Gone very quiet
Discussion
r3g said:
... and 2. the rapid rise in living costs/fears of deep recession causing "average" people to sit tight and see how things pan out in the economy before shelling out £5-10k to upgrade their 10 year old Focus. I also think the pool of "average" people who have thousands sitting in the bank to actually fund it outright is likely to be quite small, and with credit having become more expensive recently with stricter lending criteria, that is only going to add to the market weakness.
I'd guess most of us are in the mid category. We're pretty well off (in an average way) and although money isn't an issue the negative news does put me off spending. Our BMW 2016 120d is a great car, does everything we need. Do I want to spend £5k and £500 a month on a Tesla? Yes but I'm not going to. I'll wait until the storm (if it comes) is over. So, there are people who are financially tight in the mid sector plus those, like me, who are just going to be a bit careful and have no need to spend right now until things settle.Frimley111R said:
I'd guess most of us are in the mid category. We're pretty well off (in an average way) and although money isn't an issue the negative news does put me off spending. Our BMW 2016 120d is a great car, does everything we need. Do I want to spend £5k and £500 a month on a Tesla? Yes but I'm not going to. I'll wait until the storm (if it comes) is over. So, there are people who are financially tight in the mid sector plus those, like me, who are just going to be a bit careful and have no need to spend right now until things settle.
Indeed. I'm in the lucky position to not really be affected by the current big issues facing the country, and like a number of my clients too, will hold fire because why overpay when you don't need to?AlvinSultana said:
My revenues are down by more than 30%.
The morning emails which tell me the previous days stats are a horror show.
I have access to the stats for others in the same industry and it is the same story.
After 2 years of record revenues and profits throughout the pandemic the situation is very sobering.
Unfortunately this is only the preamble. Consumers cutting non essential spending in preparation for tough times.
In my opinion the real pain of the perfect storm is yet to come. Winter is coming.
Hugely informative post... although it might be a bit more useful if we knew whether you were a coal merchant or a digital marketing manager?The morning emails which tell me the previous days stats are a horror show.
I have access to the stats for others in the same industry and it is the same story.
After 2 years of record revenues and profits throughout the pandemic the situation is very sobering.
Unfortunately this is only the preamble. Consumers cutting non essential spending in preparation for tough times.
In my opinion the real pain of the perfect storm is yet to come. Winter is coming.
DSLiverpool said:
I was with a fulfillment centre yesterday and they cover everything from fitness to household throughout Europe and beyond.
No drop off reported in fact companies that stopped exporting are now dipping a toe back in.
It appears the UK will be more greatly affected than some other European countries though, so perhaps that would mask things somewhat?No drop off reported in fact companies that stopped exporting are now dipping a toe back in.
Since the pandemic our taxi business has shifted in what we do. In 2019 I took the decision to get more contract work (hospitals, schools) and that has carried us through well. In fact our business model is now pretty much Monday to Friday 9-5. There is no financial sense in weekend working.
What is crippling us is the fuel costs. Fuel now costs more than our wage bill each month. And because the contracts are at a fixed price our margins have been squeezed to non existing. There's a sniff that we might get an uplift in contract revenue, but nothing is certain.
I feel very sorry for the local one man band with his E Class Merc costing £130/week for the next five years and nobody going anywhere. They're working 80/90 hour weeks to tread water at the moment.
What is crippling us is the fuel costs. Fuel now costs more than our wage bill each month. And because the contracts are at a fixed price our margins have been squeezed to non existing. There's a sniff that we might get an uplift in contract revenue, but nothing is certain.
I feel very sorry for the local one man band with his E Class Merc costing £130/week for the next five years and nobody going anywhere. They're working 80/90 hour weeks to tread water at the moment.
Tyre Smoke said:
What is crippling us is the fuel costs. Fuel now costs more than our wage bill each month. And because the contracts are at a fixed price our margins have been squeezed to non existing. There's a sniff that we might get an uplift in contract revenue, but nothing is certain.
I feel very sorry for the local one man band with his E Class Merc costing £130/week for the next five years and nobody going anywhere. They're working 80/90 hour weeks to tread water at the moment.
I’ve taken about a 12% pay cut over the last couple of months, based purely upon increased fuel costs.I feel very sorry for the local one man band with his E Class Merc costing £130/week for the next five years and nobody going anywhere. They're working 80/90 hour weeks to tread water at the moment.
I usually don’t like dropping below 1/2 tank, but I let the van run right down yesterday to having the last gallon light on.
When I filled up it was £98
It’s only a little Renault Kangoo !I anticipate £2.00+ a litre by the time schools break up in a months time.
Edited by 105.4 on Saturday 25th June 09:45
105.4 said:
Tyre Smoke said:
What is crippling us is the fuel costs. Fuel now costs more than our wage bill each month. And because the contracts are at a fixed price our margins have been squeezed to non existing. There's a sniff that we might get an uplift in contract revenue, but nothing is certain.
I feel very sorry for the local one man band with his E Class Merc costing £130/week for the next five years and nobody going anywhere. They're working 80/90 hour weeks to tread water at the moment.
I’ve taken about a 12% pay cut over the last couple of months, based purely upon increased fuel costs.I feel very sorry for the local one man band with his E Class Merc costing £130/week for the next five years and nobody going anywhere. They're working 80/90 hour weeks to tread water at the moment.
I usually don’t like dropping below 1/2 tank, but I let the van run right down yesterday to having the last gallon light on.
When I filled up it was £98
It’s only a little Renault Kangoo !I anticipate £2.00+ a litre by the time schools break up in a months time.
Edited by 105.4 on Saturday 25th June 09:45
Sheepshanks said:
skwdenyer said:
Why?
The comment was about inspections by a BCO - there’s a number of those for each build, and there’s quite a long lead time into the build, and it takes a while to complete.Unless large numbers of people are putting work on hold mid-way through then it doesn’t make sense that inspections would suddenly stop.
You only have to look at the number of posts on here about people putting extensions on hold back in Nov-Feb due to builders/subbies/suppliers taking the absolute piss. 6 months later the reality of those decisions has now filtered through. Extensions are small quick builds so the lead/build time is relatively short meaning a very quick impact.
What I hope the contractors/subbies/suppliers have realised, is that the developers like me (c.£100m on site), the clients/funders/banks/investors are just as human as the people not doing their extensions.
We all stopped our new schemes in Feb/Mar. If you think it's beginning to get bad now, wait for all of our decisions hit the market in Oct/Jan. Our 'tanker' sized schemes take longer to slow down and then start up again.
But I'm reasonably optimistic that prices will fall back sharply around Oct (it's us now, rather than the subbies who are only prepared to fix prices for 6 months which is quite the turn around) and activity will kick back again. As I hope will apply equally to the inflation spike.
If you're in the sector, I just hope you've been friendly and loyal to your Clients. We have long memories.
ben5575 said:
It makes perfect sense.
You only have to look at the number of posts on here about people putting extensions on hold back in Nov-Feb due to builders/subbies/suppliers taking the absolute piss. 6 months later the reality of those decisions has now filtered through. Extensions are small quick builds so the lead/build time is relatively short meaning a very quick impact.
What I hope the contractors/subbies/suppliers have realised, is that the developers like me (c.£100m on site), the clients/funders/banks/investors are just as human as the people not doing their extensions.
We all stopped our new schemes in Feb/Mar. If you think it's beginning to get bad now, wait for all of our decisions hit the market in Oct/Jan. Our 'tanker' sized schemes take longer to slow down and then start up again.
But I'm reasonably optimistic that prices will fall back sharply around Oct (it's us now, rather than the subbies who are only prepared to fix prices for 6 months which is quite the turn around) and activity will kick back again. As I hope will apply equally to the inflation spike.
If you're in the sector, I just hope you've been friendly and loyal to your Clients. We have long memories.
May I ask you Ben, (and others if they wish to join in), what do you expect to happen to the housing market over the next 6-12 months?You only have to look at the number of posts on here about people putting extensions on hold back in Nov-Feb due to builders/subbies/suppliers taking the absolute piss. 6 months later the reality of those decisions has now filtered through. Extensions are small quick builds so the lead/build time is relatively short meaning a very quick impact.
What I hope the contractors/subbies/suppliers have realised, is that the developers like me (c.£100m on site), the clients/funders/banks/investors are just as human as the people not doing their extensions.
We all stopped our new schemes in Feb/Mar. If you think it's beginning to get bad now, wait for all of our decisions hit the market in Oct/Jan. Our 'tanker' sized schemes take longer to slow down and then start up again.
But I'm reasonably optimistic that prices will fall back sharply around Oct (it's us now, rather than the subbies who are only prepared to fix prices for 6 months which is quite the turn around) and activity will kick back again. As I hope will apply equally to the inflation spike.
If you're in the sector, I just hope you've been friendly and loyal to your Clients. We have long memories.
ben5575 said:
It makes perfect sense.
You only have to look at the number of posts on here about people putting extensions on hold back in Nov-Feb due to builders/subbies/suppliers taking the absolute piss. 6 months later the reality of those decisions has now filtered through. Extensions are small quick builds so the lead/build time is relatively short meaning a very quick impact.
What I hope the contractors/subbies/suppliers have realised, is that the developers like me (c.£100m on site), the clients/funders/banks/investors are just as human as the people not doing their extensions.
We all stopped our new schemes in Feb/Mar. If you think it's beginning to get bad now, wait for all of our decisions hit the market in Oct/Jan. Our 'tanker' sized schemes take longer to slow down and then start up again.
But I'm reasonably optimistic that prices will fall back sharply around Oct (it's us now, rather than the subbies who are only prepared to fix prices for 6 months which is quite the turn around) and activity will kick back again. As I hope will apply equally to the inflation spike.
If you're in the sector, I just hope you've been friendly and loyal to your Clients. We have long memories.
100% agree with this.You only have to look at the number of posts on here about people putting extensions on hold back in Nov-Feb due to builders/subbies/suppliers taking the absolute piss. 6 months later the reality of those decisions has now filtered through. Extensions are small quick builds so the lead/build time is relatively short meaning a very quick impact.
What I hope the contractors/subbies/suppliers have realised, is that the developers like me (c.£100m on site), the clients/funders/banks/investors are just as human as the people not doing their extensions.
We all stopped our new schemes in Feb/Mar. If you think it's beginning to get bad now, wait for all of our decisions hit the market in Oct/Jan. Our 'tanker' sized schemes take longer to slow down and then start up again.
But I'm reasonably optimistic that prices will fall back sharply around Oct (it's us now, rather than the subbies who are only prepared to fix prices for 6 months which is quite the turn around) and activity will kick back again. As I hope will apply equally to the inflation spike.
If you're in the sector, I just hope you've been friendly and loyal to your Clients. We have long memories.
Had a few conversations with various people this week about the state of play:
Conveyancer - the higher end resi stuff (£million+) still as busy as ever, everything else has slowed down in the last few weeks.
Bar/restaurant/hotel owner Whitby and Scarborough - still plenty of people on holibobs but noticeable drop in hospitality eat in and takeaway, more people self catering. Not optimistic about next season.
Prestige sports car company shareholder - has sold all his personal collection, thinks market is about to drop, a lot.
Conveyancer - the higher end resi stuff (£million+) still as busy as ever, everything else has slowed down in the last few weeks.
Bar/restaurant/hotel owner Whitby and Scarborough - still plenty of people on holibobs but noticeable drop in hospitality eat in and takeaway, more people self catering. Not optimistic about next season.
Prestige sports car company shareholder - has sold all his personal collection, thinks market is about to drop, a lot.
Retail here (Amazon). Sales had made a slight recovery the week after the Jubilee but have absolutely dropped off a cliff since last week. Royal Mail guy who collects our mail says the same - had picked up slightly but last week dead on parcels. Amazon driver on Friday said it's quieter than usual - no overspill in distribution centres. Mate who sells high end cars says still selling (people happy to pay over list price still) but usual problem of replacing stock. Houses (premium) around my way still selling fast. Everyone I speak to is going on holiday (overseas).
It's seems people are just prioritising what they spend their money on - rather than fill their shelves full of tat they are simply putting it all on high-ticket stuff.
It's seems people are just prioritising what they spend their money on - rather than fill their shelves full of tat they are simply putting it all on high-ticket stuff.
Sheepshanks said:
C Lee Farquar said:
We supply to the construction industry. This week a Local Building Control Officer said inspections of small domestic extensions had fallen off a cliff.
You could easily imagine activity slowly petering out, but seems unlikely it would fall off a cliff.He's hunkering down to get through the coming slump.
Phooey said:
Retail here (Amazon). Sales had made a slight recovery the week after the Jubilee but have absolutely dropped off a cliff since last week. Royal Mail guy who collects our mail says the same - had picked up slightly but last week dead on parcels. Amazon driver on Friday said it's quieter than usual - no overspill in distribution centres. Mate who sells high end cars says still selling (people happy to pay over list price still) but usual problem of replacing stock. Houses (premium) around my way still selling fast. Everyone I speak to is going on holiday (overseas).
It's seems people are just prioritising what they spend their money on - rather than fill their shelves full of tat they are simply putting it all on high-ticket stuff.
Ref Amazon are you on 360? Have you got deals scheduled? It's seems people are just prioritising what they spend their money on - rather than fill their shelves full of tat they are simply putting it all on high-ticket stuff.
It dropped off as soon as Prime day was announced right across the board from my view, sadly many sellers will ramp up marketing to unsustainable levels because it’s prime day and not see a tangible benefit.
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