During an especially spawny period of last month I was the temporary custodian of an Aston Martin DB11 V12, and I don't mind saying I fell in love with it a little bit. Despite the season's sub-optimal conditions, the car's talent as a luxury GT was clear. It's charismatic, rapid, handles well - despite its 4.7-metre, 1,910kg vitals - and is filled with more leather than Batman's favourite closet. It was the ride that swayed me, though - all that noise, poise and performance and enough comfort to span 850 miles without so much as a brow-furrowing knock.
Suffice it to say, I want one. But at £157,900 before even winking at the options list, the DB11 V12 is somewhat out of my price range. Putting PCP deals aside, the only viable solution is patience: wait for old father time to wreak havoc on the thing's value, then swoop in like a shameless automotive scavenger.
But how long a wait are we talking? I turned to the residuals mystics at CAP, whose forecasts predict the ravaging effects of time and mileage on the value of almost every car on sale today. The longest forecast period is four years, and the maximum mileage 135,000. A few keystrokes revealed the painful truth that even at that unrealistically huge mileage, the earliest DB11 V12 (which is a 2016/66-plate) will still be worth £41,325 in four years. Of course, that's a very rough estimate and is subject to vehicle condition, market performance, oil prices, government regulation, the price of eggs, adiabatic lapse rates in Upper Saxony and who wins the Gloucestershire cheese-rolling title that year.
It's probably the most informed guess you'll find, though, and is sadly still too rich for my blood. For those piqued by this valuation, however, CAP also says that around £60,000 could buy the same car with a more realistic 65,000 miles on the clock, or a DB11 V8 with the same mileage that's six months newer. Both of which seem like a bargain - for someone.
It got me thinking, just how attainable (or otherwise) will others among the recent crop of performance metal be in four years? So, setting our sights on the furthest horizon of CAP's depreciation telescope, here are 10 examples at various arbitrary price points to start saving for now. Can you picture buying one of these cars for yourself come Christmas 2021?
(Valuations are based on the oldest possible plate for the model in question, even if only a handful might have been registered then; arbitrary is the word of the day.)
Lamborghini Huracán Performante
: 2016/66 plate (will be five years old)
Search for a Lamborghini Huracan here
: 2015/65 plate (will be six years old)
Search for a Bentley Bentayga here
: 2016/66 plate (will be five years old)
Search for a Mercedes AMG GT here
Jaguar F-Type R (facelift)
: 2016/66 plate (will be five years old)
Search for Jaguar F-Type Rs here
: 2016/66 plate (will be five years old)
Search for Audi SQ5s here
Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifoglio
: 2016/16 plate (will be five-and-a-half years old)
(Arguably even more tempting: £10,875 for a 2016/66-plate Giulia Veloce with the same mileage)
Search for Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifoglios here
: 2016/66 plate (will be five years old)
Search for Honda Civic Type Rs here
: 2015/65 plate (will be six years old)
Search for a Ford Focus RS here
: 2016/16 plate (will be five-and-a-half years old)
Search for an Abarth 124 Spider here
Skoda Octavia vRS 245 Estate DSG
: 2016/66 plate (will be five years old)
Search for a Skoda Octavia here
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