AML - Stock Market Listing

[Jon39]

GreasyHands said:

You seem to be unduly pessimistic about the current lineup. I can understand that the company hasn’t met AP’s optimistic goals, and that the current financial condition of the company is ugly but my quick look at the sales figures are:

For the 5 years 2012-2016 prior to the second century cars, Aston sold a total of 18,343 units with an ASP of 123k. I would argue that these were some fairly prosperous years with the economy and equity market performance. .....

No reason at all for me to be pessimistic, I just attempt to use some factual numbers.

I have never given much thought to average selling prices. Do you think they tell us much. about the financial progress of the Company ?
Take as an example the Valkyrie. Very high average selling price, but a loss on every car sold.
At the time of the Valkyrie being announced, Andy Palmer spoke about it being a 'halo' car, to give engineering credibility to the subsequent range of new mid-engine models, but added that it was unlikely to be profitable. Such was the complexity of development, that the finances became far worse.

It is normal in the motor industry for model sales to peak in the first 2 or 3 years of production, then tail off, but there can be mini uplift
if there is a face lift, which is often in year 5.

Your comparison 2012 to 2016 was therefore in the tail off period. However, an even bigger factor was involved, the 2008 financial crash, which hit Aston Martin hard. DB9 and Vantage sales were exceptional (for AML) in the early years (some dealers eventually even had to refuse orders for the Vantage), but instead of the usual steady decline in sales numbers, they almost 'fell off a cliff' in 2009. Never really recovered, so that is the explanation for your use of the 2012 to 2016 period. There were cancelled orders for 4.3 Vantages and some of those new cars remained unsold for a whole year.

You mention inflation adjusting. It was interesting when people thought £120,000 was too high a price for the 2018 Vantage at the time of launch, but adjust for the change in money value and the list prices for old and new Vantages are very similar.

[ferrisbueller]

cardigankid said:

ferrisbueller said:

cardigankid said:

The difference of course with Porsche is anyone buying a Porsche product assumes rock solid engineering and build quality, which has got to help.

I've no idea what that assumption is based on.

It may be true or not, and it may not be your experience (though it is mine) but your average sports car buyer regards Porsche as the gold standard, and not because they are unaffordable.

I assume from a lack of exposure and real world experience.

[Simpo Two]

GreasyHands said:

cardigankid said:

The other factor in the Boxster phenomenon was that they held their value.

I bought my 1 year old 987.1 Boxster S with CPO for 63% of MSRP. I think would qualify as Aston style depreciation.

Yes, the cars sold like hotcakes in the beginning but Porsche fanboys threw every insult they could at the cars. I’m not sure any car was ever so hated or maligned. It was and still is a great car, even if I’m not a hairdresser.

So you like the Boxster - the poor man's Porsche - and it's popular and has its place in the line-up. But for Aston you say:

GreasyHands said:

Aston doesn’t need to sell cheaper cars anymore than Bentley, Ferrari, Lambo or McLaren do. ROFLMAO... the collection of crackpot, backseat CEOs on here will never fix it wit their “ poor man’s Aston” approach.

What Aston do you see the most? The V8 Vantage (2007 version)

[LTP]

ferrisbueller said:

I assume from a lack of exposure and real world experience.

And from internet rumours. Just like the ones that say how unreliable Astons are but have never heard of bore scoring or IMS bearings

[Jon39]

GreasyHands said:

Aston doesn’t need to sell cheaper cars anymore than Bentley, Ferrari, Lambo or McLaren do. ROFLMAO... the collection of crackpot, backseat CEOs on here will never fix it wit their “ poor man’s Aston” approach.

I don't know much about McLaren, but have they almost given up on their UK market?
2022 sales here (to July 31st) are 47% down on last year.

Jan to July
UK 2021
Aston Martin = 645
McLaren ...... = 245

Jan to July
UK 2022
Aston Martin = 689
McLaren ...... = 130

[SpeckledJim]

Jon39 said:

I don't know much about McLaren, but have they almost given up on their UK market?
2022 sales here (to July 31st) are 47% down on last year.

Jan to July
UK 2021
Aston Martin = 645
McLaren ...... = 245

Jan to July
UK 2022
Aston Martin = 689
McLaren ...... = 130

People are waiting for Artura. It makes their other cars look quite old.

[cardigankid]

In my view they have got some similar problems to Aston. Funding high end quality is both difficult and expensive. They have also shown signs of corporate instability. The PH community seems to consider this irrelevant, but it isn't. The well heeled and marginally interested in cars have enough risk in their lives - they don't want to buy more. It was always like that. RR were selling Shadows hand over fist in the 70's and the guys who bought those just regarded Aston Martin as a problem waiting to happen. That's why Mercedes do so well, that is why Bentley are a paragon in the luxury/performance market. A Bentley buyer does not expect his car to let him down, and he confidently expects Bentley to be there next month.

Your enthusiast dismisses that as unimportant. It is very important, and is why AM need to get through the current period of High Net Worth amateurism, leave the idiotic dalliance with the Stock Market behind, and become part of a large group, preferably mercedes Benz.

[Simpo Two]

cardigankid said:

and become part of a large group, preferably mercedes Benz.

In which case it will eventually disappear for sure, to become no more than a trim level.

Darwinism for cars I guess.

[oilit]

I would prefer Geely to Mercedes.

Geely got turned down in preference to Stroll, and got refused again at the recent fund raise. Their track record with Volvo is pretty impressive if you ask me.

I wonder if Mercedes said if you take the Geely route as an investor we will not participate - or something similar?

I just hope Geely do buy it - they obviously want it - and I suspect they would be prepared if buying it out of receivership to not ship a single unit for 12 months if Mercedes refused the components (just like BMW with RR) - and we would be back to using Volvo elements albeit in an electric skateboard.

Can’t happen soon enough for me

[cardigankid]

Simpo Two said:

cardigankid said:

and become part of a large group, preferably mercedes Benz.

In which case it will eventually disappear for sure, to become no more than a trim level.

Darwinism for cars I guess.

That might have been the approach in the 1970's (when Ford, for example took over Ghia) but do you honestly think Mercedes would do that today, after seeing what VW have done with Bentley and BMW have done with Rolls-Royce? I have no issue with Geely, but I believe that Mercedes have more experience of luxury and performance cars. The lack of a major parent company has always been a problem for Aston, and they have only really blossomed under David Brown, then under Ford. The idea of AML as an independent high performance brand is pure fantasy. I thought that we had put this argument to bed.

[SpeckledJim]

cardigankid said:

Simpo Two said:

cardigankid said:

and become part of a large group, preferably mercedes Benz.

In which case it will eventually disappear for sure, to become no more than a trim level.

Darwinism for cars I guess.

That might have been the approach in the 1970's (when Ford, for example took over Ghia) but do you honestly think Mercedes would do that today, after seeing what VW have done with Bentley and BMW have done with Rolls-Royce? I have no issue with Geely, but I believe that Mercedes have more experience of luxury and performance cars. The lack of a major parent company has always been a problem for Aston, and they have only really blossomed under David Brown, then under Ford. The idea of AML as an independent high performance brand is pure fantasy. I thought that we had put this argument to bed.

Yes. When cars were made out of metal and leather, you could make a better car simply by making it slowly and taking greater care.

Now cars are made out of computers and whoever has the best computers has the best car. Little companies can't make great computers - it's too difficult and complicated and expensive - so they need to rely on the support of big companies.

AM need to either jump into the warm embrace of a giant, or turn into the latest iteration of the Bristol or TVR stories.

[Jon39]

Can this really be true ?
A buy / sell difference (spread) of 32.8 pence.







Big companies, even with a £33 share price, often have just a 1 pence spread.





Is it simply the frequency of trading ?

[ferrisbueller]

oilit said:

I would prefer Geely to Mercedes.

Geely got turned down in preference to Stroll, and got refused again at the recent fund raise. Their track record with Volvo is pretty impressive if you ask me.

I wonder if Mercedes said if you take the Geely route as an investor we will not participate - or something similar?

I just hope Geely do buy it - they obviously want it - and I suspect they would be prepared if buying it out of receivership to not ship a single unit for 12 months if Mercedes refused the components (just like BMW with RR) - and we would be back to using Volvo elements albeit in an electric skateboard.

Can’t happen soon enough for me

ISTR Mercedes have a say in who can invest in AML as a condition of their arrangement and ownership. I assume PIF are now in that position, too.

[RichB]

oilit said:

I would prefer Geely to Mercedes.

Geely got turned down in preference to Stroll, and got refused again at the recent fund raise. Their track record with Volvo is pretty impressive if you ask me.

I wonder if Mercedes said if you take the Geely route as an investor we will not participate - or something similar?

I just hope Geely do buy it - they obviously want it - and I suspect they would be prepared if buying it out of receivership to not ship a single unit for 12 months if Mercedes refused the components (just like BMW with RR) - and we would be back to using Volvo elements albeit in an electric skateboard.

Can’t happen soon enough for me

Geely, who own Polestar who would offer EV expertise.

[Shrimpvende]

oilit said:

I would prefer Geely to Mercedes.

Geely got turned down in preference to Stroll, and got refused again at the recent fund raise. Their track record with Volvo is pretty impressive if you ask me.

I wonder if Mercedes said if you take the Geely route as an investor we will not participate - or something similar?

I just hope Geely do buy it - they obviously want it - and I suspect they would be prepared if buying it out of receivership to not ship a single unit for 12 months if Mercedes refused the components (just like BMW with RR) - and we would be back to using Volvo elements albeit in an electric skateboard.

Can’t happen soon enough for me

Just last week, I had a Volvo demo car for a few days (XC40 Electric). Fantastic car, great quality and I don't really have anything negative to say about it.

However, Geely (and Lotus, Volvo etc) don't have a V8 engine that AML can use like Mercedes do, nor do they produce real high end cars like Mercedes, so other than financial investment I don't know what they could give AML. If Geely did buy in, I assume Mercedes would reduce their partnership and may even cease it altogether as AML could be seen as a legitimate competitor.

If this were to happen, where else would they buy a V8 from? They can't afford to make a Euro 7 compliant engine themselves, the likes of VAG group aren't likely to sell them one...perhaps BMW might as they have with Land Rover? I have no idea how that engine stacks up to the likes of the Mercedes V8 though.

I think Mercedes have them in a bit of a corner - they've effectively blocked another manufacturer from taking them on properly like VAG/Bentley, can apparently veto financial investment from the likes of Geely, but after all these years have done nothing more than let them purchase their engines (in a state of de-tune!) and some out of date tech. Perhaps this was their plan all along - block the remaining British manufacturer from becoming much of a competitor to them or generating benefit to another of the German brands for very little financial outlay without any real long term desire to do much with it.

That's a very cynical view, but it would be a real shame if true!

Edited by Shrimpvende on Friday 12th August 16:23

[ferrisbueller]

RichB said:

oilit said:

I would prefer Geely to Mercedes.

Geely got turned down in preference to Stroll, and got refused again at the recent fund raise. Their track record with Volvo is pretty impressive if you ask me.

I wonder if Mercedes said if you take the Geely route as an investor we will not participate - or something similar?

I just hope Geely do buy it - they obviously want it - and I suspect they would be prepared if buying it out of receivership to not ship a single unit for 12 months if Mercedes refused the components (just like BMW with RR) - and we would be back to using Volvo elements albeit in an electric skateboard.

Can’t happen soon enough for me

Geely, who own Polestar who would offer EV expertise.

Mercedes also have EV expertise. And PIF have a decent stake in Lucid.

[D4rez]

You guys know Geely (specifically Li Shufu) has a 10% stake in Daimler so Mercedes vs Geely is much of a muchness for me

[ferrisbueller]

D4rez said:

You guys know Geely (specifically Li Shufu) has a 10% stake in Daimler so Mercedes vs Geely is much of a muchness for me

Did refer to their JV a while ago before the PIF deal was announced. Not much is clear cut nowadays.

[Jon39]

Did JLR fall out with AML, or Mercedes ?

'Mercedes bought into' - This goes back to 2013, the Dr Bez era. Don't think they have ever bought shares in AML, they have been given them as part of the technical agreements. Their first actual purchase will probably be in the proposed rights issue, because (possibly for the first time) they have committed to take up their rights.

'right up to when Mercedes came on board and AML were given the cold shoulder.'

Do you mean when they 'came on board' in 2013 ?


I had simply assumed that Daimler now Mercedes, were just happy to sell parts to AML, but still not sure why, because that contract would be 'peanuts' to Merecdes. Perhaps there is more to it, as you suggest. M-B even have a seat on the AML board. Wonder if they even have time to attend the board meetings. They must suppress laughter and think about their own Maybach S-class, each time Mr. S. shouts ultra-luxury. -

Mercedes seem to be phasing out the V8 in their own model range. High powered 4 cylinder 2 litre and inline 6 cylinder engines, both with electric boost assistance, seem to be their current favourites.

[GreasyHands]

Aside from Geely owning a 10% stake in Daimler, Geely controlled ( and mostly owned) Lotus has announced the AMG m139 engine is going in the new to be introduced Emira. That would hopefully suggest a decent working relationship between Geely and Mercedes AMG.

Besides Geely also owns London Taxi Company so they can give all you Brits complimentary rides to get your car serviced. What could be better than that!