, ppl are still driving to parks for walks going to the beach etc etc! It’s getting reported in the paper about ppl flouting the lockdown so with him saying he would review it every 3 week and nobody listening if he’s out of hospital I can see him saying we are doing measures at the right time and now we need to push down further and stop non essential workers going to work! It’s got to happen as then in another 3 week at the next review we will start to see a difference

I think you’ve been reading too much daily mail.