Gone very quiet

Author
Discussion

LuckyThirteen

133 posts

6 months

Thursday 9th March
quotequote all
Fall-through refers to where a sal has been agreed but the buyers pull out.

Reasons are multiple. Could be mortgage affordability, could be all manner of things.

Mr Whippy

26,672 posts

228 months

Thursday 9th March
quotequote all
skwdenyer said:
Wilmslowboy said:
Interest payments on government borrowing likely to top £80b this year, compared to around £20b 10 years ago…that’s about an extra £3k per household in interest payment alone (increase over the last 10 years).
That’s what happens when the Govt issues fully 25% of national debt as index-linked (unlike any other major economy)…
So inflation won’t burn it away… handy hehe

105.4

2,855 posts

58 months

Thursday 9th March
quotequote all
LuckyThirteen said:
Fall-through refers to where a sal has been agreed but the buyers pull out.

Reasons are multiple. Could be mortgage affordability, could be all manner of things.
Thanks for the clarification thumbup

Frimley111R

14,064 posts

221 months

Thursday 9th March
quotequote all
jammy-git said:
Was involved in a slack conversation yesterday on a digital agency owners group, around a dozen agency owners all saying that cold leads (inbound calls and leads through website, etc) are pretty much non-existent. Even referrals and warm/hot leads are few and far between and those that do exist are taking 2-3x minimum usual time to convert to sale.

Lots of lots of companies across a wide range of sectors just not willing to commit to spending anything right now.

We saw a similar dip in March/April last year. Seems it started in early Feb for most agencies this year and I suspect it'll go on until at least late April.
I manage our marketing and when the things you do no longer generate leads, or very few at least, it's hard to commit more funds. You're essentially throwing good money after bad. If the markets just aren't there you're a bit stuck unless you have a pipeline (which thankfully we do) or you're diversified in your offering (which we also are).

I'd agree with April but maybe May/June as things rarely improve quickly.

skwdenyer

13,876 posts

227 months

Thursday 9th March
quotequote all
LuckyThirteen said:
House completions right now have fallen off the edge of a cliff.

Pondering the fall-through rates. Suspect very high.
I've probably missed it along the way, but are you in estate agency or somewhere else in the property chain?

LuckyThirteen

133 posts

6 months

Thursday 9th March
quotequote all
Home Moving and storage.
At peak @1700 moves per year (to give you an idea of scale)

Dylano

122 posts

2 months

Thursday 9th March
quotequote all
LuckyThirteen said:
Home Moving and storage.
At peak @1700 moves per year (to give you an idea of scale)
For comparison what are current move rates at?

Apologies if you've already gave the figure, I may have missed it.

LuckyThirteen

133 posts

6 months

Thursday 9th March
quotequote all
Depends where in the market you operate.

Average size move (subjective but I've surveyed more than 37000 of them) at the top end of the scale can be £1200-1500.

Then come down the quality scale and it's half that at the bottom.

Essentially you have the regulated professional firms operating salaried employees at the top.

Unregulated, cash in hand and high on coke at the bottom who often sell details of your home, possessions and contents to those who may wish to steal from you later.

ben5575

5,414 posts

208 months

Thursday 9th March
quotequote all
I think he meant if it was 1700pa, what is it now?

LuckyThirteen

133 posts

6 months

Thursday 9th March
quotequote all
March isn't done, but I will be surprised if we'll do more than 35% what we did last year.

Jan and Feb were way down but very expected.

In terms of new customer enquiries if you take the Feb numbers and March projected numbers somewhere @late April/May we'll be at Feb 2009 levels of (lack of) activity.

Regy53

207 posts

118 months

Friday 10th March
quotequote all
Interesting, I follow right move from way 600k ( current house value to 1.5m in Northamptonshire, the upper level being a potential budget and a lot of sticky houses seemingly have sold on last few weeks. How much for I have no idea

jammy-git

29,357 posts

199 months

Friday 10th March
quotequote all
Sold, or taken off the market?

President Merkin

532 posts

6 months

Saturday 11th March
quotequote all
Long chat with a sales director at an FSDU company yesterday. FSDU's - Free standing display units - a catch all term for promotional displays used by retailers & manufacturers. The format is usually a cardboard unit on a pallet or a dolly, pre-filled with product & delivered as a finished unit to be wheeled out onto the shop floor. May sound trivial in the scheme of things but they are big business & a key part of the retail marketing mix. General sentiment is a downgrading of sales forecasts until Q3 2023, lots of belt tightening, cost cutting etc. I serve a few companies in this space & they're singing from the same hymn sheet right now.

Regy53

207 posts

118 months

Saturday 11th March
quotequote all
jammy-git said:
Sold, or taken off the market?
Showing as under offer on RM


dirky dirk

2,756 posts

157 months

Thursday 16th March
quotequote all
Freight forwarder
Quieter across all modes and imports and exports

Using the time to train up staff and audit ourselves and processes

President Merkin

532 posts

6 months

Thursday 16th March
quotequote all
dirky dirk said:
Freight forwarder
Quieter across all modes and imports and exports
Same and same.

105.4

2,855 posts

58 months

Friday 17th March
quotequote all
Just looking at my numbers from February to mid-March last year compared to this this year, and erm……

I’m up around 12.5-15% confused

Early February was quiet, with a couple of really, really quiet days, but since then I’ve been noticeably busier than normal.

It’s not just specifically me and my rounds. Our entire depot is up on volume.

I had a quick fag break with the competition yesterday, (the Amazon guy). He was saying that he’s pretty busy too.

The car park of the retail park that I deliver to is always quite full. The Manageress of one of the High Street stores that I deliver ‘click & collects’ to on there was saying that she’s up on her forecasts.

In a way, this is bad. I Have 101 jobs to do at home, and no time to do them.

On the other hand, the more volume I shift, the more I earn.

Oh well, back at it for another 12-13 hour day.

Phooey

12,192 posts

156 months

Friday 17th March
quotequote all
105.4 said:
Just looking at my numbers from February to mid-March last year compared to this this year, and erm……

I’m up around 12.5-15% confused

Early February was quiet, with a couple of really, really quiet days, but since then I’ve been noticeably busier than normal.

It’s not just specifically me and my rounds. Our entire depot is up on volume.

I had a quick fag break with the competition yesterday, (the Amazon guy). He was saying that he’s pretty busy too.

The car park of the retail park that I deliver to is always quite full. The Manageress of one of the High Street stores that I deliver ‘click & collects’ to on there was saying that she’s up on her forecasts.

In a way, this is bad. I Have 101 jobs to do at home, and no time to do them.

On the other hand, the more volume I shift, the more I earn.

Oh well, back at it for another 12-13 hour day.
Always interesting to hear, thank you. I'd certainly be interested to hear how the next few weeks are for you - a lot of online retail guys I know are pulling their hair out saying it is soooo quiet. Jan/Feb was better than most thought it would be, but March, so far, has been absolutely diabolical.


DSLiverpool

14,088 posts

189 months

Friday 17th March
quotequote all
105.4 you’re busy as your contracts have won business from RM, a combination of aggressive pricing and RM strike action.

ECommerce software managers that allocates orders to shipping services would confirm this if i had access to the info.

loafer123

14,806 posts

202 months

Friday 17th March
quotequote all

Online retail business…terrible (like 2018 terrible) February, but sales back up this month and moving in the right direction.