Malaysian Airlines 777 down on Ukraine / Russia Border?
Discussion
Mermaid said:
loafer123 said:
Mermaid said:
Welshbeef said:
This is going to get interesting - billy big balls needs to come out and play. Its not a kids game anymore its a mans game with huge cluster duck potential.
I think Putin is manipulating stock markets, making more from all this than anything else right now. 
Remember that Anti Air missile system that was spotted yesterday on the borders with Ukraine?
It's found it's way into Donetsk
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K33_Osa
It's found it's way into Donetsk
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K33_Osa
Edited by skyrover on Friday 15th August 20:40
No idea where these landed, but some rebels having abit of fun with some STA missile launcher, similar to the BUK but looks older
(Non graphic video)
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=95b_1408116515
(Non graphic video)
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=95b_1408116515
loafer123 said:
Mermaid said:
Welshbeef said:
This is going to get interesting - billy big balls needs to come out and play. Its not a kids game anymore its a mans game with huge cluster duck potential.
I think Putin is manipulating stock markets, making more from all this than anything else right now. 
The separatists are claiming to have found "dozens of armoured vehicles sitting in fields in perfect condition", apparently abandoned by Ukrainian forces.
https://twitter.com/lifenews_ru/status/50060805741...
Another separatist posted on social media that they had received around 150 vehicles from the Russians.
https://twitter.com/lifenews_ru/status/50060805741...
Another separatist posted on social media that they had received around 150 vehicles from the Russians.
skyrover said:
The separatists are claiming to have found "dozens of armoured vehicles sitting in fields in perfect condition", apparently abandoned by Ukrainian forces.
https://twitter.com/lifenews_ru/status/50060805741...
Another separatist posted on social media that they had received around 150 vehicles from the Russians.
Alexander Zakharchenko had promised 150 armoured vehicles and 1200 extra troops for the rebels a few hours ago in an attempt to stop the rumours that rebels were fleeing Donetsk https://twitter.com/lifenews_ru/status/50060805741...
Another separatist posted on social media that they had received around 150 vehicles from the Russians.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28817347
An interesting but eye opening Russian website that has a collection of all tanks the Russian rebels have destroyed. Not having much joy translating the page but it's atleast several hundred tanks, but could well be several thousand they have destroyed with photos to prove it:
http://lostarmour.info/armour/
Edit to add that the pictures are small and quite unclear until clicked on so nothing offensive can be seen, however I would be cautious on clicking for the enlarged image
http://lostarmour.info/armour/
Edit to add that the pictures are small and quite unclear until clicked on so nothing offensive can be seen, however I would be cautious on clicking for the enlarged image
Edited by rich85uk on Saturday 16th August 15:20
rich85uk said:
An interesting but eye opening Russian website that has a collection of all tanks the Russian rebels have destroyed. Not having much joy translating the page but it's atleast several hundred tanks, but could well be several thousand they have destroyed with photos to prove it:
http://lostarmour.info/armour/
Edit to add that the pictures are small and quite unclear until clicked on so nothing offensive can be seen, however I would be cautious on clicking for the enlarged image
The difference between 'tanks' as opposed to lighter APC's needs to be factored into that.However even Russian MBT's are in most cases just inferior death traps for their crews compared to something like a Challenger 2 or an Abrahms.Which has applied since at least the days when the Israelis wiped out massed ranks of Russian junk in the hands of Arab forces in 1967 and 1973.Often to the point where the Arabs ( rightly ) preferred to bale out and run for it and take their chances in the open than face a certain horrific end.Having said that armoured warfare has never been an easy option regardless of how good the equipment is and takes a certain massive type of bravery to sit there and take it. http://lostarmour.info/armour/
Edit to add that the pictures are small and quite unclear until clicked on so nothing offensive can be seen, however I would be cautious on clicking for the enlarged image
Edited by rich85uk on Saturday 16th August 15:20
George Friedman's view on Putin's moves
Well written IMO
Well written IMO
george friedman said:
TO GET A READ ON WHAT the future holds for the Mideast and Ukraine, we telephoned one of our favorite experts on geopolitics, George Friedman, founder of the private intelligence service Stratfor, headquartered in Austin, Texas. His judgments tend to be more nuanced and long-term than those of the press or Wall Street. He sometimes can veer into the semi-apocalyptic realm. Indeed, ongoing crises are good for Stratfor, which boasts an enviable roster of global clients, including major corporations and numerous government intelligence and foreign-relations arms. But sometimes, it's better to be safe than sorry. And Friedman has had a pretty good batting average.
As far as the Middle East goes, he foresees a decade or more of sectarian and tribal battles -- bloody civil wars that will rip apart the artificial nation states created by the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement that sought to reorganize the Middle East detritus of the old Ottoman Empire.
He calls the likely process the "Lebanonization" of the Middle East, pitting Shiite against Sunni, ethnic group against ethnic group, clan against clan, and tribe against tribe in pitched battles, red of tooth and claw. Syria and Iraq probably won't survive in their current form, despite the best efforts of the Great Powers to keep them intact. "Bashar al-Assad, for example, will just become another warlord presiding over a much smaller enclave," Friedman contends.
The U.S. will have no choice but to stay involved politically and militarily because of the region's heft in the world energy market, particularly if the fighting spreads to Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States. Saudi Arabia, for example, has a restive Shiite population on its Persian Gulf coast, where much of its oil-production capacity rests. It also must worry about blowback from radical Sunni groups like ISIS, which it helped spawn and finance, but now worries about.
About the best that can be hoped for, says Friedman, is that exhaustion eventually sets in throughout the region, as it did in Lebanon following its bloody civil war from the mid-1970s to the late '80s. That yielded a weak central government with numerous religious, ethnic, and clan factions, all with their own militias and ever-shifting alliances of convenience. All of this is likely to foster turbulent energy, bond, and stock markets in the decade ahead.
As for Ukraine, Friedman has a different view of Vladimir Putin's performance there than does much of the Western press. Whereas Putin is commonly viewed as the consummate power politician, a chess player many moves ahead of the competition, Friedman claims that he has so badly bungled the Ukraine situation that he might be deposed as president of Russia in the not- too-distant future.
"Forget his sky-high voter approval ratings in Russia," Friedman asserts. "There are rumblings of discontent inside the Kremlin over his apparent loss of Ukraine to the West, in conjunction with a poorly performing economy being driven into recession in part by U.S. and EU economic sanctions arising from confrontation in Ukraine. One shouldn't forget that Khrushchev was dumped by close Kremlin associates in 1964 as a result of the diplomatic humiliation the USSR suffered in the 1962 Cuban missile crisis and economic woes over the next year and a half."
No nation on Russia's periphery is more important to Moscow than Ukraine. After all, it once was Little Russia, the very font of Russian civilization and culture, going back more than a millennium to the Kievan Rus confederation of Slavic tribes. Ukraine has always acted as a key geographical buffer to the Russian heartland, which now is faced with the European Union and perhaps even NATO pushing right up to the border of Mother Russia. Likewise, Friedman points out, the economies of the two nations have long been closely integrated. Much of Russia's military equipment is produced in Ukraine.
The original demonstrations in Kiev that led to the March ouster of Ukraine prime minister and Putin ally Viktor Yanukovych were triggered by Putin's insistence that Yanukovych torpedo an association deal with the European Union and instead accept a loan bailout and trade agreement with Moscow.
Then Putin and his intelligence services misjudged the depth of the anti-Russian feeling in Ukraine unleashed by the demonstrations and the violence of regime countermeasures. Perhaps Putin believed his own ham-handed propaganda that rebellion was being fostered by Western intelligence agencies and neo-Nazi elements in Ukraine.
Finally Putin counted on at least the eastern, Russian-speaking half of Ukraine to revolt against the new Kiev government. But even with plenty of covert Russian support, financial and military, the uprising never really happened, except in a small section of Southeast Ukraine around the cities of Luhansk and Donetsk. Crimea was relatively easy for Russia to hive off, since it was originally part of Russia and populated with lots of Russian military personnel. The rest of Ukraine has proved a tougher nut to crack.
Putin has exhausted most, if not all, of his options, says Friedman. He can't risk invading Ukraine unless he moves very quickly. In six weeks or so, autumn rains will make much of the country's eastern marshes a muddy quagmire that will bog down any tanks he sends in. And, according to Friedman, Putin can't be assured of military success given the sad state of his military forces. "Look how badly the Russians have bungled the planning and execution of the humanitarian aid relief convoy, and it gives you some idea of the actual disarray in Moscow," Friedman asserts.
Besides, any invasion or other overt support for the Ukrainian rebels is likely to induce more sanctions from the U.S. and EU. This would only exacerbate Russia's economic despond. And for this very reason, Russia this winter isn't likely to cut off its natural-gas flows to Europe, which account for about 30% of the Continent's supplies. Russia is too dependent on the cash from energy exports, contends Friedman.
So about all that Putin can do is bet that the government in Kiev will eventually collapse or be pushed back into the Russian orbit. It was the preternatural venality of Ukrainian politicians that allowed Putin to eventually subvert the 2004 Orange Revolution. But this time around, Western governments and the IMF are keeping a closer eye on Kiev. As long as they don't lose interest, Putin's latest ploy will prove no strategy at all, but merely a figment of hope, adds Friedman.
So if the geopolitics of the Ukrainian situation teaches us nothing else, at this point, one should go long the U.S. economy and stock market and short Russia.
http://online.barrons.com/news/articles/SB50001424...As far as the Middle East goes, he foresees a decade or more of sectarian and tribal battles -- bloody civil wars that will rip apart the artificial nation states created by the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement that sought to reorganize the Middle East detritus of the old Ottoman Empire.
He calls the likely process the "Lebanonization" of the Middle East, pitting Shiite against Sunni, ethnic group against ethnic group, clan against clan, and tribe against tribe in pitched battles, red of tooth and claw. Syria and Iraq probably won't survive in their current form, despite the best efforts of the Great Powers to keep them intact. "Bashar al-Assad, for example, will just become another warlord presiding over a much smaller enclave," Friedman contends.
The U.S. will have no choice but to stay involved politically and militarily because of the region's heft in the world energy market, particularly if the fighting spreads to Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States. Saudi Arabia, for example, has a restive Shiite population on its Persian Gulf coast, where much of its oil-production capacity rests. It also must worry about blowback from radical Sunni groups like ISIS, which it helped spawn and finance, but now worries about.
About the best that can be hoped for, says Friedman, is that exhaustion eventually sets in throughout the region, as it did in Lebanon following its bloody civil war from the mid-1970s to the late '80s. That yielded a weak central government with numerous religious, ethnic, and clan factions, all with their own militias and ever-shifting alliances of convenience. All of this is likely to foster turbulent energy, bond, and stock markets in the decade ahead.
As for Ukraine, Friedman has a different view of Vladimir Putin's performance there than does much of the Western press. Whereas Putin is commonly viewed as the consummate power politician, a chess player many moves ahead of the competition, Friedman claims that he has so badly bungled the Ukraine situation that he might be deposed as president of Russia in the not- too-distant future.
"Forget his sky-high voter approval ratings in Russia," Friedman asserts. "There are rumblings of discontent inside the Kremlin over his apparent loss of Ukraine to the West, in conjunction with a poorly performing economy being driven into recession in part by U.S. and EU economic sanctions arising from confrontation in Ukraine. One shouldn't forget that Khrushchev was dumped by close Kremlin associates in 1964 as a result of the diplomatic humiliation the USSR suffered in the 1962 Cuban missile crisis and economic woes over the next year and a half."
No nation on Russia's periphery is more important to Moscow than Ukraine. After all, it once was Little Russia, the very font of Russian civilization and culture, going back more than a millennium to the Kievan Rus confederation of Slavic tribes. Ukraine has always acted as a key geographical buffer to the Russian heartland, which now is faced with the European Union and perhaps even NATO pushing right up to the border of Mother Russia. Likewise, Friedman points out, the economies of the two nations have long been closely integrated. Much of Russia's military equipment is produced in Ukraine.
The original demonstrations in Kiev that led to the March ouster of Ukraine prime minister and Putin ally Viktor Yanukovych were triggered by Putin's insistence that Yanukovych torpedo an association deal with the European Union and instead accept a loan bailout and trade agreement with Moscow.
Then Putin and his intelligence services misjudged the depth of the anti-Russian feeling in Ukraine unleashed by the demonstrations and the violence of regime countermeasures. Perhaps Putin believed his own ham-handed propaganda that rebellion was being fostered by Western intelligence agencies and neo-Nazi elements in Ukraine.
Finally Putin counted on at least the eastern, Russian-speaking half of Ukraine to revolt against the new Kiev government. But even with plenty of covert Russian support, financial and military, the uprising never really happened, except in a small section of Southeast Ukraine around the cities of Luhansk and Donetsk. Crimea was relatively easy for Russia to hive off, since it was originally part of Russia and populated with lots of Russian military personnel. The rest of Ukraine has proved a tougher nut to crack.
Putin has exhausted most, if not all, of his options, says Friedman. He can't risk invading Ukraine unless he moves very quickly. In six weeks or so, autumn rains will make much of the country's eastern marshes a muddy quagmire that will bog down any tanks he sends in. And, according to Friedman, Putin can't be assured of military success given the sad state of his military forces. "Look how badly the Russians have bungled the planning and execution of the humanitarian aid relief convoy, and it gives you some idea of the actual disarray in Moscow," Friedman asserts.
Besides, any invasion or other overt support for the Ukrainian rebels is likely to induce more sanctions from the U.S. and EU. This would only exacerbate Russia's economic despond. And for this very reason, Russia this winter isn't likely to cut off its natural-gas flows to Europe, which account for about 30% of the Continent's supplies. Russia is too dependent on the cash from energy exports, contends Friedman.
So about all that Putin can do is bet that the government in Kiev will eventually collapse or be pushed back into the Russian orbit. It was the preternatural venality of Ukrainian politicians that allowed Putin to eventually subvert the 2004 Orange Revolution. But this time around, Western governments and the IMF are keeping a closer eye on Kiev. As long as they don't lose interest, Putin's latest ploy will prove no strategy at all, but merely a figment of hope, adds Friedman.
So if the geopolitics of the Ukrainian situation teaches us nothing else, at this point, one should go long the U.S. economy and stock market and short Russia.
rich85uk said:
Yeah it's a shame really that the Ukrainian army is using such outdated and poor equipment, but they have the ex president Viktor Yanukovych to thank for that and probably for all this mess in the first place
Let's just say that 'if' the Ukrainian army was armed with Abrahms tanks and US self propelled artillery etc etc in enough amounts to easily kick Russia out of Eastern Ukraine.Then we'd be looking at a far more dangerous situation than we are now.With one tin pot slavic state trying to get into an ( unjustified ) argument with a much bigger more powerful one.That is armed to the teeth, albeit maybe not always with the best conventional equipment,but probably enough to get the job done,and tactical and strategic nuclear weapons,that go bang just the same and fly just as far,as those held by the major players in NATO. skyrover said:
Which seems to confirm what I've said 'if' Putin isn't allowed to hold onto at least Eastern Ukraine and 'if' NATO doesn't start seeing sense by backing off from Russia's borders Putin will be seen by his military leaders and population as a loser not a hero.In which case all bets are then off regarding what happens next between Russia and NATO.XJ Flyer said:
Which seems to confirm what I've said 'if' Putin isn't allowed to hold onto at least Eastern Ukraine and 'if' NATO doesn't start seeing sense by backing off from Russia's borders Putin will be seen by his military leaders and population as a loser not a hero.In which case all bets are then off regarding what happens next between Russia and NATO.
Been watching your posts without a great deal of interest TBH ... but I have one question for you ... Why don't you hit the space bar after full stops ?
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