AML - Stock Market Listing
Discussion
AstonZagato said:
The sticker price is not really relevant. Almost all new cars are based on monthlies. There is a complex equation of initial price, financing costs, kickbacks from lenders, varying the term, massaging the residuals, and massaging the headline rates to make the monthlies look achievable. The reality is that the "list price" is just a variable in that equation and they can put it wherever they want to achieve the desired outcome.
When the owner comes to trade, they just move him into a new finance deal.
However, if, like me, you do not finance cars, the huge increase in sticker prices stops me from trading up as I used to. I'd trade up from my Vanquish Volante to a DB12 or even the latest Vanquish Volante if I could do it for £100k. The reality is that it is at least double that and, in three years, I will be back where I started.
Hard to argue with any of this AZ and indeed much of what has been written since the results were released yesterday. But surely the sticker price has to have some relevance from a company accounting perspective. It has always been a bit of a mystery how the value of sales and number of units are recorded in the books. We know the AML business model effectively uses the MD network as a broker network, and they are often laden with stock that they have not ordered on behalf of their customers. This typically happens in Q4. Are sales to MDs recorded at full price on AMLs books and actually paid for by the MDs, who are then left holding the price risk? Surely if that’s the case every MD would be bankrupt by now. I’m really not sure what the answer is but the cost to change, even if it is affordable, really does make very little financial sense to a lot of current owners (including me) and as such the “ultra luxury” strategy adopted by LS has effectively alienated, and possibly priced out, a loyal client base. I really can’t see how any of this is going to end well. Net Debt is currently more than three times the Market Cap of the company, and almost £200 Mio higher than this time last year. Imho this is not sustainable, particularly if funding costs continue to squeeze higher. LS will no doubt escape unscathed as people like him always do, and of course he has the F1 team which seems to have value. But as for AML.L, I fear it’s just a matter of time…When the owner comes to trade, they just move him into a new finance deal.
However, if, like me, you do not finance cars, the huge increase in sticker prices stops me from trading up as I used to. I'd trade up from my Vanquish Volante to a DB12 or even the latest Vanquish Volante if I could do it for £100k. The reality is that it is at least double that and, in three years, I will be back where I started.
BRM.
Ghini2 said:
Stroll did not gamble. He planned out a very clever play.
He played the the wealthy Ferrari collector and business man who saw an opportunity to create the British Ferrari. With the growing number of millionairs and billionairs he created the sentiment there would be room for another Ferrari. AM was in trouble, it had working factories, historic icon brand, SP was low, Ferrari SP was only going up and had huge value and limited production numbers etc. Then he got other people invested in the potential and the romantic idea of saving AM and built something the name deserves.
But that was not his play. Now I will not say he did not put a lot of his private money in the company, sure he did. But he was well aware of the risks and how difficult it would be to turn the ship. So, on the AML side he always split the needed investments with Yewtree and others like de Picciotto. Raised cash when they could etc. But he never shared with them the F1 team potential, that was his private move. With the sponsorship deal from AM alone he could have paid of the team in a couple of years. But he used the AM connection much more by saying it was a works team etc to set up big sponsor deals that allowed him to built the new campus and windtunnel etc, create real value. None of that sponsorship money flowed back to AML. Stroll always claimed the F1 team attracted so many new customers to AM but by now we can say it does not create a lot of sales. There was always a conflict of interest by having Stroll controling AML and at the same time have a private F1 team with a sponsorshop deal with AML. Also, 50% of AMLs money into the F1 team, 20M, went directly to Stroll his son Lance who had a salary of 10M, wich has always been way to high compared to other drives that actually performed much better on track. Again, nobody stopped this. The board always agreed. Now his F1 team is valued at over 2Bn, much more than AML! Stroll will make his money with the F1 team, not with AML. His priority has always been on the F1 team potential, AML has always been frustrating, difficult and in need for money. Well played..
Please also keep in mind that with the exception of the Valkyrie and Valhalla (where production etc is set up very different, 3rd party actually builts everything etc). AML still did not invest in new chasis for future models. Current models, although much improved over previous models, use the old chasis. Do you think they can re-use those again on the next generation? The point is they never commited to investing for the long term. Stroll does not need that because by then he is out.
That's almost like you're saying Stroll put himself ahead of the brand, exploited AML for his own ends and if it goes tits up he won't mind too much. It seems like a longer version of the two guys who destroyed Rover and minted themselves.He played the the wealthy Ferrari collector and business man who saw an opportunity to create the British Ferrari. With the growing number of millionairs and billionairs he created the sentiment there would be room for another Ferrari. AM was in trouble, it had working factories, historic icon brand, SP was low, Ferrari SP was only going up and had huge value and limited production numbers etc. Then he got other people invested in the potential and the romantic idea of saving AM and built something the name deserves.
But that was not his play. Now I will not say he did not put a lot of his private money in the company, sure he did. But he was well aware of the risks and how difficult it would be to turn the ship. So, on the AML side he always split the needed investments with Yewtree and others like de Picciotto. Raised cash when they could etc. But he never shared with them the F1 team potential, that was his private move. With the sponsorship deal from AM alone he could have paid of the team in a couple of years. But he used the AM connection much more by saying it was a works team etc to set up big sponsor deals that allowed him to built the new campus and windtunnel etc, create real value. None of that sponsorship money flowed back to AML. Stroll always claimed the F1 team attracted so many new customers to AM but by now we can say it does not create a lot of sales. There was always a conflict of interest by having Stroll controling AML and at the same time have a private F1 team with a sponsorshop deal with AML. Also, 50% of AMLs money into the F1 team, 20M, went directly to Stroll his son Lance who had a salary of 10M, wich has always been way to high compared to other drives that actually performed much better on track. Again, nobody stopped this. The board always agreed. Now his F1 team is valued at over 2Bn, much more than AML! Stroll will make his money with the F1 team, not with AML. His priority has always been on the F1 team potential, AML has always been frustrating, difficult and in need for money. Well played..
Please also keep in mind that with the exception of the Valkyrie and Valhalla (where production etc is set up very different, 3rd party actually builts everything etc). AML still did not invest in new chasis for future models. Current models, although much improved over previous models, use the old chasis. Do you think they can re-use those again on the next generation? The point is they never commited to investing for the long term. Stroll does not need that because by then he is out.
Simpo Two said:
Ghini2 said:
Stroll did not gamble. He planned out a very clever play.
He played the the wealthy Ferrari collector and business man who saw an opportunity to create the British Ferrari. With the growing number of millionairs and billionairs he created the sentiment there would be room for another Ferrari. AM was in trouble, it had working factories, historic icon brand, SP was low, Ferrari SP was only going up and had huge value and limited production numbers etc. Then he got other people invested in the potential and the romantic idea of saving AM and built something the name deserves.
But that was not his play. Now I will not say he did not put a lot of his private money in the company, sure he did. But he was well aware of the risks and how difficult it would be to turn the ship. So, on the AML side he always split the needed investments with Yewtree and others like de Picciotto. Raised cash when they could etc. But he never shared with them the F1 team potential, that was his private move. With the sponsorship deal from AM alone he could have paid of the team in a couple of years. But he used the AM connection much more by saying it was a works team etc to set up big sponsor deals that allowed him to built the new campus and windtunnel etc, create real value. None of that sponsorship money flowed back to AML. Stroll always claimed the F1 team attracted so many new customers to AM but by now we can say it does not create a lot of sales. There was always a conflict of interest by having Stroll controling AML and at the same time have a private F1 team with a sponsorshop deal with AML. Also, 50% of AMLs money into the F1 team, 20M, went directly to Stroll his son Lance who had a salary of 10M, wich has always been way to high compared to other drives that actually performed much better on track. Again, nobody stopped this. The board always agreed. Now his F1 team is valued at over 2Bn, much more than AML! Stroll will make his money with the F1 team, not with AML. His priority has always been on the F1 team potential, AML has always been frustrating, difficult and in need for money. Well played..
Please also keep in mind that with the exception of the Valkyrie and Valhalla (where production etc is set up very different, 3rd party actually builts everything etc). AML still did not invest in new chasis for future models. Current models, although much improved over previous models, use the old chasis. Do you think they can re-use those again on the next generation? The point is they never commited to investing for the long term. Stroll does not need that because by then he is out.
That's almost like you're saying Stroll put himself ahead of the brand, exploited AML for his own ends and if it goes tits up he won't mind too much. It seems like a longer version of the two guys who destroyed Rover and minted themselves.He played the the wealthy Ferrari collector and business man who saw an opportunity to create the British Ferrari. With the growing number of millionairs and billionairs he created the sentiment there would be room for another Ferrari. AM was in trouble, it had working factories, historic icon brand, SP was low, Ferrari SP was only going up and had huge value and limited production numbers etc. Then he got other people invested in the potential and the romantic idea of saving AM and built something the name deserves.
But that was not his play. Now I will not say he did not put a lot of his private money in the company, sure he did. But he was well aware of the risks and how difficult it would be to turn the ship. So, on the AML side he always split the needed investments with Yewtree and others like de Picciotto. Raised cash when they could etc. But he never shared with them the F1 team potential, that was his private move. With the sponsorship deal from AM alone he could have paid of the team in a couple of years. But he used the AM connection much more by saying it was a works team etc to set up big sponsor deals that allowed him to built the new campus and windtunnel etc, create real value. None of that sponsorship money flowed back to AML. Stroll always claimed the F1 team attracted so many new customers to AM but by now we can say it does not create a lot of sales. There was always a conflict of interest by having Stroll controling AML and at the same time have a private F1 team with a sponsorshop deal with AML. Also, 50% of AMLs money into the F1 team, 20M, went directly to Stroll his son Lance who had a salary of 10M, wich has always been way to high compared to other drives that actually performed much better on track. Again, nobody stopped this. The board always agreed. Now his F1 team is valued at over 2Bn, much more than AML! Stroll will make his money with the F1 team, not with AML. His priority has always been on the F1 team potential, AML has always been frustrating, difficult and in need for money. Well played..
Please also keep in mind that with the exception of the Valkyrie and Valhalla (where production etc is set up very different, 3rd party actually builts everything etc). AML still did not invest in new chasis for future models. Current models, although much improved over previous models, use the old chasis. Do you think they can re-use those again on the next generation? The point is they never commited to investing for the long term. Stroll does not need that because by then he is out.
Castrol for a knave said:
See also BHS - do a sale and leaseback, take the capital receipts, trot off into the sunset and leave the Op Co to collapse under the weight of its own 2%/6% collar and cap rent burden.
I mentioned the similarity to Philip Green a long time ago in this thread. It’s always the employees and Retail Shareholders who get legged over and this looks very likely to follow the same pattern. BRM.
Simpo Two said:
The recent posts have it well: too expensive, entry level car needed. But neither of those glaringly obvious things fit with 'ultra-luxury'.
Will over-pricing finally destroy the brand or will there be what they call 'a correction', either in price or people?
Will over-pricing finally destroy the brand or will there be what they call 'a correction', either in price or people?
The 2005 V8V was of course introduced as a new lower-cost model to the existing range at that time. Was the previius 'starter' model DB7 over £100,000 at the end of production?
The Vantage was a great success and set the all-time sales record for AML.
The only other time that same strategy was attempted, would be the Cygnet.
'Tarting up' another manufacturer's car was adventurous and it failed to achieve the expected sales figures.
One premium segment manufacturer, who has successfully been able to launch a series of lower cost core models is Mercedes-Benz. From their original core range of C class; E class and S class, the lower price A class and B class were introduced and they sold successfully without harming the original range sales. Each of those additional models then spawned further ancillary models.
I cannot see additional lower cost models being a successful strategy. Anyway, where is the development cash?
We all suggested on here long ago, that by increasing prices considerably, normal economics would apply and sales numbers would reduce, irrespective of naming everything 'Ultra Luxury'.
Interestingly, there have been some examples in business, where product prices have been increased, resulting in sales increasing. It happens where consumers think a product at a low price, cannot be top quality.
Edited by Jon39 on Thursday 30th April 18:06
Simpo Two said:
That's almost like you're saying Stroll put himself ahead of the brand, exploited AML for his own ends and if it goes tits up he won't mind too much. It seems like a longer version of the two guys who destroyed Rover and minted themselves.
Surely he would also like to make a profit with AML, show the world he is a successful business man, turn the ship etc. But from the start he had bigger plans.Even if the AML part will be unsuccessful he will walk away with an F1 team worth over 2Bn and he got his son to play F1 driver for 10 years (earning him ~100M). Dont get me wrong, Stroll put his own money in the F1 team, invested, a lot of people used to say its difficult to make money in F1 so it is impressive. But he did use AML for that. He had the safety net of a 20M sponsorship deal from AML alone. He created some noise and momentum with AML to attract bigger sponsors to generated the income to invest in the new campus and windtunnel. He sold a part of the team probably to lower his exposure, campus and windtunnel where big investments. Currently the team is not performing so the future looks difficult, but as long as he is executive chairman of AML and nobody in the board will stand up against the construction he will get 20M a year to help pay off everything.
Its well played, absolutely. But what bothers me is that AML is a publicly traded company and Stroll is not operating in the best interest for that company, he operates for whats best for him. Meanwhile the board is too afraid to change this situation because there is no alternative, they even sign off on dumb things like selling the naming rights for many years for 50M wich is 1/3 of their quarterly spending rate. Yes Stroll and his buddies keep the lights on but only bare minimum. It might sound like a lot of money, putting in another 50M of cash and it is a a lot of money but its always the bare minimum to make it another quarter / half year. Nothing is for the long term for the company. I have said this for many years now, its a conflict of interest but nobody seems to care as long as the lights stay on.
Minglar said:
I did not realise that it was Doug Lafferty speaking at the presentation. Thought it was the CEO. Has he lost interest?
Maybe it will be the receptionist presenting next time. -
I read the SSO report as far as the public are allowed.
Cannot be bothered with registration.
Jon39 said:
Minglar said:
I did not realise that it was Doug Lafferty speaking at the presentation. Thought it was the CEO. Has he lost interest?
Maybe it will be the receptionist presenting next time. -
I read the SSO report as far as the public are allowed.
Cannot be bothered with registration.
BRM.
AstonZagato said:
However, if, like me, you do not finance cars, the huge increase in sticker prices stops me from trading up as I used to. I'd trade up from my Vanquish Volante to a DB12 or even the latest Vanquish Volante if I could do it for £100k. The reality is that it is at least double that and, in three years, I will be back where I started.
Same here. As a rough estimate, to get a new Vanquish Volante I reckon I d need my current Vanquish S Volante plus my current V12VSM plus around £250k. I could do it if I wanted to, but it s never happening. Partly because I like the cars I have, and partly because that £250k would vaporise. There s insufficient value in return to allow that.
That isn’t to say that the price is wrong, but the residuals aren’t appealing.
Minglar said:
Jon39 said:
Minglar said:
I did not realise that it was Doug Lafferty speaking at the presentation. Thought it was the CEO. Has he lost interest?
Maybe it will be the receptionist presenting next time. -
I read the SSO report as far as the public are allowed.
Cannot be bothered with registration.
BRM.
SSO said:
Always boosted sales during October, November & December.
Perhaps a similar system to Starmer's claim of 4 million new NHS appointments.
Last minute cancellation of appointments for 4 million patients, then give them all new appointments.
Target met, tick, job done.
I have now waited one and a half years for NHS treatment. Their constantly published target is always 18 weeks.
The treatment we do receive though, is being treated as fools.
No wonder the private hospital sector is busy.
Jon39 said:
Minglar said:
I did not realise that it was Doug Lafferty speaking at the presentation. Thought it was the CEO. Has he lost interest?
Maybe it will be the receptionist presenting next time. -
I read the SSO report as far as the public are allowed.
Cannot be bothered with registration.
LooneyTunes said:
Same here. As a rough estimate, to get a new Vanquish Volante I reckon I d need my current Vanquish S Volante plus my current V12VSM plus around £250k. I could do it if I wanted to, but it s never happening.
Partly because I like the cars I have, and partly because that £250k would vaporise. There s insufficient value in return to allow that.
That isn t to say that the price is wrong, but the residuals aren t appealing.
Plus the Vanquish is and feels much larger than the past Vanquish. V12VSM + Vanq S V will be future classics as basically the last n/a engines from AM. The current series doesn't sound all that great to me either compared to the n/a v12/v8 's . Db12 is kinda meh sounding, and you know at heart it's an AMG engine. In the US there are already Db12's in the low 200K range barely a year old. Partly because I like the cars I have, and partly because that £250k would vaporise. There s insufficient value in return to allow that.
That isn t to say that the price is wrong, but the residuals aren t appealing.
SSO said:
Latest Aston Report is open to the public
'Applying similar logic to the Q4 2025-Q3 2026 period, based on the two completed quarters, gives a projection of 5,233 wholesales, a decline of 9%.
I don't have the numbers to hand, but go back before the DBX was introduced and the Sports & GT sales far exceeded present day figures.
I think AML appear to be doing well with the Valhalla, target 1,000, considering the high price.
Remember that the VH V12V also had an initial limit of 1,000 and the price of that car was just a fraction of the Valhalla.
It took some time before the V12V reached its sales limit. Then an additional 200 were allocated to USA.
Jon39 said:
I think AML appear to be doing well with the Valhalla, target 1,000...
Remember that the VH V12V also had an initial limit of 1,000...
Would AML do better if they stopped limiting production and tried to sell more cars instead? Then again, if they lose money on every sale they'd be better off not selling any Remember that the VH V12V also had an initial limit of 1,000...
'Hello, I'm ludicrously wealthy and would like to buy one of your Aston Vxxxxxs for £2M please'. 'I'm sorry we've just sold the last of the 100'.
Simpo Two said:
Would AML do better if they stopped limiting production and tried to sell more cars instead? Then again, if they lose money on every sale they'd be better off not selling any
'Hello, I'm ludicrously wealthy and would like to buy one of your Aston Vxxxxxs for £2M please'.
'I'm sorry we've just sold the last of the 100'.
They need the old school Aston Martin numeracy.'Hello, I'm ludicrously wealthy and would like to buy one of your Aston Vxxxxxs for £2M please'.
'I'm sorry we've just sold the last of the 100'.
The V8 Zagato will be limited to 50 examples.
All gone!
The V8 Zagato Volante will be limited to 25 examples.
Gassing Station | Aston Martin | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff