Getting round the ICE ban?
Discussion
I was wondering that assuming the ban on ICE sales goes ahead in 2030, could a manufacturer with either a car that doesn’t change a great deal (Caterham, Morgan etc) or has a particular following (M3, V8/V12 somethings) pre-register a large number of cars and sell them approved used for at least a few more years after?
What things can be done to get round the ban do you think?
What things can be done to get round the ban do you think?
Since second-hand ICE will continue to be legal, I don't see why a manufacturer couldn't register a load of cars to be sold new "used" over subsequent years. It would be pretty expensive for a small company to do, though.
I wonder if there's anything to stop someone hand-building cars like Caterham from assigning a load of engine and chassis numbers, and then registering them without actually assembling them, then building them on demand and selling them on "second-hand". Does a car need to actually exist in one piece to to be road registered?
I wonder if there's anything to stop someone hand-building cars like Caterham from assigning a load of engine and chassis numbers, and then registering them without actually assembling them, then building them on demand and selling them on "second-hand". Does a car need to actually exist in one piece to to be road registered?
Edited by kambites on Monday 31st October 09:38
As an OEM, I can tell you...
The answer to your question is: yes they theoretically can. But virtually nobody will want to.
I can see it happening for some exotic stuff or as mothballing for "recreations" or "continuations" in 20 years time, but that's about it. We're talking handfuls of cars, not 10,000's.
Getting importers and dealers to commit to sitting on a years' (or more as some suggest!) worth of stock of an obsolete product is simply not going to happen.
The answer to your question is: yes they theoretically can. But virtually nobody will want to.
I can see it happening for some exotic stuff or as mothballing for "recreations" or "continuations" in 20 years time, but that's about it. We're talking handfuls of cars, not 10,000's.
Getting importers and dealers to commit to sitting on a years' (or more as some suggest!) worth of stock of an obsolete product is simply not going to happen.
SuperPav said:
As an OEM, I can tell you...
The answer to your question is: yes they theoretically can. But virtually nobody will want to.
I can see it happening for some exotic stuff or as mothballing for "recreations" or "continuations" in 20 years time, but that's about it. We're talking handfuls of cars, not 10,000's.
Getting importers and dealers to commit to sitting on a years' (or more as some suggest!) worth of stock of an obsolete product is simply not going to happen.
Related to your point, to avoid having thousands of cars sitting around at what point will physical manufacturing have to stop then? Surely a mass producer like Toyota would need to either stop years in advance to clear the cars that are built in a market that might be nervous to buy or do the above and register everything?The answer to your question is: yes they theoretically can. But virtually nobody will want to.
I can see it happening for some exotic stuff or as mothballing for "recreations" or "continuations" in 20 years time, but that's about it. We're talking handfuls of cars, not 10,000's.
Getting importers and dealers to commit to sitting on a years' (or more as some suggest!) worth of stock of an obsolete product is simply not going to happen.
They've been given an extra year (2035 to 2036) beyond 'normal' ICE cars to negotiate terms.
I can't see it going well TBH. Beyond pre-registering, they're done for. The majority of car buyers are already likely better off with electric over ICE and this trend will continue as no doubt will government mechanisms to discourage ICE use and purchase over the next 13 years.
Let's be honest, they've all had enough notice. Why should any company be given a pass just because they make playthings for rich people and can't be bothered developing a decent electric alternative?
I'm a petrolhead through and through, but I'm also a realist. The writing is well and truly on the wall for people like me.
I can't see it going well TBH. Beyond pre-registering, they're done for. The majority of car buyers are already likely better off with electric over ICE and this trend will continue as no doubt will government mechanisms to discourage ICE use and purchase over the next 13 years.
Let's be honest, they've all had enough notice. Why should any company be given a pass just because they make playthings for rich people and can't be bothered developing a decent electric alternative?
I'm a petrolhead through and through, but I'm also a realist. The writing is well and truly on the wall for people like me.
For kit cars especially you could also just supply a rolling chassis and leave your Customer to fit an engine.
You could also sell your Customer an engine from your sister company that just happens to do engine refurbs.
And you could also recommend they speak to your associated company about fitting the engine for you.
And you could offer to liaise with that company directly on your behalf as an additional service.
So long as the car is registered and then the engine swap is separately notified it's no bother.
You could also sell your Customer an engine from your sister company that just happens to do engine refurbs.
And you could also recommend they speak to your associated company about fitting the engine for you.
And you could offer to liaise with that company directly on your behalf as an additional service.
So long as the car is registered and then the engine swap is separately notified it's no bother.
Baldchap said:
Let's be honest, they've all had enough notice. Why should any company be given a pass just because they make playthings for rich people and can't be bothered developing a decent electric alternative?
Setting aside the hyperbole, it would seem not at all a case of companies simply "[not being] bothered"; rather, one presumes it to be a function both of low volumes and concerns in respect of product differentiation.SuperPav said:
I can see it happening for some exotic stuff or as mothballing for "recreations" or "continuations" in 20 years time, but that's about it. We're talking handfuls of cars, not 10,000's.
.
I was reading recently that one of the companies that makes naff modded Defenders bought loads of them at the end of production to secure their own stock for a while..
EyeHeartSpellin said:
Related to your point, to avoid having thousands of cars sitting around at what point will physical manufacturing have to stop then? Surely a mass producer like Toyota would need to either stop years in advance to clear the cars that are built in a market that might be nervous to buy or do the above and register everything?
I’d expect the full model change closest to 2030 becomes whatever passes the ban. Most will be looking at 2027 to be compliant I expect.Mind you, sensible countries aren’t banning ICE so there are still markets that will take them.
grudas said:
I'd treat that 2030 as a "we'd love to get to a ban by then" but in reality things will continue changing.. wouldn't surprise me if e-fuels get much more popular and we extend the date etc.
Yes, this. The talk of a ban has been enough to see the mainstream transition to EV, and more and more manufacturers are confirming they will be EV only. So the incoming ban has already worked. I would hope that delays and exemptions for small manufacturers of the likes of Caterham and Morgan will follow.
delta0 said:
I suspect with many people moving over to electric before then that fuel station numbers will start falling significantly (as they already are) and it will be really tough for used as well as any new used cars to sell. They just won’t be desirable to most people.
The number of petrol stations hasn't changed significantly since 2010.covmutley said:
grudas said:
I'd treat that 2030 as a "we'd love to get to a ban by then" but in reality things will continue changing.. wouldn't surprise me if e-fuels get much more popular and we extend the date etc.
Yes, this. The talk of a ban has been enough to see the mainstream transition to EV, and more and more manufacturers are confirming they will be EV only. So the incoming ban has already worked. I would hope that delays and exemptions for small manufacturers of the likes of Caterham and Morgan will follow.
You can’t enforce an industry wide move to a totally different source of motive power and then allow some people who will no doubt be characterised as ‘the rich’ a way to get around it.
Of course practically, these low volume cars would make a vanishingly small contribution to the state of the climate.
But politically no politician is going to die on a hill defending a few well heeled enthusiasts.
More generally, anyone who wishes to can buy as many petrol-powered cars as they can afford before 2030 (and hybrids before 2035), register them and park them in a barn.
The issue is stumping up the money to buy and store the cars, making in effect a bet on future demand/values.
More generally I think that supercar manufacturers are already working towards the 2030 and 2035 deadlines, hence the Artura and 296GTB are hybrids, their replacements will have larger batteries (to meet 2030-35 regs on EV only range), and then the following gen will be pure EVs.
So it's not as if companies will be selling pure N/A V12s right up to 31st Dec 2029 or whatever and then there will be a sudden change, it looks like much more of a gradual transition. For instance, I think the Aventador has already gone off sale; it may be that the last opportunity to order a new car with a naturally aspirated V12 has already passed.
Hence I don't see that many chances to stockpile new cars just before the deadline.
The issue is stumping up the money to buy and store the cars, making in effect a bet on future demand/values.
More generally I think that supercar manufacturers are already working towards the 2030 and 2035 deadlines, hence the Artura and 296GTB are hybrids, their replacements will have larger batteries (to meet 2030-35 regs on EV only range), and then the following gen will be pure EVs.
So it's not as if companies will be selling pure N/A V12s right up to 31st Dec 2029 or whatever and then there will be a sudden change, it looks like much more of a gradual transition. For instance, I think the Aventador has already gone off sale; it may be that the last opportunity to order a new car with a naturally aspirated V12 has already passed.
Hence I don't see that many chances to stockpile new cars just before the deadline.
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