AML - Stock Market Listing
Discussion
Unless it is pure trophy asset territory, only a fool would not use any means possible to get out of a deal made before the corona virus outbreak. Long term the outbreak will probably not have any effect on AML, but short term the effects of pushing back the China launch plan and subsequent sales will have a serious effect on shorter cash flow, there where it hurts AML the most. It is unlike that Stroll will not use this opportunity (if he can) to move the goalposts of the deal in his favour at the expense of other shareholders. Time will tell but not really what AML needed just now.
Is it expected that the previously announced rights issue, will be formally set out tomorrow with the 2019 Preliminary Results ?
The rights offer price will obviously need to be lower than the current trading price, thereby inviting further public comparisons with the 1900p. The whole listing exercise has been very unfortunate, and for what benefit to the Company? Mr Stroll could still have become involved, if AML had continued as a private company.
Stroll got his % of AML at close to market price (possible discount as shares soon bounced up to £5 level on basis of extra cash security). He will get additional benefit now as assume the rights will be 20% or so below current level (has bounced a bit today) so may save of further investment required to get up to 20% or so level. And anyway as whole markets have dropped around the world it's not an AML only skeleton that's been discovered and secondly it was known when 31 Jan 2020 equity stake deal done.
Given China overall car sales dropped over 90% in February so far, predicting fall year guidance for AML sales and EBITDA etc may be a thankless task.
Given China overall car sales dropped over 90% in February so far, predicting fall year guidance for AML sales and EBITDA etc may be a thankless task.
I think the sell off in AML will also be about lack of “wiggle room” in their business plan as anything else. AML is walking a financial tightrope so any delays to DBX from manufacturing issues because of Coronavirus or indeed anything else would hit AML hard. Market goes looking for weak balance sheets at times like this....
Jon39 said:
raceboy said:
Price sliding towards the magic £4.00 point again, any insider info to hint at them bouncing up to £5.00 on Monday
morning?
morning?
raceboy - How about trying a 24 hour trade on the 26th February ?
NO DON'T, only joking. That is the day before the 2019 Results Announcement.
I did warn you !
raceboy said:
Jon39 said:
I did warn you !
And I listened Do you think we'll see a number starting with a '2' today?
My own long held rule, is to never forecast anything to do with the stock market. At least that avoids being wrong.
I think the 2019 results were as expected by contributors to this topic, so probably not very much to say.
I note the CFO is leaving.
It looks as though the Ford connection is ending, because the V12 engine is going to be built in the UK.
The rights issue has been announced:- 14 for 25 @ 207p.
Edited by Jon39 on Thursday 27th February 09:32
I feel for the employees who bought into the IPO. Together with Penny Hughes and the CFO, Andy Palmer should now do the decent thing and leave. At the end of the day the buck stops with him but he doesn’t seem to see it that way. I can’t see how he can regain his credibility among the workforce going forward.
Stopping the EV program may well be the final nail in terms of the vision and competence of the current leadership. Understand the need to stop cash hemorrhage but a ‘reset’ with the rights issue cash could have meant double down and accelerate on the EV and stop the vanity and racing projects. There’s a reason for Tesla’s multiple and it’s about future potential; and they caught the majors napping.
Edited by Exitleft on Thursday 27th February 16:34
I have holdings in two businesses, which announced results today.
One has borrowings which are just less than the annual revenue. Made a loss and no dividend paid.
The other has borrowings which are more than double the annual revenue. Profit in the billions and the dividend was increased.
Fortunately I only have a token holding in one of those.
I think the moral of this tale must be, debt is not repaid with revenue.
More on the CFO stepping down (not pushed, honestly), heavy losses and fleshing out a few of the details of any implications of the coronavirus: Link to Autoblog
Cold said:
More on the CFO stepping down (not pushed, honestly) .....
For chartered accountants, finding a new post is usually very easy, especially now having plc experience.ajr550 said:
That knighthood for Andy Palmer that nobody wanted to support, must be getting closer !
Arise Sir Andy, for services to - - - - - - - - - - .Edited by Jon39 on Thursday 27th February 21:34
I appreciate some of the fall is down to general stockmarket panic that's going on at the moment, some to whether the takeover can now go through on the publicly released terms, some presumably is down to whether DBX will be delayed with the problems in China but regardless of the reasons, the fact is the shares are now at 3.07, a fall of 83% since launch and a resultant market cap of not quite £700M
From memory, they sold c 25% of the total shares, so that means the shares they sold that raised over £1B are now worth c £175M
Surely the most sensible thing to do is buy the shares back in, accept the IPO was a mistake and take the company off the stock exchange ?
Not quite sure how you deal with the issue of the employees who bought shares, as to avoid huge badwill they would need looking after but we are now in a situation where if the shares fall much more, the stated cost of the IPO (£136M) will be more than the value of the shares they released
From memory, they sold c 25% of the total shares, so that means the shares they sold that raised over £1B are now worth c £175M
Surely the most sensible thing to do is buy the shares back in, accept the IPO was a mistake and take the company off the stock exchange ?
Not quite sure how you deal with the issue of the employees who bought shares, as to avoid huge badwill they would need looking after but we are now in a situation where if the shares fall much more, the stated cost of the IPO (£136M) will be more than the value of the shares they released
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