AML - Stock Market Listing
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Quick reponse after scanning the Q1 report:
- Valhalla carries the company, without it would have been bankrupt. Not good for long term perspectives. For the next two years though, if they can sell all 1000 units with the same margin, it can carry the company. But with this we get back into the cycle of living from special to special, something they wanted to change. Please note that core models still do not have targeted margins!
- Sport/GT models quantities down despite deliveries of S models. Apparently demand is not so high. No details shared on that split or margin on S models.
- DBX again decreasing. First DBX sales are from 2020. When will we see a real refresh? By now we can conclude that the infotainment update alone was not enough. (as comparison: Lamborghini Urus sales are still stable, contributing to their healthy financials)
- Expensive financing is now putting everything under even more pressure.
- Cash including the +50M from selling the F1 naming rights to the privately owned F1 team was down to 177M. So "some" Yewtree members and Michael de Picciotto put in another ~50M to keep the banks sort of happy.
- Net dept: 1.46Bn. Valhalla margin can be used to lower that but do your own calculations on what is max possible from those sales.
> Code models margin needs to be improved so they can prevent the special to special surviving cycle.
> DBX need big refresh, the driving is praised, the infotainment is now on acceptable level, so they need to change something else; design, coupe variant?.
- Valhalla carries the company, without it would have been bankrupt. Not good for long term perspectives. For the next two years though, if they can sell all 1000 units with the same margin, it can carry the company. But with this we get back into the cycle of living from special to special, something they wanted to change. Please note that core models still do not have targeted margins!
- Sport/GT models quantities down despite deliveries of S models. Apparently demand is not so high. No details shared on that split or margin on S models.
- DBX again decreasing. First DBX sales are from 2020. When will we see a real refresh? By now we can conclude that the infotainment update alone was not enough. (as comparison: Lamborghini Urus sales are still stable, contributing to their healthy financials)
- Expensive financing is now putting everything under even more pressure.
- Cash including the +50M from selling the F1 naming rights to the privately owned F1 team was down to 177M. So "some" Yewtree members and Michael de Picciotto put in another ~50M to keep the banks sort of happy.
- Net dept: 1.46Bn. Valhalla margin can be used to lower that but do your own calculations on what is max possible from those sales.
> Code models margin needs to be improved so they can prevent the special to special surviving cycle.
> DBX need big refresh, the driving is praised, the infotainment is now on acceptable level, so they need to change something else; design, coupe variant?.
Q1 UK wholesales appear hugely different from the Q1 new UK registrations.
Puzzle.
Have dealers being registering and/or selling far more cars than the number of they are receiving from AML?
In the presentation, AH spoke about the wholesale/retail mismatch, but the difference seems very large.
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Extract from 2026 Q1 Report.
What does this mean?
'The company is on track to deliver net-zero manufacturing facilities by 2030.'
Will the two factories only work on windy days, when the sun is also shining ?
All employees travel to work on bicycles.
Cold salad for lunch.
Push the cars off the production lines.
They need to be sincere about what they have promised.
Jon39 said:
Extract from 2026 Q1 Report.
What does this mean?
'The company is on track to deliver net-zero manufacturing facilities by 2030.'
Will the two factories only work on windy days, when the sun is also shining ?
All employees travel to work on bicycles.
Cold salad for lunch.
Push the cars off the production lines.
They need to be sincere about what they have promised.
The way things are going at the moment I’m beginning to wonder if the company will be able to survive until 2030. Regarding your other post Jon I guess the difference could be down to MD loading in December 2025? Perhaps UK stock cars from then were registered in the first three months of 2026? I can’t see any other explanation for the discrepancy. AML.L pretty much unchanged today so far. We shall see I guess. BRM. Interesting reading in the latest SSO Report on the sector. https://ssoreport.com/who-lives-who-dies
I hadn't realised the Valour market had taken such a hammering. Under 3k miles, and half a million depreciation (and that's before Tom Hartley's taken a chunk too)
https://www.tomhartleyjnr.com/car/stock/2024/aston...
I hadn't realised the Valour market had taken such a hammering. Under 3k miles, and half a million depreciation (and that's before Tom Hartley's taken a chunk too)
https://www.tomhartleyjnr.com/car/stock/2024/aston...
silentbrown said:
- - I hadn't realised the Valour market had taken such a hammering.
Under 3k miles, and half a million depreciation (and that's before Tom Hartley's taken a chunk too).
Under 3k miles, and half a million depreciation (and that's before Tom Hartley's taken a chunk too).
Those of us with VH cars, can look at that arithmetic with astonishment.
Specials in recent years and also new Astons, seem to have been shedding huge amounts in initial depreciation.
Wonder if the Valkerie is an exception? Just having to always wear ear defenders, might be enough to spoil the initial driving excitement.
After 14 years of ownership, I still look at my rare colour, 20,000 mile, 4·7 Manual Coupe with pride and never give the £1,500 p.a. depreciation a thought.
Half a million Pounds ! Hope that is not of importance to the owner.
Edited by Dewi 2 on Wednesday 29th April 20:55
Jon39 said:
Extract from 2026 Q1 Report.
What does this mean?
'The company is on track to deliver net-zero manufacturing facilities by 2030.'
king about with green nonsense. Or do they think that if they build a 'net zero' car, hordes of wealthy econuts will suddenly emerge from behind their copies of The Grauniad and buy an Aston Martin instead of a bicycle?Ghini2 said:
Quick reponse after scanning the Q1 report:
- Valhalla carries the company, without it would have been bankrupt. Not good for long term perspectives.
The flip side is that the more Valhallas and higher price variants, the larger the daily warranty bill, costs of campaigns, recalls, software updates and buy-backs which hoover up the dealer's floor plan and prevent them taking wholesale cars from AML.- Valhalla carries the company, without it would have been bankrupt. Not good for long term perspectives.
Aston will be lucky to sell 4500 core wholesale this year (i don't believe their guidance). That has to be lowest # in decades. Stroll gambled on making this into a British Ferrari, he failed and it maybe AML's final act...you only have so many lives. They pretty much exhausted the financing options and are now pulling cheap tricks (ie F1 etc). It's 50/50 they survive thru 2028. When whispers of bankruptcy start to swirl it starts a death spiral and demand drys up a lot sooner than you think.
It was a big mistake going up market. The cars are decent but ~$250k vantages, ~$350k DB12, and $550k vanq are just not where the value for the customer is in any significant quantity. I bet the "real demand" is only about 2000 cars (ie customer spec orders) and rest of corp spec cars they are pushing out the door to survive. In the US there are ~600 new cars (about 15 per dealer) sitting on lots and 2027 production starts next week.
I wish this wasn't happening, I owned a vantage in the past and wanted a 2025 but stroll priced me out ;(
Maybe the UK gov will step in and save them...just a thought....Good Luck AML
It was a big mistake going up market. The cars are decent but ~$250k vantages, ~$350k DB12, and $550k vanq are just not where the value for the customer is in any significant quantity. I bet the "real demand" is only about 2000 cars (ie customer spec orders) and rest of corp spec cars they are pushing out the door to survive. In the US there are ~600 new cars (about 15 per dealer) sitting on lots and 2027 production starts next week.
I wish this wasn't happening, I owned a vantage in the past and wanted a 2025 but stroll priced me out ;(
Maybe the UK gov will step in and save them...just a thought....Good Luck AML
TheEnigma said:
It was a big mistake going up market. The cars are decent but ~$250k vantages, ~$350k DB12, and $550k vanq are just not where the value for the customer is in any significant quantity.
Maybe the UK gov will step in and save them...just a thought....Good Luck AML
Maybe the UK gov will step in and save them...just a thought....Good Luck AML
I think many here would agree with you about pricing.
My topic about owners buying a sequence of Aston Martins
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...
revealed how trading up used to be a major way of selling new cars to existing customers.
It is obvious why that is now very rare.
For a VH owner to buy a new AM now, it would probably mean parting with a perfect cherished car and £200,000.
Result - we continue to enjoy our present Aston Martin.
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'Maybe the UK gov will step in and save them'
History shows they (of any colour) cannot even run a bath, let alone attempt to turnaround a business.
None of the present cabinet members have ever started a business. Zero knowledge of the subject.
Jon39 said:
TheEnigma said:
It was a big mistake going up market. The cars are decent but ~$250k vantages, ~$350k DB12, and $550k vanq are just not where the value for the customer is in any significant quantity.
Maybe the UK gov will step in and save them...just a thought....Good Luck AML
Maybe the UK gov will step in and save them...just a thought....Good Luck AML
I think many here would agree with you about pricing.
My topic about owners buying a sequence of Aston Martins
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...
revealed how trading up used to be a major way of selling new cars to existing customers.
It is obvious why that is now very rare.
For a VH owner to buy a new AM now, it would probably mean parting with a perfect cherished car and £200,000.
Result - we continue to enjoy our present Aston Martin.
.....................................
'Maybe the UK gov will step in and save them'
History shows they (of any colour) cannot even run a bath, let alone attempt to turnaround a business.
None of the present cabinet members have ever started a business. Zero knowledge of the subject.
What Aston should be doing is having a halo car for your crypto boys and oil princes but have a sensible line up sitting and sclaing at the same price point at 911s. That gets people into the brand and gives them a workable ownership ladder to move up, or simply replace their existing for the same model very 3 to 4 years.
They also need to stop price gouging on the parts and open up a heritage parts supply, again like Porsche. I love my Aston but I have no love for the brand right now - I just see them as fleecing owners. Nobody expects to run one for the price of a Toyota, but equally, charging £300 for a washer pump which is a £15 Ford part just takes the piss.
TL:DR Get people into the brand, get them to stay with you and don't make ownership costs akin to being dry f
ked. Simpo Two said:
Jon39 said:
Extract from 2026 Q1 Report.
What does this mean?
'The company is on track to deliver net-zero manufacturing facilities by 2030.'
king about with green nonsense. Or do they think that if they build a 'net zero' car, hordes of wealthy econuts will suddenly emerge from behind their copies of The Grauniad and buy an Aston Martin instead of a bicycle?ks is most likely outsourcing the emissions to somewhere else with some word salad trickery, paying a bunch of green consultants to arrange for phillipino children to plant trees somewhere where nobody is actually going to check, so AML can tick a box and put it on their marketing. Not that I am cynical.As for car sales and wholesale volumes, my recent trip to an AM dealer was unsurprising in that they had a lot of new un registered cars for sale. Vantages, DB12s, DBXs, and new Vanquish, both coupes and rag tops.
Really sad to see the continued decline.
The new lineup is ace, I'd have any one of them - especially a Vanquish or Valhalla (both obviously way out of my price range!)
If the numbers were right I'd trade my 2019 Vantage for a new one, but either a heavily discounted new car or 2nd hand one is still going to be £70-100k to trade, which is far too much. That delta in percentage terms wouldn't be the same if I'd bought a 911 6 years ago and wanted to trade it for a new one.
Interestingly, the DB12's and now Vantages do seem to be holding up well on the used market, although I assume there is some restriction of supply. The market floor for a DB12 is around £140k, similar for the (admittedly newer) Vantage. This makes me think that the 'right' market price for these cars was probably somewhere around the £160-195k range, including sensible options. £200-250k is just too rich, hence the discounting/dropping £50-80k in the first year or so.
I'm starting to think about something different, and around the £150k mark there are a lot of interesting options, some of which have been devoid of depreciation for at least the last few years (F12, GT3, 458, 488), so even factoring in warranty costs would be far cheaper to own for a couple of years than a new/nearly new DB12/Vantage.
The new lineup is ace, I'd have any one of them - especially a Vanquish or Valhalla (both obviously way out of my price range!)
If the numbers were right I'd trade my 2019 Vantage for a new one, but either a heavily discounted new car or 2nd hand one is still going to be £70-100k to trade, which is far too much. That delta in percentage terms wouldn't be the same if I'd bought a 911 6 years ago and wanted to trade it for a new one.
Interestingly, the DB12's and now Vantages do seem to be holding up well on the used market, although I assume there is some restriction of supply. The market floor for a DB12 is around £140k, similar for the (admittedly newer) Vantage. This makes me think that the 'right' market price for these cars was probably somewhere around the £160-195k range, including sensible options. £200-250k is just too rich, hence the discounting/dropping £50-80k in the first year or so.
I'm starting to think about something different, and around the £150k mark there are a lot of interesting options, some of which have been devoid of depreciation for at least the last few years (F12, GT3, 458, 488), so even factoring in warranty costs would be far cheaper to own for a couple of years than a new/nearly new DB12/Vantage.
The sticker price is not really relevant. Almost all new cars are based on monthlies. There is a complex equation of initial price, financing costs, kickbacks from lenders, varying the term, massaging the residuals, and massaging the headline rates to make the monthlies look achievable. The reality is that the "list price" is just a variable in that equation and they can put it wherever they want to achieve the desired outcome.
When the owner comes to trade, they just move him into a new finance deal.
However, if, like me, you do not finance cars, the huge increase in sticker prices stops me from trading up as I used to. I'd trade up from my Vanquish Volante to a DB12 or even the latest Vanquish Volante if I could do it for £100k. The reality is that it is at least double that and, in three years, I will be back where I started.
When the owner comes to trade, they just move him into a new finance deal.
However, if, like me, you do not finance cars, the huge increase in sticker prices stops me from trading up as I used to. I'd trade up from my Vanquish Volante to a DB12 or even the latest Vanquish Volante if I could do it for £100k. The reality is that it is at least double that and, in three years, I will be back where I started.
TheEnigma said:
Stroll gambled on making this into a British Ferrari, he failed and it maybe AML's final act...you only have so many lives. They pretty much exhausted the financing options and are now pulling cheap tricks (ie F1 etc). It's 50/50 they survive thru 2028. When whispers of bankruptcy start to swirl it starts a death spiral and demand drys up a lot sooner than you think.
Stroll did not gamble. He planned out a very clever play.He played the the wealthy Ferrari collector and business man who saw an opportunity to create the British Ferrari. With the growing number of millionairs and billionairs he created the sentiment there would be room for another Ferrari. AM was in trouble, it had working factories, historic icon brand, SP was low, Ferrari SP was only going up and had huge value and limited production numbers etc. Then he got other people invested in the potential and the romantic idea of saving AM and built something the name deserves.
But that was not his play. Now I will not say he did not put a lot of his private money in the company, sure he did. But he was well aware of the risks and how difficult it would be to turn the ship. So, on the AML side he always split the needed investments with Yewtree and others like de Picciotto. Raised cash when they could etc. But he never shared with them the F1 team potential, that was his private move. With the sponsorship deal from AM alone he could have paid of the team in a couple of years. But he used the AM connection much more by saying it was a works team etc to set up big sponsor deals that allowed him to built the new campus and windtunnel etc, create real value. None of that sponsorship money flowed back to AML. Stroll always claimed the F1 team attracted so many new customers to AM but by now we can say it does not create a lot of sales. There was always a conflict of interest by having Stroll controling AML and at the same time have a private F1 team with a sponsorshop deal with AML. Also, 50% of AMLs money into the F1 team, 20M, went directly to Stroll his son Lance who had a salary of 10M, wich has always been way to high compared to other drives that actually performed much better on track. Again, nobody stopped this. The board always agreed. Now his F1 team is valued at over 2Bn, much more than AML! Stroll will make his money with the F1 team, not with AML. His priority has always been on the F1 team potential, AML has always been frustrating, difficult and in need for money. Well played..
Please also keep in mind that with the exception of the Valkyrie and Valhalla (where production etc is set up very different, 3rd party actually builts everything etc). AML still did not invest in new chasis for future models. Current models, although much improved over previous models, use the old chasis. Do you think they can re-use those again on the next generation? The point is they never commited to investing for the long term. Stroll does not need that because by then he is out.
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