Which will disappear first, petrol or diesel?
Discussion
I will probably be changing my car soon and for various reasons (that we don't need to get into now) I will be sticking with ICE. I'd be interested to know the general consensus regarding whether going for diesel or petrol would be better in terms of resale in (say) 5 years' time (I know, you need a crystal ball, but let's have your thoughts).
My thoughts are:
Diesel seems to be generally falling out of favour, with new diesel registrations falling significantly, (and there are generally slightly better deals on comparable cars (BMW M340d/M340i)) However, if we consider the lorry/bus/train market, it seems likely to me that diesel will be around a lot longer than petrol, so could that turn things back in favour of the old black stuff in due course, or will all ICE become irrelevant dinosaurs and so it makes no difference either way?
Thoughts?
My thoughts are:
Diesel seems to be generally falling out of favour, with new diesel registrations falling significantly, (and there are generally slightly better deals on comparable cars (BMW M340d/M340i)) However, if we consider the lorry/bus/train market, it seems likely to me that diesel will be around a lot longer than petrol, so could that turn things back in favour of the old black stuff in due course, or will all ICE become irrelevant dinosaurs and so it makes no difference either way?
Thoughts?
FlyingPanda said:
I will probably be changing my car soon and for various reasons (that we don't need to get into now) I will be sticking with ICE. I'd be interested to know the general consensus regarding whether going for diesel or petrol would be better in terms of resale in (say) 5 years' time (I know, you need a crystal ball, but let's have your thoughts).
My thoughts are:
Diesel seems to be generally falling out of favour, with new diesel registrations falling significantly, (and there are generally slightly better deals on comparable cars (BMW M340d/M340i)) However, if we consider the lorry/bus/train market, it seems likely to me that diesel will be around a lot longer than petrol, so could that turn things back in favour of the old black stuff in due course, or will all ICE become irrelevant dinosaurs and so it makes no difference either way?
Thoughts?
Petrol will be around for a long time yet. My thoughts are:
Diesel seems to be generally falling out of favour, with new diesel registrations falling significantly, (and there are generally slightly better deals on comparable cars (BMW M340d/M340i)) However, if we consider the lorry/bus/train market, it seems likely to me that diesel will be around a lot longer than petrol, so could that turn things back in favour of the old black stuff in due course, or will all ICE become irrelevant dinosaurs and so it makes no difference either way?
Thoughts?
I mean it is petrol at the moment and mostly mild hybrid or full hybrid for many. As much as I have had 2 diesels (which I loved), the signs are flashing in terms of longevity in a normal passenger car as more and more of the engines get pulled from sale.
The more complex question is how long will manufacturers hold out building hybrids v BEV, I am not sure personally.
I would have gone BEV for the replacement last year owing to my low mileage, but quickly realised I might as well have what I really want and what I wanted was a V8 in my life. So I got a V8 instead, sensible choice most definitely not and I get the benefits of BEV, but I just find it hard to even mildly excited by them (and I don't want one that solely focuses on tech as it bores me to death, but that goes for a number of ICE cars as well with s
te "safety systems" like active lane keep assist, which is borderline sucidial and thinks we are going to crash because of a corner, incline and the camera seeing the sky (sorry just having a moan about my mum's XC40 which is unhinged on some of the corners around here).
The more complex question is how long will manufacturers hold out building hybrids v BEV, I am not sure personally.
I would have gone BEV for the replacement last year owing to my low mileage, but quickly realised I might as well have what I really want and what I wanted was a V8 in my life. So I got a V8 instead, sensible choice most definitely not and I get the benefits of BEV, but I just find it hard to even mildly excited by them (and I don't want one that solely focuses on tech as it bores me to death, but that goes for a number of ICE cars as well with s
te "safety systems" like active lane keep assist, which is borderline sucidial and thinks we are going to crash because of a corner, incline and the camera seeing the sky (sorry just having a moan about my mum's XC40 which is unhinged on some of the corners around here). In new car sales pure diesel is only 4% of the market, diesel hybrids are 3.8%. That's tiny. I can see manufacturers dropping diesels soon if the sales continue to tank.
I suspect it'll end up like the USA where diesel is available, but it's one or two pumps which you have to share with lorries.
EVs now outsell diesel by a huge margin, and it seems to grow each month. The waiting lists for some EVs are huge and if they can get that down the sales will probably go even higher.
So I think diesel will fade away first, at least for cars.
But like LPG it'll always be available, at least for another 20 years or so.
Once more electric lorries are available, the shift to them will be fast due to how cheap they will be to run. Then things will get interesting. That Tesla lorry really does seem to go 400-500miles on a charge. That's perfect for the UK.
I suspect it'll end up like the USA where diesel is available, but it's one or two pumps which you have to share with lorries.
EVs now outsell diesel by a huge margin, and it seems to grow each month. The waiting lists for some EVs are huge and if they can get that down the sales will probably go even higher.
So I think diesel will fade away first, at least for cars.
But like LPG it'll always be available, at least for another 20 years or so.
Once more electric lorries are available, the shift to them will be fast due to how cheap they will be to run. Then things will get interesting. That Tesla lorry really does seem to go 400-500miles on a charge. That's perfect for the UK.
autumnsum said:
In new car sales pure diesel is only 4% of the market, diesel hybrids are 3.8%. That's tiny. I can see manufacturers dropping diesels soon if the sales continue to tank.
I suspect it'll end up like the USA where diesel is available, but it's one or two pumps which you have to share with lorries.
EVs now outsell diesel by a huge margin, and it seems to grow each month. The waiting lists for some EVs are huge and if they can get that down the sales will probably go even higher.
So I think diesel will fade away first, at least for cars.
But like LPG it'll always be available, at least for another 20 years or so.
Once more electric lorries are available, the shift to them will be fast due to how cheap they will be to run. Then things will get interesting. That Tesla lorry really does seem to go 400-500miles on a charge. That's perfect for the UK.
The lorry thing is an interesting one as I know there one or two electric fh volvos floating around here.I suspect it'll end up like the USA where diesel is available, but it's one or two pumps which you have to share with lorries.
EVs now outsell diesel by a huge margin, and it seems to grow each month. The waiting lists for some EVs are huge and if they can get that down the sales will probably go even higher.
So I think diesel will fade away first, at least for cars.
But like LPG it'll always be available, at least for another 20 years or so.
Once more electric lorries are available, the shift to them will be fast due to how cheap they will be to run. Then things will get interesting. That Tesla lorry really does seem to go 400-500miles on a charge. That's perfect for the UK.
Biggest issue is upfront price. A volvo FH is about £200k, the electric FHs are nearer £350k...
Petrol, as haulage, at least for now runs on it and will be required for a lot longer, until the entire truck fleet is replaced with electric (or hydrogen ?) vehicles, Petrol and diesel passenger cars are well on their way to being replaced, but not trucks. Few electric buses about but still the bulk are diesel still, generators tend to run on diesel as well.
But both will be around for a while yet, but there will be less fuel stations year by year, will get more difficult/inconvenient to find which will force/help the decision to go electric as charging opportunities and speed will increase as fueling ICE cars gets more challenging. Will find that stations close and become charging stations, will force you to go further, possible queue more. Been happening for years really, lots of small stations gone in favour of ones on retail parks.
But both will be around for a while yet, but there will be less fuel stations year by year, will get more difficult/inconvenient to find which will force/help the decision to go electric as charging opportunities and speed will increase as fueling ICE cars gets more challenging. Will find that stations close and become charging stations, will force you to go further, possible queue more. Been happening for years really, lots of small stations gone in favour of ones on retail parks.
FlyingPanda said:
I will probably be changing my car soon and for various reasons (that we don't need to get into now) I will be sticking with ICE. I'd be interested to know the general consensus regarding whether going for diesel or petrol would be better in terms of resale in (say) 5 years' time (I know, you need a crystal ball, but let's have your thoughts).
My thoughts are:
Diesel seems to be generally falling out of favour, with new diesel registrations falling significantly, (and there are generally slightly better deals on comparable cars (BMW M340d/M340i)) However, if we consider the lorry/bus/train market, it seems likely to me that diesel will be around a lot longer than petrol, so could that turn things back in favour of the old black stuff in due course, or will all ICE become irrelevant dinosaurs and so it makes no difference either way?
Thoughts?
In 5 years time there will still be 30+ million petrol and diesel vehicles on the road, when/if diesel or petrol disappear shouldn't form part of your decision making process. My thoughts are:
Diesel seems to be generally falling out of favour, with new diesel registrations falling significantly, (and there are generally slightly better deals on comparable cars (BMW M340d/M340i)) However, if we consider the lorry/bus/train market, it seems likely to me that diesel will be around a lot longer than petrol, so could that turn things back in favour of the old black stuff in due course, or will all ICE become irrelevant dinosaurs and so it makes no difference either way?
Thoughts?
I wish diesel would die a rapid death.
We live halfway up a short hill, and the f&&(%& things seem to be in regen (or whatever it's called) as they pass our study window and turn on to a side street (straight ahead is a one way).
And nearly all of them (regardless of age) stink. VAG products are the worst, followed closely by Ford.
The older ones (10+ years) can be utterly appalling. How they manage to pass an MOT amazes me.
Don't have any such issues with petrol powered vehicles.
We live halfway up a short hill, and the f&&(%& things seem to be in regen (or whatever it's called) as they pass our study window and turn on to a side street (straight ahead is a one way).
And nearly all of them (regardless of age) stink. VAG products are the worst, followed closely by Ford.
The older ones (10+ years) can be utterly appalling. How they manage to pass an MOT amazes me.
Don't have any such issues with petrol powered vehicles.
I could see diesel going the way of four star relatively soon, and not being available at the majority of petrol stations.
The supermarket stations in particular (which don't serve HGVs) will want to maximise the use of their land so will be able to make more profit from the same space having only petrol and EV charging points. If cities start banning Euro6 diesels as well then diesel within city supermarkets could go quite soon. There's no logical other reason why London is pushing on spending millions installing ANPR cameras with a 15-20 year life to enforce ULEZ charges on cars which are already a minimum of 8 years old and will mostly be gone within 3-4 years.
Red diesel will be around much longer - I suspect the last users of diesel will be farmers, boats and trains. HGVs because of the mileage they do are replaced when they are surprisingly new, so if someone comes up with a feasible alternative diesel trucks could be gone pretty quickly.
The supermarket stations in particular (which don't serve HGVs) will want to maximise the use of their land so will be able to make more profit from the same space having only petrol and EV charging points. If cities start banning Euro6 diesels as well then diesel within city supermarkets could go quite soon. There's no logical other reason why London is pushing on spending millions installing ANPR cameras with a 15-20 year life to enforce ULEZ charges on cars which are already a minimum of 8 years old and will mostly be gone within 3-4 years.
Red diesel will be around much longer - I suspect the last users of diesel will be farmers, boats and trains. HGVs because of the mileage they do are replaced when they are surprisingly new, so if someone comes up with a feasible alternative diesel trucks could be gone pretty quickly.
TonyRPH said:
I wish diesel would die a rapid death.
We live halfway up a short hill, and the f&&(%& things seem to be in regen (or whatever it's called) as they pass our study window and turn on to a side street (straight ahead is a one way).
And nearly all of them (regardless of age) stink. VAG products are the worst, followed closely by Ford.
The older ones (10+ years) can be utterly appalling. How they manage to pass an MOT amazes me.
Don't have any such issues with petrol powered vehicles.
Yet it is not that simple as some early direct injection engines were found to admit as many particulates as pre dpf diesels.We live halfway up a short hill, and the f&&(%& things seem to be in regen (or whatever it's called) as they pass our study window and turn on to a side street (straight ahead is a one way).
And nearly all of them (regardless of age) stink. VAG products are the worst, followed closely by Ford.
The older ones (10+ years) can be utterly appalling. How they manage to pass an MOT amazes me.
Don't have any such issues with petrol powered vehicles.
Regen processes on diesels though I will agree even as a former diesel driver do smell and even in the car if knowledgeable enough smell of burning due to the temperatures involved being so high.
rigga said:
GetCarter said:
stevemcs said:
Neither in our lifetimes.
Wrong.A little substance to your argument might help.
Well it depends how old you are!
Check out where all the clever money is going. That will tell you all you need to know. Top tip.. it ain't going into oil.
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