How long before diesel is banned throughout Europe?
How long before diesel is banned throughout Europe?
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Discussion

QBee

Original Poster:

22,484 posts

174 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
quotequote all
Serious question.

I am going to retire in the very near future, and before I am too old to do it, we are going random and of no fixed abode, but in reasonable luxury.
My wife and I both fancy selling the house and just being able to tour the west of Europe until we are too old, seeing places and moving on at regular intervals, and as far as possible staying at 23 degrees C all year round while doing it.

The plan involves investing in a sizeable 4/6 berth airconditioned motorhome that is capable of extended stops off grid, the type that costs £45-60k new.
Used ones 5 years old don't cost a lot less, so buying new has its appeal. Hence selling the house to fund it. We plan on living in it for at least the next 5 years, towing either a small electric car, or my TVR on a trailer, for local transport (small matter of wife persuasion to do on that latter point). whistle

The nub of my question - almost all European made motorhomes these days run on between 2 and 3 litre diesel engines. What do we think about the speed of movement in European car fuel legislation? Hybrids and electric cars have advanced surprisingly fast in recent times, as has the move against diesel.

Will we be able to enjoy diesel motorhoming for my 5+ years of touring, or do we think diesel will be banned everywhere before then, which will knacker our tour and stuff up the resale value of our motorhome when we finally decide to settle down again?

Your thoughts, especially informed ones, are welcome.
Ditto on insuring and taxing a vehicle when you have no fixed address, etc etc etc.
Leave out the Brexit buggeration factor please.

Ilovejapcrap

3,311 posts

142 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
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Thought about this myself, as my dads contemplating a new truck.

In the truck world you can still really only get derv so I think it’s a long long time off yet

Aretnap

1,969 posts

181 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
quotequote all
Given that plenty of new diesel vehicles are still being sold, it is vanishingly unlikely that existing ones will be forced off the road in the next 5 years, or anything remotely close to it. A much more likely scenario is that new diesel vehicles will gradually be phased out by punitive taxes, and eventually a ban. Existing ones will be phased out by rust, and perhaps incentives to scrap older ones, rather than by prohibition, until all that will be left are a few classics which don't produce enough pollution between them to be worth worrying about.

Generally speaking when regulations have been brought in for new cars, old cars have been grandfathered - which is why you can still drive classic cars which would not come close to passing modern safety or emissions tests.

You may find that they're heavily charged for entering some city centres, or even banned from them, well before then of course... but I don't imagine that's a major issue with a motorhome.

sim16v

2,177 posts

231 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
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I think you are unduly worrying and it won't happen in your lifetime.

Du1point8

22,907 posts

222 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
quotequote all
parents thought about similar and then decided to go the caravan route.

This way they can have a nice car when not using the caravan and not a stupid little smart or something in case they want to do something.

They have largest single axel caravan that was available, plus are getting something like an X4 to tow it, the caravan is very luxurious and has a queen sized bed in it for them and enough room for another double bed if the seating is converted for visitors, etc.

mattcov

721 posts

256 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
quotequote all
I have a 6 berth motorhome. Reality is that ignoring any diesel banning in major cities, the motorhome would be too big to go into those places and leave it anyway.

For specialist vehicles I don't see a problem for at least the next 10 years and as you've probably realised the time is "now" and before "you're too old to" is probably the more pressing matter.

CAPP0

20,866 posts

233 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
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I had a long chat recently with a long-established dealer who I bought a (petrol) car from. He had a number of pricey-ish diesels on his forecourt (£40-50k) and admitted that he'd had some far longer than he'd expected or would like, and it was getting a bit squeaky. He said he just wasn't getting any calls on them. Seems people are starting to move away from buying them, which was a key driver in my purchase - they don't want that much money tied up in an asset of which the value may drop like a stone and/or they'll be stuck with it.

Pica-Pica

16,605 posts

114 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
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..and CO2 levels are not falling,...all those people buying petrol instead of diesel, tut tut.

Roger Irrelevant

3,389 posts

143 months

Sunday 27th January 2019
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Absolutely no chance that diesel will be banned outright in the next 5 or even ten years. They may be banned from some urban areas, and their tax treatment may not be as favourable as it was, but that'll be it. In fact my next car will probably be my first diesel, and it'll also be by far and away the most expensive I've bought (not that that's saying much).

rdjohn

7,174 posts

225 months

Sunday 27th January 2019
quotequote all
Aretnap said:
Given that plenty of new diesel vehicles are still being sold, it is vanishingly unlikely that existing ones will be forced off the road in the next 5 years, or anything remotely close to it. A much more likely scenario is that new diesel vehicles will gradually be phased out by punitive taxes, and eventually a ban. Existing ones will be phased out by rust, and perhaps incentives to scrap older ones, rather than by prohibition, until all that will be left are a few classics which don't produce enough pollution between them to be worth worrying about.

Generally speaking when regulations have been brought in for new cars, old cars have been grandfathered - which is why you can still drive classic cars which would not come close to passing modern safety or emissions tests.

You may find that they're heavily charged for entering some city centres, or even banned from them, well before then of course... but I don't imagine that's a major issue with a motorhome.
I think this is about right.

ICEs stop being made in 2030, so 10 years after that will bring about a big change. But vested interests will probably ensure carbon fuels will be around for a good time after that.

Electric long-range trucking does not seem particularly likely, but prevention of Diesel vehicles from entering urban zones will probably become socially unacceptable by 2040.

So, strap a couple of bikes on the back.

TTmonkey

20,911 posts

277 months

Sunday 27th January 2019
quotequote all
You’ll be long dead before that happens so dont delay your plans on a false belief that you may lose money with an unsellable motorhome in 10 years time.

If you are going to the continent, buy your MH over there. You will stick out if you are doing ten years of touring on the other side of the channel in a vehicle with the steering wheel on the wrong side.

How you are going to cover medical issues in your retirement if we no deal Brexit will be a bigger issue. Going on hols for a few weeks is one thing, but staying abroad in your retirement for year on end may prove difficult,

QBee

Original Poster:

22,484 posts

174 months

Sunday 27th January 2019
quotequote all
Thanks guys, advice much appreciated.

To answer a few, we have looked at the caravan alternative. I am used to towing a horse trailer, and would always choose double axle over single purely on stability. I like the caravan idea, for the reasons you mention. My wife prefers the motorhome, for the easy access to the van part on the move. Modern caravans are laid out just like motorhomes without the cab up front, so it is an interesting choice, and one I have not written off.

Visiting town and city centres would be on our agenda, and I get the point about 8 metre motorhomes being impractical in urban areas. However, we managed to park in the middle of Oakhampton and Padstow no problem - just got lucky I guess. Chances of parking one in Paris or Rome - zip.
We did actually hire one last September for a week to see how we got on with it, and loved it, mainly for the relaxed driving style, chugging along at 60 without a care in the world, but also for the ability to change destination on a whim. Our test trip to Wales became a trip to Cornwall a mere 30 minutes before we set off..
But thank God we did a trial run, or we would quite likely have bought one with a fixed double bed in one corner. Absolute hassle, given that us over 55s need the conveniences in the middle of the night and are light sleepers. We managed to wake each other up at least three times a night and ended up exhausted. We now know what layout will suit us and what extras we need/want. Full aircon, thermal insulation and a decent sized kitchen for three....as well as a choice of a double bed over the cab and fixed bunk beds in the rear, for those sleepless nights.....of both types!

So, diesel motorhome it is, but we haven't yet ruled out the caravan option.

shovelheadrob

1,564 posts

201 months

Sunday 27th January 2019
quotequote all
I think that the diesel concerns have been fairly covered above as an almost non issue. Getting insurance both vehicle & medical is very difficult if you want to do it completely legally. There's quite a few "full timers" type forums you could look on, most people use a family or friends address for mail & registration purposes, most insurance companies only cover a limited time abroad, all countries have a maximum stay before registration, etc etc.
We plan to do similar (we already have the transport) except we'll keep the house for when we're too old to travel & use the rent as income for the time we do. You get better value with an American RV or 5th wheel than a European motorhome & with slide outs, more room, have a good look at as many different layouts as you can & imagine being stuck inside for a few days with bad weather, the sun doesn't shine all the time!




QBee

Original Poster:

22,484 posts

174 months

Sunday 27th January 2019
quotequote all
TTmonkey said:
You’ll be long dead before that happens so dont delay your plans on a false belief that you may lose money with an unsellable motorhome in 10 years time.

If you are going to the continent, buy your MH over there. You will stick out if you are doing ten years of touring on the other side of the channel in a vehicle with the steering wheel on the wrong side.

How you are going to cover medical issues in your retirement if we no deal Brexit will be a bigger issue. Going on hols for a few weeks is one thing, but staying abroad in your retirement for year on end may prove difficult,
Very pertinent points and thanks for making them.

Yes, I am 65 and my wife 56, but our respective parents died a similar number of years in the future to our present ages.
One of my clients died last October of a brain tumour. Six weeks previously he had played 5 rounds of golf in one week. He was nine months older than me. It has certainly focussed our minds - if we don't do it now, we probably never will.

Buying in France or Italy did cross my mind. Roller Team are made in Italy, Rapido in France and several brands are made in Germany, so it makes sense, as well as the LHD aspect. I will take your advice.

Medical issues are more of a problem, and one I have not bottomed out yet. While I like the idea of being of no fixed abode, it may prove to be utterly impractical. I am currently researching buying a house in northern Spain/southern France for our retirement, or even registering ourselves at a friend's address about 5 miles from the Mulsanne Straight. My wife has/had an Irish grandmother, so we may well be able to become EU citizens once the UK has completed its economic self-destruction and we are sure we need to.

Motor insurance and registration also tend to require a permanent address, though the traveling community seem to manage quite well without one despite owning new caravans and motorhomes.

Lots of questions apart from the diesel/petrol/electric one.

Monkeylegend

29,238 posts

261 months

Sunday 27th January 2019
quotequote all
rdjohn said:
ICEs stop being made in 2030,
I thought it was 2040 and then after that the ICE would have to be hybrid versions, so based on that you can expect the ICE to be around for many years yet.

Emissions technology for both petrol and diesel will be somewhat improved well before then anyway.



TTmonkey

20,911 posts

277 months

Sunday 27th January 2019
quotequote all
QBee said:
Very pertinent points and thanks for making them.

Yes, I am 65 and my wife 56, but our respective parents died a similar number of years in the future to our present ages.
One of my clients died last October of a brain tumour. Six weeks previously he had played 5 rounds of golf in one week. He was nine months older than me. It has certainly focussed our minds - if we don't do it now, we probably never will.

Buying in France or Italy did cross my mind. Roller Team are made in Italy, Rapido in France and several brands are made in Germany, so it makes sense, as well as the LHD aspect. I will take your advice.

Medical issues are more of a problem, and one I have not bottomed out yet. While I like the idea of being of no fixed abode, it may prove to be utterly impractical. I am currently researching buying a house in northern Spain/southern France for our retirement, or even registering ourselves at a friend's address about 5 miles from the Mulsanne Straight. My wife has/had an Irish grandmother, so we may well be able to become EU citizens once the UK has completed its economic self-destruction and we are sure we need to.

Motor insurance and registration also tend to require a permanent address, though the traveling community seem to manage quite well without one despite owning new caravans and motorhomes.

Lots of questions apart from the diesel/petrol/electric one.
Currently we have agreements with EU countries about emergency medical coverage whilst abroad. These will likely continue unless we crash out with a hard Brexit.

My mum is a resident in Spain, has been for 15 years. She’s very worried about a change in attitude if we hard Brexit. It might make life impossible for her, she’s in her 80s and uses the Spanish health service a lot. Forget what the government ‘promise’ post Brexit right now, we won’t know how this will pan out until we are out. So your health insurance, difficult now, might be very very difficult if there’s no agreement after april 1st.


The law doesn’t apply to the ‘traveling community’, as they choose to live outside of civilisation..... they look after their own interests only. I would dread having a car accident involving those types.

It’s very popular on the continent to tow a small service car around. I’d suggest his... buy a ten year old Smart car.

Wobbegong

15,078 posts

199 months

Sunday 27th January 2019
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Once VAG and Groupe PSA are able to phase out diesel vehicles, you’ll see the diesel ban come in.

4rephill

5,168 posts

208 months

Sunday 27th January 2019
quotequote all
Aretnap said:
Given that plenty of new diesel vehicles are still being sold......
In the UK, sales of new diesel cars fell by 37% last year alone.
In Germany, sales fell by 25%

According to Greenpeace, the future of diesel powered cars is not looking as rosy as you seem to be making it out to be (From: https://www.greenpeace.org.uk/handy-list-car-compa... ):

These car companies are ditching diesel
1: Toyota
Is dropping its sale of diesel cars in Europe this year

2: Kia
Has halted development of new diesel engines

3: PSA (Peugeot, Citroen, Vauxhall)
Has halted development of new diesel engines

4: Renault
Had said diesel cars will slowly disappear from their lineup

5: Nissan
Is gradually stopping the sale of diesel vehicles in Europe

6: Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
Will stop selling diesel cars by 2022

7: Subaru
Has stopped selling diesel cars in the UK

8: Volvo
Is stopping the sale of diesel cars

9: Porsche
Has stopped selling diesel cars

10: Cadillac
Has halted development of new diesel engines

11: Suzuki:
Are stopping sales of diesel cars in the UK

12: Bentley
Has stopped selling diesels in Europe

13: Mitsubishi
Has stopped selling diesel cars in the UK and Germany

These car companies are still pushing diesel
Here are the companies that have made no commitments to phase out diesel – including their proportion of UK diesel car sales.

1: VW group – VW, Audi, Seat, Skoda (20.6%)

2: BMW (12%)

4: Daimler – Mercedes-Benz (10%)

5: Ford (9.6 %)

6: JLR – Jaguar, Land Rover (8 %)

7: Mazda (1%)

The cost of diesel is set to rise every year at a faster rate than petrol, to put buyers off from buying diesel powered vehicles, and more towns and cities will ban diesel vehicles from their roads.

Eventually, the 7 companies yet to commit to ending diesel production, will capitulate and and cease making diesel powered models because it will not longer be profitable for them.

The future of diesel power is soon to go back to where it came from - For commercial and agricultural vehicles only!

lowdrag

13,184 posts

243 months

Sunday 27th January 2019
quotequote all
TTmonkey said:
Currently we have agreements with EU countries about emergency medical coverage whilst abroad. These will likely continue unless we crash out with a hard Brexit.

My mum is a resident in Spain, has been for 15 years. She’s very worried about a change in attitude if we hard Brexit. It might make life impossible for her, she’s in her 80s and uses the Spanish health service a lot. Forget what the government ‘promise’ post Brexit right now, we won’t know how this will pan out until we are out. So your health insurance, difficult now, might be very very difficult if there’s no agreement after april 1st.
Off topic, but in France the medical system is quite simple as regards the UK. My medical card here finishes with the number 96, and this is the code for GB. What happens is that at the end of each year the French supposedly send the total medical bill for all such cards to the UK and vice versa, except that I doubt that the Brits have a system to cope with it. Anyway, recently a UKfriend fell over and broke both elbows (he was carrying something fragile) and spent six hours at the hospital, he went back for further treatment, X-rays and finally the plaster casts were taken off. The final bill? £278.

TTmonkey

20,911 posts

277 months

Sunday 27th January 2019
quotequote all
lowdrag said:
TTmonkey said:
Currently we have agreements with EU countries about emergency medical coverage whilst abroad. These will likely continue unless we crash out with a hard Brexit.

My mum is a resident in Spain, has been for 15 years. She’s very worried about a change in attitude if we hard Brexit. It might make life impossible for her, she’s in her 80s and uses the Spanish health service a lot. Forget what the government ‘promise’ post Brexit right now, we won’t know how this will pan out until we are out. So your health insurance, difficult now, might be very very difficult if there’s no agreement after april 1st.
Off topic, but in France the medical system is quite simple as regards the UK. My medical card here finishes with the number 96, and this is the code for GB. What happens is that at the end of each year the French supposedly send the total medical bill for all such cards to the UK and vice versa, except that I doubt that the Brits have a system to cope with it. Anyway, recently a UKfriend fell over and broke both elbows (he was carrying something fragile) and spent six hours at the hospital, he went back for further treatment, X-rays and finally the plaster casts were taken off. The final bill? £278.
I dont think emergency medical treatment will be the problem. However, people in their later years often need ongoing non emergency treatment. If as a 65 year old you intend to spend the next ten years in the road in the EU, I think you need to hope that you don’t develope an illness that requires long term treatment. Moving around the continent won’t get you good medical service, especially if we don’t have hood relations with the EU.

It’s fine when you are healthy. It when health starts to deteriorate that things get hard if you are away from your normal home.

One of the reasons I say to the OP..... don’t delay, get going!

My mum and dad could have moved to Spain in the mid 90s. they waited until my dad was 67. Unfortunately within 18 months of buying their place in Spain he had a heart attack and passed. He could have gone there when he was 56, and enjoyed more if his life out there.