Lag Time for Supercar Prices to adjust to Market Conditions

Lag Time for Supercar Prices to adjust to Market Conditions

Author
Discussion

Cheib

19,466 posts

134 months

Sunday 3rd May
quotequote all
Ferruccio said:
Cheib said:
That’s all true...but what we don’t know is how many people would have died if we’d carried on regardless....I think the answer could have been unpalatable..
No one was suggesting carrying on regardless. (That would be a good film title!?)
All of the decisions are about finding the optimal balance.
How come it is now generally agreed that the peak of CV deaths in the U.K. so far was on 8th April?
Not long after lockdown on 23rd March and when the average death occurs on day 20 or 21 of having it.
I think the UK was in a situation where they couldn’t do less than they did....especially in London. Slowing the infection rate from 3 to 2 wouldn’t have been enough. It needed to get below 1 and quickly. The compounding of a growth rate of 2 from where we were would have seen the NHS swamped.

Hopefully now that can find the right balance...when we look back there were some daft things going on. My son played in a Rugby 7’s festival against 10 other schools from all over the South East a week before they shut the schools, How daft was that !

Andyoz

1,414 posts

13 months

Sunday 3rd May
quotequote all
Taffy66 said:
Andyoz said:
IMO it's going to be hard for any incumbent political party to unravel this whole furlough arrangement. Alot of people have got a taste of what retirement feels like and many of them like it!

The real work will come when it's time to reverse all these policies that needed to be rushed out.
I know of local businesses who were already in severe financial stress before Covid 19 who have exploited the situation to their benefit..Couple in a 12 month business rate holiday, furlough staff, £25k Covid 19 business loan, mortgage deferrals etc etc, with reduced everyday costs and they're better off..
The businesses which are suffering are the ones who weren't in trouble before and now losing money every day the business is shut..
What happens if those local business that were already in trouble go into liquidation 12 months down the line (instead of now). Who picks up the tab...eventually banks and Government will try to recoup it from solvent individuals and businesses in the form of fees/taxes

It just feels like one big economic experiment at the moment with second, third, etc order effects that won't be known for a while.


Edited by Andyoz on Monday 4th May 00:38

the-photographer

1,896 posts

135 months

Monday 4th May
quotequote all
isaldiri said:
IMI A said:
You mean a fault in the test?

50 patients in S.Korea according to their head. Could be erroneous data hence my comment re Chinese
As I said, those were now stated to be false positives or it's detecting old viras fragments. There is no evidence of reinfection post recovery so far.
WHO stated false positives comes from the natural healing process of the lungs, old dead fragments of virus being detected in testing.

Right now and I mean right now, don't worry about.

the-photographer

1,896 posts

135 months

Monday 4th May
quotequote all
Cheib said:
Ferruccio said:
Cheib said:
That’s all true...but what we don’t know is how many people would have died if we’d carried on regardless....I think the answer could have been unpalatable..
No one was suggesting carrying on regardless. (That would be a good film title!?)
All of the decisions are about finding the optimal balance.
How come it is now generally agreed that the peak of CV deaths in the U.K. so far was on 8th April?
Not long after lockdown on 23rd March and when the average death occurs on day 20 or 21 of having it.
I think the UK was in a situation where they couldn’t do less than they did....especially in London. Slowing the infection rate from 3 to 2 wouldn’t have been enough. It needed to get below 1 and quickly. The compounding of a growth rate of 2 from where we were would have seen the NHS swamped.

Hopefully now that can find the right balance...when we look back there were some daft things going on. My son played in a Rugby 7’s festival against 10 other schools from all over the South East a week before they shut the schools, How daft was that !
They had a wobble with herd immunity, changed their minds and went with a safe strategy. Why? The government couldn't risk 100,000, 200,000, 500,000 deaths (choose any model) because they wouldn't be in government very long, hence the play it safe approach.

footsoldier

1,815 posts

151 months

Monday 4th May
quotequote all
We are at the very early days of this, and herd immunity is pretty much the only way out, unless the virus listens to Trump and disappears like magic.
Only question is whether that herd immunity comes from a vaccine or naturally as it spreads, or a combination of both.
Way too early to say who has it right or wrong, and hopefully there's not too much emotion/uninformed public opinion involved in what happens next.
Magically back on topic - supercar prices will adjust when everyone realises it's not done by summer, and the economic impact for many summers after that.

GroundZero

673 posts

13 months

Monday 4th May
quotequote all
footsoldier said:
We are at the very early days of this, and herd immunity is pretty much the only way out, ..
The way outs are the following :

-Herd immunity as you say
-Existing drugs being used to make the effects of the virus non-life threatening - something that is being investigated on a daily basis and could end up being the early 'saviour' from lockdown and social distancing, allowing a quicker "back to norm"
-A new vaccine - this one being the solution that will be coming in 2021 to allow a "back to norm" way of life.


The virus will still circulate within human populations for years and years, but with a vaccine or with existing drug combinations being able to treat it, it will just become "another flu", nothing much to worry about (hopefully - dependant on how it mutates over time).

But the real problem with this current virus is the lasting effects it has on the body. Blood clots, reduced lung capacity, affecting all ages, not just the elderly. There are then total unknowns of longer term effects, even in those that displayed no symptoms at all. Questions arising over whether the damage done within the body will likely lead to developing cancers etc.

Until the virus is well understood I don't think herd immunity is the "go to" solution. I for one will be doing my best to avoid catching it and I'm a fit healthy late 30's.

footsoldier

1,815 posts

151 months

Monday 4th May
quotequote all
I've been trying hard to not get involved in medical debates on forums, cause it's not simple, as you say. (and I definitely don't have all the answers).
Agree that treatment is a way to improve the outcomes on all fronts, but it's not a way out.
Right now, having looked at all the stats very closely, including the fake ones, and knowing my own health, I would take my chances with the virus, rather than a vaccine that is rushed through.

GroundZero

673 posts

13 months

Monday 4th May
quotequote all
Well I would say that if existing drugs are found to be effective in treatment to avoid the risk of death, then this is also a way to build up herd immunity as the body will have fought off the virus to much of an extent. The existing drugs would serve to have bolstered the body's survivability.
So it offers as much a "way out" as 'basic' herd immunity.

Regarding the vaccine, this "should" be guaranteed, which is why it will take months and run in to 2021 before it is approved for wider public use.
The LAST thing that a responsible government and institutions will want is for the cure to be worse than the virus itself. If the vaccine is 'bad' then there will be millions and millions of compensation claims if it has any severe negative impacts on short or longer term health.
Not to mention the worse case scenario if the vaccine causes premature death by unforeseen effects. This could be how humanity wipes itself off the planet! Forget WWIII - which incidentally is not all that far from reality in the near future given how China is playing the aggressive stance at the moment in the south china sea and also with its totally irresponsible cover up of the virus in its early days. The rest of the world is most definitely going to want to have its pound of flesh when the focus of the virus turns to economic recovery.

Just to mention that I'm in a similar boat to you, I've just got opinion to offer on the subject based up on what I've read.

FezSpider

717 posts

191 months

Monday 4th May
quotequote all
Although I was alive back I 1968, alas only 2 years old so I cant remember.
However can any one remember in 1968 when there was the hong kong flu pandemic which killed 80,000 people in the uk alone , and over a million world wide. How did we eventually over come this?
Any old....older guys remember?
Was it a vaccine or heard immunity? smile

Edited by FezSpider on Monday 4th May 17:27

johnnyreggae

2,511 posts

119 months

Monday 4th May
quotequote all
Vaccine- hope this isn't behind a paywall https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/02/britai...

BobM

735 posts

214 months

Tuesday 5th May
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GroundZero said:
Regarding the vaccine, this "should" be guaranteed.
Like the HIV vaccine?

BobM

735 posts

214 months

Tuesday 5th May
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the-photographer said:
I would be a little careful of asymptomatic cases, especially in the old. Over half had some kind of ground-glass opacities, something you would want to monitor!

https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/10.1148/ryct.2020200110
confused
I stand by what I said. 20% of the people on the ship who tested positive (i.e. almost certainly had the disease) had no symptoms. That's what asymptomatic means. Having opacities on a CT isn't a symptom ...

carspath

Original Poster:

730 posts

136 months

Sunday 14th June
quotequote all
OP here .

So 3 -4 months after Covid started it’s assault on the UK , we have some evidence of the time lag ( and the financial hit ) of this disaster on the UK classic supercar market , in the form of a Countach being auctioned by Collecting Cars .

The car in question is a Countach 5000 QV 88 1/2 ...... arguably the most coveted version other than the LP400.
The auctioneer’s description would suggest that this is a lovely ( excepting the ghastly red steering wheel and gear knob )low mileage example , and a couple of years ago , I would have thought that this would have been sold from a dealership in days , and at a cost of between £400k and £500k .

The current bid is stuck st £195k , with 2 days to go .
It will be interesting to see what it finally goes for .
Is there a way of telling from CC’s website if this car has reached its reserve ?

Edited by carspath on Sunday 14th June 14:35

Pvapour

8,981 posts

212 months

Sunday 14th June
quotequote all
If it were lhd i’d be pulling out the stops to get that.

Ferruccio

1,334 posts

78 months

Sunday 14th June
quotequote all
You can only judge an auction by the final bid.

Sometimes things just don’t sell at a particular auction on a particular day.

Tom Hartley recently sold a very low mileage Anniversary (generally the least valuable Countach) in a matter of hours with an asking price of £400k

cjcor

75 posts

196 months

Tuesday 16th June
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That car sold for £265k. A bargain of a lifetime!

Saweep

5,535 posts

145 months

Tuesday 16th June
quotequote all
cjcor said:
That car sold for £265k. A bargain of a lifetime!
They are famous last (and expensive) words! biggrin

carspath

Original Poster:

730 posts

136 months

Tuesday 16th June
quotequote all
£270k for that Countach is ridiculously cheap .
It would have commanded almost twice that price a couple of years ago .

A brutal reflection of the times.

And I think a more accurate gauge of the market than the pricing of current Lambo , Ferrari and McLaren supercars .

This is a bona fide , iconic supercar , not swayed by short term ‘’ latest and greatest ‘’ sentiment .
Production count was 1998 ..... although Lambo in those days had a very elastic counting system .

If it’s pricing is so badly hammered , God save the rest of the market .... especially the new supercar market .

To the buyer ( and let’s hope you are an enthusiast who has lusted for ages after this special car ) , congratulations, you’ll love it ...... one of 14 in RHD ( some of which sadly are apparently no longer in existence ) .
This is a very, very , very long term keeper .
ENJOY .

Edited by carspath on Tuesday 16th June 17:13

Stig

11,614 posts

243 months

Tuesday 16th June
quotequote all
carspath said:
£270k for that Countach is ridiculously cheap .
It would have commanded almost twice that price a couple of years ago .

A brutal reflection of the times.

And I think a more accurate gauge of the market than the pricing of current Lambo , Ferrari and McLaren supercar .

This is a bona fide , iconic supercar , not swayed by short term ‘’ latest and greatest ‘’ sentiment .

If it’s pricing is so badly hammered , God save the rest of the market .... especially the new supercar market .

To the buyer , congratulations, you’ll love it ...... one of 14 in RHD ( some of which sadly are apparently no longer in existence ) .
This is a very, very , very long term keeper .
ENJOY .
Hammer price was £269,500, so with 6% for CC is almost £285,670k, but still a 'relative' bargain in Countach terms.

cjcor

75 posts

196 months

Tuesday 16th June
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commission is limited to £6k. So, £271k.