Gone very quiet

[Mr Whippy]

egor110 said:

Louis Balfour said:

egor110 said:

Business is bombing in farm machinery.

We've got more work coming in than engineers.

In our locality one dealer is £100 hour labour were £75.

Covid era machinery purchases are now turning up plus we've had to book 50 build slots so that's all turning up as well.

Now, have a think. Is business bombing or booming? The two situations are diametrically opposite.

Very much booming.

Given what we’re seeing, I think supply issues are causing increased uk demand and pushing prices higher.

Thus farmers are a bit flush with cash.

How this’ll pan out when import supplies find their feet again, and uk prices can’t come back down due to sticky inflation and higher labour costs…

Hmmmm

[loafer123]

WyrleyD said:

Any house builders on here can confirm the situation with new builds?

I'm loosely involved with a company undertaking tiling for new builds in the NE up to Scottish Border and there appears to be a large drop-off in the sq metres laid since January 1st, the number of sites has gone up (individual plots) compared to the same period last year but it appears that the developers are only pushing the affordable house completions where the sq/m is about 2/3rds to half of a normal sale house and also only requesting the tiling laid once the plot is a confirmed sale, this is across all the major developers. The forward order book is healthy but there are increasing delays in requests to do the tiling on the higher value houses and this is having a large impact on cash flow plus the fact that the developers are holding back the payment of invoices for completed works for anything up to 90 days even though the terms are 30 days (mainly one large developer) and the rest are 40-60 days.

The house builder I’m involved in is on project hold until Q3.

With another hat on, having done a lot of distress/insolvency work, you need to pursue the 90 day debt hard…

[egor110]

Mr Whippy said:

egor110 said:

Louis Balfour said:

egor110 said:

Business is bombing in farm machinery.

We've got more work coming in than engineers.

In our locality one dealer is £100 hour labour were £75.

Covid era machinery purchases are now turning up plus we've had to book 50 build slots so that's all turning up as well.

Now, have a think. Is business bombing or booming? The two situations are diametrically opposite.

Very much booming.

Given what we’re seeing, I think supply issues are causing increased uk demand and pushing prices higher.

Thus farmers are a bit flush with cash.

How this’ll pan out when import supplies find their feet again, and uk prices can’t come back down due to sticky inflation and higher labour costs…

Hmmmm

It's not that , they run there machines based on working hours.

Once they hit a certain amount the trade in value drops massively , we've got contractors that change every year.

Ultimately farmers need this machinery to exist plus if they didn't buy new shiny stuff it would go on tax.

[M1AGM]

Mr Whippy said:

Given what we’re seeing, I think supply issues are causing increased uk demand and pushing prices higher.

Thus farmers are a bit flush with cash.

How this’ll pan out when import supplies find their feet again, and uk prices can’t come back down due to sticky inflation and higher labour costs…

Hmmmm

I always seem to hear stories about farmers being almost broke or going bust.

[skwdenyer]

M1AGM said:

Mr Whippy said:

Given what we’re seeing, I think supply issues are causing increased uk demand and pushing prices higher.

Thus farmers are a bit flush with cash.

How this’ll pan out when import supplies find their feet again, and uk prices can’t come back down due to sticky inflation and higher labour costs…

Hmmmm

I always seem to hear stories about farmers being almost broke or going bust.

"Farmers" are not a uniform group. Many can be broke / going bust at the same time as some others can be flush with cash.

[105.4]

President Merkin said:

February started strong & fell off a cliff. Ended up about 50% down yoy. We are canvassing hard for work right now but so is everyone else. Our sector is a bellwether for UK retail so lots of long faces around the industry right now.

May I ask what your sector is?

[Regy53]

Used plant sales checking in

I follow economic data quite a lot, curiously as I’m a money man following data seems smart. Yet there is something going on where I cannot join the dots together at all

Google recession 2 months ago and it was doom and gloom. Google it today and it’s about how we’re going to avoid it , however I don’t see that anywhere , we have had a few months of weird economic news data ( non farm payrolls etc) but it really feels like the screws are turning now and this thread is a fair indicator of it.

We have been fairly busy but it’s getting quieter, we down from 28 machines due out most of the time to around 10-15 .

A huge auction company that had a record 700 excavators for sale in august last year is having another auction and this time it’s 970 and counting. Infact they held 4 auctions between august and now just not with them numbers .
The diggers are put in from slowing construction firms, one man bands and more specifically civil engineering firms doing housing Groundworks which checking right move the sector seems to be aggressively slowing from 500 k upward, which means the guy selling his 300 k house isn’t selling and the 200k houses are also not selling to first time buyers

But as I say I can’t join the dots. Some places like retail look very busy still, i keep saying it but there’s a weird feel about it all

[ashleyman]

My barber just put prices up to £26.50. Shame it’s the only place round here that actually does a good cut. I could go near work in London but probably looking at double at least. Their excuse was they had to go VAT registered.

[Louis Balfour]

ashleyman said:

My barber just put prices up to £26.50. Shame it’s the only place round here that actually does a good cut. I could go near work in London but probably looking at double at least. Their excuse was they had to go VAT registered.

I've been thinking about the VAT threshold (that's the sort of fun guy I am). I am assuming that small businesses are allowed not to charge it, to give them a leg up and avoid the burden of administration. But it's a bit of a cliff to climb, when the time arrives.

[loafer123]

ashleyman said:

My barber just put prices up to £26.50. Shame it’s the only place round here that actually does a good cut. I could go near work in London but probably looking at double at least. Their excuse was they had to go VAT registered.

That’s crazy. I pay £13 in a nice town in the SE.

[Dylano]

loafer123 said:

ashleyman said:

My barber just put prices up to £26.50. Shame it’s the only place round here that actually does a good cut. I could go near work in London but probably looking at double at least. Their excuse was they had to go VAT registered.

That’s crazy. I pay £13 in a nice town in the SE.

That's crazy. I've cut my own hair for the last 20 years, and not just an all over buzz cut either, shortish back and sides using scissors.

It's really not that difficult to keep it looking reasonable especially if you just do it little and often rather than allowing it to get too out of hand.

[kiethton]

loafer123 said:

ashleyman said:

My barber just put prices up to £26.50. Shame it’s the only place round here that actually does a good cut. I could go near work in London but probably looking at double at least. Their excuse was they had to go VAT registered.

That’s crazy. I pay £13 in a nice town in the SE.

Same, well £14 a cut in zone 5.....

The barber local to the office (Bank/Liverpool Street) is £57.50 for a cut

[ashleyman]

loafer123 said:

ashleyman said:

My barber just put prices up to £26.50. Shame it’s the only place round here that actually does a good cut. I could go near work in London but probably looking at double at least. Their excuse was they had to go VAT registered.

That’s crazy. I pay £13 in a nice town in the SE.

Even the last town I lived in was £19 at the local Turkish place. I don’t know anywhere that would be £13 now.

[President Merkin]

105.4 said:

May I ask what your sector is?

Primary logistics. From factory to warehouse.

[Frimley111R]

Louis Balfour said:

ashleyman said:

My barber just put prices up to £26.50. Shame it’s the only place round here that actually does a good cut. I could go near work in London but probably looking at double at least. Their excuse was they had to go VAT registered.

I've been thinking about the VAT threshold (that's the sort of fun guy I am). I am assuming that small businesses are allowed not to charge it, to give them a leg up and avoid the burden of administration. But it's a bit of a cliff to climb, when the time arrives.

It is/was for me. In one business our product was a nice £3495 and the next thing it was over £4200. For domestic customers, £3495 didn't sound too bad but £4200 felt like it was bit close to £5000. We definitely saw a drop off in sales as a result.

With EV chargers a £999 install is £1200 with VAT. Lots of one-man-bands are not VAT registered and so we lose out. £200 is a big difference on a thousand pounds. Customer pays £200 more and gets nothing extra for that and neither do we. Luckily this doesn't matter to our commercial clients but it's a bit of a killer on domestic sales.

[Sheepshanks]

Frimley111R said:

It is/was for me. In one business our product was a nice £3495 and the next thing it was over £4200. For domestic customers, £3495 didn't sound too bad but £4200 felt like it was bit close to £5000. We definitely saw a drop off in sales as a result.

With EV chargers a £999 install is £1200 with VAT. Lots of one-man-bands are not VAT registered and so we lose out. £200 is a big difference on a thousand pounds. Customer pays £200 more and gets nothing extra for that and neither do we. Luckily this doesn't matter to our commercial clients but it's a bit of a killer on domestic sales.

..but you'd gain something by being able to recover the VAT on the material costs. OK, it wouldn't wipe out the difference but surely it's more complicated than simply adding 20% to your current (no pun intended) price? Trickier for a barber though.


Having said that, we've just had a biggush extension and the VAT was horrible. It's become a topic of conversation with people locally whio have looked at extensions and thought the cost was OK, then realised (and not always early on in the process) that there's VAT on top and it kills the whole plan.

[jammy-git]

ashleyman said:

loafer123 said:

ashleyman said:

My barber just put prices up to £26.50. Shame it’s the only place round here that actually does a good cut. I could go near work in London but probably looking at double at least. Their excuse was they had to go VAT registered.

That’s crazy. I pay £13 in a nice town in the SE.

Even the last town I lived in was £19 at the local Turkish place. I don’t know anywhere that would be £13 now.

£12 here in Canterbury!

[Mr Whippy]

egor110 said:

Mr Whippy said:

egor110 said:

Louis Balfour said:

egor110 said:

Business is bombing in farm machinery.

We've got more work coming in than engineers.

In our locality one dealer is £100 hour labour were £75.

Covid era machinery purchases are now turning up plus we've had to book 50 build slots so that's all turning up as well.

Now, have a think. Is business bombing or booming? The two situations are diametrically opposite.

Very much booming.

Given what we’re seeing, I think supply issues are causing increased uk demand and pushing prices higher.

Thus farmers are a bit flush with cash.

How this’ll pan out when import supplies find their feet again, and uk prices can’t come back down due to sticky inflation and higher labour costs…

Hmmmm

It's not that , they run there machines based on working hours.

Once they hit a certain amount the trade in value drops massively , we've got contractors that change every year.

Ultimately farmers need this machinery to exist plus if they didn't buy new shiny stuff it would go on tax.

But every hour brings them closer to that value drop, so any hours is bad news surely?
Who buys them and runs them off that value cliff?

Thus it encourages buying new on finance.
But it can’t be essential.
A 10 year old tractor is still just as good as a new one, sans some maintenance… you just need the capital to buy it.


But yes, farmers flush, would rather buy stuff new to ‘save’ on tax than pay tax and have more disposable income.
The logic is, umm, completely and utterly fallible.
It’s like a competition how little tax they can pay, but not how much ROI they actually create.

[Mr Whippy]

M1AGM said:

Mr Whippy said:

Given what we’re seeing, I think supply issues are causing increased uk demand and pushing prices higher.

Thus farmers are a bit flush with cash.

How this’ll pan out when import supplies find their feet again, and uk prices can’t come back down due to sticky inflation and higher labour costs…

Hmmmm

I always seem to hear stories about farmers being almost broke or going bust.

Renters vs owners?

All the owner farmers I know have tons of money.

The renters are usually impoverished and run lean efficient farms.


OK they might have cash flow issues in the former case, but they’re generally very wealthy.

[M1AGM]

Mr Whippy said:

M1AGM said:

Mr Whippy said:

Given what we’re seeing, I think supply issues are causing increased uk demand and pushing prices higher.

Thus farmers are a bit flush with cash.

How this’ll pan out when import supplies find their feet again, and uk prices can’t come back down due to sticky inflation and higher labour costs…

Hmmmm

I always seem to hear stories about farmers being almost broke or going bust.

Renters vs owners?

All the owner farmers I know have tons of money.

The renters are usually impoverished and run lean efficient farms.


OK they might have cash flow issues in the former case, but they’re generally very wealthy.

Interesting. I thought it would come down to more specific areas of farming i.e. dairy/sheep/crops etc.