Performance car market to crash soon?
Discussion
Something i've just been thinking about really.
With the way fuel prices are going and the belief that we could be seeing £2/litre by the end of the year, do you think that it won't be long before all the performance cars we drive become worthless?
People won't be able to afford to run them anymore if petrol keeps going the way it is, it isn't going to take more than a few years for it to be at a price that people cannot afford to run these cars. Even though some people on here are die hard petrolheads, would never sell their pride and joy whatever the cost, if you get to the point where petrol is ridiculously expensive, dealers etc are not going to give much for an uneconomical car because noone apart from a select few like ourselves will be wanting to buy them.
With the way fuel prices are going and the belief that we could be seeing £2/litre by the end of the year, do you think that it won't be long before all the performance cars we drive become worthless?
People won't be able to afford to run them anymore if petrol keeps going the way it is, it isn't going to take more than a few years for it to be at a price that people cannot afford to run these cars. Even though some people on here are die hard petrolheads, would never sell their pride and joy whatever the cost, if you get to the point where petrol is ridiculously expensive, dealers etc are not going to give much for an uneconomical car because noone apart from a select few like ourselves will be wanting to buy them.
I think in certain areas of the market it will, the more mass produced, higher volume not fully exotic stuff will maybe depreciate more as people who have blagged their way into the market feel the pinch in all areas and start dumping the cars or have them repossessed
I think the true exotica or high maintenance stuff that's always required deep pockets and effort to maintain the owners will use them less but will be able to continue to own and maintain so the market won't suffer
I think the true exotica or high maintenance stuff that's always required deep pockets and effort to maintain the owners will use them less but will be able to continue to own and maintain so the market won't suffer
IMO, any over 20k "proper" car will be immune - older ferraris, 911's, Lotuses etc. Hell, even thirsty beasts like the top TVR's. At typical mileage, fuel isn't the major cost of a lot of these cars.
However, I think that the "lesser" performance market could be hurt badly - older Boxsters, big engined saloons (S4's, M3's et) will get hurt badly, and wafty barges hammered terribly - for a lot of people these are sporty daily drivers and so the mileage is higher, and fuel is a large proportion of the running / ownership costs.
Even though I am sure of this, the missus car will still remain as a lesser sports car - we can't house 3 cars, and I couldn't face life with an econobox and a small engined derv repmobile at the weekends.
However, I think that the "lesser" performance market could be hurt badly - older Boxsters, big engined saloons (S4's, M3's et) will get hurt badly, and wafty barges hammered terribly - for a lot of people these are sporty daily drivers and so the mileage is higher, and fuel is a large proportion of the running / ownership costs.
Even though I am sure of this, the missus car will still remain as a lesser sports car - we can't house 3 cars, and I couldn't face life with an econobox and a small engined derv repmobile at the weekends.
jimbobsimmonds said:
IMHO opinion it's happening already. Look what you can pick up for £5 or 6K now...
Never mind £6K, you can get some pretty nice metal even for £2k or less now, probably because they're unwanted for having high running costs and poor fuel economy, stuff like 6 and 8 cylinder BMWs and the like.I do think though that the manufacturers are going to have to work hard to produce performance cars that return ever increasing fuel economy otherwise there will end up being a very small market for such cars. I'm pretty sure they'll rise to the challenge, in fact, you'd argue they already are - stuff like the Cooper S, although I dont like them, they do seem capable of pretty amazing MPG considering the performance. On the down side though, I think stuff is becoming too clinical now - stuff like high revving screamers and big lusty NA engines are slowly but surely dying off, only to be replaced by more bland turbocharged units.
The value of current stuff that does very poor MPG will just keep heading south IMO.
That said, I'll be in no hurry to get rid of the E36 - it can return mid 30's MPG if I really try, and considering how much I'd have to spend getting a replacement that did more MPG, it's not really worth it.
The top end of the market is relatively immune from fuel price - if you own a £100K+ classic and only drive it 2,000 miles a year then you aren't going to worry about petrol.
The crash may come in things that are not massively expensive but drink a lot (Scoobies, RX-8s, stuff like that) which will drop fast.
The crash may come in things that are not massively expensive but drink a lot (Scoobies, RX-8s, stuff like that) which will drop fast.
It already pretty much has with RX-8s. Have you seen their prices now?
For reference, I traded an 05 RX-8 with mileage in the low 30ks for a bit over 7,000 in May of 09. Compared to that they've absolutely tanked - 4k will get you a fairly sterling example now with the bottom of the market being a fair bit lower again.
For reference, I traded an 05 RX-8 with mileage in the low 30ks for a bit over 7,000 in May of 09. Compared to that they've absolutely tanked - 4k will get you a fairly sterling example now with the bottom of the market being a fair bit lower again.
The cost of insurance is keeping me out of large engined cars. For the mileage I do, petrol isn't a concern.
My LS400 used to return about 21MPG and filling it was a non-issue. Insurance premiums for that car have tripled in just over a year therefore I no longer have one and am unlikely to ever own another.
My LS400 used to return about 21MPG and filling it was a non-issue. Insurance premiums for that car have tripled in just over a year therefore I no longer have one and am unlikely to ever own another.
From a personal viewpoint I'm paying a significant chunk of my modest earnings on running my wee beastie. I'm cushioned from the depreciation curve to a certain extent by no longer commuting every day (thus racking up the miles) and my car sits in the more exotic segment. It's no Veyron but it's no M3 either. Like a lot of other "exotic" cars mine is produced in sufficiently low numbers to help preserve the value. And then there's the attrition rate. They seem to attract trees at the hands of drivers of all nationalities...
All of that to one side though I love my car and won't give it up. Petrol prices are almost irrelevant to me. I still want to drive to see my friends and family so I still do. Less than before? Yes but not so little that I might as well buy a Smart car. I live so far away from some of my friends and my family in particular that you can do anything you want to petrol prices and the train is still so inconvenient and expensive that the car comes out on top. That for me is the crux of the matter. There really isn't a credible alternative to the car for my journeys
As has been said though I do see M3s, RS4s etc taking a spanking on their value compared to new. However I do also see people gleefully posting up they've scooped a bargain for weekend and track use. A lot of the cars being produced today in the performance segment of the market seem to be lasting well and so proving affordable for people that do low miles out of the warranty period. It's not just Paul Garlick that runs a barge and I'm sure there are many on here who have adopted the snotter + track b
h formula
I think it was Jay Leno who suggested that the motor car saved the horse for leisure use and that, given time, the eco-cars would do the same for the more interesting stuff. I think he's right because eventually if pushed hard enough I reckon I could be forced to adopt a snotter because of fuel prices. That's because I don't see public transport improving for a considerable period of time. And all the while the motorist is being punished...
Anyway that's my tuppence worth!
All of that to one side though I love my car and won't give it up. Petrol prices are almost irrelevant to me. I still want to drive to see my friends and family so I still do. Less than before? Yes but not so little that I might as well buy a Smart car. I live so far away from some of my friends and my family in particular that you can do anything you want to petrol prices and the train is still so inconvenient and expensive that the car comes out on top. That for me is the crux of the matter. There really isn't a credible alternative to the car for my journeys
As has been said though I do see M3s, RS4s etc taking a spanking on their value compared to new. However I do also see people gleefully posting up they've scooped a bargain for weekend and track use. A lot of the cars being produced today in the performance segment of the market seem to be lasting well and so proving affordable for people that do low miles out of the warranty period. It's not just Paul Garlick that runs a barge and I'm sure there are many on here who have adopted the snotter + track b
h formulaI think it was Jay Leno who suggested that the motor car saved the horse for leisure use and that, given time, the eco-cars would do the same for the more interesting stuff. I think he's right because eventually if pushed hard enough I reckon I could be forced to adopt a snotter because of fuel prices. That's because I don't see public transport improving for a considerable period of time. And all the while the motorist is being punished...
Anyway that's my tuppence worth!
Jasandjules said:
As others have said, the "cheaper" cars with bad fuel economy may well suffer but the higher end cars won't. People will simply use them more as weekend toys if push comes to shove and just use the snotter for the main driving.
Weekend toys are becoming expensive. Increasing tax and NI rates squeezing income, continuous insurance & sorn, higher VED and insurance make them expensive to own and difficult to use for the odd weekend. Thats the pressure, in addition to petrol.At a certain point the costs close in to any car.
For me when I sold my lovely 911 it was a combination of not using it much, needing the space, and wanting to save the annual tax, insurance, servicing etc.
I can imagine there are many people thinking how much they really need their supercar now, and as the recession deepens they'll be thinking even harder. It's not as if you can't buy back in later anyway - with the amount saved in tx/ins/service/interest costs even an appreciating car stops to make sense sometimes.
For me when I sold my lovely 911 it was a combination of not using it much, needing the space, and wanting to save the annual tax, insurance, servicing etc.
I can imagine there are many people thinking how much they really need their supercar now, and as the recession deepens they'll be thinking even harder. It's not as if you can't buy back in later anyway - with the amount saved in tx/ins/service/interest costs even an appreciating car stops to make sense sometimes.
Globs said:
..
I can imagine there are many people thinking how much they really need their supercar now, and as the recession deepens they'll be thinking even harder. It's not as if you can't buy back in later anyway - with the amount saved in tx/ins/service/interest costs even an appreciating car stops to make sense sometimes.
I can imagine there are many people thinking how much they really need their supercar now, and as the recession deepens they'll be thinking even harder. It's not as if you can't buy back in later anyway - with the amount saved in tx/ins/service/interest costs even an appreciating car stops to make sense sometimes.
except for very few limited edition cars 964RS/993RS and maybe the 996RS
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