Gone very quiet

[lornemalvo]

105.4 said:

lornemalvo said:

Interesting, what service do you provide?

Courier. A subby for one of the well known carriers.

An average load on my van would be split something like 10-15% click & collect orders for a couple of well known High Street stores.

10% medication.

10-15% eBay, (it could be anything in those parcels).

60-70% fashion, soft furnishings and small furniture, (bed side tables etc).

That's very interesting, seems like a useful way to monitor trends at different levels and who is struggling.

[105.4]

lornemalvo said:

That's very interesting, seems like a useful way to monitor trends at different levels and who is struggling.

My thoughts exactly.

[Sheepshanks]

lornemalvo said:

That's very interesting, seems like a useful way to monitor trends at different levels and who is struggling.

There a global version of this, the Pitney Bowes Parcel Shipping Index, but of course it’s not quite so up to date as the info being posted here!

I’m sure I’ve seen comments from the US about tracking volumes of couriers as a market health indicator - maybe it was FedEx or something like that.

[Frimley111R]

Flooble said:

105.4 said:

Turn7 said:

They didnt become millionaires by spunking cash on chinese shyte from the 'Zon every 12 minutes... ?

You’d think so, but the Wives still order copious amounts from Pretty Little Thing / BooHoo, Next, ASOS etc.

Which is, in the good times, a dirt cheap way to keep her happy. Those are not expensive stores (by and large). For someone with 4-5K coming in per month (which is probably the bottom end of "millionaires row"), a few hundred on disposable fashion is no worse than a meal out or two.

In the bad times, it's easy enough to turn off that tap.

Yep, people who are good with money aren't the ones struggling with it.

[Phooey]

105.4 said:

Two very quiet days for me.

As I’ve explained before, my rounds are spread over three different areas.

Area 1; Quite poor
Area 2; Solidly working class
Area 3; Millionaires Row.

I’ve seen the biggest dip in my ‘Millionaires Row’ round, (dropped by around 50%).

Which then begs the question why? Why have I seen the biggest reduction in custom in this one specific area?

It isn’t school holidays, so it isn’t like most customers have gone away.

Are the people who live in this area more clued up, more savvy, can see the storm coming so are cutting back in preparation? Or are they already stretched to the brink as it is trying to keep up with the Jones’s?

I’m expecting to see a brief flurry over the Bank Holiday / Jubilee weekend, then for things on all three rounds to plummet.

Just spoken with my Royal Mail collections guy (30yrs service) and he said exactly the same as you - he does deliveries in the mornings and overall he is massively down on parcels, especially this past few weeks, but what was interesting was he said the drop in volume to the bigger properties / wealthier streets is the most noticeable. The "council houses" are just carrying on ordering stuff, albeit a bit down on volume but nowhere near as much as the wealthier households. He's see this same pattern with previous downturns - it's a well known pattern in the business apparently.

I also spoke with a DPD guy yesterday - he was relatively new to the job so didn't really know or have much to divulge.. but he did say the workforce have just had a meeting to discuss losing their number 1 slot in courier companies

[egor110]

Re royal mail the parcels are down because there are no more free test kits.

The last 2 years people have been ordering test kits as if it's a competition to see which property can receive the most in a week.

[105.4]

Phooey said:

Just spoken with my Royal Mail collections guy (30yrs service) and he said exactly the same as you - he does deliveries in the mornings and overall he is massively down on parcels, especially this past few weeks, but what was interesting was he said the drop in volume to the bigger properties / wealthier streets is the most noticeable. The "council houses" are just carrying on ordering stuff, albeit a bit down on volume but nowhere near as much as the wealthier households. He's see this same pattern with previous downturns - it's a well known pattern in the business apparently.

I also spoke with a DPD guy yesterday - he was relatively new to the job so didn't really know or have much to divulge.. but he did say the workforce have just had a meeting to discuss losing their number 1 slot in courier companies

That’s interesting to know, especially to see how other areas in others parts of the country are doing and how it compares to my experiences.

Cheers for posting that

[Frimley111R]

Phooey said:

I also spoke with a DPD guy yesterday - he was relatively new to the job so didn't really know or have much to divulge.. but he did say the workforce have just had a meeting to discuss losing their number 1 slot in courier companies

To RM?

[DSLiverpool]

Across 3 furniture (garden / internal) importers they are all in the st. Huge pre orders placed up to a year ago while we were booming is arriving now as demand slumps.

Anyone got a miracle solution I’m all ears

[Sheepshanks]

DSLiverpool said:

Across 3 furniture (garden / internal) importers they are all in the st. Huge pre orders placed up to a year ago while we were booming is arriving now as demand slumps.

Anyone got a miracle solution I’m all ears

Ah - that explains why a "garden furniture sale" board has appeared outside our local posh garden centre. I was most surprised given the time of year.

The women go there for coffee / lunch and we've noticed the car park hasn't been as rammed as it usually is.

[jammy-git]

Good to know there should be some cracking deals on garden furniture. I need some stuff for my terrace!

[Tyre Smoke]

I need another of rose picnic bench things. Mine has seen better days and was only £55 from B+Q.

I see replacements are circa £300 now. Which is a pisstake to be honest.

[Phooey]

DSLiverpool said:

Across 3 furniture (garden / internal) importers they are all in the st. Huge pre orders placed up to a year ago while we were booming is arriving now as demand slumps.

Anyone got a miracle solution I’m all ears

I think there’s going to be plenty of similar business in the same boat sadly.

Long time ago but I used to know the guys who did one/two-day sales in venues like town halls, function rooms etc with teak and rattan furniture. He used to share the venue/costs with another chap who did rug sales. They brought the stock in their 7.5 tonne wagon and a Luton transit van. Blitzed the town with signs and advertised in local media (it was before social media). They did this once a month and had a flyer with all their dates and venues for the next 12 months or so. Free delivery in local area using Luton van. They had a good following but to be fair there stuff was quite good quality - no cheap ikea type stuff. I used to do similar to the above but with a different product. I can tell you now business was more enjoyable then than it is today doing online selling.


I’m not saying the above would be easy today with reduced footfall in towny areas but with a bit of thinking outside the box…

Edited by Phooey on Saturday 28th May 12:01

[singlecoil]

I think the town hall thing has been done to double death and back again. Whenever I see those signs I immediately think that they are selling stuff like that and in that manner because once the problems with the stuff are discovered the sellers will be long gone.

At least buying online through eBay, Amazon etc the buyers have got some comeback.

[105.4]

Out of curiosity, does anyone know how the likes of Euro Car Parts, GSF and other car parts suppliers are doing?

[Pflanzgarten]

The amount of profiteering on garden furniture in the last two years has been outrageous to be fair. Our set was £1600 in 2019 when we remodelled the garden, just checked and with a 10% off sale it's currently £3800.

I know the containers from China have gone up a lot but not that much.

[Traffic]

Was out in our local town here on the west coast of Sweden today so (EU) but it struck me how busy everything was, everyone out, all the shopping places full and car parks full.

Maybe we didn't screw things up thanks to no lock-downs? or Sweden is yet to witness the ststorm.

We are highly dependent on imports and have high unemployment. but it's also impossible to hire here right now so it's plain weird±±

[jammy-git]

Traffic said:

Was out in our local town here on the west coast of Sweden today so (EU) but it struck me how busy everything was, everyone out, all the shopping places full and car parks full.

Maybe we didn't screw things up thanks to no lock-downs? or Sweden is yet to witness the ststorm.

We are highly dependent on imports and have high unemployment. but it's also impossible to hire here right now so it's plain weird

We're in a similar position in the UK. Towns are still busy - Canterbury was pretty packed today, plenty of people shopping. I know companies that are still hiring. Some who were hiring aren't any more. Not many I know of that are letting people go. Technically unemployment in the UK is low. But taking to other businesses, there's a lot of concern about what is coming. It just doesn't seem to have filtered down to consumers too much yet.

[JCKST1]

I think one of the main problems for businesses is a lot of them (in my opinion, stupidly) thought that the COVID boom would last for ever, I know plenty of companies who moved to units 2-3 times bigger, stocked them selves up to the eye balls, took on new products & brands, new company vans etc etc and now things have reverted back to what they were or even worse there stuck with these huge overheads plus BBL's and god knows what else.

We could have quite easily done the same but I intentionally held back, we sold what we had and didn't go over the top in projections/ordering so although sales are down we can manage it, if we had double/trebled our rent, plus all the other luxuries people took on we would be under now.

I hope as many companies as possible can come out of it but I think the next 12-24 months will be rough for most trades and in some cases people have set themselves up to fail!

[Sheepshanks]

Traffic said:

Was out in our local town here on the west coast of Sweden today so (EU) but it struck me how busy everything was, everyone out, all the shopping places full and car parks full.

Maybe we didn't screw things up thanks to no lock-downs? or Sweden is yet to witness the ststorm.

We are highly dependent on imports and have high unemployment. but it's also impossible to hire here right now so it's plain weird

Has Sweden been suffering soaring fuel - petrol / diesel, gas and electricity costs?