Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?
Discussion
johnnyBv8 said:
You're repeatedly making a very basic point, so I don't think it's that people don't understand - it's that it's a point not particularly relevant to the discussion.
WBAC assigns a sum to the car (using 'sum' terminology so as not to send the discussion down a blind alley again!), which is based generally on their ability to sell it at BCA and the price they expect to achieve. Whether it's an initial valuation or an offer is irrelevant; the trends of the assigned sum, obtained in the same way each month, are a fairly consistent proxy of the used car market, hence its discussion on the forum.
WBAC assigns a sum to the car (using 'sum' terminology so as not to send the discussion down a blind alley again!), which is based generally on their ability to sell it at BCA and the price they expect to achieve. Whether it's an initial valuation or an offer is irrelevant; the trends of the assigned sum, obtained in the same way each month, are a fairly consistent proxy of the used car market, hence its discussion on the forum.
https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/used-cars/part-exchan...
This is quite an accurate site - based closely on CAP so a trader pal tells me.
This is quite an accurate site - based closely on CAP so a trader pal tells me.
andygo said:
https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/used-cars/part-exchan...
This is quite an accurate site - based closely on CAP so a trader pal tells me.
It’s based exactly off CAP. It just doesn’t give the retail figures or the previous book values etc that ‘proper’ CAP users can see.This is quite an accurate site - based closely on CAP so a trader pal tells me.
The Rotrex Kid said:
andygo said:
https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/used-cars/part-exchan...
This is quite an accurate site - based closely on CAP so a trader pal tells me.
It’s based exactly off CAP. It just doesn’t give the retail figures or the previous book values etc that ‘proper’ CAP users can see.This is quite an accurate site - based closely on CAP so a trader pal tells me.
My reaction to the vw valuation:
WBAC seem pretty much bang on with our car...
They're quoting £21,340
VW / CAP are coming in with
Estimated value of your BMW M140I SHADOW EDITION AUTO
Excellent condition *:
£22,550.00
Good condition *:
£21,650.00
Average condition *:
£20,800.00
From Autotrader, retail price is around £24K ish, so all seems reasonably well aligned.
They're quoting £21,340
VW / CAP are coming in with
Estimated value of your BMW M140I SHADOW EDITION AUTO
Excellent condition *:
£22,550.00
Good condition *:
£21,650.00
Average condition *:
£20,800.00
From Autotrader, retail price is around £24K ish, so all seems reasonably well aligned.
johnnyBv8 said:
You're repeatedly making a very basic point, so I don't think it's that people don't understand - it's that it's a point not particularly relevant to the discussion.
Of course it's relevant, you're only saying it isn't as you don't agree. It's relevant because it's about the validity of using WBAC's offer as a valuation. You can claim it's incorrect if you don't agree. To say it's not relevant suggests you don't understand the meaning of the word 'relevant'. Richard-D said:
Of course it's relevant, you're only saying it isn't as you don't agree. It's relevant because it's about the validity of using WBAC's offer as a valuation. You can claim it's incorrect if you don't agree. To say it's not relevant suggests you don't understand the meaning of the word 'relevant'.
What, in the context of WBAC, are you seeing as the difference between an offer and a valuation?If you describe the car accurately on their site, then they stand over that valuation. If they dont it will be based on plugging in their findings upon inspecting your car (kerbed alloy, scuff, etc) back in for a revised valuation.
What makes that an offer?
Edited by Deep Thought on Sunday 20th December 22:41
Richard-D said:
johnnyBv8 said:
You're repeatedly making a very basic point, so I don't think it's that people don't understand - it's that it's a point not particularly relevant to the discussion.
Of course it's relevant, you're only saying it isn't as you don't agree. It's relevant because it's about the validity of using WBAC's offer as a valuation. You can claim it's incorrect if you don't agree. To say it's not relevant suggests you don't understand the meaning of the word 'relevant'. 
. One last try and then I’ll give up....WBAC is being used on this thread as one of a number of proxies for the used car market - that’s the extent of its relevance. Whether it’s a valuation or an offer is completely irrelevant to the discussion of TRENDS of the used car market (and is one of a number of variables). It’s not that offer and valuation are the same thing, it just doesn’t matter in the context of viewing trends, as long as you look at the same price source/sum each time. That price could consistently be 20% of a car’s actual value and it still wouldn’t matter, as the trend/fluctuation would be the same.Deep Thought said:
I dont think they are that concerned. I'm sure they get tens of thousands of valuations per day. How much are they going to have to vary it to make someone change their mind? £100? £200? That could be their net profit margin.
If the punter hasnt bitten at their offer price, i cant imagine they're going to feel an urge to embrace them if they come back with a lower offer.
In fact i've never seen them come back a little later with a lower offer, given they warrant the offer for a number of days. If you havent bitten at that price you're unlikely to bite at a lower price.
I'd just done the deal on my van, past the point where I could be influenced by BS, and the guy at WBAC pointed at a Merc he'd just "bought" off a couple. They took time to think about it and it had dropped £3k, they were something like a day out of the previous value and there was nothing the guy could do to help them out. If the punter hasnt bitten at their offer price, i cant imagine they're going to feel an urge to embrace them if they come back with a lower offer.
In fact i've never seen them come back a little later with a lower offer, given they warrant the offer for a number of days. If you havent bitten at that price you're unlikely to bite at a lower price.
To move away from WBAC discussion...it’ll be really interesting to see what happens in the used car market in 2021. At the start of this thread I, like the majority, were expecting prices to fall. I sold one of my higher value cars - I thought prices were falling but I reckon it’s still worth the same now approx 9 months later.
I’ve been keeping an eye on a few cars - sub 3 year old hot hatches (I’ve been looking at Golf R and GTI) seem to be going through BCA at well over CAP whilst more mundane stuff struggles, larger engined ‘enthusiast’ cars such as early 997s have gone up around 20%, and modern classics are selling quickly for strong prices.
Not sure what’s driving the market to date - whether QE is having any effect, or whether it’s more skewed by the covid grants and loans. In 2021 the economic reality will really hit home - many employees are still on furlough, and there isn’t a sense that there are many “distress sales” yet. Logically this should bring prices down, but if QE/desire for assets is playing a part then prices may not fall as much. My guess is that the heat will go out of the market, but there won’t be a crash in prices. Larger engined V8s etc may go back to suffering from wider pressures that they were facing pre-covid (taxation, EVs etc).
I’ve been keeping an eye on a few cars - sub 3 year old hot hatches (I’ve been looking at Golf R and GTI) seem to be going through BCA at well over CAP whilst more mundane stuff struggles, larger engined ‘enthusiast’ cars such as early 997s have gone up around 20%, and modern classics are selling quickly for strong prices.
Not sure what’s driving the market to date - whether QE is having any effect, or whether it’s more skewed by the covid grants and loans. In 2021 the economic reality will really hit home - many employees are still on furlough, and there isn’t a sense that there are many “distress sales” yet. Logically this should bring prices down, but if QE/desire for assets is playing a part then prices may not fall as much. My guess is that the heat will go out of the market, but there won’t be a crash in prices. Larger engined V8s etc may go back to suffering from wider pressures that they were facing pre-covid (taxation, EVs etc).
Edited by johnnyBv8 on Monday 21st December 09:07
Steve_F said:
Deep Thought said:
I dont think they are that concerned. I'm sure they get tens of thousands of valuations per day. How much are they going to have to vary it to make someone change their mind? £100? £200? That could be their net profit margin.
If the punter hasnt bitten at their offer price, i cant imagine they're going to feel an urge to embrace them if they come back with a lower offer.
In fact i've never seen them come back a little later with a lower offer, given they warrant the offer for a number of days. If you havent bitten at that price you're unlikely to bite at a lower price.
I'd just done the deal on my van, past the point where I could be influenced by BS, and the guy at WBAC pointed at a Merc he'd just "bought" off a couple. They took time to think about it and it had dropped £3k, they were something like a day out of the previous value and there was nothing the guy could do to help them out. If the punter hasnt bitten at their offer price, i cant imagine they're going to feel an urge to embrace them if they come back with a lower offer.
In fact i've never seen them come back a little later with a lower offer, given they warrant the offer for a number of days. If you havent bitten at that price you're unlikely to bite at a lower price.
Mr Tidy said:
I have no idea!
I sold my manual BMW Z4 Sport Coupe on 91K miles in February once I dropped the price to £6,600, and felt relieved I had shifted it before lockdown.
But as soon as lockdown ended prices went crazy, and still are going by this:- https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-search?postcode=g...
The Z4C has long been tipped as an appreciating classic, and that seems to be coming true.I sold my manual BMW Z4 Sport Coupe on 91K miles in February once I dropped the price to £6,600, and felt relieved I had shifted it before lockdown.
But as soon as lockdown ended prices went crazy, and still are going by this:- https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-search?postcode=g...
Asking prices for the best are now £14-15k, decent ones are £9-10k and anything cheaper is likely to be mega miles or suspect in some way.
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