Playing the futures market


During an especially spawny period of last month I was the temporary custodian of an Aston Martin DB11 V12, and I don't mind saying I fell in love with it a little bit. Despite the season's sub-optimal conditions, the car's talent as a luxury GT was clear. It's charismatic, rapid, handles well - despite its 4.7-metre, 1,910kg vitals - and is filled with more leather than Batman's favourite closet. It was the ride that swayed me, though - all that noise, poise and performance and enough comfort to span 850 miles without so much as a brow-furrowing knock.


Suffice it to say, I want one. But at £157,900 before even winking at the options list, the DB11 V12 is somewhat out of my price range. Putting PCP deals aside, the only viable solution is patience: wait for old father time to wreak havoc on the thing's value, then swoop in like a shameless automotive scavenger.

But how long a wait are we talking? I turned to the residuals mystics at CAP, whose forecasts predict the ravaging effects of time and mileage on the value of almost every car on sale today. The longest forecast period is four years, and the maximum mileage 135,000. A few keystrokes revealed the painful truth that even at that unrealistically huge mileage, the earliest DB11 V12 (which is a 2016/66-plate) will still be worth £41,325 in four years. Of course, that's a very rough estimate and is subject to vehicle condition, market performance, oil prices, government regulation, the price of eggs, adiabatic lapse rates in Upper Saxony and who wins the Gloucestershire cheese-rolling title that year.


It's probably the most informed guess you'll find, though, and is sadly still too rich for my blood. For those piqued by this valuation, however, CAP also says that around £60,000 could buy the same car with a more realistic 65,000 miles on the clock, or a DB11 V8 with the same mileage that's six months newer. Both of which seem like a bargain - for someone.

It got me thinking, just how attainable (or otherwise) will others among the recent crop of performance metal be in four years? So, setting our sights on the furthest horizon of CAP's depreciation telescope, here are 10 examples at various arbitrary price points to start saving for now. Can you picture buying one of these cars for yourself come Christmas 2021?

(Valuations are based on the oldest possible plate for the model in question, even if only a handful might have been registered then; arbitrary is the word of the day.)


Lamborghini Huracán Performante - £69,650
Year: 2016/66 plate (will be five years old)
Mileage: 57,000 miles
Price new: £207,980
Search for a Lamborghini Huracan here


Bentley Bentayga W12 - £49,900
Year: 2015/65 plate (will be six years old)
Mileage: 70,000 miles
Price new: £160,255
Search for a Bentley Bentayga here


Mercedes AMG GT Roadster - £39,850
Year: 2016/66 plate (will be five years old)
Mileage: 54,000 miles
Price new: £108,945
Search for a Mercedes AMG GT here


Jaguar F-Type R (facelift) - £30,000
Year: 2016/66 plate (will be five years old)
Mileage: 61,000 miles
Price new: £88,860
Search for Jaguar F-Type Rs here


Audi SQ5 - £20,000
Year: 2016/66 plate (will be five years old)
Mileage: 76,000 miles
Price new: £50,400
Search for Audi SQ5s here


Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifoglio - £19,950
Year: 2016/16 plate (will be five-and-a-half years old)
Mileage: 64,000 miles
(Arguably even more tempting: £10,875 for a 2016/66-plate Giulia Veloce with the same mileage)
Price new: £60,795
Search for Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifoglios here


Honda Civic Type R - £10,000
Year: 2016/66 plate (will be five years old)
Mileage: 72,000 miles
Price new: £30,195
Search for Honda Civic Type Rs here


Ford Focus RS - £9,975
Year: 2015/65 plate (will be six years old)
Mileage: 52,000 miles
Price new: £29,700
Search for a Ford Focus RS here


Abarth 124 Spider - £9,000
Year: 2016/16 plate (will be five-and-a-half years old)
Mileage: 33,000 miles
Price new: £29,420
Search for an Abarth 124 Spider here


Skoda Octavia vRS 245 Estate DSG - £8,000
Year: 2016/66 plate (will be five years old)
Mileage: 60,000 miles
Price new: £29,985
Search for a Skoda Octavia here

Richard J Webber

P.H. O'meter

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Comments (71) Join the discussion on the forum

  • Jonny TVR 12 Dec 2017

    So you think a Lamborghini Huracán Performante will be £70K in 5 years time .. don't think so

  • esuuv 12 Dec 2017

    I've been waiting for F Types to suffer typical jag levels of depreciation as that article predicts - they don't.....................

  • Helicopter123 12 Dec 2017

    Some interesting observations, some will be pessimistic and some not...

    CAP are the industry experts though, and their estimates go a long way to determining PCP quotes so they do matter.

  • Eviltad 12 Dec 2017

    Focus RS MK3 takes a huge hit compared to Focus RS Mk2 which hasn't budged much in 4 years.

  • TooMany2cvs 12 Dec 2017

    Jonny TVR said:
    So you think a Lamborghini Huracán Performante will be £70K in 5 years time .. don't think so
    <nods>
    Likewise the £40k AMG.

    Just apply the same formulae to similar tin from 4-5yrs ago to see how daft it is when you're looking at this sort of bubble tin. Apply it to the Focus, Audi, Honda - all the prosaic stuff, sure. But not to stuff like the Lambo or AMG... That's just daft.

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