Diesel Future?

[Chris5150]

Folks,

I'm seriously considering getting back into a large diesel lump, probably an M340d touring. All the reviews online say that there is very little to separate this from the M340i. The mountain of torque suits my driving style rather than the higher revving nature of the 'i'.

What do you all think is the future of diesel, say the next 5-10 years? Will they be taxed into oblivion even before the revised 2035 ban on new sales?

Any thoughts welcome and gratefully received.

[Triumph Man]

I hope they aren't taxed into oblivion, diesel engines suit a wide range of automotive options.

[axel1990chp]

If it were me I’d factor in how long I wanted the car for, and my financial intention at the end of it.

If diesel does go in the bin quicker than anticipated, I doubt there’s much resale value in the 340d vs the 340i

[SteBrown91]

Diesel will be around for a long time yet. No one in the right mind is going to run an Electric truck or Van that has to run up and down the country.

[HazzaT]

I think there'll be more ULEZ-type things brought into cities but I don't think there'll be a blanket diesel tax or anything like that. If anything there's more likely to be creating electric only zones than targetting diesels specifically.

I definitely see the appeal of going for the diesel though, the lump in my 330d is much nicer for daily use than yet another 2.0 turbo 4

[911Spanker]

I think diesel is great in certain applications.

[JustGetATesla]

Diesel will still be here for years and years and years. That isn't to say that the tax regime won't change - probably several times.

Back in 2019 I needed to get a motorway cruiser for doing lots of miles. Looked. at another Beemer and rejected it, looked at Audi and Mercedes and they did nothing for me. In the end it was a toss-up between a Lexus ES petrol and a Volvo S90 diesel.

The S90 was the nicest I have ever owned but the drivetrain sucked. I'd sworn I was done with diesel after driving them for 15 years, but ended up back in one because vs both the Lexus or a Volvo T6 the fuel economy saving was too strong. Only problem is a small diesel (2l) isn't much fun and the slushbox in the Volvo felt primitive having had electric motors in a previous Outlander PHEV.

[raspy]

Chris5150 said:

Folks,

I'm seriously considering getting back into a large diesel lump, probably an M340d touring. All the reviews online say that there is very little to separate this from the M340i. The mountain of torque suits my driving style rather than the higher revving nature of the 'i'.

What do you all think is the future of diesel, say the next 5-10 years? Will they be taxed into oblivion even before the revised 2035 ban on new sales?

Any thoughts welcome and gratefully received.

Personally, I think the use of diesel cars will be taxed much more in years to come, even outside of city centres. Plus, if Labour come into power next year, they will bring forward the ban on new petrol and diesel cars to 2030, and do a lot more.

It all depends upon your attitude towards risk. If you don't mind taking on the risk of being taxed a lot more in the future, then go ahead.

[Clivey]

I'd much rather pay a bit more to drive a decent straight six BMW than end-up with some miserable 4-banger hybrid (330e etc.) that doesn't deliver anything like the same experience. I only wish they offered the M340i & M340d with RWD in the UK!

[GT9]

Chris5150 said:

Folks,

I'm seriously considering getting back into a large diesel lump, probably an M340d touring. All the reviews online say that there is very little to separate this from the M340i. The mountain of torque suits my driving style rather than the higher revving nature of the 'i'.

What do you all think is the future of diesel, say the next 5-10 years? Will they be taxed into oblivion even before the revised 2035 ban on new sales?

Any thoughts welcome and gratefully received.

As I'm sure you are probably aware, the issue with diesel cars is the NOx output.
The government committee/s that decide on these things are aware that Euro 5 and 6 diesels miss their NOx targets by around a factor of 5, i.e. 5 times worse than they are supposed to be.
There were two real-world studies both in Europe and and in Scotland at the end on the last decade were hundred of different cars were tested outside of lab conditions, both gave fairly similar results.
Some manufacturers are far worse than others, i.e. the French ones !, but legislation doesn't differentiate that way so all Euro 5 and 6 cars are treated the same, using the average of all results.
Petrol cars, on the other hand, were either at or below the target.
The only way to get average results down for cars already in use is to reduce speed limits, as the formation of NOx in diesels is related to average power output.
Power output for cruising increases non-linearly with speed due to aero drag.
One of the main reasons why we are facing all of these speed limit reduction all over the place is because the roadside measurements for NOx drop markedly with the speed limit.
The results of these NOx vs. speed limit studies are also now in circulation amongst policymakers.
Petrol cars don't really have a speed dependency for their NOX outputs, on top of the fact that they produce far less NOx on average anyway.
Basically, diesel is dragging it it down for all cars, and are likely to be the biggest target that future legislation will aim at.
As it stands, diesel cars produce about 5 times the NOx of a petrol car per mile, and about 10 times that of an EV for the partial contribution of grid-consumed fossil fuel used to produce the electricity for charging.
IMO we are unlikely to see different speed limits for different propulsion types, there would be too much of a stink kicked up.
In some other countries, they have actually gone down this route, with higher speed limits for EVs.
Can you imagine if that happened here...
Right, so what does that all mean.
Basically, if you want to drive a big diesel, and drive it fast, you are essentially persona non-grata in the eyes of our policymakers.
It is shame, the BMW is probably pretty good on NOx (relatively, but there is no way for it to be singled out as one of the good'uns, policywise.
You will just have to roll the dice I guess.

[Robertb]

Chris5150 said:

Folks,

I'm seriously considering getting back into a large diesel lump, probably an M340d touring. All the reviews online say that there is very little to separate this from the M340i. The mountain of torque suits my driving style rather than the higher revving nature of the 'i'.

What do you all think is the future of diesel, say the next 5-10 years? Will they be taxed into oblivion even before the revised 2035 ban on new sales?

Any thoughts welcome and gratefully received.

If you enjoy effortless torque, might an EV suit your daily use case?

To your question, I can't see there being a big retrospective tax via VED on existing diesel and petrol cars (political disaster), but I can certainly see an extension of the ULEZ arrangements in urban areas. I'll bet though that it will become a 'congestion charge' and applied to all private vehicles, ICE or EV.

I'd not bet against Labour reintroducing the fuel tax increases, as its only ever been postponed in each budget.

[MadriMan]

Clivey said:

I'd much rather pay a bit more to drive a decent straight six BMW than end-up with some miserable 4-banger hybrid (330e etc.) that doesn't deliver anything like the same experience. I only wish they offered the M340i & M340d with RWD in the UK!

Me too, RWD M340i would be perfect!

[CKY]

Clivey said:

I'd much rather pay a bit more to drive a decent straight six BMW than end-up with some miserable 4-banger hybrid (330e etc.) that doesn't deliver anything like the same experience. I only wish they offered the M340i & M340d with RWD in the UK!

100%, I was oblivious to those 330e things until one crawled past me at the weekend in near-silence. As soon as the engine kicked in it sounded as rough as a bear's arse, dreadful sounding 4 cylinder lump and not a patch on their 6 cylinders.

[D4rez]

New car wise most manufacturers are dropping their diesel offerings very quickly indeed (see BMW 5 series for example - no diesel at all) and diesel now has a minute share for cars, different story for vans. It will probably take a good 15 years to cycle out all of the diesel cars in the fleet and only then might it become scarce at pumps. So it will be less available and probably more expensive as the scale drops off.

In terms of city bans, these are likely to be linked to Euro 6D RDE so try and buy a car that meets this standard or stick to petrol if you want to minimise the risk of massive depreciation

[Triumph Man]

CKY said:

Clivey said:

I'd much rather pay a bit more to drive a decent straight six BMW than end-up with some miserable 4-banger hybrid (330e etc.) that doesn't deliver anything like the same experience. I only wish they offered the M340i & M340d with RWD in the UK!

100%, I was oblivious to those 330e things until one crawled past me at the weekend in near-silence. As soon as the engine kicked in it sounded as rough as a bear's arse, dreadful sounding 4 cylinder lump and not a patch on their 6 cylinders.

I thought to myself recently that I'd try to embrace the modern world, so I watched a youtube video of a roadtest of a Volvo S90 T8. Near 400bhp, cylinder count aside it seemed ideal. All was well on the video until the petrol engine fired up. My god it was a horrible, harsh, strained thing, that has no place in an executive car.

[anonymous-user]

My 2014 (non-compliant) diesel gets 60+ mpg & annual car tax just over £30

It’s great on the motorway & range is 700 miles +

I venture into ulez occasionally when clearing out mil’s old house, rather than getting the wife’s phev dirty!

I doubt tax will be increased, who knows.

I’ll get EV though when mine goes pop..

[keo]

I like diesel for my daily (20k a year mainly motorway) and I’d like a 340d touring next (rear wheel drive would be even better!.)

But it’s a lot of money to spend considering the depreciation 20k a year will do never mind if they get banned/ stupid tax on them.

Might just get a 330/335d for half the price. But I want the M340d!

[brillomaster]

I think diesel will be around for some time yet. There are millions of diesel cars on the road right now, and millions of happy diesel owners enjoying 50, 60 or 70mpg.

I like petrols, but id be less than pleased if i was forced to take a 30% reduction in mpg for my daily driver. Diesels are just better for big miles.

I cant see taxes for diesels specifically going up, itll be overall emissions - except now we're back blanket ved, so drive whatever car you like, pay the same.

The only thing that would sway me right now is low emission zones... but even at £12 a day to drive in london, i save that in fuel costs by driving a diesel rather than my petrol.

I feel sorry for those in the expanded ulez zones, forced to give up a perfectly good, 70mpg car and replace it with one that does half that. But luckily, hopefully, im not going to live in a ulez zone any time soon.

[raspy]

Clivey said:

I'd much rather pay a bit more to drive a decent straight six BMW than end-up with some miserable 4-banger hybrid (330e etc.) that doesn't deliver anything like the same experience. I only wish they offered the M340i & M340d with RWD in the UK!

550e is a 3 litre straight six plug in hybrid, as well as X5 45e (and now 50e) and same with 745e and 750e. I don't know what all the whining is on here about hybrids.

[swamp]

HazzaT said:

I think there'll be more ULEZ-type things brought into cities but I don't think there'll be a blanket diesel tax or anything like that. If anything there's more likely to be creating electric only zones than targetting diesels specifically.

I definitely see the appeal of going for the diesel though, the lump in my 330d is much nicer for daily use than yet another 2.0 turbo 4

The Uxbridge by election has (hopefully) frightened a lot of politicians away from implementing new ULEZ-type schemes. Personally I think diesel will be good for another 20 years.