Crystal ball question on the 2013 Vanquish

Crystal ball question on the 2013 Vanquish

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GingerMunky

1,162 posts

256 months

Saturday 27th May 2017
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I have been tracking Vanquish prices in Autotrader since July last year;

Jul 2016 9 cars under £130k (first time decent sub £120k appears)
Oct 2016 14 cars under £130k
Nov 2016 17 cars under £130k
Jan 2017 19 cars under £120k (too many at sub £130k, so lowered to £120k)
Mar 2017 21 cars under £120k (first decent sub £110k appears, four if them in fact)
May 2017 19 cars under £120k (first £105k appears)
Note: these are forecourt sticker prices.

I would estimate a lowering of the bottom end of the depreciation curve by £15-18k in the 12 months from Jul 2016 - Jun 17.

Perhaps by June 2018 we will see £90k cars, and June 2019 £70-75k cars, The 2019 price may seem low, but looking at the mileages of these cars I have recorded now, in two years time cars will on average have to replace the carbon ceramic discs (cost circa £10-12k) which will make buyers thin twice and sellers discount.

RobDown

3,803 posts

127 months

Saturday 27th May 2017
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The ceramic brakes issue is an interesting one (I know discussed on a thread elsewhere). Presumably, if you're not tracking the car, you could switch to normal, cheaper, steel?

GingerMunky

1,162 posts

256 months

Saturday 27th May 2017
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Supercarhypercar said:
Slarti650 said:
They're beautiful cars but not 'special' enough to appreciate
Hi, do you think the 2013 facelifted DB9 would be a better buy in terms of appreciation or same would it be the same?
Average price of DB Coupe for sale in Autotrader over the last three months by model year.

2006 £39,257.64
2007 £46,737.48
2008 £49,925.95
2009 £54,427.70
2010 £59,177.48
2011 £63,562.28
2012 £69,992.42
2013 £82,017.63
2014 £89,285.98
2015 £97,448.00
2016 £116,958.53

There is a larger drop around the model year change 2013, however all DB9 will depreciate. The figures would suggest a face lift 2013 car will be circa £66k in three years time.

Supercarhypercar

Original Poster:

79 posts

82 months

Saturday 27th May 2017
quotequote all
These figures and predictions are very helpful!
I take it the Virage would also follow the DB9 or would the low production numbers help the fall in depreciation?

GingerMunky

1,162 posts

256 months

Saturday 27th May 2017
quotequote all
Supercarhypercar said:
These figures and predictions are very helpful!
I take it the Virage would also follow the DB9 or would the low production numbers help the fall in depreciation?
I tracked the Virage prices for a short period last year and they pretty much sit under the DB9 prices kind of like a 'DB9 2012 facelift'. There is no premium at this time, and in terms of specification it is unlike to be IMHO.

Supercarhypercar

Original Poster:

79 posts

82 months

Saturday 27th May 2017
quotequote all
If I say I have a maximum budget of £135K to spend on a car, but equally happy to spend £70K aswell 😀. I am not too fussed about the rear seats (already got an s class for the family) but the car from the outside must look stunning, head turner and the car should make a great sound. Of course depreciation is a key factor, I don't mind losing a bit of money but hopefully would like my car to be an investment in 5 years time and appreciate (get my money back at the least). What would be the preferred choice of car?

RobDown

3,803 posts

127 months

Saturday 27th May 2017
quotequote all
Crystal ball gazing but I think you have 2 options:

1. Buy a car that is pretty much fully depreciated, i.e. Pick up a £35-40k db9. Beautiful, makes a great noise

2. Of the "newer cars" you probably need to be looking at a DBS (but has to be manual) or one of the original v12 vantage manuals (if you don't mind 2 seats)

GingerMunky

1,162 posts

256 months

Saturday 27th May 2017
quotequote all
Supercarhypercar said:
If I say I have a maximum budget of £135K to spend on a car, but equally happy to spend £70K aswell ??. I am not too fussed about the rear seats (already got an s class for the family) but the car from the outside must look stunning, head turner and the car should make a great sound. Of course depreciation is a key factor, I don't mind losing a bit of money but hopefully would like my car to be an investment in 5 years time and appreciate (get my money back at the least). What would be the preferred choice of car?
This is difficult because I am soooooo biased towards the Vanquish smile There are three options;

1) For your £135k I would try and get a 2015 Model Year, specifically at TouchTronic III. There are two such cars in Autotrader under your budget.

2) Alternatively 2013 Facelift DB9, much cheaper, further down the deprecation curve, and you can always change up to a Vanquish in a year or two.

3) Another Aston, perhaps the Vantage V12, it is also epic.

Its a difficult choice, first world problems smile

avinalarf

6,438 posts

141 months

Saturday 27th May 2017
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Supercarhypercar said:
If I say I have a maximum budget of £135K to spend on a car, but equally happy to spend £70K aswell ??. I am not too fussed about the rear seats (already got an s class for the family) but the car from the outside must look stunning, head turner and the car should make a great sound. Of course depreciation is a key factor, I don't mind losing a bit of money but hopefully would like my car to be an investment in 5 years time and appreciate (get my money back at the least). What would be the preferred choice of car?
I think whichever DB9 variant or Vanquish you buy you will enjoy the aesthetic appeal of that Aston.
The understated elegance of each model speaks for itself and will be admired not just by yourself but also by the public at large.
I have been tempted to update my 2006 DB9V but with its low £20K mileage and trouble free behaviour I'm not that bothered.
As a "Sunday" car it does everything I require whether it be performance or looks.
None of us want to lose money on our Aston but the depreciation factor ,generally speaking,should not really be that great, in the scheme of things,that it should be the main criteria when making your choice.
The pleasure of ownership cannot be measured by a few thousands of pounds.



Edited by avinalarf on Saturday 27th May 09:17

Jumpingjackflash

589 posts

178 months

Saturday 27th May 2017
quotequote all
I have a Midnight Blue 2007 DB9 manual with 22k mikes. How much do you think that is worth? Also with the DB11 not having a manual option where do you think prices will go?

M5MarkM

1,531 posts

170 months

Saturday 27th May 2017
quotequote all
Supercarhypercar said:
Thanks for the advice guys!!
I am now looking for the 8 speed vanquish. I believe they start from the year 2015 so I'll have to increase my budget.

Currently found then at around £140k. £35K more than the 6 speed. Do you think this 8 speed version will also drop to circa 100K?

Thanks again!
8 speed started sometime in 2014 so you can find one from then. It does make a difference and if you're still worried about depreciation I can only guess an 8 speed will have more value than the 6 speed. The 8 speed is better experience for sure

Supercarhypercar

Original Poster:

79 posts

82 months

Saturday 27th May 2017
quotequote all
Thanks Guys! Decided I'm going to go for a vanquish 8 speed. Just need to find the right colour combo, low mileage and price. What are the average maintenance costs on these?

hashluck

1,611 posts

274 months

Saturday 27th May 2017
quotequote all
Supercarhypercar said:
Thanks Guys! Decided I'm going to go for a vanquish 8 speed. Just need to find the right colour combo, low mileage and price. What are the average maintenance costs on these?
Good choice! They come under the fixed priced servicing so costs are pretty reasonable:

http://www.astonmartin.com/ownership/servicing#pri...

Vanquish 8-speed will still depreciate from here of course but certainly colour and spec may help stem the tide a little.

avinalarf

6,438 posts

141 months

Saturday 27th May 2017
quotequote all
Jumpingjackflash said:
I have a Midnight Blue 2007 DB9 manual with 22k mikes. How much do you think that is worth? Also with the DB11 not having a manual option where do you think prices will go?
With 22K mikes...not a lot.
However with a lowish 22K miles and being a rarer manual,circa £35/40 dealer....
circa £50K private.

Edited by avinalarf on Saturday 27th May 11:05

Supercarhypercar

Original Poster:

79 posts

82 months

Saturday 27th May 2017
quotequote all
hashluck said:
Good choice! They come under the fixed priced servicing so costs are pretty reasonable:

http://www.astonmartin.com/ownership/servicing#pri...

Vanquish 8-speed will still depreciate from here of course but certainly colour and spec may help stem the tide a little.
Which colours are the most desirable and what should I look for in the spec?

Shrimpvende

855 posts

91 months

Saturday 27th May 2017
quotequote all
How about something like this? It falls within your budget and consensus seems to be very low production numbers making this manual a rare car. It could well be the last N/A manual V12 Aston make (unless a run out model appears very soon) so could be a future classic?

http://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/2017...

Supercarhypercar

Original Poster:

79 posts

82 months

Saturday 27th May 2017
quotequote all
Shrimpvende said:
How about something like this? It falls within your budget and consensus seems to be very low production numbers making this manual a rare car. It could well be the last N/A manual V12 Aston make (unless a run out model appears very soon) so could be a future classic?

http://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/2017...
Unfortunately not a big fan of the design of the vantage. I am after something a bit more sculpted.

GingerMunky

1,162 posts

256 months

Saturday 27th May 2017
quotequote all
Supercarhypercar said:
Which colours are the most desirable and what should I look for in the spec?
I have the colours listed with the prices, so can post them up if it helps. I'm out at the moment so will do it this evening.

Btw, I would have chosen the 8 speed vanquish myself smile

tonyhall38

4,194 posts

215 months

Saturday 27th May 2017
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I need say no more.....

Upperworks

1,242 posts

151 months

Saturday 27th May 2017
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8 speed red car at Maranello looks a great price. 2015, 7k and under £125k.