Lag Time for Supercar Prices to adjust to Market Conditions

[Soleith]

As I posted on the main corona/supercar thread, interesting interview with Tom Hartley Sr with this little nugget:

“I’ve been through several recessions,” he notes, “so I know what to expect. I know I’m going to lose a seven-figure sum on this stock, but I’m well placed to deal with it.”

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/features/britai...

Seems a matter of when not if. My guess is as restrictions start to get lifted and the market dries up somewhat so I'd guess probably once cars start moving in a normal fashion again + 2 months or so for private sellers to realise they aren't getting their pre-corona price and drop their pants.

[GroundZero]

Yes that is the general impression you hear when those in "the game" are letting loose with the truth on the matter.

The market at the moment is in total limbo. So there is no point in reducing prices when there is nobody even viewing your stock.
Its only when as you say the lockdown is lifted and businesses can reopen when the reality of what the post-lockdown market will be.

I notice some comments coming from the housing market that sellers are said to be in ignorant refusal to move on asking prices when the lockdown ends, but of course they are in a similar position to others as it makes no sense to be tempting buyers with reductions when there are no buyers around at the moment.

[Drl22]

GroundZero said:

Yes that is the general impression you hear when those in "the game" are letting loose with the truth on the matter.

The market at the moment is in total limbo. So there is no point in reducing prices when there is nobody even viewing your stock.
Its only when as you say the lockdown is lifted and businesses can reopen when the reality of what the post-lockdown market will be.

I notice some comments coming from the housing market that sellers are said to be in ignorant refusal to move on asking prices when the lockdown ends, but of course they are in a similar position to others as it makes no sense to be tempting buyers with reductions when there are no buyers around at the moment.

Load of rubbish you’ve just spouted there. I am sure plenty of car stock is being viewed and from what I read on here and if collecting cars is something to go by it would be selling if the prices were moving. Contactless delivery is now very much a thing.

Same for the housing market, I have two houses for sale out Esate agent has been inundated with requests to view once the crisis is over. People are sitting in their houses and realising they don’t like them. Why would I lower the price when the demand is still there?

There will always be people who HAVE to sell but most people will tell a bargain hunter with silly offers where to go be it cars or houses.

[GroundZero]

Drl22 said:

Load of rubbish you’ve just spouted there. I am sure plenty of car stock is being viewed and from what I read on here and if collecting cars is something to go by it would be selling if the prices were moving. Contactless delivery is now very much a thing.

Same for the housing market, I have two houses for sale out Esate agent has been inundated with requests to view once the crisis is over. People are sitting in their houses and realising they don’t like them. Why would I lower the price when the demand is still there?

There will always be people who HAVE to sell but most people will tell a bargain hunter with silly offers where to go be it cars or houses.

I could equally say your post is spouted rubbish, but I guess your experience and view of the market is different to those that I've talked to and read on various news feeds.

Time will tell in the months/years following the lifting of lockdown.

[cayman-black]

Drl22 said:

Load of rubbish you’ve just spouted there. I am sure plenty of car stock is being viewed and from what I read on here and if collecting cars is something to go by it would be selling if the prices were moving. Contactless delivery is now very much a thing.

Same for the housing market, I have two houses for sale out Esate agent has been inundated with requests to view once the crisis is over. People are sitting in their houses and realising they don’t like them. Why would I lower the price when the demand is still there?

There will always be people who HAVE to sell but most people will tell a bargain hunter with silly offers where to go be it cars or houses.

Best get used to it then because the silly offers are all that you will get and will soon become the market price .

[Soleith]

cayman-black said:

Drl22 said:

Load of rubbish you’ve just spouted there. I am sure plenty of car stock is being viewed and from what I read on here and if collecting cars is something to go by it would be selling if the prices were moving. Contactless delivery is now very much a thing.

Same for the housing market, I have two houses for sale out Esate agent has been inundated with requests to view once the crisis is over. People are sitting in their houses and realising they don’t like them. Why would I lower the price when the demand is still there?

There will always be people who HAVE to sell but most people will tell a bargain hunter with silly offers where to go be it cars or houses.

Best get used to it then because the silly offers are all that you will get and will soon become the market price .

Yup, when Tom Hartley is saying he's going to lose millions on current stock it seems unlikely prices will stay at pre-crisis levels. What incentive does he have for talking down the value of his own showroom??

[Drl22]

Soleith said:

cayman-black said:

Drl22 said:

Load of rubbish you’ve just spouted there. I am sure plenty of car stock is being viewed and from what I read on here and if collecting cars is something to go by it would be selling if the prices were moving. Contactless delivery is now very much a thing.

Same for the housing market, I have two houses for sale out Esate agent has been inundated with requests to view once the crisis is over. People are sitting in their houses and realising they don’t like them. Why would I lower the price when the demand is still there?

There will always be people who HAVE to sell but most people will tell a bargain hunter with silly offers where to go be it cars or houses.

Best get used to it then because the silly offers are all that you will get and will soon become the market price .

Yup, when Tom Hartley is saying he's going to lose millions on current stock it seems unlikely prices will stay at pre-crisis levels. What incentive does he have for talking down the value of his own showroom??

I think he might be a bit cleverer than you give him credit for. What’s his incentive? He is effectively advertising a big sale but without actually having to lower his sticker price. If I was in his situation I would say the same thing.

If you are going to buy a car and you see what someone like Tony Gravelwood is saying “no discounts markets fine etc” and you see what Hartley is saying which showroom are you likely to go and visit? Bums in seats sell cars is what a dealer I have used says and if Hartley gets the people up there he will sell more cars. He doesn’t have to give you a stupidly large discount perhaps just a sensible one. Sure some people will walk away expecting more but some won’t and he will sell more cars.

Edited by Drl22 on Monday 27th April 10:03

[Soleith]

Drl22 said:

Soleith said:

cayman-black said:

Drl22 said:

Load of rubbish you’ve just spouted there. I am sure plenty of car stock is being viewed and from what I read on here and if collecting cars is something to go by it would be selling if the prices were moving. Contactless delivery is now very much a thing.

Same for the housing market, I have two houses for sale out Esate agent has been inundated with requests to view once the crisis is over. People are sitting in their houses and realising they don’t like them. Why would I lower the price when the demand is still there?

There will always be people who HAVE to sell but most people will tell a bargain hunter with silly offers where to go be it cars or houses.

Best get used to it then because the silly offers are all that you will get and will soon become the market price .

Yup, when Tom Hartley is saying he's going to lose millions on current stock it seems unlikely prices will stay at pre-crisis levels. What incentive does he have for talking down the value of his own showroom??

I think he might be a bit cleverer than you give him credit for. What’s his incentive? He is effectively advertising a big sale but without actually having to lower his sticker price. If I was in his situation I would say the same thing.

If you are going to buy a car and you see what someone like Tony Gravelwood is saying “no discounts markets fine etc” and you see what Hartley is saying which showroom are you likely to go and visit? Bums in seats sell cars is what a dealer I have used says and if Hartley gets the people up there he will sell more cars. He doesn’t have to give you a stupidly large discount perhaps just a sensible one. Sure some people will walk away expecting more but some won’t and he will sell more cars.

Edited by Drl22 on Monday 27th April 10:03

Yeah, so basically what we've all been saying, that the prices will fall. XD

[haworthlloyd]

Still 4 months or so away
Stock market been on the up past few weeks
Real assets normally lag by around 6 months

[Soleith]

haworthlloyd said:

Still 4 months or so away
Stock market been on the up past few weeks
Real assets normally lag by around 6 months

Yeah, but it's been down again the last few days. I genuinely think we've not seen the bottom yet, we're probably in a slow grind to get economies moving again over the course of q2/q3 and maybe we'll start to see something resembling normal economic activity in q4 but it'll still be well down on pre-covid levels imo.

[ghost83]

Soleith said:

Yeah, but it's been down again the last few days. I genuinely think we've not seen the bottom yet, we're probably in a slow grind to get economies moving again over the course of q2/q3 and maybe we'll start to see something resembling normal economic activity in q4 but it'll still be well down on pre-covid levels imo.

Well look at the uncertainty now and the country has only been on lockdown since March 23rd (39days) we have at least all of may so another 30 days before some stuff reopens around June 1st, I can’t see restaurants and pubs and other hospitality opening till July/August time, so the country is going to be very slow to fully re start! So we could be anywhere from 30 days to 90 days imagine what that’s going to do to businesses!

I think buying cars is on the last of 98% of the populations minds

[MKA29]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

This is exactly it. Panic sells are already driving down the market. If and when dealers have to get rid of the forecourt that's when the real damage will be done

[Cheib]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Is that right ? Surely a dealer can open its doors with a skeleton staff initially and keep some staff on furlough ? Although in an industry where base salaries are not high and there’s a big commission element people will want to get working again...and certainly sales staff won’t want to be left on furlough if colleagues are back earning commission.

[Ferruccio]

Cheib said:

Is that right ? Surely a dealer can open its doors with a skeleton staff initially and keep some staff on furlough ? Although in an industry where base salaries are not high and there’s a big commission element people will want to get working again...and certainly sales staff won’t want to be left on furlough if colleagues are back earning commission.

How long will the furlough scheme last?
How long will they be protected from repossession by their landlord if they can’t pay the rent?
How long until the bank puts in a winding up order if they can’t meet payments?
More people in dealerships employed in service than sales; will they be able to get parts?
It seems to me that service will be their potential lifeline.

[Durzel]

You can rotate staff on furlough.

There is an assumption that the furlough scheme will end at the end of June. If lockdown isn’t lifted in a meaningful way then the reality is that it will need to be extended to protect businesses, otherwise it’s just forestalling loads of redundancies (which will almost certainly happen in some sectors - eg. pubs, restaurants, other entertainment sectors that can’t effectively impose social distancing)

I don’t see what would stop dealers keeping a skeleton staff in the showroom with the rest on furlough. The main problem is that the big, fancy glass fronted showrooms will be costing money that would normally have been offset by sales. Agile, “disruptive” brands like Tesla who basically deliver out of regular offices and shops etc will, I suspect, fare better.

Edited by Durzel on Saturday 2nd May 11:55

[Durzel]

I agree with a lot of what you’ve written there.

I’m more optimistic about a vaccine, personally. The reason there hasn’t been vaccines for coronaviruses generally is that there is no point spending time and money developing them for common colds, as the symptoms are mild and non-life threatening, and don’t endure for very long. Influenza is an exception due to its potency, and as I understand it every year there are a selection of vaccine candidates created to try and mitigate them.

Realistically we’re going to have to do social distancing until this vaccine is generally available, which seems like it’ll be 12 months off. Even if some businesses tried to get started again they might struggle for customers if they are scared to go there. A lot of people, the vast majority I think, are rightfully scared of catching this virus regardless of what the government says.

I don’t think the normal we were used to at the start of the year is coming back any time soon though, and may never come back if this thing mutates.

[Ferruccio]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Many firms already have their list of keepers and redundant ready.
Seems to me inevitable that the scheme will be extended or it’ll be absolute carnage in a number of sectors.

[jakesmith]

Durzel said:

I agree with a lot of what you’ve written there.

I’m more optimistic about a vaccine, personally. The reason there hasn’t been vaccines for coronaviruses generally is that there is no point spending time and money developing them for common colds, as the symptoms are mild and non-life threatening, and don’t endure for very long. Influenza is an exception due to its potency, and as I understand it every year there are a selection of vaccine candidates created to try and mitigate them.

Realistically we’re going to have to do social distancing until this vaccine is generally available, which seems like it’ll be 12 months off. Even if some businesses tried to get started again they might struggle for customers if they are scared to go there. A lot of people, the vast majority I think, are rightfully scared of catching this virus regardless of what the government says.

I don’t think the normal we were used to at the start of the year is coming back any time soon though, and may never come back if this thing mutates.

People in the non vulnerable categories will take their chances, catch it and recover rather than never socialise in a pub or go to a restaurant again IMO

[Calculator]

Agreed, people will eventually take their chances with the virus rather than the alternative existence.

[Venturist]

jakesmith said:

People in the non vulnerable categories will take their chances, catch it and recover rather than never socialise in a pub or go to a restaurant again IMO

I’d agree. You already see people rapidly losing enthusiasm for the distancing and if the pubs were open, they would be getting custom I’m sure.