Where will we be in 5 years?

[covmutley]

By 2028, we will be perilously close to the 2030 ban on ice cars, and you would think that manufacturers would be ready for ev, and probably not selling ice cars at that point.

And anyway, even now, the ever tightening emissions rules seem to be resulting in either cars that are made in tiny numbers (gt86, civic type r) or that just don't seem to appeal, the comments on the article on the new c63 being a case in point.

So where will that leave the enthusiast?

I like ev cars, I've had one. They are quick, smooth, and easy to drive. But soulless. Piping fake noise into a cabin doesn't solve it. In fact, to my weird little brain, it puts me off more.

Kit cars seem to have died a death when you could get a reliable mx5 for £3k and a boxster for £7k, but perhaps there might be a resurgence in the industry? I can see demand for well designed, well packaged kits that utilise popular engines, and which are less 'garden shed' and that are marketed well. Or will kit cars also be caught up in the ban? I don't know?

On to classics and modern classics. I can only see both being popular, and values going up.

Lastly motorsport, with roads being busier, slower and with more camera enforcement, maybe we will see growth in forms of motlike autosolos and autograss, where people can thrash archaic ice cars that are lepers on the public roads?

To be fair, some of the above need not be depressing. We will always find a way to get motoring pleasure I'm sure and it might result in opportunities.

[cobra kid]

Glad you brought it up. It's never been mentioned before on here.

[raspy]

The solution is that we are all going to be driving ICE cars by using virtual reality headsets. Technology is the solution. No emissions and no need for insurance. Job done.

[covmutley]

cobra kid said:

Glad you brought it up. It's never been mentioned before on here.

So sorry, happy Christmas to you.

[NerveAgent]

I’m not sure that it will be much different from normal. Perhaps the average age of the minority interested in “classics” will be slightly lower for a decade.

[cerb4.5lee]

I'm hoping that by then someone will realise what a terrible idea EVs were/are, and then we can all go back to normal.

[Jader1973]

ICE cars aren’t going anywhere for a long time unless they actually get banned (or petrol gets banned).

There are millions of them and it takes a long time to fully clean out the entire car fleet. An ICE sold in 2029 will realistically live until at least 2039 even if it isn’t looked after terribly well.

100% of sales may well be EV in 2030 but that is a small percentage of the actual cars on the road.

I expect manufacturers will move over as early as they can though - the last thing they’ll want is to be left with a load of ICE stock they can’t sell. They’d be mental if they were still manufacturing ICE beyond the end of 2028 in Europe.

[cobra kid]

covmutley said:

So sorry, happy Christmas to you.

But a serious answer......I sense my focus is slowly shifting in terms of future purchases. A small, but growing larger by the day, part of my consciousness is thinking about charging ports at home, where cables would go, local charging facilities etc. Unless money is no object, then soon enough the vast majority will have to as well. It's a no brainer. It'll be a long time though for me, as money IS an object!

[cerb4.5lee]

cobra kid said:

covmutley said:

So sorry, happy Christmas to you.

But a serious answer......I sense my focus is slowly shifting in terms of future purchases. A small, but growing larger by the day, part of my consciousness is thinking about charging ports at home, where cables would go, local charging facilities etc. Unless money is no object, then soon enough the vast majority will have to as well. It's a no brainer. It'll be a long time though for me, as money IS an object!

I think this is one of the big problems as you say. If you're wealthy then perhaps you might be thinking about getting one, but for everyone else they just won't work because they are so unaffordable. Plus they aren't exactly attractive either in terms of a poor range/having to faff around trying to find a charger etc. So if you have half a brain you're not going to push yourself into something that is a lot more hassle than what you've been used to I reckon.

[raspy]

cerb4.5lee said:

I think this is one of the big problems as you say. If you're wealthy then perhaps you might be thinking about getting one, but for everyone else they just won't work because they are so unaffordable. Plus they aren't exactly attractive either in terms of a poor range/having to faff around trying to find a charger etc. So if you have half a brain you're not going to push yourself into something that is a lot more hassle than what you've been used to I reckon.

Once upon a time, lots of new technologies were unaffordable and pretty crap in terms of features, like mobile phones and computers. They eventually came down in price and the technology itself improved, and now the masses have them.

Do you really believe that EVs will forever remain unaffordable and the technology including range and charging will not improve at all over time?

[Limpet]

Jader1973 said:

ICE cars aren’t going anywhere for a long time unless they actually get banned (or petrol gets banned).

There are millions of them and it takes a long time to fully clean out the entire car fleet. An ICE sold in 2029 will realistically live until at least 2039 even if it isn’t looked after terribly well.

What you say is true, but I suspect their demise will be accelerated by more subtle and insidious things than outright bans. In short, you will be free to own and drove and IC car, but using the thing will become so restricted, not to mention cripplingly expensive, that only the most die hard fan, or those who genuinely couldn’t make an EV work (and most can, let’s be honest) will stomach the hassle and cost.

As we are seeing with the various anti-car schemes in cities like Oxford, the powers that be tend to prefer sticks to carrots.

Edited by Limpet on Thursday 15th December 08:17

[Maracus]

cerb4.5lee said:

I think this is one of the big problems as you say. If you're wealthy then perhaps you might be thinking about getting one, but for everyone else they just won't work because they are so unaffordable. Plus they aren't exactly attractive either in terms of a poor range/having to faff around trying to find a charger etc. So if you have half a brain you're not going to push yourself into something that is a lot more hassle than what you've been used to I reckon.

If you can charge at home it is zero hassle/faff. If you buy/lease the correct car then range isn't an issue.

What is an issue is if you can't currently charge at home or work, not for some who have an EV and will charge publicly.

Once the charging network is more expansive/larger multiple charge points at the same location, then charging on a long trip can take no longer than filling with diesel/petrol. For e.g. we drove back from Annecy to Northants in one hit in August - 650 miles. As per the last 30 odd years we stopped every 2 hours to have a comfort break/snack/stretch for 10-15 minutes whilst adding enough electrons for the next 2 hours/140 miles. If you're a '400 miles in one go' driver, then granted it would be slower. Stick with diesel/petrol for now.

[hammo19]

Hopefully by 2030 we will have alternative options to electric giving more choice

[GR86]

I thought this was going to be about the economy, still fked?

[Triumph Man]

cerb4.5lee said:

I'm hoping that by then someone will realise what a terrible idea EVs were/are, and then we can all go back to normal.

hear hear.

[brillomaster]

my current car is 14 years old. ergo, i wont need to buy an EV until 2044, when the last petrol engined cars made will be 14 years old. and 22 years away is a long time, far too long to consider.

my fun weekend car is currently 22 years old, taking that forward, i'll still have a fun weekend car in 2050, if for example i bought that last porsche boxster made before they turn electric.

[samoht]

By 2028 I imagine newly introduced models will be predominantly EVs, with the remainder being some plug-in hybrids which are permitted to be sold until 2035.

You absolutely could have a hybrid Golf GTI, hybrid Civic Type R etc in 2028. Will we? Hard to say.

It's actually surprisingly unclear what the legal requirements are going to be even from 2025 and 2030. Euro 7 seems to be changing backwards and forwards and it's unclear when and how it'll be introduced; some companies are saying they will go EV only rather than homologating any engines for it, and it could be as soon as 2025.

Then the 'hybrids only' rule from 2030-35 hasn't yet been defined, it's clear they mean some meaningful battery capacity, but how long an EV range is needed hasn't been fixed yet.

So there may or may not be performance hybrids coming out in 2028, and they may or may not be any good. The Ferrari 296 and McLaren Artura are hybrids, and they've been very well received.


I think the overall pattern at present could be called 'fun cars for the 1%'; there are lots of exciting cars available that are faster and better than ever, but mostly above £100k and in many cases several times that. The high end stuff remains good and a mixture of ICE, hybrid and EV, but fun affordable cars are rare. It's not quite a new Malaise era, but has some aspects of the 1970s.

I think it's transitional, I think there will be affordable fun EVs in future, and perhaps other technologies too. But for now it's high end stuff, or older cars.

There are a lot of great older cars around to enjoy, there are challenges of rust and of parts availability, although manufacturers are making noises about supporting their older cars, so to some extent where there's a will there's a way. Arguably a good car from the current or recent era would be a good bet to enjoy in 2028, 2030 etc as a fun car alongside an EV daily, until the manufacturers crack how to make fun cars again under the market and regulatory challenges.

[Ninja59]

I will admit I changed my car this year, it was the most diverse list of cars possible. Interestingly, it included no hybrids either straight ICE or full on BEV.

In the end I went full on silly and decided to just get what I really wanted, straight ICE, V8, twin turbo and with I admit a generation that is marmite in some quarters. Overall, I like the cars "honesty", i.e. being f*cking useless on just about anything to do with emissions, MPG - funniest bit though is the car is probably the nearest to the quoted MPG I have ever seen...

That being said I deliberately have financed the car over 4 years, just to see where the world is. I know some will say even more EVs and I can see that, but the UK infrastructure network still seems to be the biggest failing.

Additionally, and I mean this in the nicest sense possible (and I admit not from all quarters) the frankly cult like nature of some EV tribes and commentators (using inflammatory language) will not help at all.

I also suspect the chancellor won't have helped the EV cause much recently.

Edited by Ninja59 on Thursday 15th December 09:05

[andy43]

I think in late 2029 unless things change massively there’ll be an increase in nearly new ICE car prices. Electric just doesn’t work for everybody. For single car households on a Facebook marketplace budget an EV is currently way out of reach - there are five grand Leafs with wobbly 50-60 mile ranges and that’s it. That won’t change anytime soon.
Enthusiasts with money will keep buying ICE right until the end, alongside an everyday EV, but looking at the state of the new C63 I’m not sure there’ll be much choice unless Lotus etc keep producing stuff with emotion. V8 - buy now while stocks last!

[randomeddy]

Every time I see the phrase ICE I can't help but think it means in car entertainment, like back to the Max Power days.