Death of the Movie Theater
Discussion
Yes, yes, we have been predicting the end of the movie theater for decades. I also accept, in recent years, attendance has gone up if we ignore the COVID impact. But, this time its not good.
AT&T, the parent company of both Warner Brothers and HBO have announced they will be releasing all 2021 movies on both platforms at the same time. I get HBO Max for free as part of my mobile phone contract so it makes sense that AT&T want to push traffic to HBO to increase their mobile business as well.
The UK market is different but can it sustain a business model that does not exist in the US where the majority of money is generated? It also means that high quality torrents will be ono line as soon as the content is on HBO. It used to be the movie lover would have to wait several months to watch in HD at home. now it will be available if they have paid or not.
AT&T, the parent company of both Warner Brothers and HBO have announced they will be releasing all 2021 movies on both platforms at the same time. I get HBO Max for free as part of my mobile phone contract so it makes sense that AT&T want to push traffic to HBO to increase their mobile business as well.
The UK market is different but can it sustain a business model that does not exist in the US where the majority of money is generated? It also means that high quality torrents will be ono line as soon as the content is on HBO. It used to be the movie lover would have to wait several months to watch in HD at home. now it will be available if they have paid or not.
David87 said:
I think (hope) it’ll bounce back. I’d always choose cinema over home; I just love the experience.
And that’s why they’ve done well in recent times and will continue to do so. Every film made in the last few years has almost always been available to stream in high quality within weeks of the release date via the internet yet people still went to the cinema to watch.
The UK cinema market is much stronger than the US one, relatively speaking, but everything has moved so far towards a global release model that we're likely to be all thrown in the same boat and pushed down the concurrent streaming/theatrical model if the US is heading that way, piracy will see to that if nothing else.
The biggest issue for the big studios is that whilst the industry itself is still heavily skewed towards the US, box office takings have moved firmly towards the 'overseas' markets, the majority of the big releases in the past 5 years have had around 70% of their box office take 'overseas'. That's potentially a lot of money to give up just because the US cannot sustain a theatrical market for the foreseeable future.
The biggest issue for the big studios is that whilst the industry itself is still heavily skewed towards the US, box office takings have moved firmly towards the 'overseas' markets, the majority of the big releases in the past 5 years have had around 70% of their box office take 'overseas'. That's potentially a lot of money to give up just because the US cannot sustain a theatrical market for the foreseeable future.
JQ said:
Every film made in the last few years has almost always been available to stream in high quality within weeks of the release date via the internet yet people still went to the cinema to watch.
Not me.I have a ridiculously large 4k OLED Tv & a great surround sound.
We can sit on our very comfy reclining couch, eat & drink whatever we want and don't have to put up with people on the phone/talking/coughing/crunching snacks etc.
Plus, being an old man, I can pause the 3 hour movie and go for a pee halfway through.
Can't see me going to the cinema again.
If cinemas can only survive by artificially delaying the release of films on streaming services, then they deserve to go bust. Like any other business, they need to attract customers by providing goods and services that customers actually want and are prepared to pay for. Artificially restricting supply to one group of retailers is usually considered to be completely unacceptable, anti-competitive behaviour. Same goes for independent retailers and the high street. They don't need or deserve protection from out-of-town retail or supermarkets. If customers prefer out-of-town or supermarkets, then independents and the high street need to raise their game or go bust. Why should the rest of us subsidise firms whose goods and services aren't good enough to attract our custom? Going to your average chain cinema is about as attractive as sitting in a railway station in terms of the lavs, the catering, the staff and the high quality interior decorating. Compare and contrast with an Everyman cinema ... clean, couches, booze and actual food, plus it does far more than just show films; it also organises events like interviews with directors. All for a whopping price premium of ten or twenty percent.
ATG said:
If cinemas can only survive by artificially delaying the release of films on streaming services, then they deserve to go bust. Like any other business, they need to attract customers by providing goods and services that customers actually want and are prepared to pay for. Artificially restricting supply to one group of retailers is usually considered to be completely unacceptable, anti-competitive behaviour. Same goes for independent retailers and the high street. They don't need or deserve protection from out-of-town retail or supermarkets. If customers prefer out-of-town or supermarkets, then independents and the high street need to raise their game or go bust. Why should the rest of us subsidise firms whose goods and services aren't good enough to attract our custom? Going to your average chain cinema is about as attractive as sitting in a railway station in terms of the lavs, the catering, the staff and the high quality interior decorating. Compare and contrast with an Everyman cinema ... clean, couches, booze and actual food, plus it does far more than just show films; it also organises events like interviews with directors. All for a whopping price premium of ten or twenty percent.
If cinemas can only survive by artificially delaying the release of films on streaming services, then they deserve to go bust. Like any other business, they need to attract customers by providing goods and services that customers actually want and are prepared to pay for. Artificially restricting supply to one group of retailers is usually considered to be completely unacceptable, anti-competitive behaviour. Same goes for independent retailers and the high street. They don't need or deserve protection from out-of-town retail or supermarkets.
If customers prefer out-of-town or supermarkets, then independents and the high street need to raise their game or go bust. Why should the rest of us subsidise firms whose goods and services aren't good enough to attract our custom?
Going to your average chain cinema is about as attractive as sitting in a railway station in terms of the lavs, the catering, the staff and the high quality interior decorating. Compare and contrast with an Everyman cinema... clean, couches, booze and actual food, plus it does far more than just show films; it also organises events like interviews with directors.
All for a whopping price premium of ten or twenty percent
ATG said:
If cinemas can only survive by artificially delaying the release of films on streaming services, then they deserve to go bust. Like any other business, they need to attract customers by providing goods and services that customers actually want and are prepared to pay for. Artificially restricting supply to one group of retailers is usually considered to be completely unacceptable
The point is they need each other, these movies were made with the projection of making plenty more back in theatres AND then grabbing subscribers to streaming services etc. The streaming services are currently making huge losses in the battle to gain subscribers, throwing a billion dollars worth of movies at one service over the next 12 months is clearly not a sustainable model, given those movies would have likely grossed 2 or 3 times that. Disney made over $7b at the box office in 2018 before they then sold those movies elsewhere (DVD, Sky, cable etc). All the studios would need to make a drastic re-evaluation of what sort of movies they make (and how much they spend on them) before they moved to an entirely new model long term. You could more than likely say goodbye to anything deemed risky (so anything non-franchise) that costs more than a few million dollars to make.
I don't think Cinema will survive in the UK if it doesn't in the US, not in the way it is now with huge out of town multiplexes.
I think unless things reset post-covid, and there seems to be a sense at least that some changes will be permanent for some (retail, and home-working) then it's probably the death of the Blockbuster.
That's probably not a bad thing, certainly when it comes to the latest Superhero films (which most Blockbusters are now) it might have cost $300m but in reality it's a $50m production, $50m of actors salaries and $200m of marketing and advertising. Moving away from that business model allows them to keep banging out the big-ticket super-movies for a 3rd of the cost, but also allows them to make less risk-adverse films.
The problem Studios have had for more than a decade now is protecting their investment from piracy, film rarely leak at the Cinema stage, not in any real watchable quality anyway, but once they're released in a physical or digital format it's all over the torrent sites in hours in 4K, surround sound and all that. They've tried everything over the years to stop it, with little success.
Streaming services seem to be able to beat torrent sites by being convenient and being cheap enough that most consumers don't care enough to cancel if they run out of things to watch. I just rread Disney+ have 77m subscribers now, that's $400m a month in revenue or there abouts.
I think unless things reset post-covid, and there seems to be a sense at least that some changes will be permanent for some (retail, and home-working) then it's probably the death of the Blockbuster.
That's probably not a bad thing, certainly when it comes to the latest Superhero films (which most Blockbusters are now) it might have cost $300m but in reality it's a $50m production, $50m of actors salaries and $200m of marketing and advertising. Moving away from that business model allows them to keep banging out the big-ticket super-movies for a 3rd of the cost, but also allows them to make less risk-adverse films.
The problem Studios have had for more than a decade now is protecting their investment from piracy, film rarely leak at the Cinema stage, not in any real watchable quality anyway, but once they're released in a physical or digital format it's all over the torrent sites in hours in 4K, surround sound and all that. They've tried everything over the years to stop it, with little success.
Streaming services seem to be able to beat torrent sites by being convenient and being cheap enough that most consumers don't care enough to cancel if they run out of things to watch. I just rread Disney+ have 77m subscribers now, that's $400m a month in revenue or there abouts.
P-Jay said:
I don't think Cinema will survive in the UK if it doesn't in the US, not in the way it is now with huge out of town multiplexes.
I think unless things reset post-covid, and there seems to be a sense at least that some changes will be permanent for some (retail, and home-working) then it's probably the death of the Blockbuster.
That's probably not a bad thing, certainly when it comes to the latest Superhero films (which most Blockbusters are now) it might have cost $300m but in reality it's a $50m production, $50m of actors salaries and $200m of marketing and advertising. Moving away from that business model allows them to keep banging out the big-ticket super-movies for a 3rd of the cost, but also allows them to make less risk-adverse films.
The problem Studios have had for more than a decade now is protecting their investment from piracy, film rarely leak at the Cinema stage, not in any real watchable quality anyway, but once they're released in a physical or digital format it's all over the torrent sites in hours in 4K, surround sound and all that. They've tried everything over the years to stop it, with little success.
Streaming services seem to be able to beat torrent sites by being convenient and being cheap enough that most consumers don't care enough to cancel if they run out of things to watch. I just rread Disney+ have 77m subscribers now, that's $400m a month in revenue or there abouts.
Short of cutting off the internet they'll never be able to defeat online piracy, although most people who do download likely wouldn't have paid to see it in the first place. Although one problem with streaming sites is the more companies that try them, the more spread out the content becomes and the less likely people are to pay for yet another subscription.I think unless things reset post-covid, and there seems to be a sense at least that some changes will be permanent for some (retail, and home-working) then it's probably the death of the Blockbuster.
That's probably not a bad thing, certainly when it comes to the latest Superhero films (which most Blockbusters are now) it might have cost $300m but in reality it's a $50m production, $50m of actors salaries and $200m of marketing and advertising. Moving away from that business model allows them to keep banging out the big-ticket super-movies for a 3rd of the cost, but also allows them to make less risk-adverse films.
The problem Studios have had for more than a decade now is protecting their investment from piracy, film rarely leak at the Cinema stage, not in any real watchable quality anyway, but once they're released in a physical or digital format it's all over the torrent sites in hours in 4K, surround sound and all that. They've tried everything over the years to stop it, with little success.
Streaming services seem to be able to beat torrent sites by being convenient and being cheap enough that most consumers don't care enough to cancel if they run out of things to watch. I just rread Disney+ have 77m subscribers now, that's $400m a month in revenue or there abouts.
I can see cinemas surviving more as a niche, smaller ones that focus on arthouse or classic screenings. On the one hand there is nothing that can beat sitting in that darkened theatre with surround sound and no temptation to start browsing on your phone or laptop. On the other, there's the half hour of adverts and the high chance of someone else in there deciding to ruin it for you.
I was at a friend's house last night and we were talking about HBO Max. He is currently using his friend's log in details to use HBO. I told him that was odd because he had already paid for it as part of his mobile phone contract.
The point being, by putting the content on HBO Max at the same time as the cinemas AT&T may not be boosting their revenue as a lot of people already qualify for free HBO through their phone service. In my friend's case he did not even know it.
The point being, by putting the content on HBO Max at the same time as the cinemas AT&T may not be boosting their revenue as a lot of people already qualify for free HBO through their phone service. In my friend's case he did not even know it.
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