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Given that 80% of year 1 production was always heading to overseas markets, it shouldn't come as a surprise that the DBX isn't being spotted frequently in the UK (though funnily enough, of the last 3 Astons I've seen out and about, 2 were DBX's). When AML conducted their market research, the feeling was that the UK wasn't interested in the car, because customers were happy with their Range Rovers, Cayennes and so on.
From around July / August this year, I expect a greater number of build slots will be swung towards the UK market. In terms of overall sales and the belief that it's the wholesale numbers doing the all the work and nobody's buying them, the quoted figure was 746 No. Q1 DBX sales.
Some quick maths based on the assumption it's not selling well and that the only sales are those to dealers. There are IIRC, 160 dealerships globally. A dealer will typically have 2 demonstrators of each model, a static and dynamic (one for the showroom, the other for test drives). In the UK at least, a dynamic demo car will run up to say 5000 miles and then be set aside in the Timeless selection with a new demonstrator ordered to replace it. There's a chicken and egg thing here where theoretically, you could have multiple used ones on campus that were retired demonstrators if you're seeing a lot of walk in customers wanting to try it but not buy it.
I recall that the first demo DBX at AM Bristol put on close to 500 miles in its first week alone, so it's reasonable to assume other dealers have had the miles piled on which starts the cycle of getting a new demo in.
In reality, the demo cars see a dip in price and are available immediately, so unless they're in a truly 'acquired taste' spec, they tend to be bought up quickly. In the UK at least, there's been some flipping going on, hence why there's a selection of cars with near delivery mileage, sat at the independent prestige dealers. Residuals on the DBX look fairly robust for such a new model, but they're not appreciating in value - the only car doing that currently is the Rapide AMR that saw a small bump in recent weeks.
That being the case, at least 426 would be customer specced orders. I'd caveat this by saying that's not a scientific way of doing it, much like counting how many you see on the road isn't really representative of how strong sales are (because despite how popular the old Vantage was, if you don't see one on the road for months, does it mean it didn't sell well?).
The oddity here is North America where it's more common that dealers order stock in a range of specs, presumably because buyers want the ease of a quick purchase without a long lead time. That's somewhat against the grain where AML's re-jigged things to correct the supply & demand issue so as to only commit to building a car when an order's placed with a spec locked in. There's a tricky balance in providing a customer with the rarity and exclusivity of low volume production, while managing expectations of other customers who want everything yesterday.
By comparison, the Urus sold 1382 units in Q1, and I've no idea if that includes wholesale numbers, but it's many years into production and should be a smooth operation under the watchful eye of VAG.
Personally, I'd applaud the staff at St Athan for getting those 746 examples built, during a pandemic with it being an all new model in a new factory. In addition, I'd give a pat on the back to all the dealers who've maintained (overall) a great level of service despite the numerous obstacles in their way. I'd expect Q3 and Q4 to be somewhat more representative of where AML is following the company restructure and change in tact regarding volumes produced.
Apologies, much waffle early in the morning.
From around July / August this year, I expect a greater number of build slots will be swung towards the UK market. In terms of overall sales and the belief that it's the wholesale numbers doing the all the work and nobody's buying them, the quoted figure was 746 No. Q1 DBX sales.
Some quick maths based on the assumption it's not selling well and that the only sales are those to dealers. There are IIRC, 160 dealerships globally. A dealer will typically have 2 demonstrators of each model, a static and dynamic (one for the showroom, the other for test drives). In the UK at least, a dynamic demo car will run up to say 5000 miles and then be set aside in the Timeless selection with a new demonstrator ordered to replace it. There's a chicken and egg thing here where theoretically, you could have multiple used ones on campus that were retired demonstrators if you're seeing a lot of walk in customers wanting to try it but not buy it.
I recall that the first demo DBX at AM Bristol put on close to 500 miles in its first week alone, so it's reasonable to assume other dealers have had the miles piled on which starts the cycle of getting a new demo in.
In reality, the demo cars see a dip in price and are available immediately, so unless they're in a truly 'acquired taste' spec, they tend to be bought up quickly. In the UK at least, there's been some flipping going on, hence why there's a selection of cars with near delivery mileage, sat at the independent prestige dealers. Residuals on the DBX look fairly robust for such a new model, but they're not appreciating in value - the only car doing that currently is the Rapide AMR that saw a small bump in recent weeks.
That being the case, at least 426 would be customer specced orders. I'd caveat this by saying that's not a scientific way of doing it, much like counting how many you see on the road isn't really representative of how strong sales are (because despite how popular the old Vantage was, if you don't see one on the road for months, does it mean it didn't sell well?).
The oddity here is North America where it's more common that dealers order stock in a range of specs, presumably because buyers want the ease of a quick purchase without a long lead time. That's somewhat against the grain where AML's re-jigged things to correct the supply & demand issue so as to only commit to building a car when an order's placed with a spec locked in. There's a tricky balance in providing a customer with the rarity and exclusivity of low volume production, while managing expectations of other customers who want everything yesterday.
By comparison, the Urus sold 1382 units in Q1, and I've no idea if that includes wholesale numbers, but it's many years into production and should be a smooth operation under the watchful eye of VAG.
Personally, I'd applaud the staff at St Athan for getting those 746 examples built, during a pandemic with it being an all new model in a new factory. In addition, I'd give a pat on the back to all the dealers who've maintained (overall) a great level of service despite the numerous obstacles in their way. I'd expect Q3 and Q4 to be somewhat more representative of where AML is following the company restructure and change in tact regarding volumes produced.
Apologies, much waffle early in the morning.
SSO said:
Just went through Aston Q1 2021 results. Thought it was a very mixed bag. DBX now the majority of the sales for the last two quarters. Sports and GT cars sales have really dropped.
Confirms what I’ve heard locally , takeaway delivering pre ordered DBX and selling second hand stock ,nothing else seems to be moving at the moment.Useful analysis - thanks!
There are definitely more than 2 used DBX sat around at some Uk dealerships - but it seems they don’t advertise their entire used stock openly at the same time.
Aside from that, I do feel all the marketing (there isn’t a lot) is all F1 related - which for me personally is as interesting and engaging as apartments and boats branded with the AM logo was pre IPO.
The brand (in my eyes at least) is starting to look unloved by it’s owners - by that I mean at least Bez had some great cars delivered in his tenure, and Palmer seemed to have real passion for the brand and its customers.
Current leadership seem to only be interested in F1 - I don’t see or hear of any any real engagement or passion from them towards new or existing owners or their road cars.
For the first time I found myself looking at the Ferrari website the other day - that provoked more of a stirring in my trousers than the AM website has done for a couple of years.....
There are definitely more than 2 used DBX sat around at some Uk dealerships - but it seems they don’t advertise their entire used stock openly at the same time.
Aside from that, I do feel all the marketing (there isn’t a lot) is all F1 related - which for me personally is as interesting and engaging as apartments and boats branded with the AM logo was pre IPO.
The brand (in my eyes at least) is starting to look unloved by it’s owners - by that I mean at least Bez had some great cars delivered in his tenure, and Palmer seemed to have real passion for the brand and its customers.
Current leadership seem to only be interested in F1 - I don’t see or hear of any any real engagement or passion from them towards new or existing owners or their road cars.
For the first time I found myself looking at the Ferrari website the other day - that provoked more of a stirring in my trousers than the AM website has done for a couple of years.....
oilit said:
Useful analysis - thanks!
For the first time I found myself looking at the Ferrari website the other day - that provoked more of a stirring in my trousers than the AM website has done for a couple of years.....
You want to go and drive some of them, recently was lucky enough to have back to back drives of the Roma, 812GTS, and F8....all I can say is WOW. For the first time I found myself looking at the Ferrari website the other day - that provoked more of a stirring in my trousers than the AM website has done for a couple of years.....
oilit said:
Useful analysis - thanks!
There are definitely more than 2 used DBX sat around at some Uk dealerships - but it seems they don’t advertise their entire used stock openly at the same time.
Aside from that, I do feel all the marketing (there isn’t a lot) is all F1 related - which for me personally is as interesting and engaging as apartments and boats branded with the AM logo was pre IPO.
The brand (in my eyes at least) is starting to look unloved by it’s owners - by that I mean at least Bez had some great cars delivered in his tenure, and Palmer seemed to have real passion for the brand and its customers.
Current leadership seem to only be interested in F1 - I don’t see or hear of any any real engagement or passion from them towards new or existing owners or their road cars.
For the first time I found myself looking at the Ferrari website the other day - that provoked more of a stirring in my trousers than the AM website has done for a couple of years.....
The interview with TM on the PH front page is worth a read. There's some fairly important announcements (some will be welcomed, others less so). The crux of it - heavily face lifted sports cars in 2023, bespoke V8 engines built by AMG, and an AML developed hybrid system. The TM01 has officially been canned. DBX variants (hybrid ones, and lairy ones) inbound. The AE31 V12 appears to be bowing out in a few years, which isn't a surprise - it's an evolution of the engine that dates back to the earliest Gaydon cars, but it's sad that its days are numbered.There are definitely more than 2 used DBX sat around at some Uk dealerships - but it seems they don’t advertise their entire used stock openly at the same time.
Aside from that, I do feel all the marketing (there isn’t a lot) is all F1 related - which for me personally is as interesting and engaging as apartments and boats branded with the AM logo was pre IPO.
The brand (in my eyes at least) is starting to look unloved by it’s owners - by that I mean at least Bez had some great cars delivered in his tenure, and Palmer seemed to have real passion for the brand and its customers.
Current leadership seem to only be interested in F1 - I don’t see or hear of any any real engagement or passion from them towards new or existing owners or their road cars.
For the first time I found myself looking at the Ferrari website the other day - that provoked more of a stirring in my trousers than the AM website has done for a couple of years.....
It's perhaps the first time the actual downsizing of operations has had some numbers put to it other than published staff cuts, so hopefully explains the how and why that the last 12 months might seem to be doing little to address existing owners concerns or gripes with the cars, when the focus has been on the foundation of the business being more efficient. Improving the cars is the next part of the to do list.
I'm hopeful that the lean years are behind them, but I have a nagging feeling that despite the economies of scale being explained, and that a new in-house engine not being feasible (not just cost wise, but time wise), there will always be a reluctance from some about the use of an out sourced engine builder (which is what AMG becomes, in a similar fashion to Cosworth).
Thanks - hadn’t seen the interview, what’s that famous phrase, when your start a new job write three letters: http://www.hpmd.com/hpmd/personal/LTYMstories.nsf/...
Sounds like Moers has used the first one
I am shocked that they are shipping painted bodies from wales to Birmingham though - also the amount of unsold cars that were sat in the factory
Seriously though:- I think the real acid test for me will be the facelifts - there is potentially so much to change - but get that right and sports (non DBX) sales could recover, get it wrong however......
Sounds like Moers has used the first one
I am shocked that they are shipping painted bodies from wales to Birmingham though - also the amount of unsold cars that were sat in the factory
Seriously though:- I think the real acid test for me will be the facelifts - there is potentially so much to change - but get that right and sports (non DBX) sales could recover, get it wrong however......
Edited by oilit on Wednesday 12th May 08:27
oilit said:
Thanks - hadn’t seen the interview, what’s that famous phrase, when your start a new job write three letters: http://www.hpmd.com/hpmd/personal/LTYMstories.nsf/...
Sounds like Moers has used the first one
Seriously though:- I think the real acid test for me will be the facelifts - there is potentially so much to change - but get that right and sports (non DBX) sales could recover, get it wrong however......
In all honesty, I don't expect the sports car sales figures to change dramatically; part of the reason for the organisation restructuring and downsizing was that it meant the company didn't need to sell that many cars to make ends meet. I know we all like to analyse the quarterly figures and it almost always is deemed a failing business because it doesn't reach the giddy heights of 7300 units per year like 'the good days', but the business has changed.Sounds like Moers has used the first one
Seriously though:- I think the real acid test for me will be the facelifts - there is potentially so much to change - but get that right and sports (non DBX) sales could recover, get it wrong however......
In a similar way that if you move to a smaller house with lower running costs, you haven't the worry about income to pay for the upkeep, the trimming down of the business and genuine lean efficiencies (I dislike the term 'lean' because it often rings alarm bells about redundancies), but it's meant the cost of operations has dropped without a drop in quality (one example being I think the paint quality on the sports cars will improve by using the St Athan paint shop). The business therefore becomes better placed and doesn't need to chase the IPO promised level of sales per annum.
One telling thing was that the sports car range as it stands, even with face lifts, wont see a hybrid drivetrain - so the DBSS you see today, might look different, but it'll still be powered solely by a V12. That's a big statement of intent, and whether it's because it's cheaper to do so, or because its what a customer would prefer anyway, I think it's nice that they'll run them for as long as they're allowed to (where other car makers are actively trying to avoid having any ICE cars on sale in say 5 years time - that's what it feels like at least).
NFC 85 Vette said:
In all honesty, I don't expect the sports car sales figures to change dramatically; part of the reason for the organisation restructuring and downsizing was that it meant the company didn't need to sell that many cars to make ends meet. I know we all like to analyse the quarterly figures and it almost always is deemed a failing business because it doesn't reach the giddy heights of 7300 units per year like 'the good days', but the business has changed.
Thank you Jon. I had not seen that TM interview before. Interesting.
Extract;
Other changes include the decision to use the new, state-of-the-art paint shop at St. Athan for the company's sports cars as well as the DBX - they will return to Gaydon for final assembly - and a cull of many of the separate facilities and divisions that had proliferated in Aston's fat years leading up to its IPO. "We're putting everything together. We had so many separate organisations and units, we have no need for that... and you feel a team spirit which wasn't here when I first arrived. That was another astonishing thing - seeing how many silos there were in a small company like this."
Presumably the Gaydon paintshop has been closed and now every assembled sportscar body goes on a 300 mile round trip to Wales.
Wonder if the Wellesbourne SV operation has closed ?
Jon, you refer to the 2007 record production 7,300 as the 'giddy heights' (that was with one factory).
The stated total annual target now is 5,000 sports & GT + 5,000 SUV.
My impression is that AML building cars for stock, only began when the DB11 and new Vantage sales figures were weaker than anticipated.
The presumption being, that AP wanted to impress investors with better figures.
Jon39 said:
Thank you Jon. I had not seen that TM interview before. Interesting.
Extract;
Other changes include the decision to use the new, state-of-the-art paint shop at St. Athan for the company's sports cars as well as the DBX - they will return to Gaydon for final assembly - and a cull of many of the separate facilities and divisions that had proliferated in Aston's fat years leading up to its IPO. "We're putting everything together. We had so many separate organisations and units, we have no need for that... and you feel a team spirit which wasn't here when I first arrived. That was another astonishing thing - seeing how many silos there were in a small company like this."
Presumably the Gaydon paintshop has been closed and now every assembled sportscar body goes on a 300 mile round trip to Wales.
Wonder if the Wellesbourne SV operation has closed ?
Jon, you refer to the 2007 record production 7,300 as the 'giddy heights'.
The stated total annual target now is 5,000 sports & GT + 5,000 SUV.
My impression is that AML building cars for stock, only began when the DB11 and new Vantage sales figures were weaker than anticipated.
The presumption being, that AP wanted to impress investors with better figures.
With the promises made in the IPO days, came the requirement to deliver, and when it didn't happen, the spend involved left a void. These days it feels like a case of under promise and over deliver, which is more conservative (some may think pessimistic) view but it's more realistic and more attainable factoring in unforeseen things.
The DBX launched in such a turbulent year I don't think we'll really know how well it's done until perhaps the latter half of 2022. It's probably fair to say it's done a good deal of heavy lifting at a difficult time though. It's probably not the car that traditionalists want, but like the Cayenne, it becomes a bread winner that afforded the development of the stuff punters more typically wanted. There's a symbiotic relationship where the heritage of the marque helps the DBX sell to those who are new to Aston Martin, and those sales keep the money coming in to develop more traditional cars that aficionados want.
Oversupply of DB11 and Vantage seemed to be a byproduct of promises made with the IPO. With the DB11, it was to try and make up for delays in the early cars going to customers, but then when production became smoother, the tap didn't get turned off quick enough IMO. To this day I don't know why the same mistake was made with building so many Vantage examples and forcing them onto dealers in 2018 and 2019 (IPO promises again, I suspect).
The end result means early DB11's seem to have stabilised at around £80-85k and early Vantages around £90k. In hindsight, I think the call to clear the decks in Christmas 2019 was just about right, though maybe a touch too late, and there'll be collateral damage at the end of 2021 when they all come back to dealers via BCA. Inevitably, we could be looking at 2019 Vantage coupe values in January 2022 being somewhere around £70-75k (just my finger in the air estimate). A good value used buy, but the inconvenient truth is that there were (comparatively) so many produced due to a financial need, and not due to customer demand.
Actually, the write up on auto car is in my opinion also interesting and has a few more insights revealed esp about the v6 :-0 :--
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/new-as...
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/new-as...
oilit said:
Good discussion!!!
I wonder what happens when Robert damages the paint in Gaydon during assembly now? - it used to have final inspection which involved paint rectification on-site.
Is the wales factory extendable does anyone know - ie could they move everything under one roof?
The fact that the assembly and painting of a low volume car cannot be done in the same place makes me wonder if this should not be tackled first. I remember the first Audi TTs being shipped from Germany to Hungary and back by train because it was cheaper to assemble them in Hungary but they were still selling them as 'Prime German automobiles'. However, for just a paint job, it seems completely non economical...I wonder what happens when Robert damages the paint in Gaydon during assembly now? - it used to have final inspection which involved paint rectification on-site.
Is the wales factory extendable does anyone know - ie could they move everything under one roof?
F
oilit said:
Actually, the write up on auto car is in my opinion also interesting and has a few more insights revealed esp about the v6 :-0 :--
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/new-as...
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/new-as...
Extract;
Aston previously planned to relaunch Lagonda as a tech-focused Rolls-Royce rival with bespoke models, but Moers believes that this idea was “plain wrong, as it dilutes from the main brand”. He views Lagonda “as a more luxurious brand”, but said: “We’re still defining it.”
Moers added that Aston will produce Lagonda variants of its existing models with a greater focus on luxury, similar to Mercedes and Maybach.
What could possibly go wrong?
That does seem to be a very difficult niche market, which Rolls Royce and Bentley almost have to themselves.
I think the Maybach cars have finished and the name has now been diluted to almost a trim level of the S-class.
The Taraf, well it just seemed to slip away quietly, never heard of again.
Lagonda's history (which includes racing) is longer than Aston Martin. Respected makers of luxurious 4 door cars.
I suspect there's something self-serving in some of the statements Moers is making, and there's something else going on.
Firstly, the bulk of the content on the cars has always been "kitted", especially the trim, as it's unique to the individual vehicle.
Secondly, why would you want to double- and treble-handle parts that go on every car (receive them, unpack them, kit them, pick them up and fit them) when you can just put the designated supplier packaging lineside and have the operator pick them out? And call it more efficient?
Thirdly, as has been noted, increasing your supply line, reducing your flexibility and having to increase stock of painted bodies while you ship bodyshells down the M4, paint them, then ship them back, while increasing risk of damage and reducing your capability to fix it makes absolutely no sense. It's not as if the Gaydon paint plain is Fred in a wooden shed with a Binks-Bullows gun and pots of paint, as any viewing of the recent Gaydon build area videos show. However, if you happen to be in a strictly-limited production floor area and want to expand something (like electric vehicles, which require special safety handling) then it makes some sense. It makes even more sense if you ship the actual body manufacture down to St Athan too, so let's wait for that announcement.
Fourthly, during his time at AMG production of AMG cars went from being built in bespoke facilities to being built on the main Mercedes lines.
Fifthly, if he seriously thinks integrating his SVO into the mainstream is going to help costs and flexibility he has another thing coming. This has been tried by many manufacturers, like Rolls-Royce and Bentley, only to realise they'd lost the ability to respond to customer's customisation requests because of the constraints of efficient production-line manufacture and reversed the decision.
Sixthly. Suddenly Moers, who is, I believe, an engine man, has improved the handling? Because he knows more about ride and handling than Matt Becker? Footnote - Bernd Mayländer said that the Aston Vantage safety car can take the corners faster than the AMG
All just my opinion, of course.
Firstly, the bulk of the content on the cars has always been "kitted", especially the trim, as it's unique to the individual vehicle.
Secondly, why would you want to double- and treble-handle parts that go on every car (receive them, unpack them, kit them, pick them up and fit them) when you can just put the designated supplier packaging lineside and have the operator pick them out? And call it more efficient?
Thirdly, as has been noted, increasing your supply line, reducing your flexibility and having to increase stock of painted bodies while you ship bodyshells down the M4, paint them, then ship them back, while increasing risk of damage and reducing your capability to fix it makes absolutely no sense. It's not as if the Gaydon paint plain is Fred in a wooden shed with a Binks-Bullows gun and pots of paint, as any viewing of the recent Gaydon build area videos show. However, if you happen to be in a strictly-limited production floor area and want to expand something (like electric vehicles, which require special safety handling) then it makes some sense. It makes even more sense if you ship the actual body manufacture down to St Athan too, so let's wait for that announcement.
Fourthly, during his time at AMG production of AMG cars went from being built in bespoke facilities to being built on the main Mercedes lines.
Fifthly, if he seriously thinks integrating his SVO into the mainstream is going to help costs and flexibility he has another thing coming. This has been tried by many manufacturers, like Rolls-Royce and Bentley, only to realise they'd lost the ability to respond to customer's customisation requests because of the constraints of efficient production-line manufacture and reversed the decision.
Sixthly. Suddenly Moers, who is, I believe, an engine man, has improved the handling? Because he knows more about ride and handling than Matt Becker? Footnote - Bernd Mayländer said that the Aston Vantage safety car can take the corners faster than the AMG
All just my opinion, of course.
Edited by LTP on Wednesday 12th May 13:56
Maybe this new painting plan solves the paint bubbling and quality issues a number of people have had.
Honestly, the facility in Wales seems like a waste of money. No idea how they justified the expense of building that when Gaydon has plenty of room. Just upgrade Gaydon if needed, not build a new factory hundreds of miles away. The last thing a small niche manufacturer needs is a multitude of facilities that raise fixed costs.
Honestly, the facility in Wales seems like a waste of money. No idea how they justified the expense of building that when Gaydon has plenty of room. Just upgrade Gaydon if needed, not build a new factory hundreds of miles away. The last thing a small niche manufacturer needs is a multitude of facilities that raise fixed costs.
Jon39 said:
Lagonda's history (which includes racing) is longer than Aston Martin. Respected makers of luxurious 4 door cars.
And perhaps less well recognised but Lagonda have won Le Mans outright as many times as Aston Martin i.e. once and offered a V12 in their range 60 years before the first Aston V12.
I suspect costs are lower in wales - and the equipment is now newer.
If you had to centralise facilities - and talent pool challenges were equal (ie experienced car assembly talent is probably a bigger pool in Birmingham than Wales) it probably would not be Birmingham.
I can see the merit that Birmingham becomes electrification and r&d
If you had to centralise facilities - and talent pool challenges were equal (ie experienced car assembly talent is probably a bigger pool in Birmingham than Wales) it probably would not be Birmingham.
I can see the merit that Birmingham becomes electrification and r&d
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